Author Topic: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system (Read 80009 times)

Rondaz · « **Reply #100 on:** 11/30/2021 08:59 pm »

Preliminary results of parsing the velocity changes of the debris objects as a result of the ASAT test. Of course, this is using current TLE's (2 weeks post-impact) so objects have been affected by atmospheric drag. Will see about leaving out objects under 400km or something.

https://twitter.com/Spacecomm_Joey/status/1465728316086923274

Rondaz · « **Reply #101 on:** 12/02/2021 02:48 pm »

21 more debris objects cataloged today from the Russian ASAT event - here is the updated Gabbard diagram. As usual, each object has a red dot for perigee height and blue dot for apogee height..

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1466420651615531010

Rondaz · « **Reply #102 on:** 12/03/2021 11:58 am »

Impact of the November 2021 Russian ASAT Weapon Test. Further discussion can be found here:

https://twitter.com/OuterSpaceInst/status/1466534198253023238

Blackstar · « **Reply #103 on:** 12/07/2021 10:18 pm »

https://spacenews.com/u-s-was-not-blindsided-by-russias-anti-satellite-test-say-officials/

U.S. was not blindsided by Russia’s anti-satellite test, say officials
by Sandra Erwin — December 5, 2021

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military for years has watched Russia’s attempts to demonstrate it could destroy a satellite with a ground-based weapon, so the Nov. 15 missile test that blew up a satellite in orbit did not come as a complete shock, officials said Dec. 4 at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

“These advances in capabilities are concerning, they are not a surprise,” Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations of U.S. Space Force, said during a panel discussion at the forum held at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in Simi Valley, California.

SNIP

Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) said Russia attempted to do this several times in recent years and failed, so it was predictable that they would keep trying until they scored a hit. “It’s part of a pattern,” said Cooper, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on strategic forces which oversees U.S. nuclear and space programs.

Rondaz · « **Reply #104 on:** 12/08/2021 11:05 am »

Updated Gabbard diagram for the Kosmos-1408 debris

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1468408839028584448

Rondaz · « **Reply #105 on:** 12/24/2021 10:27 am »

745 debris objects now cataloged from the Kosmos-1408/ASAT event; 23 have already reentered. Here's the latest Gabbard diagram (red: perigee; blue: apogee for each object)

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1474257260239073282

Rondaz · « **Reply #106 on:** 12/24/2021 10:30 am »

https://twitter.com/feline_cannon/status/1474262862730203140

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1474264661595930625

GWR64 · « **Reply #107 on:** 12/26/2021 09:06 pm »

Quote from: Rondaz on 12/24/2021 10:27 am

745 debris objects now cataloged from the Kosmos-1408/ASAT event; 23 have already reentered. Here's the latest Gabbard diagram (red: perigee; blue: apogee for each object)

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1474257260239073282

The NORAD 50000 passed very quickly.
The vast majority of the objects in the last few days are Kosmos 1408 fragments.
Whereby the NORAD 50000 is an very old Transtage upper stage.

If this continues + the mega-constellation launches, then will NORAD very soon no longer got by with 5 digits.
$:-\$

su27k · « **Reply #108 on:** 12/28/2021 03:30 am »

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1475565161784221706

Quote

Some new bits in this story. In an interview, Dmitry Rogozin indicates he's unhappy with all the "debris scattered across the orbit" from Russia's ASAT test and says its unlikely the Russian military will test-launch another one in the future.

Also - the State Department is considering calling for an antisatellite test moratorium, possibly during the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva next year, per two US officials.

A day before the ASAT test, senior NASA officials flew to Moscow to negotiate two key ISS agreements, meeting with Rogozin for dinner at one point. They echoed Nelson's condemnation of the test, and "it was a very productive discussion,” Cabana says.

Nelson strongly condemned the RU military's ASAT test, but speculated that his counterpart Rogozin didn't see it coming. Indeed, in the interview, Rogozin said Roscosmos wasn't consulted prior. But he added: “I’m not going to tell you everything I know.”

Rondaz · « **Reply #109 on:** 12/29/2021 02:47 am »

Now 807 debris objects cataloged from Kosmos-1408

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1476002054271340549

Rondaz · « **Reply #110 on:** 01/10/2022 11:34 pm »

@planet4589 Is a debris strike from the Russian ASAT test plausible as a cause of the #Sentinel1b malfunction, given the orbital parameters?

https://twitter.com/BrianKardon/status/1480683845930389504

Rondaz · « **Reply #111 on:** 01/10/2022 11:36 pm »

It's not impossible, but I don't see any change to the orbit, so there's no *active* reason to suspect a debris hit at this time. There are plenty of things that can break spontaneously inside a satellite without needing a debris hit.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1480687166338568194

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #112 on:** 02/02/2022 03:46 pm »

A patent for a transporter erector launcher (TEL) published in 2019 has recently been linked by several analysts to Nudol.

https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU187952U1_20190325.pdf

The first three attachments are taken from this patent. The official patent holder is the Ministry of Defense, but the authors can be identified as working for the Design Bureau of Special Machine Building (KBSM), which is known to have a role in developing Nudol’s TEL (based on some of its annual reports). There is no specific reference to Nudol in the patent description. Presumably, the conclusion that this is the Nudol TEL is based on the fact that it looks identical to a drawing of a TEL with two missile launch tubes that appeared in a 2015 calendar of Almaz-Antei, Nudol’s prime contractor (see attachment 4). This has been interpreted by some Russian analysts as showing the Nudol TEL, although that has never been confirmed.

The patent deals in particular with a thermal conditioning system that maintains the proper temperature and humidity inside the missile tubes. Unlike similar systems used on other TELs, this one remains active even after the missile tubes are placed into vertical position prior to launch.

There are several other patents that can be positively linked to Nudol. One, published in 2020, belongs to OKB Novator, the company that builds Nudol’s 14A042 rocket.

https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2728019C1_20200728.pdf

It deals with a mechanism that automatically deploys rudders and stabilizers on the first stage after the missile leaves its launch tube. Quite unusually, the patent actually refers to the 14A042 rocket. It briefly describes the mechanism used by 14A042 and then goes on to describe an improved version, but it is not certain if that will be used by Nudol as well. The most important thing that can be learned from this patent is that 14A042’s first stage is equipped with aerodynamic surfaces.

Four more patents are linked to Nudol on a website containing inspection reports of the Federal Service for Intellectual Property:
https://prokuratura.top/index.php?erpid=001900997076
(report published after an inspection of Almaz-Antei in December 2019)

https://prokuratura.top/index.php?erpid=002104897908
(report published after an inspection of OKB Novator in April 2021)

All these four patents are available online.

https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2507469C2_20140220.pdf
https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2492048C1_20130910.pdf
https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2467278C1_20121120.pdf

These three were published in 2012-2014 and are owned by researchers of Kompaniya Armoproekt and OAO Avangard. They contain very detailed technical descriptions of multi-layered housings of missile launch tubes made of composite materials. OAO Avangard’s role in building Nudol’s missile launch tubes was already known from some of its annual reports.

https://patents.s3.yandex.net/RU2759035C1_20211109.pdf

This is a patent written by OKB Novator researchers that was published last November. It describes a two-layer thermal coating made of composite materials to protect the metal surface of what are described as “hypersonic flying apparatuses” (obviously, without the connection made with Nudol in the inspection report it would be impossible to tell that this has anything to do with the project).

The coating is needed to protect the vehicle from the aerodynamic heating that it experiences when flying at high speeds through the dense layers of the atmosphere. The outer layer is an “erosion-resistant ablation layer made of a bulk-woven silica fabric impregnated with a polymer binder filled with refractory aluminum oxide particles”. The inner thermal insulation layer is made of “a polymer organosilicon binder with a filler made of glass microspheres filled with gas”. The coating has been tested in wind tunnels with simulated heat flows and also “during successful test flights”. Before last November’s intercept of Kosmos-1408, Nudol’s 14A042 missile had already performed at least 10 test flights from Plesetsk since 2014.

Incidentally, the inspection report for OKB Novator mentions something called “103T6/Novator”. This probably is a new anti-missile project of OKB Novator. The only other place where 103T6 appears is the 2020 annual report of PAO Radiofizika, which probably develops radar systems in support of this project. Possibly, this is supposed to become the medium-range component of the upgraded A-235 ABM system to defend the Moscow region against missile attacks.

What likely will become the system’s short-range component, Novator’s 53T6M, has been undergoing test flights for about a decade. The long-range component is probably supposed to become the MIT Corporation’s Aerostat/106T6 missile (which possibly has an added ASAT capability). Nudol has long been rumored to be part of A-235 as well (Wikipedia even claims that Nudol is just another name for the entire A-235 system). However, it is becoming ever more clear that Nudol is a dedicated anti-satellite system that has no relation whatsoever to A-235.

weedenbc · « **Reply #113 on:** 02/02/2022 04:37 pm »

Bart, great stuff as usual.

One clarification question - those patents for the "hypersonic flying apparatuses" refer to the missile body and not the launch tube or TEL, right?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #114 on:** 02/02/2022 07:07 pm »

Quote from: weedenbc on 02/02/2022 04:37 pm

Bart, great stuff as usual.

One clarification question - those patents for the "hypersonic flying apparatuses" refer to the missile body and not the launch tube or TEL, right?

Yes, that's right.

Comga · « **Reply #115 on:** 02/02/2022 10:43 pm »

Quote from: Rondaz on 11/30/2021 10:31 am

Gabbard diagram for the Russian ASAT test based on Space-Track TLEs for first 100 or so objects cataloged. Each object gets two dots: perigee (red) and apogee (blue)

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1465587994119880705

It would be neat if someone (Dr McDowell?) coukd make a GIF or video of these Gabbard diagrams to show the evolution with time.

Compare these the early one above to the more recent one below.
It is clear that the left end, short period debris with low perigees and apogees, is “bending down” and”stretching left” as their orbits decay from the exospheric drag.

It can be reasoned that for each of these detectable and trackable debris there are many smaller untrackable debris. Because they are smaller, it is likely their ballistic coefficients are lower and their decay faster. One can imagine that each apogee point on the graphs is the source of a mini-shower descending from it to the lower left, filling up that space on the diagrams.

eeergo · « **Reply #116 on:** 02/03/2022 08:12 am »

Quote from: Comga on 02/02/2022 10:43 pm

Quote from: Rondaz on 11/30/2021 10:31 am
Gabbard diagram for the Russian ASAT test based on Space-Track TLEs for first 100 or so objects cataloged. Each object gets two dots: perigee (red) and apogee (blue)

It would be neat if someone (Dr McDowell?) coukd make a GIF or video of these Gabbard diagrams to show the evolution with time.

Compare these the early one above to the more recent one below.
It is clear that the left end, short period debris with low perigees and apogees, is “bending down” and”stretching left” as their orbits decay from the exospheric drag.

It can be reasoned that for each of these detectable and trackable debris there are many smaller untrackable debris. Because they are smaller, it is likely their ballistic coefficients are lower and their decay faster. One can imagine that each apogee point on the graphs is the source of a mini-shower descending from it to the lower left, filling up that space on the diagrams.

They're following the usual decay pattern, at least qualitatively, illustrated previously here for a wider timespan and object class:

https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/ld4vlq/gabbard_diagram_animation_of_space_debris_since/

But there already are specific animations for the Kosmos-1408 debris such as:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6877126992156790784/

As a bonus, here's what the current distribution looks like in the other two spatial dimensions. A ring has formed and is spreading out laterally:

https://twitter.com/Itzalpean/status/1477803180624863234

Rondaz · « **Reply #117 on:** 02/18/2022 07:53 pm »

Here was my first attempt at the Russian ASAT plot - one object had a bad TLE set and it is obvious. Deleted it from the database and reran to make the plot I showed earlier. But there are still a few objects that look suspicious, these plots make them easy to spot..

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1494759889700278281

Rondaz · « **Reply #118 on:** 02/19/2022 02:05 am »

So much for this being a "clean" ASAT test

https://twitter.com/brianweeden/status/1494786322514522114

Rondaz · « **Reply #119 on:** 02/19/2022 01:10 pm »

OK this looks better. Couple of bugs fixed.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1494905004095909889