Countdown to new smallsat launchers

[trimeta]

Smallsats failure more often than traditional large satellites with 8% lost due to LV failure.
I've only got this chart to go off, don't have access to article. Not sure if that 8% is LV failures of large LVs doing rideshares. Small LV failures would account for very few losses as there is only Electron's two recent failures and odd new small LV on maiden flights.

Small LVs fail more often but then again most are still going through their maiden flights, while large LVs have been around lot longer and very few of them clean sheet designs. Most took flight proven HW from previous generation LVs, F9 included.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1397935426376175619?s=19

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk

I wonder if he was including Vega as a "smallsat launch vehicle"...that would add a couple more launch vehicle-related failures. Actually, given the time horizon (since 2000), the Falcon 1 is probably included too.

[trimeta]

X-Bow Systems' website, which used to have a logo and literally nothing else...now has a generic Website Under Construction image and nothing else. I don't know if that makes them more or less likely to still exist.

For context, I believe X-Bow Systems are the current holders of the IP for the SPARK/Super Strypi rocket, but despite a test launch in 2015, there doesn't seem to be a lot of public evidence that it still exists, either.

[russianhalo117]

X-Bow Systems' website, which used to have a logo and literally nothing else...now has a generic Website Under Construction image and nothing else. I don't know if that makes them more or less likely to still exist.

For context, I believe X-Bow Systems are the current holders of the IP for the SPARK/Super Strypi rocket, but despite a test launch in 2015, there doesn't seem to be a lot of public evidence that it still exists, either.

They had some R&D awards. No evidence of ever planning to fly anything at this time.

[PM3]

X-Bow Systems' website, which used to have a logo and literally nothing else...now has a generic Website Under Construction image and nothing else. I don't know if that makes them more or less likely to still exist.

Website is back and says "A Solid Revolution", obviously referring to the solid engines of Super Stripy.

[trimeta]

X-Bow Systems' website, which used to have a logo and literally nothing else...now has a generic Website Under Construction image and nothing else. I don't know if that makes them more or less likely to still exist.

Website is back and says "A Solid Revolution", obviously referring to the solid engines of Super Stripy.

So much for my hope that they were working on building out a website that actually said anything...now it's back to how it was previously.

(Obviously they could still be building out a real website and just flip a switch to start using it when ready, but a visible Under Construction page gave me some hope they may actually have been doing this.)

[PM3]

Update 06-30: Firefly slips to Q3; ABL RS1 launch date is unclear; Prime, Eris and Spectrum likely slip to 2023; Space One (Canon) rocket is named "Kairos"; added Rocket 4, Skyrora and RFA One
Update 07-02: added Zero to "intentionally not listed"

Smallsat launcher schedule / first (successful) orbital flight since thread opening:

2018-01  Electron      US/NZ     Rocket Lab
2018-03  SS-520        Japan     IHI/JAXA
2019-07  Hyperbola-1   China     iSpace
2019-08  Jielong-1     China     Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020-04  Qased         Iran      (military)
2020-11  Ceres-1       China     Galactic Energy
2021-01  LauncherOne   US        Virgin Orbit

Announced or expected (NET)

2021-Q3  Rocket 3      US        Astra
2021-Q3  Firefly α     US/Ukr    Firefly
2021-Q4  SSLV          India     ISRO (state-owned)
2021     Kuaizhou-11   China     ExPace (state-owned)
2021     RS1           US        ABL
2021     Simorgh       Iran      ISA (state-owned)
2021     Zoljanah      Iran      (military?)
2021     OS-M          China     OneSpace
2021     Jielong-2     China     Chinarocket (state-owned)
2021     Nebula-1      China     Deep Blue

2022     Terran 1      US        Relativity
2022     Kairos        Japan     Space One / Canon
2022     Vikram        India     Skyroot
2022     Rocket 4      US        Astra

2023     Prime         UK        Orbex
2023     Spectrum      Germany   ISAR Aerospace
2023     Eris          Australia Gilmour
2023     Skyrora XL    UK/Ukr    Skyrora
2023     RFA One       Germany   RFA / OHB

Intentionally not listed:

- ARCA EcoRocket (2021-Q3), too dubious
- Aevum Ravn (2021), too dubious
- HyImpulse SL1 (2023) => NET 2024 with usual delays
- Interstellar Zero (2023) => NET 2024 with usual delays

Unclear - no update on launch date:

- Super Stripy derivate (X-Bow/US), announced for 2019
- Blue Whale 1 (Perigee/Korea), announced for 2020
- Hapith V (Tispace/Taiwan), announced for 2020
- Newline-1 (Linkspace/China), announced for 2021 in early 2019

Canceled:

- Boeing XS-1
- Zhuque-1 (Landspace/China)

[Fmedici]

Interstellar Technologies plans to have the maiden launch of their orbital rocket Zero in 2023 (they talk about that here.

[Danderman]

Back in the 1990s, I had a website devoted to NewSpace companies, mostly startup launch firms. There were lots, it would be interesting to find that old site.

If you had told me that none of the companies would even attempt an orbital launch, I would have been shocked. Obviously, with some companies this time around already having launched, we are far ahead of the last generation. But, the large number of companies compared to launches is reminiscent to some degree.

When AMROC attempted a launch in 1989(?), I thought that there would be many further commercial NewSpace launches in the near term. I had no idea that would be it until SpaceX and the XPrize. Yeah, I know that the Roton ATV flew around a bit, but that doesn’t count.

About 1995, I went to an exhibition of small launchers in LA. There were many exhibitors, and in those days, it was common to propose an Atlas vernier engine for a launcher, since there was a junkyard that sold them. But, almost no rockets from that exhibition actually flew. Space is hard.

[high road]

The new launchers to launch in the remainder of 2021 outnumber the total number of new launchers so far. It'll be interesting to see how many actually succeed.

Also important: so far there are no clear commercially successful small launchers since the opening of this thread.

[M.E.T.]

Also important: so far there are no clear commercially successful small launchers since the opening of this thread.

Important point.

[CameronD]

The new launchers to launch in the remainder of 2021 outnumber the total number of new launchers so far. It'll be interesting to see how many actually succeed.

Also important: so far there are no clear commercially successful small launchers since the opening of this thread.

Also important: there are likely to be others out there (including some on the list already) who are too publicity-averse to tell anyone what they're up to in this space until they actually get something off of the launch pad - simply because they're "new" (untried, unproven) and widespread reports of "failure" would see the end of whatever meagre funding they already have.

[TrevorMonty]

The new launchers to launch in the remainder of 2021 outnumber the total number of new launchers so far. It'll be interesting to see how many actually succeed.

Also important: so far there are no clear commercially successful small launchers since the opening of this thread.

Also important: there are likely to be others out there (including some on the list already) who are too publicity-averse to tell anyone what they're up to in this space until they actually get something off of the launch pad - simply because they're "new" (untried, unproven) and widespread reports of "failure" would see the end of whatever meagre funding they already have.

Anybody investing in new LV needs to plan for 1-2 failures in first few flights.

Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[CameronD]

Also important: there are likely to be others out there (including some on the list already) who are too publicity-averse to tell anyone what they're up to in this space until they actually get something off of the launch pad - simply because they're "new" (untried, unproven) and widespread reports of "failure" would see the end of whatever meagre funding they already have.

Anybody investing in new LV needs to plan for 1-2 failures in first few flights.

Of course.. but that doesn't mean we should expect to know about them.

I see three different approaches to smallsat launch:
1. High Ground:  Advertise, advertise, with flashy websites and years-out wild predictions they know (or should be expected to know) they'll never achieve - unless they invent new physics or win the lottery.  (The Flash-In-The-Pan type)
2. Middle Ground: Let everyone ride along with both the success and the failures. (The hobbyist-gone-serious type)
3. Low Ground: Quietly test, fund, test, promising little but achieving much but only broadcasting their successes to the world whilst, if at all possible, hiding the failures under the nearest rock.  (The Dark Horse)

I'm sure each have their own reasons for choosing the approach they do, but unfortunately only the High and Middle types will make it onto the Update List before they launch - meaning there may be others out there who might just surprise you.

[Kryten]

 Your 'Dark Horse' scenario isn't really possible. Astra tried it, but we still knew a lot about them from public sources before they 'went public', especially as they approached orbital attempts. You might avoid talking to the press, but you can't avoid talking to the FAA or FCC.

[CameronD]

Your 'Dark Horse' scenario isn't really possible. Astra tried it, but we still knew a lot about them from public sources before they 'went public', especially as they approached orbital attempts. You might avoid talking to the press, but you can't avoid talking to the FAA or FCC.

Like I said, these companies are all too publicity-averse to tell anyone what they're up to in this space until they actually get something off of the launch pad (or, like Astra, they fail trying).  Sure, they need to tell SOMEONE beforehand, but they don't necessarily need to tell the world.  If they did, there'd be no need for this forum. ..and now, back to the sleuthing.

[high road]

The new launchers to launch in the remainder of 2021 outnumber the total number of new launchers so far. It'll be interesting to see how many actually succeed.

Also important: so far there are no clear commercially successful small launchers since the opening of this thread.

On the other hand, 80% of the orbital launches so far this year have been on Long March, Falcon 9 and Soyuz. Over a third of the remainder were emerging smallsat launchers. Combined with the 2 older smallsat launchers, that's half of the remainder.

All of the other big launchers combined makes up the other 7 launches, 10% of the total, down from fluctuating between 40 and 50% in the past. So it just seems everyone but the first three is getting pounded, and smallsat launchers less so than the others (but they don't have the deep pockets of the more established companies).

(situation on the first of august)

[Steven Pietrobon]

Here's another one from Australia. Orbit Industries to air launch of a solid rocket into orbit in 2024. The carrier aircraft is called  Orbit Boy.

"Emerging Australian space company Orbit Industries (OI) is developing an 'Uber'-like on-demand launch service, and seeking $3 million from investors before an expected launch in 2024."

https://www.spaceconnectonline.com.au/operations/5021-australian-startup-orbit-industries-develops-uber-like-launch-services

"In addition, Orbit’s team comprises Lyubomyr Sabadosh (Managing Director of the advisory board), Volodymyr Usov (Director) and Yurii Alekseev (Founder), who were all former Chairmen of Ukraine’s State Space Agency and have a combined experience of 150 successful launches completed with the agency."

https://stockhead.com.au/tech/meet-orbit-industries-the-aussie-space-tech-company-set-to-become-the-uber-of-space/

https://www.linkedin.com/company/orbit-industries

[libra]

The aircraft vaguely looks like an Il-76 - a rather ubiquitous and relatively cheap / plentiful military cargo. But what has happened to the cockpit ? do they intend to fly a drone Il-76 ? 

[CameronD]

Time to add Taiwanese company tiSPACE's "Hapith I" to the list??  Potentially 2 launches from the Southern Launch's new Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex before December 2021.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46926.msg2281329#msg2281329

[trimeta]

Time to add Taiwanese company tiSPACE's "Hapith I" to the list??  Potentially 2 launches from the Southern Launch's new Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex before December 2021.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46926.msg2281329#msg2281329

Hapith I is suborbital, right? I thought that was why it was omitted, while the orbital Hapith V is listed (under the "Unclear - no update on launch date" section).