Author Topic: Countdown to new smallsat launchers  (Read 419746 times)

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #960 on: 10/14/2021 04:21 pm »
Isn't Firefly also using Ukrainian engine tech now?

Since 2018, yes. Which enabled a first launch attempt in 2021.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline Kosmos2001

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #961 on: 10/15/2021 08:42 am »
Off-topic, but see latest long-form interview with Tom Markusic by Everyday Astronaut. Only turbopump assembly is "Ukranian heritage." All other engine tech is SSME/American heritage (e.g., copper lined/nickel-cobalt plated chamber) or Firefly internal (e.g., tap-off cycle components, injectors).

A good joint venture between the east (turbopump) and the west (chamber, nozzle, etc...), he somehow put it that way.

Offline Fmedici

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #962 on: 10/19/2021 09:20 am »
Cross-post: indian company Agnikul plans to launch its Agnibaan launch vehicle from Kodiak starting from 2022; I have no idea of how reliable those statements are.

Agnikul Cosmos Signs MOU to Use ISRO Facilities to Develop Launch Vehicle [dated Sept. 17]

Quote
Agnikul aims to complete its first launch in 2022. The company has signed an agreement with the Alaska Aerospace Corporation (AAC) to launch from the Pacific Spaceport Complex — Alaska on Kodiak Island.

Agnikul and Alaska Aerospace Corporation are working together to obtain regulatory and export control approvals from the Indian and American governments for an initial test launch sometime next year.

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #963 on: 10/21/2021 08:55 pm »
Cross-post: indian company Agnikul plans to launch its Agnibaan launch vehicle from Kodiak starting from 2022; I have no idea of how reliable those statements are.

Agnikul Cosmos Signs MOU to Use ISRO Facilities to Develop Launch Vehicle [dated Sept. 17]

Quote
Agnikul aims to complete its first launch in 2022. The company has signed an agreement with the Alaska Aerospace Corporation (AAC) to launch from the Pacific Spaceport Complex — Alaska on Kodiak Island.

Agnikul and Alaska Aerospace Corporation are working together to obtain regulatory and export control approvals from the Indian and American governments for an initial test launch sometime next year.

This is old news from 2020:

https://www.republicworld.com/amp/technology-news/science/indias-agnikul-cosmos-signs-deal-with-alaska-aerospace-for-test-launc.html

And the launch was announced for 'by the end of 2022" (source).

Connected to Airbus, PSCA and ISRO, and testing engines for a while, this looks like a serious rocket project. But Indian launch schedules have been most unreliable of all space-faring nations. Added to the list with NET 2024 estimate.
« Last Edit: 10/21/2021 08:56 pm by PM3 »
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Offline Davidthefat

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #964 on: 11/16/2021 07:26 am »
X-Bow seems to have updated their website with real information:

https://www.xbowsystems.com/

Seems to have "orbital" in their "We Fly" page, but only seems to show solid propellant motors which looks to be sub M class motors which very much is only for suborbital flight.

Interesting thing is their additively manufactured solid propellant motors, something that New Mexico Tech has been developing: https://www.nmt.edu/news/2019/materials-3D-rocket-motors.php

Well, others have pursued additively manufacturing solid propellant grains, but NMT's name is right on the motor on their website. I wonder what X-Bow's long term plan is.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #965 on: 11/18/2021 05:18 am »
Not a lot of actual metal flying in the air from these companies, that’s a bit ominous. Some companies have been listed here for years, and their status is still 3 years from first flight.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #966 on: 11/18/2021 08:26 am »
Not a lot of actual metal flying in the air from these companies, that’s a bit ominous. Some companies have been listed here for years, and their status is still 3 years from first flight.
Startups fold all time, its not just aerospace thing.

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Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #967 on: 11/19/2021 08:44 pm »
[...]
Intentionally not listed:
[...]
- SpinLaunch [2022+], too dubious
This one could possibly be upgraded from "dubious" to merely "aggressive schedule".  Jonathan Goff, head of Altius and was lead of propulsion at Masten, has had an inside look at SpinLaunch and believes it can work.  So at least one credible professional, with inside insight, thinks it's not completely dubious.

Offline SciNews

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #968 on: 11/20/2021 04:07 am »
DLR - Aerospike engine from Pangea Aerospace trialled on DLR test stand
https://www.dlr.de/content/en/articles/news/2021/04/20211119_pangea-trialled-on-dlr-test-stand-lampoldshausen.html
Quote
DLR has tested a MethaLox aerospike engine for the first time, on behalf of the start-up Pangea Aerospace.
The DLR and Pangea Aerospace teams successfully conducted several hot-run tests using the European Research and Technology Test Stand P8.
Aerospike technology promises significantly higher efficiency compared to conventional propulsion systems.
Pangea Aerospace aerospike engine hot run

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #969 on: 11/20/2021 04:48 am »
[...]
Intentionally not listed:
[...]
- SpinLaunch [2022+], too dubious
This one could possibly be upgraded from "dubious" to merely "aggressive schedule".  Jonathan Goff, head of Altius and was lead of propulsion at Masten, has had an inside look at SpinLaunch and believes it can work.  So at least one credible professional, with inside insight, thinks it's not completely dubious.

Agree that expectations have changed since that subsonic demonstration shot was disclosed. Scott Manley also upgraded his stance on SpinLaunch.

Orbital launch was targeted for late 2022, which is totally unrealistic. Tons of problems still need to be solved. They now just say they will do suborbital tests till ~ mid 2022. Expect that those tests will run into 2023, and an orbital launcher will not be ready before late 2024.

(The list needs some more updates; just waiting for Astra.)
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #970 on: 11/20/2021 05:30 am »
Changes since previous post:

- Astra is in orbit!
- next Firefly launch announced for early 2022
- Nebula-1 and Darwin-1 now announced for 2023 (was 2021 / 2022)
- shifted expectation for Zoljanah, Eris and Nebula-1 by +1 year
- Skyrora 2023+ [2022+] => 2023 [2022]
- moved Jielong-2 to the "unclear" section due to news blackout
- moved Zero to "intentionally not listed" due to lack of funding
- moved SpinLaunch from "intentionally not listed" to scheduled list
- added Hyperbola-2

More updates:

- 2021-11-23: removed Jielong-2 because this may not be a new launcher
- 2021-11-23: Volans development lacks funding to reach orbit
- 2021-11-27: SSLV now announced  for Q1 2022 (was 2021), expected NET Q2



New smallsat launchers - first successful orbital flight since thread opening:

2018-01  ...  Electron     US/NZ     Rocket Lab
2018-03  ...  SS-520       Japan     IHI/JAXA
2019-07  ...  Hyperbola-1  China     iSpace
2019-08  ...  Jielong-1    China     Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020-04  ...  Qased        Iran      (military)
2020-11  ...  Ceres-1      China     Galactic Energy
2021-01  ...  LauncherOne  US        Virgin Orbit
2021-11  ...  Rocket 3     US        Astra

Launch expected [announced] NET:     (+ = very ambitious schedule or unclear date)

2021  [2021]  RS1          US        ABL
2021+ [2021]  OS-M         China     OneSpace
2021+ [2021]  Simorgh      Iran      ISA (state-owned)

2022          Kuaizhou-11  China     ExPace (state-owned)
2022  [2022]  Firefly α    US/Ukr    Firefly
2022  [2022]  SSLV         India     ISRO (state-owned)
2022  [2021+] Zoljanah     Iran      (military?)
2022  [2022]  Terran 1     US        Relativity

2023          Kairos       Japan     Space One / Canon
2023  [2022]  Eris         Australia Gilmour
2023  [2022]  Rocket 4     US        Astra
2023  [2022+] Prime        UK        Orbex
2023  [2022]  Skyrora XL   UK/Ukr    Skyrora
2023  [2021+] Hyperbola-2  China     iSpace
2023+ [2022]  Spectrum     Germany   ISAR Aerospace
2023+ [2022]  Hapith V     Taiwan    tiSpace
2023+ [2022]  RFA One      Germany   RFA / OHB

2024  [2022]  Vikram       India     Skyroot
2024  [2022]  Agnibaan     India     Agnikul
2024  [2022]  VLM-1        Brazil    DCTA (state-owned)
2024  [2023]  Nebula-1     China     Deep Blue
2024  [2023]  Darwin-1     China     Rocket Group
2024+ [2023]  SL1          Germany   HyImpulse
2024+ [2022+] SpinLaunch   US        SpinLaunch

Intentionally not listed:

- Aevum Ravn [2021], too dubious
- ARCA EcoRocket [2022], too dubious
- Phantom Daytona [2023], too dubious
- bluShift Red Dwarf [2023], too unclear if and when this will launch
- Equatorial Volans [2023], not funded
- Interstellar Zero [2023], not funded
- everything announced for ≥ 2024, those dates are too unreliable
- projects without notable media coverage

Unclear - no update on launch date:

- Super Stripy derivate (X-Bow/US), announced for 2019
- Blue Whale 1 (Perigee/Korea), announced for 2020
- Newline-1 (Linkspace/China), announced for 2021 in 2019
- Xingtu-1 (Spacetrek/China), announced for 2021 in 2019

Canceled:

- Boeing XS-1
- Zhuque-1 (Landspace/China)
« Last Edit: 12/08/2021 10:20 am by PM3 »
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Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #971 on: 11/20/2021 06:07 am »
Depending on the definition of borderline cases, I guess this is a good overview of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/cosmic_penguin/status/1461951137213403141?s=21
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Offline SciNews

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #972 on: 11/20/2021 08:34 am »
- moved Jielong-2 to the "unclear" section due to news blackout
Jielong-2 seems to have been abandoned, the first launch of Jielong-3 is expected in 2022.
http://www.spacechina.com/n25/n2014789/n2014809/c3302102/content.html

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #973 on: 11/20/2021 08:48 am »
- moved Jielong-2 to the "unclear" section due to news blackout
Jielong-2 seems to have been abandoned, the first launch of Jielong-3 is expected in 2022.
http://www.spacechina.com/n25/n2014789/n2014809/c3302102/content.html

Andrew Jones wrote in August that Jielong-2 has not been abandoned, but may have been postponed. Jielong-3 is 1.5 t to 500 km SSO which translates to ~ 2 t to 200 km LEO. I would not consider that as a small launcher, but set the limit at ~ 1.5 t to LEO (= Kuaizhou-11, the biggest rocket in the list).

Edit:
The most common definition of "small launcher" seems to be "up to 2 metric tons to 200 km LEO". But Jielong-3 probably is a bit above that limit, so rather a medium launcher. However Hyperbola-2 qualifies with 1.9 t to LEO ("> 1.1 t" to 500 km SSO).

Another Edit:
CASC in August 2021 gave an update on Jielong-3 development and wrote that there are three Jielong rockets: -1, -2 and -3 (source).
« Last Edit: 11/20/2021 01:04 pm by PM3 »
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Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #974 on: 11/20/2021 09:17 am »
Given the relationship between CALT and the operators of the Jielong/Smart Dragon series, as well as the similarities of their models, I have always assumed Jielong-2 is merely a re-branded Long March 11 (maybe with some payload adaptor modifications), and Jielong-3 = Long March 11A, which has long been planned as a much evolved version of the LM-11.

I have little confidence in me being right though, the relationship between CASC and their China Rocket subsidiary has always been strange to me.
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Offline SciNews

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #975 on: 11/20/2021 10:59 am »
Only SD-1 (Jielong-1) and SD-3 (Jielong-3) were present at the Zhuhai Airshow in September 2021
There were four in the Jielong series announced in 2019, including a suborbital one.

Offline Fmedici

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #976 on: 12/04/2021 04:57 pm »
Cross-post:
I just stumbled across the Argentinean company TLON Space, which is developing a tiny orbital launch vehicle, planned to be launched in 2022.
https://tlon.space/

It is a small liquid fuel launch vehicle of only 10 m height ans 0.35 m diameter, capable of placing 25 kg into low earth orbit. The engines are called ATM-4R1 for stage 1, and VAC-4R2 for stage 2. Apparently stage 1 is to be recoverable by parachute.

The interesting point is, that they have conducted 5 suborbital atmospheric test flights of prototypes (although no altitude was given).

Also in the FCC ODAR for the SAI-2 cubesat, the Aventura I is listed as the planned launch vehicle.
https://fcc.report/ELS/Space-AI-Incorporated/0173-EX-CN-2021/284565

Does anyone else have some information on this company and their launch vehicle?

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #977 on: 12/07/2021 02:29 pm »
The Chinese company Galactic Energy has launched their second Ceres-1 rocket to orbit today.

I believe they are only the 5th orbital launch service provider to reach orbit more than once that are generally described as majority privately funded.

1. Orbital Sciences Corporation (July 17, 1991 - Pegasus)
2. SpaceX (July 14, 2009 - Falcon 1)
3. Rocket Lab (November 11, 2018 - Electron)
4. Virgin Orbit (June 30, 2021 - LauncherOne)
5. Galactic Energy (December 7, 2021 - Ceres-1)

2 others have reached orbit once so far:

a. iSpace (July 25, 2019 - Hyperbola-1)
b. Astra (November 20, 2021 - Rocket 3.3)

Correct me if I’m wrong.  :)
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Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #978 on: 12/08/2021 11:46 am »
Some smallsat launcher news:

- An FCC license application for RS1 launch was rejected, and ABL has filed a new application for January 31 to July 31, 2022 (see ABL thread). This indicates that the first RS1 launch slips to 2022.

- NSF recently reported that the second Kuaizhou-11 launch attempt is still planned for 2021. ExPace operations already have resumed after a brief Covid-19 lockdown, so we might see a launch before year's end.

- As posted here by Skyrocket, the Argentinian company Tlon Space is preparing a first orbital launch of their tiny Aventura I rocket. Payload license application indicates a planned launch in December 2021; commercial service was announced to begin in 2022.

- Innospace from Taiwan plans to launch their Hanbit nano rocket from Alcantara in second half of 2022. See Innospace thread for more information.

- There have been some news about development of the Canadian C6 Launch rocket. A test stand has been set up at Spaceport America, and they obtained a license for launching from Alcantara in Brazil. First launch attempt has been announced for mid 2022 or early 2022, but they are still in early stage of development. Hard to tell if and when this will actually launch.

- Space Engineering Systems from Canada made headlines with a hypersonic concept plane called "Sexbomb". This is to be followed by the suborbital & LEO spaceplane Hello-1, first launch in 2023, and the crewed "Hello-2" in 2025. Too hilarious to be real.

- iRocket - based in New York - announced a 10-launches-contract for their Shockwave launcher. They are counting down to a first launch in mid 2023, which looks highly unrealistic for a reusable launcher that started development in 2018. A launch contract between two startups that need investor money ... I won't take that too serious.
« Last Edit: 12/09/2021 02:15 pm by PM3 »
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Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #979 on: 12/08/2021 12:20 pm »
Changes since previous post, as reported:

- Kuaizhou-11 might still launch in 2021
- RS1 slips to 2022
- shifted expectation for OS-M from 2021+ to 2022
- added Aventura I, announced for December 2021
- added Hanbit, announced for NET mid 2022
- mentioned C6 Launch, Chetak, Hello-1 and Shockwave

More updates:

-12-14: Aventura I slips to NET 2022
-12-14: Kairos now announced for end of 2022, Red Dwarf for 2024-2025
-12-14: added Vector-R to the "unclear" section
-12-14: mentioned Dauntless, Launcher Light, Miura 5, Zephyr and Honda rocket
-12-17: delisted Darwin-1, the first flight announced for 2023 may just be a hop
-12-17: mentioned MUFS
-12-29: added Gravity-1 - not a small launcher
-12-30: recycled Simorgh to 2022 after it missed orbital velocity today
-12-31: Kuaizhou-11 slips to 2022
-01-20: moved OS-M back to the "unclear" section due to news blackout
-01-20: RS1 slips to later 2022 after second stage test RUD
-01-27: shifted expectation for RFA One by +1 year
-01-27: SpinLaunch now reported to launch "around 2025"
-02-16: moved Ravn from "intentionally not listed" to the "unclear" section
-03-01: added Qaem
-03-08: added + indicator for Terran 1
-03-27: moved Vector to "canceled", assuming it is finally dead
-05-02: delisted Nebula-1, which is now announced for 2024
-05-02: Eris 2023 [2022] => 2024+ [2023], first launch will be suborbital
-05-03: shifted expectation for Hyperbola-2 by +1 year
-05-03: removed delisted Hanbit-Nano due to lack of orbital launch date
-05-03: Skyrora XL now announced for early 2023
-05-07: mentioned Reaction Dynamics launcher
-05-19: moved Vikram up from 2024 to 2023+
-06-01: moved Simorgh to the "unclear" section
-06-23: shifted expectation for Hapith V, Spectrum, SL1 and Eris by +1 year
-06-24: delisted VLM-1, which is now announced for 2025
-06-25: TiSpace Hapith V => ATSpace Kestrel
-07-11: OS-M has been canceled / replaced by OS-L



New smallsat launchers - first successful orbital flight since thread opening:

2018-01  ...  Electron     US/NZ     Rocket Lab
2018-03  ...  SS-520       Japan     IHI/JAXA
2019-07  ...  Hyperbola-1  China     iSpace
2019-08  ...  Jielong-1    China     Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020-04  ...  Qased        Iran      (military)
2020-11  ...  Ceres-1      China     Galactic Energy
2021-01  ...  LauncherOne  US        Virgin Orbit
2021-11  ...  Rocket 3     US        Astra

Launch expected [announced] NET:     (+ = very ambitious schedule or unclear date)

2022  [2022]  SSLV         India     ISRO (state-owned) - launch thread
2022  [2022]  Aventura I   Argentina Tlon
2022  [2022]  Kuaizhou-11  China     ExPace (public/private)
2022  [2022]  Firefly α    US        Firefly            - launch thread
2022  [2022]  RS1          US        ABL                - launch thread
2022+ [2022+] Zoljanah     Iran      (military)
2022+ [2022]  Terran 1     US        Relativity         - launch thread

2023  [2022]  Rocket 4     US        Astra
2023  [2022+] Qaem         Iran      (military?)
2023  [2022+] Prime        UK/Den    Orbex
2023+ [2023]  Skyrora XL   UK/Ukr    Skyrora
2023+ [2022]  Kairos       Japan     Space One / Canon
2023+ [2022]  Vikram       India     Skyroot

2024  [2022]  Spectrum     Germany   ISAR Aerospace
2024  [2022]  RFA One      Germany   RFA / OHB
2024  [2022]  Agnibaan     India     Agnikul
2024+ [2022]  Kestrel      Aus/Twn   ATSpace / TiSpace
2024+ [2023]  Hyperbola-2  China     iSpace

2025  [2023]  SL1          Germany   HyImpulse
2025  [2023]  Eris         Australia Gilmour

Intentionally not listed:

- ARCA EcoRocket [2022], too dubious
- C6 Launch [2022], too dubious
- Innospace Hanbit-Nano [2022], just a suborbital stage test
- Bellatrix Chetak [2023], too unclear if this will ever launch
- Phantom Daytona [2023], too dubious
- SES Hello-1 [2023], too dubious
- Vaya Dauntless [2023], too dubious
- iRocket Shockwave [2023], too dubious
- Equatorial Volans [2023], not funded
- Interstellar Zero [2023], not funded
- Rocket Pi Darwin-1 [2023], probably just a hop or suborbital test
- launches announced for ≥ 2024, too far away to evaluate:
  - Deep Blue Nebula-1 [2024]
  - Launcher Light [2024]
  - PLD Miura 5 [2024]
  - Reaction Dynamics launcher [2024]
  - Venture Orbital Zephyr [2024]
  - bluShift Red Dwarf [2024+]
  - IAE/DLR VLM-1 [2025]
  - SpinLaunch [2025]
  - Roketsan MUFS [2026]
  - Honda rocket [2030]
- rockets without an announced launch date
- projects without notable media coverage

Unclear - no update on launch date:

- Super Stripy derivate (X-Bow/US), announced for 2019
- Blue Whale 1 (Perigee/Korea), announced for 2020
- Newline-1 (Linkspace/China), announced for 2021 in 2019
- Ravn X (Aevum/US), announced for 2021 in 2019
- Xingtu-1 (Spacetrek/China), announced for 2021 in 2019
- Simorgh (Iran), no news since failure in Dec. 2021

Canceled:

- Boeing XS-1 (US) - not launched
- Zhuque-1 (Landspace/China) - one failed orbital launch attempt
- Vector-R and -H (US) - no orbital launch attempts
- OS-M (OneSpace/China) - one failed orbital launch attempt
« Last Edit: 07/28/2022 05:43 am by PM3 »
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

 

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