Author Topic: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap  (Read 32273 times)

Offline GWH

ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« on: 11/05/2015 12:46 AM »
So this could be interesting, ULA is posting a series of infographics on twitter for the CIS lunar 1000 roadmap that they are talking about as a self sustaining CISlunar economy.
First one from today:


The "1000" in the title is the goal to have 1000 people living and working in space.
« Last Edit: 11/05/2015 12:56 AM by GWH »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #1 on: 11/05/2015 01:09 AM »
One small issue with info graphic, todays crew should be on a Soyuz. The LV in graph looks a lot like CST100 on Atlas.

Online RonM

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #2 on: 11/05/2015 02:55 AM »
Obviously, ULA is promoting their equipment for their plan.

If they were using what we really have today that should a Soyuz and population six.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #3 on: 11/05/2015 03:26 AM »
I like it.

It's a good reminder that the current space economy is ALREADY huge. Much bigger than the platinum-group-metals market, which is only like $5-20 billion/year in mined PGMs, even dwarfing the gold mining market which has less than $100 billion of gold mined every year.

Space is already a really big deal.
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Online RonM

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #4 on: 11/05/2015 04:58 AM »
Good point. $330 billion is an impressive amount.

ULA has succeed in making me want to see what is the next part of their plan.

Offline deltaV

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #5 on: 11/05/2015 04:59 AM »
$330B/year sounds like an inflated marketing number. Wikipedia says there were 92 orbital launches worldwide in 2014. At say an average of say $600 million per launch for launch vehicle and payload combined that's a total of on the order of $55B per year spent on space. I'm guessing the $330B/year figure counts anything that touches space at all, e.g. counting the whole $100/month someone spends on satellite TV as space revenue even though a substantial fraction of that goes to the networks to produce the programming and doesn't really have anything to do with space.

Offline jongoff

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #6 on: 11/05/2015 06:06 AM »
$330B/year sounds like an inflated marketing number. Wikipedia says there were 92 orbital launches worldwide in 2014. At say an average of say $600 million per launch for launch vehicle and payload combined that's a total of on the order of $55B per year spent on space. I'm guessing the $330B/year figure counts anything that touches space at all, e.g. counting the whole $100/month someone spends on satellite TV as space revenue even though a substantial fraction of that goes to the networks to produce the programming and doesn't really have anything to do with space.

Most of the money made from space is from the companies using satellites to provide telecommunications, earth imaging, etc. Applications make the most money, followed by spacecraft manufacturers, with launch being actually one of the smallest (but most important chunks). Kind of like how on Earth the infrastructure companies that make it possible for there to be an internet make far less money than the Googles and Amazons that use the internet to deliver services to end-users. It's one of the big challenges in commercial space--in order to enable exciting new capabilities, you need infrastructure (better launchers, depots, space facilities, etc), but the real money currently is in the apps, so that's where most of the investment money is going (other than that big SpaceX investment, but even that might be focused on the app side--their LEO constellation). Not saying that infrastructure plays can't raise money, it's just harder to raise big money on infrastructure, because it doesn't scale the same way software/telecom does.

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Offline arachnitect

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #7 on: 11/05/2015 07:01 AM »
$330B/year sounds like an inflated marketing number. Wikipedia says there were 92 orbital launches worldwide in 2014. At say an average of say $600 million per launch for launch vehicle and payload combined that's a total of on the order of $55B per year spent on space. I'm guessing the $330B/year figure counts anything that touches space at all, e.g. counting the whole $100/month someone spends on satellite TV as space revenue even though a substantial fraction of that goes to the networks to produce the programming and doesn't really have anything to do with space.

Number probably comes from here
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/07/10/global-space-economy-grew-9-percent-330-billion-year/

Citing a report that costs $400 to download.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #8 on: 11/05/2015 07:02 AM »
Interesting that ULA have missed off their biggest customer! No mil-space in that info-graphic (e.g. GPS in MEO orbits).

Offline MP99

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #9 on: 11/05/2015 07:23 AM »


$330B/year sounds like an inflated marketing number. Wikipedia says there were 92 orbital launches worldwide in 2014. At say an average of say $600 million per launch for launch vehicle and payload combined that's a total of on the order of $55B per year spent on space. I'm guessing the $330B/year figure counts anything that touches space at all, e.g. counting the whole $100/month someone spends on satellite TV as space revenue even though a substantial fraction of that goes to the networks to produce the programming and doesn't really have anything to do with space.

Was that PGM number comparable? Annual value of all PGM products and services sold to consumers?

Cheers, Martin

Offline GWH

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #10 on: 11/05/2015 04:34 PM »
Part 2:


Some accompanying twitter quotes from George Sowers:
"Part 2 of our roadmap to #cislunar1000.  Assumes 7% annual growth rate for space economy"
"Note that the #cislunar1000 panels are additive.  Activities in part 2 add to those in part 1."


And there was this interesting quote from him responding to Blair Bigelow asking "possibly a B330 in the mix?!": "Wait for next installment. Bigelow is the linchpin!"
« Last Edit: 11/05/2015 04:35 PM by GWH »

Offline Oli

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #11 on: 11/05/2015 05:19 PM »
Looks like ULA learned from SpaceX' marketing departement. ::)
« Last Edit: 11/05/2015 05:20 PM by Oli »

Offline ethan829

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #12 on: 11/05/2015 06:21 PM »
Interesting that the "next 5 years" graphic includes ACES, when we've previously heard that it wouldn't fly until 2023.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #13 on: 11/05/2015 06:45 PM »
Interesting that the "next 5 years" graphic includes ACES, when we've previously heard that it wouldn't fly until 2023.
The ACES may not fly till 2023 but it's critical IVF technology may fly sooner in Centuar.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #14 on: 11/05/2015 07:17 PM »
George Sowers dream for future is manufacturing of Solar Power Satellites SPS (beaming power to earth) at a EML1 or DRO spacestation. Bulk of materials would come from moon or asteroids. This is not a far fetched idea, just have to start small and target high value structures first.

One of NASAs proposals for their DSH is to use it for manufacturing and assembly a large telescope 16-20m. Both Tethers Unlimited and Made In Space are working on 3D printing tressules which could be used for the bulky support structures for this telescope.

If this works then maybe large MW SEP tugs could be next, along with MW SPS for powering lunar bases/assets.
 

Offline savuporo

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #15 on: 11/05/2015 11:48 PM »
I'm looking at the second panel and thinking non-sequitur, or an underpants gnomes plan. There is no logical connection how the current space products and services suddenly get complemented by all of these things on the second panel. Is it given to mean that somehow Vulcan and ACES magically make these activities viable or economical or what ?
Meanwhile, keep stealing underpants.
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Offline MP99

Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #16 on: 11/05/2015 11:55 PM »
Looks like ULA learned from SpaceX' marketing departement. ::)
Reminds me of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation - just from the look and feel.

Cheers, Martin

Offline FishInferno

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #17 on: 11/06/2015 12:44 AM »
I have the sneaking suspicion ULA is doing this in an attempt to get the same attention SpaceX gets for their Mars program.
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Offline Dante80

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #18 on: 11/06/2015 06:32 AM »
I have the sneaking suspicion ULA is doing this in an attempt to get the same attention SpaceX gets for their Mars program.

Which is extremely cool, and also shows the direction and impulse that Mr Bruno wishes to give to the company.

edited for removing OT discussion.
« Last Edit: 11/06/2015 07:01 AM by Dante80 »

Offline savuporo

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Re: ULA + CISLunar1000 roadmap
« Reply #19 on: 11/06/2015 06:46 AM »
I think that RL-10 is going to get replaced with XCOR due to cost.
Huh ? That statement doesn't make a lot of sense.
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