Author Topic: Countdown to new smallsat launchers  (Read 419767 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #720 on: 05/18/2020 11:16 pm »
Quote
SpaceX rideshare program putting downward pressure on prices
by Sandra Erwin — May 18, 2020

Planet VP Mike Safyan: “We are seeing launch providers starting to get more creative.”

WASHINGTON — SpaceX for years has been a driving force in lowering the cost of launching large satellites to orbit. The rideshare program the company started in August is now also putting downward pressure on the cost of launching small satellites.

https://spacenews.com/spacex-rideshare-program-putting-downward-pressure-on-prices/

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #721 on: 05/19/2020 12:19 am »
Quote
SpaceX rideshare program putting downward pressure on prices
by Sandra Erwin — May 18, 2020

Planet VP Mike Safyan: “We are seeing launch providers starting to get more creative.”

WASHINGTON — SpaceX for years has been a driving force in lowering the cost of launching large satellites to orbit. The rideshare program the company started in August is now also putting downward pressure on the cost of launching small satellites.

https://spacenews.com/spacex-rideshare-program-putting-downward-pressure-on-prices/
"
It’s the equivalent of taking the bus versus an Uber. If there are no buses going to the desired orbit, one option is to pay a higher price for a dedicated launch. Another is to hire space tugs that are now being offered as a service.
“That can get you that last mile while still taking advantage of the bigger rideshare rockets,” said Safyan. “I think we’ll see more of that as years go on.”
"
Momentus Aerospace is one company offering space tugs.

Offline Mardlamock

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #722 on: 05/19/2020 01:47 am »
Quote
SpaceX rideshare program putting downward pressure on prices
by Sandra Erwin — May 18, 2020

Planet VP Mike Safyan: “We are seeing launch providers starting to get more creative.”

WASHINGTON — SpaceX for years has been a driving force in lowering the cost of launching large satellites to orbit. The rideshare program the company started in August is now also putting downward pressure on the cost of launching small satellites.

https://spacenews.com/spacex-rideshare-program-putting-downward-pressure-on-prices/
"
It’s the equivalent of taking the bus versus an Uber. If there are no buses going to the desired orbit, one option is to pay a higher price for a dedicated launch. Another is to hire space tugs that are now being offered as a service.
“That can get you that last mile while still taking advantage of the bigger rideshare rockets,” said Safyan. “I think we’ll see more of that as years go on.”
"
Momentus Aerospace is one company offering space tugs.

D-Orbit, Epic, and some few others are also building tugs.
"And I heard, as it were, the noise of thunder"

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #723 on: 05/25/2020 08:05 pm »
Smallsat launcher schedule / first (successful) orbital flight since thread opening:

2018-01  Electron      US/NZ   Rocket Lab
2019-07  Hyperbola-1   China   iSpace
2019-08  Jielong-1     China   Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020-04  Qased         Iran    (military)

Planned or expected (NET)

2020-06  Kuaizhou-11   China   ExPace (state-owned)
2020-06  Ceres-1       China   Galactic Energy
2020-06  Simorgh       Iran    (state-owned)

2020-Q3  Rocket        US      Astra
2020-Q3  Firefly α     US/Ukr  Firefly

2020     SSLV          India   ISRO (state-owned)
2020     OS-M1         China   OneSpace
2020     LauncherOne   US      Virgin
2020     Blue Whale 1  Korea   Perigee
2020     RS1           US      ABL
2020     Jielong-2     China   Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020     Nebula-1      China   Deep Blue
2020?    Super Strypi  US      X-Bow

2021     Newline-1     China   LinkSpace -- reusable booster ♲
2021     (unnamed)     Japan   Space One
2021?    Hapith V      Taiwan  TiSpace


All the rest (realistically) 2022+, including Relativity/Terran 1.

Failed: Vector, Boeing XS-1
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #724 on: 05/25/2020 08:46 pm »
Firefly should have first attempt this year. Virgin hopefully No2 in few months after working through todays failure.


Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #725 on: 06/29/2020 05:38 pm »
Cross Post:
Updated: First launcher in the RFA family designated RFA-1:


Quote
RFA-1 is a small liquid fueled orbital launch vehicle, which is being developed by Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), Germany, a subsidiary of OHB System.
...


LINK: https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/rfa-1.htm

First launch targeted for 2021.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #726 on: 07/18/2020 10:54 pm »
Easy come easy go.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/rocket-report-another-chinese-launch-failure-minotaur-iv-soars/

Small-launch contracts diverted to small-business loans. The $116 million that the US Department of Defense set aside for small-launch contracts under the Defense Production Act have been redirected to other priorities, SpaceNews reports. The Pentagon had approved funding the small-launch contracts but, at the last minute, decided to shift the money to small-business loan programs that were considered a more urgent priority. It is unlikely that those contracts will be awarded any time soon, the US Air Force's top procurement official Will Roper said.

DoD says of the funds: You can't aevum ... About a month ago, the military announced it intended to award contracts to six small-launch providers financially impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. On July 1 DoD withdrew the contracts that would have been awarded to Aevum, Astra, X-Bow, Rocket Lab, Space Vector, and VOX Space to launch two rideshare missions over the next 24 months. Awarding the launch contracts now will require additional funding from Congress. (submitted by Ken the Bin)


Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #727 on: 07/28/2020 03:39 am »
Another NZ launch vehicle company.
I read about Dawn a couple years but forgot about them. In mean time they've been flying small demo rocket plane. Just released MK11 Aurora which will be capable of multiple suborbital flights a day to 100km.
This should start earning them revenue.
ESA has helped with engine development.

Next step build bigger version to deploy 2nd stage for orbital missions.

Finding experienced talent in NZ shouldn't be problem with RL in country.

https://www.dawnaerospace.com/deliver


Offline john smith 19

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #728 on: 07/28/2020 07:17 am »
Another NZ launch vehicle company.
I read about Dawn a couple years but forgot about them. In mean time they've been flying small demo rocket plane. Just released MK11 Aurora which will be capable of multiple suborbital flights a day to 100km.
This should start earning them revenue.
ESA has helped with engine development.

Next step build bigger version to deploy 2nd stage for orbital missions.

Finding experienced talent in NZ shouldn't be problem with RL in country.

https://www.dawnaerospace.com/deliver
Given how much XCOR struggled to get their Lynx design to flight status they are making some bold claims about what they can do and how. It looks like it's too small for a pilot so some kind of drone?

[EDIT and it's an HTP/Kero design as well.

Interesting how much funding they were able to attract.  Looks like that launch-on-demand concept might have some traction ]
« Last Edit: 07/28/2020 07:34 am by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 2027?. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #729 on: 07/28/2020 10:34 am »
Dawn also have 0.5N thruster they are selling for cubesats, another potential revenue stream while they develop MK 11 Aurora. Aurora will start test flights this year with couple jet engines as rocket engine is still being developed. Fuel is H2O2 and kerosene, good reliable fuel combination for small engines.


Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #730 on: 07/29/2020 07:30 pm »
https://twitter.com/spacenews_inc/status/1288482166062682113

Quote
.@RocketLab, @Virgin_Orbit and @Firefly_Space join @jeff_foust on Monday to discuss the state of the small launch industry. Register now to save your spot.

https://spacenews.com/spacenews-at-smallsat-webinars-register-now-to-reserve-your-spot/

Offline Comga

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #731 on: 07/30/2020 03:35 am »
Another NZ launch vehicle company.
I read about Dawn a couple years but forgot about them. In mean time they've been flying small demo rocket plane. Just released MK11 Aurora which will be capable of multiple suborbital flights a day to 100km.
This should start earning them revenue.
ESA has helped with engine development.

Next step build bigger version to deploy 2nd stage for orbital missions.

Finding experienced talent in NZ shouldn't be problem with RL in country.

https://www.dawnaerospace.com/deliver

Talk about subscale!
The payload is described as “3U” but isn’t the 3U standard 10x10x36 cm, not 30 cm?
That’s the rule we used when planning our 3U (& 6U & 12U) spacecraft proposals and what’s available from suppliers. 
This is more like 2.5U
That’s a strange choice and departure from what’s common these days.
Surely it’s not an oversight.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #732 on: 07/30/2020 06:34 am »
3U cubesat specification is 10x10x34.05 cm.

https://www.cubesat.org/s/cds_rev13_final2.pdf
« Last Edit: 07/30/2020 06:39 am by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #733 on: 07/30/2020 10:44 am »
Given its suborbital payload not cubesat that will be deployed into orbit sizing isn't that important.

Offline Comga

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #734 on: 07/31/2020 06:11 pm »
Given its suborbital payload not cubesat that will be deployed into orbit sizing isn't that important.

That’s highly likely but THEY are the ones describing the payload capacity as “3U” despite not actually following the cubesat standard. They could have said “3L” or “3000 cm^3” rather than “3U”.
To me this indicates a lack of comprehensive planning.
It always amazes me what can garner $95M in funding. There has to be so much we have not seen here.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #735 on: 08/03/2020 08:59 pm »
https://twitter.com/spacenews_inc/status/1288482166062682113

Quote
.@RocketLab, @Virgin_Orbit and @Firefly_Space join @jeff_foust on Monday to discuss the state of the small launch industry. Register now to save your spot.

https://spacenews.com/spacenews-at-smallsat-webinars-register-now-to-reserve-your-spot/

Here’s the roundtable


Offline abaddon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #736 on: 08/14/2020 04:44 pm »
From latest Planet announcement:

SkySats 19-21 To Launch On SpaceX Falcon 9 Rideshare Mission
Mike Safyan | August 14, 2020

Planet is set to launch three more new SkySats (SkySats 19-21) into Low Earth Orbit on August 18th (date subject to change), rounding out the fleet of SkySats already in operations and joining SkySats 16-18 that successfully launched aboard the SpaceX Falcon 9 in June.

Planet SkySats 1-15 operate in Sun Synchronous Orbits, a specific type of Low Earth Orbit that results in the Earth’s surface always being illuminated by the Sun at the same angle when the satellite is capturing imagery. Half of the SkySats currently pass overhead in a morning crossing plane, while the other half moves in an afternoon crossing plane, so together they provide the twice-daily coverage of anywhere on Earth.

Both sets of new SkySats, 16-18 and 19-21, will operate in a “mid-inclination” orbit of 53 degrees that complements the sun synchronous fleet, and will offer more targeted coverage and imaging capacity in the latitude bands between +53 degrees and -53 degrees where the majority of human activity occurs. By taking advantage of SpaceX’s rideshare program, we were able to get these satellites launched much faster compared to a dedicated launch. In addition, by splitting the payload across two launches, we’re able to phase the mid-inclination SkySats into their respective planes much faster as well, all of which results in Planet’s customers benefiting from these enhanced products much sooner than any other provider can offer.

SkySats 19-21 will be launched aboard SpaceX’s Falcon 9, a two-stage reusable rocket that has successfully flown satellites and cargo over 80 times to orbit. They will do so as rideshare payloads on SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, and will launch from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Base in Florida.

The rapid launch of SkySats 16-21, as well as the development of our enhanced 50 cm imagery, are just a few examples of how Planet continues to push the envelope to provide industry-leading geospatial offerings that continuously improve over time.

Photo: Planet SkySats 19-21 mounted on the Starlink launch adapter, ready for flight. Image provided by SpaceX.
Planet is just one specific customer with specific needs, but it's interesting to see some of the possibilities of frequent rideshare launches as compared to dedicated rides not just claimed by a provider but called out by a customer.

Offline high road

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #737 on: 08/14/2020 06:17 pm »
Another data point that Starlink's many launch opportunities are a bigger threat to dedicated smallsat launchers than F9 launches dedicated to smallsats. Which was pretty much acknowledged by Peter Beck's statements that the ability to launch quickly is more important for many customers than the price tag.

Offline su27k

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #738 on: 08/15/2020 03:30 am »
There's another piece on SpaceNews about possible pressure SpaceX's offering is putting on smallsat launchers: Government’s role in the small launch market not quite black and white

Quote
A rush of private investment into the small launch industry in recent years was fueled by the belief that there would be both significant commercial and government demand, she noted. But Starzyk argued that circumstances have changed. “There’s no commercial market that is going to support multiple small launchers by any means.”

The most disruptive event has been SpaceX offering rideshare services at a cadence and price point that small launch providers could not possibly compete against, she said.

A key selling point for small launchers is that it give satellite operators more control over orbit and schedules compared to secondary payload opportunities that traditionally have been few and far between. “That advantage is wiped out by SpaceX offering flights every two weeks,” she added. “SpaceX answers most of the wants of the smallsat community. So where is the value added of the small launch on the commercial side?”

Offline ringsider

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #739 on: 08/15/2020 08:36 am »
There's another piece on SpaceNews about possible pressure SpaceX's offering is putting on smallsat launchers: Government’s role in the small launch market not quite black and white

Quote
A rush of private investment into the small launch industry in recent years was fueled by the belief that there would be both significant commercial and government demand, she noted. But Starzyk argued that circumstances have changed. “There’s no commercial market that is going to support multiple small launchers by any means.”

The most disruptive event has been SpaceX offering rideshare services at a cadence and price point that small launch providers could not possibly compete against, she said.

A key selling point for small launchers is that it give satellite operators more control over orbit and schedules compared to secondary payload opportunities that traditionally have been few and far between. “That advantage is wiped out by SpaceX offering flights every two weeks,” she added. “SpaceX answers most of the wants of the smallsat community. So where is the value added of the small launch on the commercial side?”

Honestly it's hard to read these so-called analysts. Still they are parroting the "more than 100 small launchers" nonsense. Most of those lists are badly out of date anyway, even if it was true: they still contain long dead efforts like Vector, Mishaal, Bagaveev, CubeCab, Orbital Access, S3, Ripple, etc. etc.

There was something posted on the ABL forum the other day, from one of their new VC investors, that is much more insightful and accurate:-

https://medium.com/@ethanjb/bu...nt-into-abl-space-a8fe11ed6d4d

The simple fact is, as this forum proves in spades, that it's really easy to talk big about making a small launcher, and quite easy to take small steps like Arca building weird Arduino-controlled experiments, Launcher with their engines, and Skyrora making a lot of noise about launching their little rockets. These guys are like tourists in Las Vegas playing the $5-$10 blackjack tables.

But to step up to an orbital launcher needs a large amount of dollars, and there are only a few players sitting at the high stakes $50,000 table.

Rocket Lab is already there. Relativity is cash rich but is perhaps building on the sand of a weird technical choice. Firefly has a tame Ukrainian dating baron bankrolling the CEO. ABL has about $90m from various sources, but is late to the game. Virgin Orbit is fairly secure even if the main Virgin group has issues. Astra is on the ragged edge of the group, and has some critical moments ahead to stay at the table.

Even at this level, with large financial resources, some of these will fail. Some have made bad bets, some are running low on chips, some have used up all their luck.

But let say some survive. How do those guys compete against this supposed killer 2 week schedule from SpaceX being vaunted by the silly analyst at Bryce? And why is SpaceX even interested in that market?

Answer 1: Easy. Look at SpaceX's schedule and notice the orbital destination.

Answer 2: SpaceX wants to block a small launcher firm like Rocket Lab competing for USG resources and contracts that might allow them to be a future heavy launch competitor. So they take away their customers. It is actually an anti-competitive move by SpaceX.

And anyway, this analysis is very US-centric. There are valid reasons why China or Europe wants a small launcher, and they would not be too worried about competition from SpaceX. Those players, like OneSpace, Linkspace and ExSpace, and PLD, Isar Aerospace and OrbEx are offering something different: another space launch option that is not controlled by the USA. And some of them seem to have very modest business plans, or support from the deep pockets of state backers, which means they don't require hundreds of launches and market domination to be successful.

Really it is sad how awful this analysis is, and people pay for it. You literally get better understanding reading the posts here on NSF.
« Last Edit: 08/15/2020 08:40 am by ringsider »

 

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