Author Topic: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system  (Read 80011 times)

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #120 on: 05/14/2022 07:56 pm »
More Kosmos-1408 ASAT debris cataloged as 52514-52532, 52571-73, 52590-94.  Unclear what the gaps are being reserved for 52533-570, 52574-89; not quite enough space for Starlink 4-13.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1525340207494701056

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #121 on: 05/19/2022 02:47 pm »
The debris that may prompt an ISS avoidance maneuver Thursday is from the Russian ASAT test last 11/15 that destroyed a defunct satellite, officials confirm; more tracking data is expected overnight that should determine whether an avoidance maneuver is necessary or not..

https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/1527098103811166209

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #122 on: 06/13/2022 11:06 pm »
A patent for a transporter erector launcher (TEL) published in 2019 has recently been linked by several analysts to Nudol.

https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU187952U1_20190325.pdf

The first three attachments are taken from this patent. The official patent holder is the Ministry of Defense, but the authors can be identified as working for the Design Bureau of Special Machine Building (KBSM), which is known to have a role in developing Nudol’s TEL (based on some of its annual reports). There is no specific reference to Nudol in the patent description. Presumably, the conclusion that this is the Nudol TEL is based on the fact that it looks identical to a drawing of a TEL with two missile launch tubes that appeared in a 2015 calendar of Almaz-Antei, Nudol’s prime contractor (see attachment 4). This has been interpreted by some Russian analysts as showing the Nudol TEL, although that has never been confirmed.

This is something I posted in this thread in early February  (see Reply 112, I've copied the same attachments here). It now looks like this patent indeed describes the transporter erector launcher used by Nudol. Exactly the same TEL is depicted in two other patents (with the same authors) that are linked to Nudol in an inspection report of the Federal Service for Intellectual Property, published after an inspection of the Design Bureau of Special Machine Building (KBSM) (a subcontractor for Nudol) on October 4, 2021. The report is available via these links:
https://prokuratura.top/index.php?erpid=002104897929
https://www.list-org.com/company/5797

The two patents, which describe various elements of the TLE, are here:
https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2620007C2_20170522.pdf
https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2629763C2_20170901.pdf
(English abstracts included).

This also means that the TEL shown in a calendar of Almaz-Antei (see attachment 4) is indeed the one for Nudol, as has long been suspected, but could never be confirmed.

The vehicle seen is the 12-wheeled MZKT-79291 of the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT). This was reportedly first ordered by the MIT Corporation for its RS-26 Rubezh missile, a lightweight two-stage intercontinental missile, the development of which has now been suspended. The MZKT-79291 is capable of carrying a maximum load of 50 tons. In its configuration for Nudol it has two missile launch tubes. The mass of the launch tubes is not known, but this does imply that the launch mass of Nudol's 14A042 rocket is probably somewhere in the 15-20 ton range.     

So far no pictures or video of Nudol are publicly available. The numerous websites that do claim to have them are wrong. The confusion stems from the fact that Nudol (a dedicated ASAT system based at Plesetsk) continues to be mixed up with A-235, the next-generation anti-ballistic missile defense system for the Moscow region. 

In the same post last February I mentioned another report published after an inspection of OKB Novator (the lead developer of Nudol, but also of various ABM systems).

Quote
Incidentally, the inspection report for OKB Novator mentions something called “103T6/Novator”. This probably is a new anti-missile project of OKB Novator. The only other place where 103T6 appears is the 2020 annual report of PAO Radiofizika, which probably develops radar systems in support of this project. Possibly, this is supposed to become the medium-range component of the upgraded A-235 ABM system to defend the Moscow region against missile attacks.

What likely will become the system’s short-range component, Novator’s 53T6M, has been undergoing test flights for about a decade. The long-range component is probably supposed to become the MIT Corporation’s Aerostat/106T6 missile (which possibly has an added ASAT capability).

103T6/Novator showed up again in procurement documentation last month:
http://zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/common-info.html?regNumber=32211388520
(the link does not work outside Russia)

The documents contain information on a contract awarded under the project by NPO Iskra in Perm, which builds solid-fuel rocket motors, including the two stages of Nudol's 14042 rocket (as a subcontractor to OKB Novator). The only valuable thing that can be learned from the documents is that the 103T6 project officially started on December 1, 2021 with a contract awarded by the Ministry of Defense to the Almaz-Antei Concern. It is clear that OKB Novator (part of Almaz-Antei) is in charge of the development, with NPO Iskra again acting as a subcontractor. The index 103T6 strongly suggests that this missile will become an element of A-235 (possibly its medium-range component). It is not impossible that this is something derived from Nudol's 14A042, but adapted for an ABM role.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #123 on: 07/21/2022 04:59 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1550161115979579395

Quote
ASAP’s Mark Sirangelo says the ISS received 681 conjunction notifications through June 1 of this year; 505 linked to Russian ASAT test. Number of conjunctions has increased “by multiples” in recent years.

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #124 on: 07/28/2022 10:50 am »
#SpaceDebris update from Russia's 15 Nov 2021 DA-ASAT test. As of 25 July 2022, 1774 objects have been cataloged w 1086 having already decayed. 419 objects pose a potential risk to human space flight (i.e., geometric intersection possible) and 37 of the fragments are "lost".

https://twitter.com/shell_jim/status/1551743824862388225

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #125 on: 08/07/2022 03:43 pm »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
August 07, 2022
1784 objects cataloged
1118 decayed
510 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1556287646103703556

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #126 on: 08/10/2022 02:43 am »
Starlink satellites encounter Russian ASAT debris squalls.

by Jeff Foust — August 9, 2022.

LOGAN, Utah — Debris from a Russian antisatellite weapon demonstration that caused “squalls” of close approaches to satellites earlier this year is now affecting a new series of Starlink satellites.

During a presentation at a Secure World Foundation event during the Small Satellite Conference here Aug. 8, Dan Oltrogge, director of integrated operations at COMSPOC, said his company found a “conjunction squall” affecting Starlink satellites Aug. 6, with a spike in the number of close approaches of debris from the former Cosmos 1408 satellite.

That debris, created when a Russian direct-ascent ASAT destroyed Cosmos 1408 in a November 2021 test, is in an orbit that lines up with satellites in sun-synchronous orbit. COMSPOC found earlier this year that this created surges of close approaches, or conjunctions, as the satellites run head-on into the debris.

In the Aug. 6 event, Oltrogge said there were more than 6,000 close approaches, defined as being within 10 kilometers, involving 841 Starlink satellites, about 30% of the constellation. It’s unclear how many, if any, of the satellites had to maneuver to avoid collisions.

This conjunction squall was exacerbated by a new group of Starlink satellites. SpaceX launched the first set of “Group 3” Starlink satellites July 10 from Vandenberg Space Force Base into polar orbit, followed by a second set July 22. A third batch of Group 3 satellites is scheduled to launch Aug. 12.

Those satellites are in similar orbits to the remote sensing satellites in sun-synchronous orbit whose orbits lined up earlier this year with the ASAT debris, causing conjunction squalls. “It’s the very orbit that’s put at risk by the ASAT,” Oltrogge said.

SpaceX has long emphasized the ability of its Starlink satellites to autonomously maneuver to avoid conjunctions. The company said that, between December 2021 and May 2022, Starlink satellites performed nearly 7,000 collision avoidance maneuvers, of which 1,700 were linked to Russian ASAT debris.

While SpaceX may be able to manage those conjunctions with its technology, it may be more difficult for other operators of satellite constellations. “If you didn’t have that automated system taking care of a spike like this, it could be really challenging to work it though,” he said.

Those conjunction squalls will subside over time as the debris decays. However, Oltrogge said that may only shift the risk to other orbits, notably the International Space Station. “It’s going to put ISS and others at risk.”

https://spacenews.com/starlink-satellites-encounter-russian-asat-debris-squalls/

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #127 on: 08/14/2022 01:16 pm »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
August 14, 2022
1784 objects cataloged
1132 decayed
652 still in orbit
539 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1558775886857609219

Offline Rondaz

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Offline Star One

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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #130 on: 08/31/2022 12:26 pm »
Allegedly this a PL-19 / NUDOL ASAT test launch:

This is not Nudol. The desert-like terrain seen in the video suggests this is an anti-missile test launch from Kapustin Yar or Sary Shagan. It's definitely not Plesetsk, which is the home base of Nudol. Many websites confuse Nudol with the A-235 anti-ballistic missile system to be installed around Moscow and incorrectly link test flights under A-235 to Nudol. This also seems to have happened here. We do know what Nudol looks like (see Reply 122), but so far the Russians have released no video of it.

Offline Star One

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #131 on: 08/31/2022 01:59 pm »
Allegedly this a PL-19 / NUDOL ASAT test launch:

This is not Nudol. The desert-like terrain seen in the video suggests this is an anti-missile test launch from Kapustin Yar or Sary Shagan. It's definitely not Plesetsk, which is the home base of Nudol. Many websites confuse Nudol with the A-235 anti-ballistic missile system to be installed around Moscow and incorrectly link test flights under A-235 to Nudol. This also seems to have happened here. We do know what Nudol looks like (see Reply 122), but so far the Russians have released no video of it.
Thank you for the clarification.

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #132 on: 09/01/2022 09:45 am »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
September 01, 2022
1785 objects cataloged
1173 decayed
612 still in orbit
500 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1565266468438171648

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #133 on: 09/10/2022 01:05 am »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
September 09, 2022
1785 objects cataloged
1190 decayed
595 still in orbit
541 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1568207120666923010

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #134 on: 09/16/2022 11:14 am »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
September 16, 2022
1785 objects cataloged
1200 decayed
585 still in orbit
547 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1570728337261367299

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #135 on: 09/24/2022 11:42 am »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
September 24, 2022
1785 objects cataloged
1215 decayed
570 still in orbit
522 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1573633417606037504

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #136 on: 10/03/2022 10:45 am »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
October 03, 2022
1788 objects cataloged
1240 decayed
548 still in orbit
523 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1576847643430424576

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #137 on: 10/10/2022 02:47 pm »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
October 10, 2022
1788 objects cataloged
1267 decayed
521 still in orbit
503 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1579467246103322625

Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #138 on: 10/13/2022 11:10 am »
Borisov announced the Russian space debris tracking station in South Africa.

Borisov: a Russian ground station for tracking space debris will soon be opened in South Africa.

02:27 13.10.2022

BAIKONUR COSMODROME, Oct 13 - RIA Novosti. A Russian ground-based space debris tracking station in South Africa will be opened in the near future, Roscosmos CEO Yuri Borisov told reporters on Thursday.

"The space debris monitoring station is located on the territory of the satellite applications center of the South African National Space Agency. Commissioning work has been completed in general, trial observation sessions have been conducted. We will cut the ribbon in the near future," Borisov said.

Earlier, Roscosmos reported that the Precision Instrumentation Systems Research and Production Corporation (part of the state corporation) and the South African National Space Agency (SANSA) signed a contract to deploy a Russian space debris detection complex in South Africa at altitudes from 120 to 40 thousand kilometers. It was assumed that the station would be able to determine their angular coordinates and identify them with objects in the database.

The complex in South Africa should become the second of four specialized optoelectronic complexes being created for the Russian automated system for warning about dangerous situations in near-Earth outer space. The first one is installed in Brazil.

Prior to that, in South Africa, Russia had installed a Sazhen-TM no-question measuring system from the same manufacturer.

In November 2020, Yury Roy , CEO of the Precision Instrumentation Systems Research and Production Corporation, told RIA Novosti that South Africa was under pressure to prevent the installation of the Russian station, but the country did not succumb to the pressure. Initially, the space debris detection station was supposed to be installed back in 2019.

https://ria.ru/20221013/roskosmos-1823560621.html


Offline Rondaz

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #139 on: 10/23/2022 07:27 pm »
COSMOS 1408 ASAT OBJECTS
October 23, 2022
1788 objects cataloged
1297 decayed
491 still in orbit
455 due to decay within 1000 days
Decay dates predicted with SATEVO

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1584173185993674752

 

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