Author Topic: Countdown to new smallsat launchers  (Read 419759 times)

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #680 on: 12/10/2019 02:20 pm »
I look at it this way.  Responsive launch would most-likely be needed in an emergency, perhaps even war-time situation.  Why not use military (missile-based, solid-propellant, always-ready) systems to address this problem?

 - Ed Kyle
Because they are expensive, low performance (poor Isp Vs nearly any liquid system) and high accelerations (perfectly fine for warheads, not so good for general satellite launch).
Responsive launch implies national emergency.  Cost is not, should not be, the primary issue there.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/10/2019 02:21 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Blackjax

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #681 on: 12/13/2019 08:47 pm »
Looks like we have the first pricing I've seen about the Isar Spectrum and a reaffirmation that they are still targeting late 2021:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47876.msg2025111#msg2025111

Offline Blackjax

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #682 on: 12/24/2019 10:45 pm »
Whoa, where did this (tiSpace) come from?
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49583.msg2029701#msg2029701

Demo flight is sitting on the pad awaiting launch
Similar general price bracket per launch as an Electron
Substantially better payload capacity than an Electron
Substantially better cost per kg than an Electron
Not chinese so no unusual restrictions on flying USA payloads

If their demo launch goes well, Rocket Labs could be facing genuine competition sooner than expected.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #683 on: 12/25/2019 03:10 am »
Whoa, where did this (tiSpace) come from?
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49583.msg2029701#msg2029701

Demo flight is sitting on the pad awaiting launch
Similar general price bracket per launch as an Electron
Substantially better payload capacity than an Electron
Substantially better cost per kg than an Electron
Not chinese so no unusual restrictions on flying USA payloads

If their demo launch goes well, Rocket Labs could be facing genuine competition sooner than expected.

The "demo flight" that is sitting on the pad awaiting launch is not an orbital-class launch vehicle.  It's a sub-orbital vehicle.

This company claims a lot, but hasn't proven much yet.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #684 on: 12/25/2019 05:53 pm »
A successful launch doesn't mean they will be commercially active in near term. Need to have production facilities to build few LVs a year also suitable SSO launch site.

 Their launch site is in southern Taitung County, on the southeast coast, but you can't actually get to SSO from Taiwan because of overflight issues, so they are looking for a second launch site in Scandinavia or Australia.

I hope demo launch is a success.
« Last Edit: 12/25/2019 05:55 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline Comga

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #685 on: 12/25/2019 08:13 pm »
In the dedicated TiSpace thread it has been said that they don’t have a launch pad for orbital attempts. That post says TiSpace is in trouble for even proposing launching from the site on their web page.

They seem to be well financed by their extensive test equipment, and they have some functioning hybrid rocket engines/motors, but they have made many curious design choices and seem a long way from launching anything. I would put them in the middle tier among the 150 or so small launcher programs, just above the defunct ones and the ones with nothing but PowerPoints.
« Last Edit: 12/25/2019 10:16 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #686 on: 01/27/2020 09:36 am »
Smallsat launcher schedule / first (successful) orbital flight since thread opening:

2018-01  Electron      US/NZ   Rocket Lab
2019-07  Hyperbola-1   China   iSpace
2019-08  Jielong-1     China   Chinarocket (state-owned)

Planned or expected (NET)

2020-02  Rocket        US      Astra
2020-03  LauncherOne   US      Virgin
2020-03  Kuaizhou-11   China   ExPace (state-owned)

2020-Q2  SSLV          India   ISRO (state-owned)
2020-Q2  Ceres-1       China   Galactic Energy
2020-06  Simorgh       Iran    (state-owned)
2020-Q3  Firefly α     US/Ukr  Firefly

2020     OS-M1         China   OneSpace
2020     Blue Whale 1  Korea   Perigee
2020     RS1           US      ABL
2020     Jielong-2     China   Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020     Nebula-1      China   Deep Blue
2020?    Super Strypi  US      X-Bow

2021     Terran 1      US      Relativity
2021     Newline-1     China   LinkSpace -- reusable booster ♲
2021?    Hapith V      Taiwan  TiSpace


All the rest (realistically) 2022+.

No additions, but lots of delays since previous post three months ago.

Failed: Vector, Boeing XS-1

Updates
[2020-02-03: Astra Q1 => 02, LauncherOne Q1 => 03]
[2020-02-05: Firefly α Q2 => Q3]
[2020-02-06: Kuaizhou-11 slips from February due to Corona virus]
[2020-02-10: Simorgh 02 => 06 after failed launch; added Hapith V; marked reusability]
« Last Edit: 02/10/2020 05:12 pm by PM3 »
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #687 on: 02/03/2020 03:10 pm »

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-astra-rocket/
Astra orbital flight is NET February 21st. Not sure what to put it down as, this article just calls it 'Astra' and FAA licence is for flights of 'Rocket 3'.

Offline fhgfhhffjgdhjgcb

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #688 on: 02/06/2020 07:01 am »
mission statement: respect the rocket equation
launch Services: only to low earth orbit
market: launch Nanosatellite and  Microsatellite and small satellite.
conclusion 

 we are going to use off the shelf rocket engines for  Nanosatellite launch vehicle that will be called David one will be Air lunch.  from a civilian jet launch from the state of South Carolina.





yes I know this is very rough I just bought to post it for the heck of it hope you guys get a good laugh out of it

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #689 on: 02/19/2020 04:30 pm »

https://www.space.com/amp/orbex-rocket-factory-first-look-photos.html?__twitter_impression=true

Payload is 180kg not sure if that is LEO or SSO. 1stage is 6x7klbs. Plan to be reuseable, RL recovery efforts should give them some encouragement as the LVs are very close in size.

Some BS about their LVs fuel efficiency
" Each Prime rocket is approximately 50 times more fuel-efficient than other small-satellite launch vehicles, which use up to 440,000 lbs. (200,000 kg) of fossil fuels. "
Don't mention that other LV can also lift 50 times more mass to orbit.

Offline HeartofGold2030

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #690 on: 02/19/2020 04:50 pm »

https://www.space.com/amp/orbex-rocket-factory-first-look-photos.html?__twitter_impression=true

Payload is 180kg not sure if that is LEO or SSO. 1stage is 6x7klbs. Plan to be reuseable, RL recovery efforts should give them some encouragement as the LVs are very close in size.

Some BS about their LVs fuel efficiency
" Each Prime rocket is approximately 50 times more fuel-efficient than other small-satellite launch vehicles, which use up to 440,000 lbs. (200,000 kg) of fossil fuels. "
Don't mention that other LV can also lift 50 times more mass to orbit.

That payload statistic is definitely for SSO because they can’t actually launch to LEO from their planned launch site in Scotland.

Offline ZChris13

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #691 on: 02/25/2020 07:44 pm »
snip
That payload statistic is definitely for SSO because they can’t actually launch to LEO from their planned launch site in Scotland.
Most such SSO are a type of LEO.

Offline Comga

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #692 on: 02/25/2020 09:41 pm »
snip
That payload statistic is definitely for SSO because they can’t actually launch to LEO from their planned launch site in Scotland.
Most such SSO are a type of LEO.
Of course
All “Sun synchronous orbits“ are ”low Earth orbits” because above 1000 km the torque is too low and the required inclination for SSO goes through retrograde to non-existent.
But you know the distinction Trevor Monty was trying to make: SSO@ inc=93-97 deg vs LEO @ 0-~50 deg.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Ben

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #693 on: 02/26/2020 12:27 pm »
Robert X. Cringely claimed he was going to win the GLXP and turned out to be nothing but talk. He's now in the same place with smallsat launching:

https://www.cringely.com/2020/01/23/not-dead-yet-what-bob-cringely-has-been-up-to/

Quote
Eldorado will later this year begin launching into low earth orbit CubeSats up to 12 kilograms in weight.

We took 50-year-old ammonium perchlorate composite propellant (the same solid fuel used in the Space Shuttle’s strap-on boosters) and improved it using modern materials, processes, and some common sense. NO 3D printing! The result is a cheaper rocket that can sit on the shelf for years then be launched as-needed within hours.

Our rocket is eight times more efficient than the SS-520 and the ONLY difference is air launching. With continued solid fuel development we confidently expect our 1050 kg rocket to eventually put 40 kg in orbit — 27 times more efficient than the $4.4 million SS-520-5.

There’s actually plenty of clever IP inside Eldorado, but what mainly keeps another startup from just copying our work is the required fleet of Mach 2.2+ launch aircraft. We bought all of them, you see… all of them on the planet.

Entertainingly he's shown to be full of it in the comments: https://www.cringely.com/2020/01/23/not-dead-yet-what-bob-cringely-has-been-up-to/#comment-706363

Quote
I just got off the phone with Rick Svetkoff, the founder and owner of Starfighters Aerospace. Remember how earlier in this thread I mentioned there was a contact form on the Starfighters.net website? Well, I used it. And he got in touch with me.
 
To be blunt: Starfighters has NOT BEEN SOLD. There was never any negotiation for its sale, nor is there any potential of a sale in the future.
 
He did confirm that Eldorado was in TALKS to potentially PARTNER with Starfighters (as many other companies have done– see the Starfighters.net website for a list of companies, including CubeCab), but that the talks were preliminary only and there was no signing of any “term sheet”, which means that no money has changed hands, and there is no contract yet for any money to change hands.

It is enough to get him on Carlos's list, but like almost every entry on the list doesn't mean he'll get anywhere near orbit. Up thread I read some criticism of Carlos's list; I think it's important to remember that it's just a hobby project. There is value of tracking over time with a consistent criteria; all parties understand that it's a wide net and most of the things on the list will come to nothing. It would be much more useful to criticize the organizations that keep similar lists but add BS rankings and claim that they are useful for investors to subscribe to for $$$.

Attaching the photoshopped header image just because I find it hilarious. I used to work next to the Starfighters hangar, was always interesting to see them take off and fly around. Quite a smoky exhaust.

Offline Kosmos2001

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #694 on: 02/26/2020 01:54 pm »
I can't believe how private launcher startups are still able to convince investors for funding knowing the super-saturated launcher market in these days. In the next couple of years it would be interesting to see the bubble exploding.

Offline Comga

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #695 on: 02/26/2020 05:12 pm »
Is there an updated version of the original list?
It would be interesting to see it and compare it to previous versions, perhaps from the end of each of the three years since the OP.

After all this time there is one repeatedly launching small rocket (Rocketlab’s Electron),
a proven vehicle with no known customers (Pegasus),
two (?) successful demonstration launches from China (both of which stretch the definition of “private”) without second launches,
a few with assembled rockets closing in on debut (Astra, LauncherOne, others?)
a few failed attempts (Strypi?  Others?),
and a bunch of groups with various amounts of hardware.
edit: Then there are “efforts” with hot air and PowerPoint presentations.
« Last Edit: 02/26/2020 05:16 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline PM3

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #696 on: 02/26/2020 07:25 pm »
Is there an updated version of the original list?

U're aware of the list which is regularly posted and maintained in this thread? Last instance is 10 posts upwards.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline high road

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #697 on: 02/26/2020 08:12 pm »
Is there an updated version of the original list?
It would be interesting to see it and compare it to previous versions, perhaps from the end of each of the three years since the OP.

After all this time there is one repeatedly launching small rocket (Rocketlab’s Electron),
a proven vehicle with no known customers (Pegasus),
two (?) successful demonstration launches from China (both of which stretch the definition of “private”) without second launches,
a few with assembled rockets closing in on debut (Astra, LauncherOne, others?)
a few failed attempts (Strypi?  Others?),
and a bunch of groups with various amounts of hardware.
edit: Then there are “efforts” with hot air and PowerPoint presentations.

Are Minotaur I, Kuaizhou 1A and Long March 11 not included in your post because they're not private? Or is there another reason? The latter two launched a respectable number of times in 2019. Long March 11 and Minotaur 1 aren't on the list of this thread because they already launched before this thread started, but so did Pegasus. And Minotaur 1, unlike Pegasus, has another launch planned apparently.

I can't believe how private launcher startups are still able to convince investors for funding knowing the super-saturated launcher market in these days. In the next couple of years it would be interesting to see the bubble exploding.

Most of the companies on the list have no known hardware. They can fizzle on for years as an empty box without officially going out of business. The companies that launch regularly are either Chinese or have not yet demonstrated that their launch rate is limited by demand rather than vehicle production etc. The success of these companies will attract more money for a while longer. The only two companies with hardware that have visibly failed are Vector and Stratolaunch. One failure was blamed on an eccentric CEO and the other on the children of the founder not believing in their father's dream... Lots more spin left to get funding from more gullible investors. Especially for companies that haven't got any hardware yet.

Offline Comga

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #698 on: 02/27/2020 04:16 am »
Is there an updated version of the original list?

U're aware of the list which is regularly posted and maintained in this thread? Last instance is 10 posts upwards.

That WAS my question and I was not aware of it.
It would be great if there was one place to look for a link to the most recent update

Thank you.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Davidthefat

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #699 on: 02/27/2020 04:21 pm »
Is there an updated version of the original list?

U're aware of the list which is regularly posted and maintained in this thread? Last instance is 10 posts upwards.

That WAS my question and I was not aware of it.
It would be great if there was one place to look for a link to the most recent update

Thank you.

https://www.newspace.im/launchers Seems to have a list of companies.

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_3/

A smaller list, but this one only seems to have the more credible/better funded programs on the list.

 

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