Author Topic: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap  (Read 50085 times)

Offline jongoff

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #80 on: 12/31/2016 04:10 PM »
Is it just me or does it seem like ULA has less money for R&D than SpaceX? Maybe that is because Commercial Crew and Cargo are development oriented. On the other hand, maybe SpaceX is plowing its profit into R&D while ULA's parent companies are taking a good chunk of the profit.

Seems to me that somebody at ULA should figure out how to get the money to do ACES and Vulcan development simultaneously.

Not being a joint venture of two publicly-traded parent companies is definitely an advantage for SpaceX, though I think ULA's parent companies are letting them roll a lot more of their profits over into Vulcan and ACES development these days than they had in the past.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #81 on: 12/31/2016 04:14 PM »
As for XEUS, there is no urgency on this project. It still needs flight proven ACES and more importantly a market.

Xeus can actually work just fine with Centaur, so you don't need a flight-proven ACES. But the lack of a government customer or commercial market part is what's keeping it on the slow burner. AIUI, Masten is still spending real resources on their part of their Lunar Catalyst work with NASA (who is also doing support via a non-reimbursable SAA), there's only so much that can be done without money changing hands.

~Jon

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #82 on: 12/31/2016 05:52 PM »
Jon do you know if they plan to fly IVF Centuar or wait for ACES.

Offline jongoff

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #83 on: 12/31/2016 08:06 PM »
Jon do you know if they plan to fly IVF Centuar or wait for ACES.

I'm honestly not sure which approach they'll take for getting IVF flown.

And if I was sure, and it wasn't public info, I probably couldn't say anyway. :-)

~Jon

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #84 on: 01/01/2017 06:37 PM »
Well it might interest President Trump if he wants to go back to the Moon but take the private enterprise route. Though SLS & Orion would no doubt pay the cost of this kind of choice.

To a certain extent it doesn't matter what technology is available for a government return to the Moon, since we proved we could go to the Moon with 60's era technology.  It only matters that there is political consensus to fund such an effort, and in order for that to happen there has to be a "national imperative" of some sort - big or small.

Which we don't have today, and since any mission to the Moon will require Congressional buy-in, it's unlikely that a Trump interest in the Moon alone will change the current situation.

In the meantime though, moving these systems further along will help them become possible solutions for when someone, sometime, wants to go beyond LEO.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #85 on: 01/09/2017 07:13 PM »
Well it might interest President Trump if he wants to go back to the Moon but take the private enterprise route. Though SLS & Orion would no doubt pay the cost of this kind of choice.

To a certain extent it doesn't matter what technology is available for a government return to the Moon, since we proved we could go to the Moon with 60's era technology.  It only matters that there is political consensus to fund such an effort, and in order for that to happen there has to be a "national imperative" of some sort - big or small.

Which we don't have today, and since any mission to the Moon will require Congressional buy-in, it's unlikely that a Trump interest in the Moon alone will change the current situation.

In the meantime though, moving these systems further along will help them become possible solutions for when someone, sometime, wants to go beyond LEO.
There is a second prong to this and that is that while commercial continues to make progress on systems on their own, that in and of itself lowers the bar where Congress may "buy-in" because the costs continue to lower. Eventually a commercial entity may decide to fully fund a Lunar Return if Congress never does a "buy-in". This leaves Congress to then purchase services from an established provide to stay up with other nations that buy services and conduct their own Lunar exploration.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #86 on: 02/19/2017 05:42 AM »
ULA overview slides from last week's CISLunar1000 workshop:

Quote
The charts from our Cislunar Marketplace workshop are now available! #cislunar1000   ulalaunch http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Commercial_Space/CisLunar_Marketplace_Master_Final.pdf

https://twitter.com/george_sowers/status/832235512110813184

Online AncientU

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #87 on: 02/20/2017 11:50 AM »
ULA overview slides from last week's CISLunar1000 workshop:

Quote
The charts from our Cislunar Marketplace workshop are now available! #cislunar1000   ulalaunch http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Commercial_Space/CisLunar_Marketplace_Master_Final.pdf

https://twitter.com/george_sowers/status/832235512110813184

Quite an 'interesting' take on becoming entrepreneurial in the space marketplace.

Imagine Silicon Valley holding workshops on, Internet, The Next Thirty Years in 1980, or Telecommunications, The Next Thirty Years in 1990, or AI, The Next Thirty Years... of course, they'd generate Roadmaps and Cross-Correlation Matricies.

Quote
The CisLunar Marketplace roadmaps we created identified potential business opportunities near term and a 30-year time span
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #88 on: 02/20/2017 02:12 PM »
ULA overview slides from last week's CISLunar1000 workshop:

Quote
The charts from our Cislunar Marketplace workshop are now available! #cislunar1000   ulalaunch http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Commercial_Space/CisLunar_Marketplace_Master_Final.pdf

https://twitter.com/george_sowers/status/832235512110813184

Quite an 'interesting' take on becoming entrepreneurial in the space marketplace.

Imagine Silicon Valley holding workshops on, Internet, The Next Thirty Years in 1980, or Telecommunications, The Next Thirty Years in 1990, or AI, The Next Thirty Years... of course, they'd generate Roadmaps and Cross-Correlation Matricies.

Quote
The CisLunar Marketplace roadmaps we created identified potential business opportunities near term and a 30-year time span

There are a lot of people out there trying to read the tea-leaves for the first half of this century (you and I and practically everyone on this website)... reason being, it is moving so fast, that entrepreneurs are having a hard time keeping up with developments and opportunities... indeed back in the 80's - 90's people in college (and elsewhere :) )were getting a taste of the things to come in telecommunications, and what was possible... business started and merged and folded, like rock bands in the 60's... it was wild...

these workshops (and there are many, not just ULA, but Peter Diamandis and others) are beating the bushes to bring people who are thinking of start ups in new fields, that 10 years ago were sci-fi, together to brainstorm the future... thus accelerating the process...  The future that ULA, Bigelow, Bezos and Musk are pushing, along with other billionaires, is just around the corner, and few of us lay people are prepared for the avalanche... Robotics and AI are equivalent to what Electricity was, back 100 years ago... look at the wild ride that took society in the last century...
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Online Lars-J

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #89 on: 02/20/2017 05:41 PM »
What I find surprising about Holguin's presentation is that ACES isn't planned to fly until 2023 and the reusability plans only come in after that. 7 years is a long-time for a NET date. The market and the competition could have changed significantly by then.

I've never been convinced that ULA is serious about ACES and reuse - because it it always many years in the future, it never seems to get any closer. A certain other company gets a lot of flack for development delays, but this perpetual ACES shift into the future seems to glide under the radar.

I want to see ACES. I want to see ULA push forward instead of being caretakers of what they inherited when the company was formed.

Offline jongoff

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #90 on: 02/20/2017 06:32 PM »
What I find surprising about Holguin's presentation is that ACES isn't planned to fly until 2023 and the reusability plans only come in after that. 7 years is a long-time for a NET date. The market and the competition could have changed significantly by then.

I've never been convinced that ULA is serious about ACES and reuse - because it it always many years in the future, it never seems to get any closer. A certain other company gets a lot of flack for development delays, but this perpetual ACES shift into the future seems to glide under the radar.

I want to see ACES. I want to see ULA push forward instead of being caretakers of what they inherited when the company was formed.

I have to be careful what I say here, but seeing as how ULA ACES/IVF work was big chunk of our revenue last year, I'm pretty confident I can say ULA is serious about ACES development. They're spending significant amounts of their own money and are pushing a real flight hardware development schedule. I agree that beforehand the dates they were giving were probably more notional, of the "if we can find a paying customer, we could have this ready to fly by date X." Now though, it seems like their parent companies are letting them reinvest a lot of their own money into actual flight hardware development to meet the proposed schedule.

Don't get me wrong though, I agree that they really should be trying to accelerate ACES development relative to that 2023 date. I hope they can find a way to pull that schedule to the left by a few years. But I'm convinced they're serious about ACES development this time around.

~Jon

Online Lars-J

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #91 on: 02/20/2017 06:48 PM »
Ok, that's good to know! Thanks, Jon.

Online Lar

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #92 on: 02/20/2017 07:01 PM »
ULA overview slides from last week's CISLunar1000 workshop:

Quote
The charts from our Cislunar Marketplace workshop are now available! #cislunar1000   ulalaunch http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Commercial_Space/CisLunar_Marketplace_Master_Final.pdf

https://twitter.com/george_sowers/status/832235512110813184

That looked like a LOT of fun to be in on... Wish I had been invited. 

And Jon, good news on ACES/IVF. I think these techs, more than Vulcan and SMART Reuse, are the key to ULA competitive advantage (SMART reuse is "me too", but ACES? Something the other guys don't have)
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Online AncientU

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #93 on: 02/21/2017 07:41 AM »
ACES is a great idea...
ULA should continue moving to build it and see if they come.

Not sure SMART reuse can compete.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline jongoff

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #94 on: 02/21/2017 08:54 PM »
ACES is a great idea...
ULA should continue moving to build it and see if they come.

Not sure SMART reuse can compete.

SMART reuse would've been much more compelling had they been able to start developing it 8-9yrs ago when they first started talking about it. As much as I love what ULA is doing with ACES and Vulcan, I still hope we can eventually talk them into powered landing, Xeus-style for Vulcan first stage. It's their call, but I struggle to see how they're going to stay competitive with SpaceX with SMART reuse. It might allow them to better compete with a non-reusable vehicle like Proton or Ariane 6, but seems like an incomplete response to what SpaceX is doing.

Admittedly, it would be a lot easier to sell them on full first stage recovery if a) distributed lift was already flying or about to fly, and b) there was at least one small RLV startup delivering low-cost propellant that they could leverage for distributed lift. I say that because most of their payloads are GTO/GEO bound (or modest-sized LEO vehicles), where they should have enough performance with a Vulcan/ACES w/o solids to get the payload to LEO and still have enough prop left on the first stage for at least a barge landing. If they had a cheap way to top the ACES stage back up enough for GTO, they could theoretically then justify a fully-reusable first stage. Though admittedly, until distributed lift refueling maneuvers have been demonstrated successfully many times, some customers may prefer to pay the premium for simpler mission operations.

Anyhow, just speaking off the cuff there. But I agree with you that I find ACES far more exciting than SMART.

~Jon

Online HIP2BSQRE

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #95 on: 02/21/2017 09:20 PM »
ACES is a great idea...
ULA should continue moving to build it and see if they come.

Not sure SMART reuse can compete.

SMART reuse would've been much more compelling had they been able to start developing it 8-9yrs ago when they first started talking about it. As much as I love what ULA is doing with ACES and Vulcan, I still hope we can eventually talk them into powered landing, Xeus-style for Vulcan first stage. It's their call, but I struggle to see how they're going to stay competitive with SpaceX with SMART reuse. It might allow them to better compete with a non-reusable vehicle like Proton or Ariane 6, but seems like an incomplete response to what SpaceX is doing.

Admittedly, it would be a lot easier to sell them on full first stage recovery if a) distributed lift was already flying or about to fly, and b) there was at least one small RLV startup delivering low-cost propellant that they could leverage for distributed lift. I say that because most of their payloads are GTO/GEO bound (or modest-sized LEO vehicles), where they should have enough performance with a Vulcan/ACES w/o solids to get the payload to LEO and still have enough prop left on the first stage for at least a barge landing. If they had a cheap way to top the ACES stage back up enough for GTO, they could theoretically then justify a fully-reusable first stage. Though admittedly, until distributed lift refueling maneuvers have been demonstrated successfully many times, some customers may prefer to pay the premium for simpler mission operations.

Anyhow, just speaking off the cuff there. But I agree with you that I find ACES far more exciting than SMART.

~Jon

Jon,

The problem that I see for ULA is by the time that they do smart use in 2023 the majority of the commerical market might be all SpaceX and BO.  Remember New Glenn is meant to fly by 2020 and it will have first stage re-use.  By 2021, you could have SpaceX and BO doing first stage recovery as the normal part of their business.  Smart reuse could end up being the Microsoft phone of 2020 --too little too late.  The market has moved on.  What is even worse for ULA, if in 2020 SpaceX is launching 20 -30+ times per year, vs a company who is only flying  7- 10 times/years, who will have the lower costs?  If I was an investor and looking at 5 year time table - who would you put your money in?  ULA is safe only for a few more years.  ULA needs to out innovate not just SpaceX but BO. 

Offline jabe

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #96 on: 02/21/2017 09:43 PM »
Jon,

The problem that I see for ULA is by the time that they do smart use in 2023 the majority of the commerical market might be all SpaceX and BO.  Remember New Glenn is meant to fly by 2020 and it will have first stage re-use.  By 2021, you could have SpaceX and BO doing first stage recovery as the normal part of their business.  Smart reuse could end up being the Microsoft phone of 2020 --too little too late.  The market has moved on.  What is even worse for ULA, if in 2020 SpaceX is launching 20 -30+ times per year, vs a company who is only flying  7- 10 times/years, who will have the lower costs?  If I was an investor and looking at 5 year time table - who would you put your money in?  ULA is safe only for a few more years.  ULA needs to out innovate not just SpaceX but BO. 
My crystal ball has ULA doing the cislunar in space and ceding launches to Spacex and BO.  ACES looks like it can do some cool things that the other companies don't look like they have started thinking about/doing.  Time to shift your business case..
now to be fair I have a bout of the flu so not thinking straight.. but anything is possible..
jb

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #97 on: 02/21/2017 10:31 PM »
My crystal ball is made of a different crystal. ULA has been working on lowering costs since before the block buy. The are winning commercial launches now with value add. The future brings on Vulcan with an streamlined operation and the possibility that Smart Reuse will save more money.

They are building on a strong foundation and will cede nothing.

At least that is in my crystal ball.

Online Lars-J

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #98 on: 02/21/2017 11:17 PM »
They are building on a strong foundation and will cede nothing.

They are gambling on the competition failing and the status quo remaining, I wouldn't call that a very strong foundation. Especially with the block buys going away. They might cede things despite not wanting to.

Online AncientU

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #99 on: 02/21/2017 11:57 PM »
They are building on a strong foundation and will cede nothing.

They are gambling on the competition failing and the status quo remaining, I wouldn't call that a very strong foundation. Especially with the block buys going away. They might cede things despite not wanting to.

The competition for 2019 has at least 40% of the DoD market going away from ULA, possibly 60%.
Heavies will be a separate allocation, but they are dropping DIVH.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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