What would be the use for the GEO to EML1 path? Cheers, Martin
Quote from: MP99 on 11/10/2015 05:08 amWhat would be the use for the GEO to EML1 path? Cheers, MartinEdit/Lar: De Embed.GEO Satellite servicing from EML1 station. I'm guessing Phase 4 will be building solar powered satellites at EML1 using lunar/asteroid materials and then delivered to GEO
75% of satellite profits come from military contracts...Is someone being charged too much or still GEO based?
Most of that diagram is about better ways to deliver services for NASA-like organizations, and NASA won't get anything close to a $600B budget unless a large asteroid is discovered on a collision course with Earth. The only part of that diagram with potential for significant new money is LEO tourism. It seems beyond implausible that LEO tourism would in 15 years be bigger than the GDP of Sweden and almost as big as the GDP of the state of Florida.
Quote from: su27k on 11/06/2015 03:51 pmFH and Raptor are happening without gov funding, so is BE-4. You do realize where the money comes from, right? Vulcan is being developed to launch government payloads, primarily. So is Falcon Heavy, which is SpaceX's design to compete for EELV Medium-Plus and Heavy payloads. - Ed Kyle
FH and Raptor are happening without gov funding, so is BE-4.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 11/06/2015 06:29 pmQuote from: su27k on 11/06/2015 03:51 pmFH and Raptor are happening without gov funding, so is BE-4. You do realize where the money comes from, right? Vulcan is being developed to launch government payloads, primarily. So is Falcon Heavy, which is SpaceX's design to compete for EELV Medium-Plus and Heavy payloads. - Ed KyleFalse. Of the 5 Falcon Heavy payloads which list a customer, only 1 is US govt. 4 are commercial satellites. The 1 launch which doesn't list a customer is "Falcon Heavy Demo," probably SpaceX internally funded.
In 5 years, I expect most SpaceX launches to be commercial (in this context meaning non-US-govt), as it nearly is now (out of the last 10 launches, 5 are for commercial customers). I hope ULA starts doing more, as well. We've definitely seen evidence of ULA moving in that direction, though I sincerly doubt they'll be doing most of their launches for commercial.
Population of space increases 60x in the first 15 years, then only 3x in the next 15 years?
Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 11/12/2015 01:48 pmPopulation of space increases 60x in the first 15 years, then only 3x in the next 15 years?Don't you think they're going to show some sort of logarithmic growth curve? It's a Malthusian thing: there's only a finite amount of space, and all that....
I envision 3 distinct phases.First, fuel will be brought up from earth as primary and secondary payloads which will be transferred directly to an ACES.Second, fuel will be brought up in the same way, but collected in depots for later transfer to ACES vehicles.Finally, Fuel will be produced on the moon and on NEOs (asteroids) and stored in depots at EML1. ACES vehicles will travel there and tank-up."
Because ACES will have orders of magnitude longer operation time, even without refueling, distributed lift becomes possible. By taking a payload only as far as LEO, then following with a fully fueled ACES, you can take a payload to a final destination that is around 3X heavier than anything possible today with even the Delta Heavy and other heavies to come. (although not be confused with SLS which will be in a class of its own).That same ultra-long duration allows the lifting of huge structures and spacecraft in pieces to be assembled in space.This alone, without refueling, will shatter the one spacecraft - one lift paradigm that has set a limit of what is possible for humanity to accomplish beyond our planet.Refueling:Many rockets go to space with excess capability. Which is to say, the specific spacecraft on a given mission is often less than the maximum capability of that rocket's configuration. That is what allows one to recover a booster. Otherwise, you would not be able to add the extra weight of hardware and unused propellant to fly back with.Initially, we will use that excess capability to bring up propellant in order to refuel previously used ACES. Later, we will produce LOX/LH2 from water mined on the moon and asteroids. At that point, we'll not even need to use our excess capability to lift fuel.Over time, a fleet os ACES "space trucks" will accumulate in orbit, operating indefinitely. This will change what we can do in CisLunar space and how we get to space from earth.We will no longer fly from the surface of the earth to destination orbits. EELVs will only go as far as LEO. ACES will swoop down, pick up the payload, and ferry it to its final destination. For some missions, fully reusable SSTOs will become practical for that first leg to space.There will also be a fleet of ACES able to journey within hours to any other orbit to support activities like satellite servicing.This will allow the construction of enormous structures in space, establishing the infrastructure needed to enable a self-sustaining CisLunar economy and a permanent presence of thousands of men and women living and working off of our planet
60% more satellites to be launched by 2024 vs. past decadeMass to orbit due to increase by 34% between the two decadesIndustry revenues to grow by 21% in the decade