I suspect the real issue is that more than a few of these companies launch with really big dreams and then, over years of little progress, side slowly down the ladder into oblivion. Behaviour like that is really tricky to capture in a list without high-quality inside knowledge of each company and where they are really at - not just their press releases.I notice the list started in 2015. That's a pretty good run! Are you volunteering, JEF_300??
Quote from: CameronD on 10/03/2021 10:10 pmI suspect the real issue is that more than a few of these companies launch with really big dreams and then, over years of little progress, side slowly down the ladder into oblivion. Behaviour like that is really tricky to capture in a list without high-quality inside knowledge of each company and where they are really at - not just their press releases.I notice the list started in 2015. That's a pretty good run! Are you volunteering, JEF_300??Well, I'm much more likely to setup a Google Sheets spreadsheet that people can comment on than to try to run a list fully on the forum. I probably wouldn't update it myself much at all, just let you guys suggest updates as you see that they're needed, and then approve them. And then maybe I'd take a screenshot and post that on here once every two months or something. I don't know that I'm volunteering to do that just yet, but you can probably tell that I'm thinking about it semi-seriously.
One thing that might help back up that sort of judgement is justifying it in more detail. I know once or twice, I was unsure why PM3 made a particular decision with regards to placement, and they were able to give some links to support their choices. Putting that information into the post itself may make people more comfortable with those decisions, and also give them the sources they need to come to their own conclusions. This does make it more time-consuming to create and maintain the list, of course, and I'm not sure how the formatting would work: one link per entry may not be enough, especially if further discussion were necessary to explain why you do or don't entirely believe that source.
Quote from: Comga on 10/02/2021 02:56 pmMy primary issue with PM3’s list is that there could be an easier way to find the most recent update, which is fun to read even if one doesn’t follow this thread every day.My list is suspended due to ringsider's criticism of my methology. I based it on the launch dates published by the rocket builders*, which he (correctly) percieved as disinformation. The purpose of those dates is mostly collecting naive investor's money and snatching launch contracts, not informing about a real launch schedule.(* with some minor reality adjustments by my own estimates)Still, it was fun to maintain the list, and it was better than nothing. If there is some consensus here that the list should be continued they way it was, I could do that and put it into a separate thread.
My primary issue with PM3’s list is that there could be an easier way to find the most recent update, which is fun to read even if one doesn’t follow this thread every day.
So what does this tell us?
Looks good! Tiny update: As announced, Hapith V launch from Southern Launch's facility in South Australia was supposed to happen before 31 December this year, but is currently held up awaiting approvals from various powers that be.
Quote from: CameronD on 10/07/2021 12:28 amLooks good! Tiny update: As announced, Hapith V launch from Southern Launch's facility in South Australia was supposed to happen before 31 December this year, but is currently held up awaiting approvals from various powers that be.Was that Hapith V, or a second attempt at Hapith I?
Relativity’s Josh Brost on the inevitable question about small launch vehicle oversupply: 150+ ventures working on launches, but far smaller number have raised sufficient funding. Optimistic each one that develops a vehicle could have big enough market to survive. #satinnovation
For everyone who wants to continue maintaining these lists, here's a recent comprehensive survey of smallsat launchers presented at the 35th Small Satellite Conference in August (contains big lists of companies and their proposed launch vehicles):Small Launchers in a Pandemic World - 2021 Edition of the Annual Industry SurveyAlso attached below for posterity.
Quote from: trimeta on 10/07/2021 12:37 amQuote from: CameronD on 10/07/2021 12:28 amLooks good! Tiny update: As announced, Hapith V launch from Southern Launch's facility in South Australia was supposed to happen before 31 December this year, but is currently held up awaiting approvals from various powers that be.Was that Hapith V, or a second attempt at Hapith I?VS02 = Hapith I, VS03 = Hapith V - both (maybe) before their permit expires
Meanwhile, work continues on the three-stage Hapith-5 smallsat launcher, which Chen said is scheduled to make its maiden flight “around the third quarter of 2022.” He said the first flight will carry a 150-kilogram satellite to sun-synchronous orbit. The vehicle will eventually carry 300 kilograms of satellite payload to SSO.
Here's another one from Australia. Orbit Industries to air launch of a solid rocket into orbit in 2024. The carrier aircraft is called Orbit Boy."Emerging Australian space company Orbit Industries (OI) is developing an 'Uber'-like on-demand launch service, and seeking $3 million from investors before an expected launch in 2024."https://www.spaceconnectonline.com.au/operations/5021-australian-startup-orbit-industries-develops-uber-like-launch-services"In addition, Orbit’s team comprises Lyubomyr Sabadosh (Managing Director of the advisory board), Volodymyr Usov (Director) and Yurii Alekseev (Founder), who were all former Chairmen of Ukraine’s State Space Agency and have a combined experience of 150 successful launches completed with the agency."https://stockhead.com.au/tech/meet-orbit-industries-the-aussie-space-tech-company-set-to-become-the-uber-of-space/https://www.linkedin.com/company/orbit-industries
Orbit Boy (UK) and Italspazio (Italy) signed an agreement to jointly develop an Air-Launch Space System for the delivery of microsatellites into Orbit from the territory of Italy, based on the ground infrastructure of the Comiso Air Base.
Skyrora-XL to be launched in 2022 from Shetlands:https://twitter.com/Skyrora_Ltd/status/1447835867364663299
Announced first launch of Terran 1:2018-03: "late 2020" (in ~31 months)2019-04: "very end of 2020" (in 19 months)2019-10: "early 2021" (in ~16 months)2020-03: "fall 2021" (in ~20 months)2021-08: "early 2022 (in ~6 months)This timeline is too bumpy to project it into the future. Clearly the rocket will not launch in early 2022, but when?Firefly milestones:- initial 2nd stage static fire in April 2019- initial 1st stage static fire in Jan. 2020- first launch attempt in September 2021Relativity is still before all that, they have just started tank testing, not integrated any stage. Development process may be different than at Firefly, but still ... a launch in 2022 looks very ambitious to me. Did I miss some hidden magic at Relativity?
Any company founded in 2018 saying they will be orbital by 2021 or 2022 is not to be taken seriously.
