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Roscosmos 10-Year Budget Cut For Third Time
by
Rebel44
on 01 Dec, 2015 17:04
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#1
by
savuporo
on 01 Dec, 2015 17:14
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With the entire Russian space industry basically put on austerity program for foreseeable future, i bet there is a lot of top talent there looking for other venues - if it was possible to move.
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#2
by
Prettz
on 01 Dec, 2015 17:47
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It's such a shame. The Russians have (or at least had) so much fantastic technology that they're not able use, and humanity's space ambitions are poorer for it.
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#3
by
atomic
on 01 Dec, 2015 18:02
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With just 2.25b$ a year (minus inflation over 10 years and inflation in Russia was 15% per year the last year!) we will be lucky if Russia still has a manned space program in the year 2025. Assuming a constant nominal spending rate, the budget will effectively be only 870M$ in 10 years assuming an annual inflation of 10%.
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#4
by
Rebel44
on 01 Dec, 2015 18:22
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With just 2.25b$ a year (minus inflation over 10 years and inflation in Russia was 15% per year the last year!) we will be lucky if Russia still has a manned space program in the year 2025. Assuming a constant nominal spending rate, the budget will effectively be only 870M$ in 10 years assuming an annual inflation of 10%.
Yep, with that kind of money their space program will be limited to press statements....
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#5
by
EE Scott
on 01 Dec, 2015 18:30
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Perhaps if the price of oil could just rise back above $100/barrel and stay there for the next decade, this could be reversed. Otherwise it is a truly depressing situation.
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#6
by
Rebel44
on 01 Dec, 2015 18:31
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Perhaps if the price of oil could just rise back above $100/barrel and stay there for the next decade, this could be reversed. Otherwise it is a truly depressing situation.
I would prefer oil at $40, or lower, while I am saving for Tesla Model 3....
Russia can save its space program by redirecting some money from its military (which will never happen).
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#7
by
rocx
on 01 Dec, 2015 18:41
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And yet, the Russians regularly fly humans into orbit, which no other space agency does. That will change eventually, but it does show the wisdom of slowly improving an existing design instead of always starting from scratch.
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#8
by
francesco nicoli
on 01 Dec, 2015 19:19
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not going to happen. Russia is too much focused in showing to the world it is claiming back its empire (in fact, it is only preventing further collapse, but whatever) to spend into space programmes.
And, after all, the majority of Russian people is glad to exchange short term budget cuts with long term visions of bases on the moon, space elevators, mars landings, etc. After all, space is first and foremost about visions. If you are so lucky to have a people for which visions are just enough, why bother spending on rockets when you can spend on tanks?
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#9
by
savuporo
on 01 Dec, 2015 19:23
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I know its hard but, lets try and make the effort: keep this on subject of RSA budget and implications to space related topics, not oil prices or global politics. Otherwise, there is a section here for politics.
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#10
by
francesco nicoli
on 01 Dec, 2015 19:37
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well, you are right on the form, but not on the substance: global politics and especially collapse in oil prices are a fundamental part of the equation and likely the driver of the cut. We can keep them out of the discussion if so you wish, but then we will have not a lot to discuss either than saying "look, they cut the budget, pity".
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#11
by
Bubbinski
on 01 Dec, 2015 19:40
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If the Roscosmos budget is that constrained, would they try for more space tourist launches aboard Soyuz to generate income? And how would this affect post-ISS station plans?
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#12
by
Coastal Ron
on 01 Dec, 2015 19:50
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And yet, the Russians regularly fly humans into orbit, which no other space agency does. That will change eventually, but it does show the wisdom of slowly improving an existing design instead of always starting from scratch.
A good point, but that strategy only works for so long. Like just two more years.
For instance instead of resting on their laurels they could have been incrementally upgrading their systems to continue to be on the leading edge. I know they have been making some improvements, but they are very minor compared to how long the Soyuz vehicle has been around. The crew vehicles from Boeing and SpaceX will be significant improvements on the Soyuz, and will put Russia behind - and Russia recognizes that, but they don't have a budget that allows them to fix that.
The other part is how their government is perceived, and how that affects their ability to leverage their great capabilities. Because Putin is viewed as a bully internationally, and he has done nothing to create a business-friendly law system (not to mention what he has done to limit personal freedoms within Russia), Russia has not been able to export or partner with others in order to expand on the advantages they have had in the aerospace sector, and specifically in space hardware. In essence, they squandered the opportunities they had at the end of the Cold War.
I hope a tipping point is not near for the Russian space industry...
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#13
by
savuporo
on 01 Dec, 2015 20:22
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well, you are right on the form, but not on the substance: global politics and especially collapse in oil prices are a fundamental part of the equation and likely the driver of the cut. We can keep them out of the discussion if so you wish, but then we will have not a lot to discuss either than saying "look, they cut the budget, pity".
Anyone who can read a newspaper probably understands why there is not a lot of money to go around there.
What isn't easy to find in a newspaper is informed discussion on what the implications are. How and which organizations, facilities and programs are impacted by the severe cuts ?
Will ISS extension to 2024 survive ? MLM-Nauka ? How about ExoMars ? Spektr-RG ? Luna-Glob aka Luna-25/26 etc ?
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#14
by
Prettz
on 01 Dec, 2015 22:42
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Also what, if anything, will this mean for launches of the Angara rocket family? Will the schedule for the A5 replacing the Proton be rolled back further?
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#15
by
Rebel44
on 02 Dec, 2015 07:18
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I know its hard but, lets try and make the effort: keep this on subject of RSA budget and implications to space related topics, not oil prices or global politics. Otherwise, there is a section here for politics.
cant find politics related subforum - link please?
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#16
by
Lar
on 02 Dec, 2015 16:31
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I know its hard but, lets try and make the effort: keep this on subject of RSA budget and implications to space related topics, not oil prices or global politics. Otherwise, there is a section here for politics.
cant find politics related subforum - link please?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=44.0That'll get you to the board. Policy is off topic for here.
Posting in policy/politics related threads is restricted to L2 members only, but it should work for you to read what is being said even if you're not L2.
This is just one more reason to support the site... L2 subscriptions are the primary source of site funding (all that bandwidth isn't free) and L2 members have access to a vast trove of truly awesome imagery, some great information that is not generally available, and a few sections like politics. Showing support for the site suggests being in tune with the site goals, which is why only L2 members get to post in the political sections.
I am sure I badly mangled this as usual. But I'm L2 for life, and love it.
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#17
by
faadaadaa
on 02 Dec, 2015 16:46
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Sounds like the cost of seats on Soyuz will be going up, up, up again.
Rides on Dragon and Starliner can't get here soon enough.
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#18
by
rcoppola
on 02 Dec, 2015 18:02
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I'm not entirely sure how to contribute without, tangentially anyways, veering into politics/policy since both are inextricably linked to their Space Program. And indeed, that's part of the issue. While the US, for example, is seeing a burgeoning public / private space sector partnership, creating cost effective, innovative products/services, Russia has moved in the opposite direction by trying to reconsolidate its Space Industry under centralized Govt. control. This is the worst time to spread the suffocating blanket of bureaucracy over one of their most prized industries. If anything, they should be encouraging private competition and investing in their space industry. But judging from all the reports of systemic corruption, especially wrt the construction of their new space port, they need to worry about a lot more then budget cuts. It's a complex issue that has no easy fixes or assured outcomes. I do sincerely hope they somehow find their way in the years to come.
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#19
by
B. Hendrickx
on 02 Dec, 2015 21:09
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According to Russian press reports it took two meetings with Putin (one in Sochi on 12 November and another in the Kremlin on 26 November) to hammer out an agreement on the Federal Space Programme for 2016-2025, which, incidentally, is discussed in the thread
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36644.0Some reports suggest the Ministry of Finance wanted the FSP 2016-2025 budget to be cut back to as little as 1 trillion rubles. If that is true, the 1.5 trillion budget may not even be such a bad deal. Still, it looks like the biggest victim of the budget cuts will be the manned programme. This was already evident during the 12 November Sochi meeting, when Putin didn't even mention Russia's plans to return to the Moon, emphasizing instead the need to upgrade the country's constellation of applications satellites.
The only realistic goals in the manned arena for the remainder of the decade are the launch of the (already manufactured) Node Module (UM) and the MLM science module. The launch of the Science and Power Module (NEM), which should make the ISS Russian segment independent from US power supply, has slipped to no earlier than 2019. It looks like they haven't even started cutting metal on that, apparently due to bureaucratic hassles between Roskosmos, RKK Energiya and TsNIIMash according to this recent Izvestiya article :
http://izvestia.ru/news/597846Several press reports suggest that development of the Soyuz successor (PTK NP) and the Angara-A5V will be put on the backburner. See for instance :
http://kosmolenta.com/index.php/759-2015-11-26-fkp-hard-cuthttp://tass.ru/kosmos/2479576
