Russia tests Nudol ASAT system

[B. Hendrickx]

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Dec-2020/0040.html

A navigation warning points to a possible Nudol test from Plesetsk scheduled for December 16 (back-up date December 20). So far all Nudol tests seem to have been aimed at phantom targets in space. No reason to assume this one will be any different, but one never knows...

[B. Hendrickx]

US Space Command confirms that the Nudol test took place today. It is clear from the statement that no satellites were targeted. The statement also mentions two other Russian ASAT systems, the objects ejected from Kosmos-2521 and Kosmos-2543 in 2017 and 2020 and the Peresvet mobile laser system.

https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2448334/russia-tests-direct-ascent-anti-satellite-missile/

Russia tests direct-ascent anti-satellite missile
By U.S. Space Command Public Affairs Office

“Russia has conducted a test of a direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) missile. Russia publicly claims it is working to prevent the transformation of outer space into a battlefield, yet at the same time Moscow continues to weaponize space by developing and fielding on-orbit and ground-based capabilities that seek to exploit U.S. reliance on space-based systems,” said U.S. Army Gen. James Dickinson, U.S. Space Command commander.

“Russia’s persistent testing of these systems demonstrates threats to U.S. and allied space systems are rapidly advancing. The establishment of U.S. Space Command as the nation’s unified combatant command for space and U.S. Space Force as the primary branch of the U.S. Armed Forces that presents space combat and combat support capabilities to U.S. Space Command could not have been timelier. We stand ready and committed to deter aggression and defend our Nation and our allies from hostile acts in space.”

The United States is concerned by Russia’s continued development and deployment of several types of ground-based and space-based ASAT weapons. These actions are contrary to Russia’s diplomatic and public stance against the weaponization of space. Specifically, Russia has demonstrated two completely different types of space weapons.

The first type of kinetic weapon is a DA-ASAT system capable of destroying satellites in low Earth orbit, which they have tested multiple times. If this weapon is tested on an actual satellite or used operationally, it will cause a large debris field that could endanger commercial satellites and irrevocably pollute the space domain.

The second type is a co-orbital ASAT, a space-based weapon system, which demonstrated an on-orbit kinetic weapon in 2017 and again in 2020. Furthermore, in March 2018, President Putin announced the development of a ground-based laser system for use by the Russian Space Forces, which the Russian military acknowledged as a “combat laser system.” This pattern of behavior would be considered potentially threatening in any other domain.

“Russia has made space a warfighting domain by testing space-based and ground-based weapons intended to target and destroy satellites," Dickinson added. "This fact is inconsistent with Moscow’s public claims that Russia seeks to prevent conflict in space. Space is critical to all nations. It is a shared interest to create the conditions for a safe, stable, and operationally sustainable space environment. The demands on the space systems continue in this time of crisis where global logistics, transportation, and communications are key to defeating the COVID-19 pandemic.”

[B. Hendrickx]

Another test of the Nudol anti-satellite system is possibly scheduled for May 29.

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2021/0142.html

https://i.postimg.cc/pXH3nNZR/LAPTEV-SEA.jpg

Looks familiar...if we see a further Nav warn for POMORSKY STRAIT
CHYOSHSKAYA GUBA , then this suggests another  satellite missile test as  last December...

https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2448334/russia-tests-direct-ascent-anti-satellite-missile/

240530 UTC MAY 21
NAVAREA XX 64/21
LAPTEV SEA.
CHARTS RUS 10102, 10104.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 1600 TO 1800 UTC 29 MAY
IN AREA TEMPORARILY DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY:
83-00.0N 099-00.0E, 83-00.0N 137-00.0E, 77-10.0N 137-00.0E,
76-00.0N 134-30.0E, 77-20.0N 121-40.0E, 77-50.0N 109-40.0E,
78-20.0N 106-50.0E, 78-40.0N 106-50.0E, 80-30.0N 099-00.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 291900 UTC MAY 21.=
NNNN

[B. Hendrickx]

The expected second NOTAM has now appeared, leaving little doubt that a Nudol launch is scheduled from Plesetsk on May 29 between 16.00 and 18.00 UTC.

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2021/0146.html

..and here is the follow up.

Same window as the Laptev Nav Warn and same pattern as previous missile
tests.

https://i.postimg.cc/Yq79fCpy/C-GUBA.jpg

251730 UTC MAY 21
NAVAREA XX 65/21
BARENTS * SEA AND CHYOSHSKAYA GUBA.
CHART RUS * 10100.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 1600 TO 1800 UTC 29 MAY
NAVIGATION PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS DANGEROUS
OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
68-33-09N 047-36-22E, 68-20-31N 048-45-25E,
67-01-42N 046-43-04E, 67-13-00N 045-51-00E,
67-53-06N 046-50-32E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 291900 UTC MAY 21.=
NNNN


The question now is will this be another dummy test , or considering the
nature of the two hour window , a "live" target ?

[satcomopsuk]

Pretty sure this will have taken place , although no mention in the media as yet.
No amended / replacement Nav warnings have appeared  .

[satcomopsuk]

Still no news about the possible ASAT Launch last month.
Lets see what happens with this one...

SLICBM  today?

[owais.usmani]

Still no news about the possible ASAT Launch last month.
Lets see what happens with this one...

SLICBM  today?

https://t.me/warbolts/421

Today or tomorrow (June 10 or 11, from 06:00 to 12:00 UTC) an ICBM is scheduled to be launched from the Plesetsk test site. The allotment of zones for the fall fields suggests the launch of the 15A28 "Sarmat" ICBM.

[satcomopsuk]

Still no news of the test back on May 29th , however this may be why...

[satcomopsuk]

Be interested to hear of any media reports later if this test goes ahead.

[B. Hendrickx]

On June 28,  the TASS news agency quoted a source in the military-industrial complex as saying that “the newest unique ballistic missile” developed by the MIT Corporation had been successfully tested from Plesetsk in mid-June. The MIT Corporation develops solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (MIT stands for “Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology”).

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/11767013

The exact launch date was not given. Navigation warnings related to missile launches (possibly from Plesetsk) were issued for the Kara Sea for June 10-11 and the Barents Sea for June 14-18.

Russian analysts have focused on two possible candidates for the mid-June launch:

- a slightly improved version of the Yars ICBM which has been under development since 2019 under a project known as Osina-RV. All that is known about this comes from an environmental impact assessment report quoted by the “Warbolts” telegram channel on June 15.  According to the report, the missile was to undergo two test flights from Plesetsk in 2021-2022, with the simulated warhead impacting in the Kura test range on the Kamchatka peninsula. The person who posted this information did add that the first of those flights was expected no earlier than August 2021. 

- a missile known as Sirena-M, presumably a Yars modified to serve as a so-called “command missile”, which in a doomsday scenario would be launched over Russian territory to broadcast launch codes to all remaining nuclear-tipped missiles in the absence of a command structure.  In  December 2019,  Deputy Defense Minister Aleksei Krivoruchko said it would be delivered “before 2025”.


Another possibility, not considered by the Russian analysts, is that it was the first test flight of a new direct-ascent anti-satellite missile that uses the same infrared homing system as Nudol. This missile has never been mentioned in the Russian press, but its existence can be deduced from procurement documentation published in 2016-2017. I presented the evidence for that in Reply 8 in this thread.

Nudol began in 2009 with a contract awarded by the Ministry of Defense to Almaz-Antei (the prime contractor), which in turn assigned most of the development work on the missile (14A042)  to OKB Novator. Test flights from Plesetsk began in 2014. On July 12, 2013, Almaz-Antei got a contract for another missile project, which it subcontracted to the MIT Corporation. Procurement documents show that it is supposed to carry the same infrared homing system as Nudol’s 14A042 missile. This system, designated 14Sh129 (14Ш129), was jointly developed by KB Tochmash and the State Institute of Applied Optics (GIPO).

The rocket is likely based on one of the MIT Corporation’s ICBMs and should have a much longer range than 14А042, targeting satellites in higher orbits. Coincidentally or not, the project began just two months after a test flight of what is believed to have been a Chinese direct-ascent ASAT system capable of knocking out satellites in high orbits. While inheriting technology from Nudol, the larger ASAT missile is possibly being developed under another name. In November 2017,  a Russian defense official speaking before the upper house of parliament was reported to have mentioned a “mobile anti-satellite strike system” with the name  “Rudolf”, but this most likely was a misspelling of the similarly sounding name “Nudol” (Rudolf is a German name with no connection to Russian culture or geography).

The only procurement documentation that I’ve seen for the MIT Corporation project was for work ordered by KB Tochmash. The latest of this appeared in late 2017. Another participant in the project is NPTsAP (the former Pilyugin design bureau), which develops flight control systems for launch vehicles. In December 2017, it signed a contract under this project for the delivery of helium leak detectors, as can be determined from this court documentation published in 2019.

https://kad.arbitr.ru/Card/e2f6bf57-b8eb-4ec1-a7a1-8a9c812ebc24

The absence of publicly available documentation in recent years does not necessarily mean that the project has been canceled. Considering the fact that it was started in 2013 and is likely based on existing ICBM technology, it could very well have reached the test flight stage by now. I should stress that there is no specific evidence to assume that the mid-June test was related to this project  (actually, one might have expected a public reaction from the Pentagon if it was). It’s just a third possibility besides the two considered by Russian analysts.     

It’s also worth noting that the MIT Corporation has been studying the possibility of reviving its Start-1 solid-fuel launch vehicle. This was a rocket derived from the Topol ICBM that launched a number of satellites from Plesetsk and Svobodnyy between  1993 and 2006. MIT’s director Yuri Solomonov mentioned the possible resurrection of the project in interviews in 2018 and 2020.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3826140
https://tass.ru/interviews/9886891

Also see these recent patents:
https://yandex.ru/patents/doc/RU2698838C1_20190830
https://edrid.ru/rid/219.017.da1b.html

Judging from various papers, MIT has also been doing research on a new solid-fuel upper stage, which it has considered for use on the Soyuz-2 rocket. However, there are no clear indications that any of this work is in any way related to the ASAT missile.

[owais.usmani]

https://twitter.com/Skyrocket71/status/1460226586402246667

[weedenbc]

Do we have any data to connect this potential test to the Nudol? Was there any associated NOTAM over the weekend?

This seems like a really small amount of debris for a DA-ASAT test, so I would suspect it was more likely a co-orbital test (unless we start to get reports of more debris). Were any of the Burevestnik satellites in the area?

[Targeteer]

CAPCOM has mentioned "debris field" passage with stable ISS pressures and gave the time of the next passage so...

[eeergo]

FWiW:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Skyrocket71/status/1460251016557998085

If true though, it would be one of the, if not the, most reckless and stupid ASAT ever.

[RotoSequence]

If true though, it would be one of the, if not the, most reckless and stupid ASAT ever.

With the stuff going on around Ukraine, I interpret it as telegraphing of intent.

[satcomopsuk]

Not seen any Nav Warnings coming down off the satellites and Area  XIX seems clear other than the Kourou Launch/Debris notification

[weedenbc]

Purported NOTAM warning here, not sure how valid it is:

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1460243765935976454

[satcomopsuk]

The area defined there is interesting .... not the same as I have reported in the past and we usually see two areas active .
Curious to see how this pans out.

[weedenbc]

NOTAM text here:
https://t.me/warbolts/707


Военно-болтовой
Военно-болтовой
Еще один пуск о котором промолчат Роскосмос с МО РФ. С Плесецка в период с 06:00 по 18:00 UTC, 23 или 24 июня, районы падения ассоциируются с «Нудоль». Текст уведомлений: HYDROARC 110/21 BARENTS SEA. RUSSIA. DNC 22. 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING…
Еще один пуск из этой серии. Что за изделие испытывается достоверно не известно до сих пор, но эксперты связывают его с "Нудоль". Закрытия в целом повторяют ранее объявляемые, период действия 15/11/2021 02:00 (UTC) - 17/11/2021 05:00 (UTC). Из интересного, в данных NOTAM на Плесецк и Чёшскую губу указан номер телефона некоего Чирикова.

HYDROARC 316/21
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING,
0200Z TO 0500Z DAILY 15 AND 17 NOV
IN AREA BOUND BY
68-33.1N 047-36.2E, 68-20.3N 048-45.3E,
67-01.4N 046-43.0E, 67-13.0N 045-51.0E.
67-53.1N 046-50.3E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 170600Z NOV 21.//

Authority: NAVAREA XX 187/21 101728Z NOV 21.
Date: 101800Z NOV 21
Cancel: 17060000 Nov 21

HYDROARC 314/21
ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 27.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
150200Z TO 150500Z NOV, ALTERNATE
170200Z TO 170500Z NOV IN AREA BOUND BY
83-00N 099-00E, 83-00N 137-00E,
77-10N 137-00E, 76-00N 134-30E,
77-20N 121-40E, 77-50N 109-40E,
78-20N 106-50E, 78-40N 106-50E,
80-30N 099-00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 170600Z NOV 21.//

Authority: NAVAREA XX 184/21 091732Z NOV 21.
Date: 091740Z NOV 21
Cancel: 17060000 Nov 21

NOTAM

Ь9260/21 НОТАМН
Щ)УЛАА/ЩРТЦА/ИЖ/БО/В/000/999/6528С04407В205
А)УЛАА
Б)2111150200 Ц)2111170500 Д)15 17 0200-0500
Е)ЗАПРЕЩЕНО ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ ВОЗДУШНОГО ПРОСТРАНСТВА:
1. РАЙОН: 631600С0412300В-625200С0420200В-624000С0412200В-622900С0402500В-624000С0394200В-624800С0393200В- 625700С0401800В-631600С0412300В
2. РАЙОН: 683309С0473622В-682031С0484525В-670142С0464304В-671300С0455100В-675306С0465032В-683309С0473622В (ВР6895 КОНТАКТНЫЕ ДАННЫЕ: 4ИРИКОВ +74956966267).
Ф)ЗЕМЛЯ Г)1500 М УР.ЗЕМЛИ

Ь9243/21 НОТАМН
Щ)УУЬЬ/ЩРТЦА/ИЖ/БО/В/000/999/7956С12247В278
А)УЛММ УНКЛ УХММ Б)2111150200 Ц)2111170500 Д)15 17 0200-0500
Е)ОБЬЯВЛЕН РАЙОН ВРЕМЕННО ОПАСНЫМ ДЛЯ ПОЛЕТОВ ВС:830000С0990000В-803000С0990000В-784000С1065000В-782000С1065000В-775000С1094000В-772000С1214000В-760000С1343000В-771000С1370000В- 830000С1370000В-830000С0990000В.
Ф)ПОВЕРХНОСТЬ Г)НЕОГРАНИ4ЕННО
t.me/warbolts
/707
1.9Kviewsedited 
Nov 13 at 04:22

[satcomopsuk]

Coincidentally[ ]  this has just shown up on Inmarsat

151730 UTC NOV 21
NAVAREA XX 192/21
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. SPECIAL ACTIVITIES 19 AND 23 TO 26 NOV 0600 TO 2100 UTC
IN AREAS DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY:
A. 72-18.0N 049-32.0E, 72-03.0N 050-30.0E,
68-53.0N 043-25.0E, 69-06.0N 042-32.0E.
B. 76-26.0N 055-22.0E, 76-16.0N 056-46.0E,
72-25.0N 050-35.0E, 72-32.0N 049-25.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 262200 UTC NOV 21.=
NNNN