Author Topic: Countdown to new smallsat launchers  (Read 419738 times)

Offline Tywin

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #540 on: 05/02/2019 05:49 pm »
The Ukraine/UK company is preparing for new tests...of her suborbital launcher...


https://www.skyrora.com/

Quote
Skyrora will make three test launches over the next 12 months, the first expected to take place over the next few months, as part of its effort to certify its Skyrora XL satellite launch vehicle that will be 10 metres tall and will be able to loft a 100 kilogram payload into low-Earth orbit. The company conducted one of its first tests near Evanton, Scotland, in August 2018 when it launched its SkyLark Nano sounding rocket to an altitude of 6 kilometres, reaching a speed of Mach 1.45.

https://spacewatch.global/2019/05/uks-skyrora-in-hunt-for-british-launch-sites-for-upcoming-rocket-tests/

Will see...




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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #541 on: 05/03/2019 08:35 am »
Will this be the first HTP/Kero rocket since Black Arrow?

1. Runs on Hydrogen Peroxide and Kerosene
2. Thrust at sea level: 30kN (3 tons)
3. Exhaust Velocity: 2,226 m/s (sea level), 2,662 m/s (in vacuum)
4. Max Payload − 90kg
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #542 on: 05/03/2019 09:05 am »
Skyrora XL specifications. Engine configuration is similar to Electron, but can deliver twice the payload at 320 kg.

FIRST STAGE Characteristics:
Propellant components: Hydrogen Peroxide and Kerosene
Thrust per engine: 70 kN (7 tons) (at sea level), 79.7 kN (8 tons) (in vacuum)
Exhaust Velocity: 2,454 m/s (at sea level), 2,794 m/s (in vacuum)
Specific impulse: 250.24 s (at sea level), 284.91 s (in vacuum)
Gross mass at launch: 44,611 kg
Dry mass of the stage: 2,600 kg
Total propellant mass: 32,065 kg
Engine type: 9 x liquid propellant rocket engines

SECOND STAGE Characteristics:
Propellant components: Hydrogen Peroxide and Kerosene
Thrust (in vacuum): 85.5 kN (8.1 tons)
Exhaust velocity (in vacuum): 3,001 m/s
Specific impulse (in vacuum): 306.02 s
Gross mass: 9,921 kg
Dry mass of the stage: 1,070 kg
Payload fairing mass: 145 kg
Total propellant mass: 7,664 kg
Engine type: 1 х liquid propellant rocket engine with uncooled nozzle

THIRD STAGE Characteristics:
Propellant components: Hydrogen Peroxide and Kerosene
Thrust (in vacuum): 3,500 N
Exhaust velocity (in vacuum): 3,004 m/s
Gross mass: 1,067 kg
Dry mass of the stage: 220 kg
Total propellant mass: 527 kg
Payload mass: 320 kg (to Polar Orbit of 600 km altitude)
Engine type: 2 x liquid propellant rocket engines with uncooled nozzle
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Tywin

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #543 on: 06/18/2019 03:40 pm »
Good news, for all this new small launchers companies...

Quote
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., June 18, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NSR’s Smallsat Launch Vehicle Markets, 2nd Edition report, released today, concludes the dedicated commercial small satellite launch market will see a rapid ramp-up period resulting in over $2.2B in revenue over the next 10 years, overcoming supply chain constraints, new technology risks, and solidifying its place in the market as a proven competitor.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nsr-report-smallsat-dedicated-launch-150348404.html
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Offline playadelmars

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #544 on: 06/19/2019 02:42 am »
Unless I’m missing something that doesn’t look good at all! Just over $200M per year launch revenue for 10 years to reach that number? If it is aggregate, that is super small and not even close to venture backable. If it is $2B/year every single year, that’s better, but still not huge for cubesats.

I wonder what split of initial deployment vs resupply they included, or Govt expectations.

Offline high road

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #545 on: 06/19/2019 07:05 am »
Unless I’m missing something that doesn’t look good at all! Just over $200M per year launch revenue for 10 years to reach that number? If it is aggregate, that is super small and not even close to venture backable. If it is $2B/year every single year, that’s better, but still not huge for cubesats.

I wonder what split of initial deployment vs resupply they included, or Govt expectations.

The commercial launch market as a whole is only 6.2 billion... That's after it rose spectacularly last year. The year before, it dropped significantly, and will drop even more spectacularly this year if launches continue as they did in the first six months of the year. With development windows being as they are, if a 2 billion market in ten years for a more affordable (per launch) vehicle is not enough for investors, the people investing in RocketLab and the dozens of other smallsat launchers under development must be out of their minds indeed.

Of course, most of those will likely fail as the major players increasingly dominate the market for their segment, leaving only goverment funded oldspace companies to limp from occasional launch to occasional launch, but that is quite normal for venture backed startups.

edit: the article does indeed predict a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the early 2020's. That's how it works with market disrupting technology. The same thing is bound to happen with the new megaconstellations (mentioned in the article as an important customer for smallsat launchers, so on topic).
« Last Edit: 06/19/2019 07:22 am by high road »

Offline high road

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #546 on: 07/10/2019 06:28 am »
Av Week has an article Little Launchers Lining Up (paywall).  Some highlights are:
Quote
Now, lured by the prospect of thousands of small satellites needing rides to orbit, companies over the last four years have worked on more than 100 little launchers, with about 40 currently in development or testing.

They have a table of 39 launchers in development worldwide, each with organization, name of rocket, country, and estimated launch date.  44 more are mentioned without dates.  There is also a big table of where the funding is coming from.  Much of this data comes from a watch list kept by Carlos Niederstrasser of Northrop Grumman, so at least some of the big companies are paying attention.

Foremost are are the ones that are working already:  Pegasus, Minotaur, Rocket Lab, plus they say 3 Chinese vehicles are operational.   Of the "upcoming soon" the ones they treat most seriously seem to be Virgin, Vector, Relativity, and Firefly.

Everyone sees a shakeout coming, and a huge first-mover advantage.   The CEO of Firefly says "I’m really glad Rocket Lab has a 150-kg launcher because if they were launching a 1-metric-ton now at the [flight] rate they’re talking about, it would be very difficult to justify these companies.".

The same Carlos Niederstrasser gave a paper at the 32nd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites which has this list, albeit the one below is sorted by launch date.  Beyond the six demonstrated system, several are past their "Latest Launch Date" only a few, like Launcher One, showing likelihood of making their dates.
   Organization      Vehicle Name      Country      Latest Launch Date         
   Launched                           
   Northrop Grumman      Pegasus XL      USA      5-Apr-1990   
   Northrop Grumman      Minotaur I      USA      27-Jan-2000   
   CAST      Chang Zheng 11      China      25-Sep-2015   
   ExPace      Kuaizhou-1A      China      9-Jan-2017   
   CAST      Kaituozhe-2      China      3-Mar-2017   
   Rocket Lab      Electron      USA/New Zealand      21-Jan-2018   
   Not yet launched
   Celestia Aerospace      Sagitarius Space Arrow CM      Spain      2016   
   SpaceLS      Prometheus-1      United Kingdom      Q4 2017   
   zero2infinity      Bloostar      Spain      2017   
   Virgin Orbit      LauncherOne      USA      H1 2018   
   LandSpace      LandSpace-1      China      H2 2018   
   Vector Space Systems      Vector-R      USA      H2  2018   
   LEO Launcher      Chariot      USA      Q4  2018   
   bspace      Volant      USA      2018   
   OneSpace Technology      OS-M1      China      2018   
   RocketStar      Star-Lord      USA      2018   
   ISRO      PSLV Light      India      Q1 2019   
   Rocketcrafters      Intrepid-1      USA      Q1 2019   
   Firefly Aerospace      Firefly       USA      Q3 2019   
   Bagaveev Corporation      Bagaveev      USA      2019   
   DCTS      VLM-1      Brazil      2019   
   Space Ops      Rocky 1      Australia      2019   
   Stofiel Aerospace      Boreas-Hermes      USA      2019   
   ABL Space Systems      RS1      USA      Q3 2020   
   Gilmour Space Technologies      Eris      Australia/Singapore      Q4 2020   
   CONAE      Tronador II      Argentina      2020   
   CubeCab      Cab-3A      USA      2020   
   ESA      Space Rider      Europe      2020   
   Linkspace     NewLine-1      China      2020   
   Orbital Access      Orbital 500R      United Kingdom      2020   
   PLD Space      Arion 2      Spain      3Q 2021   
   Aphelion Orbitals      Helios      USA      2021   
   Launcher      Rocket-1      USA      2025   
   Cloud IX      Unknown      USA               
   Interorbital Systems      NEPTUNE N1      USA               
   Orbex      Orbex      United Kingdom               
   Skyrora      Skyrora XL      UK/Ukraine               
   SpinLaunch      Unknown      USA               
   Stratolaunch      Pegasus (Strato)      USA               
   VALT Enterprises      VALT      USA               


CAST = China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation
DCTA = Departamento de Ciencia e Tecnologia Aeroespacial
Linksapce = Linksapce Aerospace Technology Group 

I see the two smallsat launchers due to have their maiden flight this month, are not even mentioned in this list. Any particular reason why that would be?

Offline gongora

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #547 on: 07/10/2019 01:37 pm »
I see the two smallsat launchers due to have their maiden flight this month, are not even mentioned in this list. Any particular reason why that would be?

If you want to help maintain the list, maybe you should actually say what launchers you're talking about.

Offline high road

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #548 on: 07/10/2019 01:55 pm »
I see the two smallsat launchers due to have their maiden flight this month, are not even mentioned in this list. Any particular reason why that would be?

If you want to help maintain the list, maybe you should actually say what launchers you're talking about.

This particular list was quoted from an article. I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to identify reliable sources of info to improve the list in this thread. The two launchers I'm talking about are Hyperbola-1 and Jielong-1 (Smart Dragon). Both Chinese.

So my question was more whether these launchersbecame public knowledge after this article was published, or whether the Chinese can get a launcherfrom paper to first launch that fast, or if there's any other reason to omit them from this list.
« Last Edit: 07/10/2019 01:57 pm by high road »

Offline gongora

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #549 on: 07/10/2019 02:39 pm »
I think in general the Chinese launch startups (there are a bunch of them) haven't been covered as heavily as those in some other parts of the world.

https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1148186919953752064

https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1148186923292385282


Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #550 on: 07/10/2019 11:31 pm »
This particular list was quoted from an article. I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to identify reliable sources of info to improve the list in this thread. The two launchers I'm talking about are Hyperbola-1 and Jielong-1 (Smart Dragon). Both Chinese.

So my question was more whether these launchers became public knowledge after this article was published, or whether the Chinese can get a launcher from paper to first launch that fast, or if there's any other reason to omit them from this list.
The 2019 article (paywalled) did list Hyperbola-1, though the (public) 2018 article from the same researcher did not.  First flight was listed as Q3 2019.   So at least this company (iSpace), and an approximate schedule. seems to be reasonably well known.

The other one mentioned, Jielong-1 (Smart Dragon-1), does not appear to be mentioned in either article.  This is likely because it's a project of a subsidiary of a state contractor, and hence does not need publicity to drum up investment.


Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #551 on: 07/11/2019 01:03 am »
I see the two smallsat launchers due to have their maiden flight this month, are not even mentioned in this list. Any particular reason why that would be?

If you want to help maintain the list, maybe you should actually say what launchers you're talking about.

This particular list was quoted from an article. I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough to identify reliable sources of info to improve the list in this thread. The two launchers I'm talking about are Hyperbola-1 and Jielong-1 (Smart Dragon). Both Chinese.

So my question was more whether these launchersbecame public knowledge after this article was published, or whether the Chinese can get a launcherfrom paper to first launch that fast, or if there's any other reason to omit them from this list.

Well as someone who follows those things, the Chinese market is a complete mess and news before launch are very scarce - much worse than similar start-ups in the West - and I'm not surprised that they aren't listed here.

I think the Chinese small rockets market operates in a much different (and even more untried) model than the US one anyway...
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Offline Danderman

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #552 on: 07/13/2019 01:55 am »
Since Nanoracks can launch small sats with some reliability at a given price, a customer would have to be incentivized by new launch companies by a significantly better price to switch from Nanoracks - or really need different orbital parameters.

What is really happening is that a lot of proposed satellites are illusory, as are the launchers proposed to meet that illusory demand.

We went through this in the late 1990s, with huge projected demand for launches, and a large number of new proposed launchers. When the stock market tumbled in 2000, everything disappeared.
« Last Edit: 07/13/2019 01:57 am by Danderman »

Offline gongora

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #553 on: 07/13/2019 02:35 am »
Since Nanoracks can launch small sats with some reliability at a given price, a customer would have to be incentivized by new launch companies by a significantly better price to switch from Nanoracks - or really need different orbital parameters.

A lot of companies don't want to launch from ISS once they're past the initial development stage on their satellites.  It's a low altitude and not the greatest inclination for many uses.  Having Cygnus do deployments after leaving ISS helps with the altitude issue, but the number of slots on the commercial crew vehicles is limited.  Hundreds of small sats have launched on PSLV and Soyuz.

Offline high road

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #554 on: 07/26/2019 01:50 pm »
Av Week has an article Little Launchers Lining Up (paywall).  Some highlights are:
Quote
Now, lured by the prospect of thousands of small satellites needing rides to orbit, companies over the last four years have worked on more than 100 little launchers, with about 40 currently in development or testing.

They have a table of 39 launchers in development worldwide, each with organization, name of rocket, country, and estimated launch date.  44 more are mentioned without dates.  There is also a big table of where the funding is coming from.  Much of this data comes from a watch list kept by Carlos Niederstrasser of Northrop Grumman, so at least some of the big companies are paying attention.

Foremost are are the ones that are working already:  Pegasus, Minotaur, Rocket Lab, plus they say 3 Chinese vehicles are operational.   Of the "upcoming soon" the ones they treat most seriously seem to be Virgin, Vector, Relativity, and Firefly.

Everyone sees a shakeout coming, and a huge first-mover advantage.   The CEO of Firefly says "I’m really glad Rocket Lab has a 150-kg launcher because if they were launching a 1-metric-ton now at the [flight] rate they’re talking about, it would be very difficult to justify these companies.".

The same Carlos Niederstrasser gave a paper at the 32nd Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites which has this list, albeit the one below is sorted by launch date.  Beyond the six demonstrated system, several are past their "Latest Launch Date" only a few, like Launcher One, showing likelihood of making their dates.
   Organization      Vehicle Name      Country      Latest Launch Date         
   Launched                           
   Northrop Grumman      Pegasus XL      USA      5-Apr-1990   
   Northrop Grumman      Minotaur I      USA      27-Jan-2000   
   CAST      Chang Zheng 11      China      25-Sep-2015   
   ExPace      Kuaizhou-1A      China      9-Jan-2017   
   CAST      Kaituozhe-2      China      3-Mar-2017   
   Rocket Lab      Electron      USA/New Zealand      21-Jan-2018   
   Not yet launched
   Celestia Aerospace      Sagitarius Space Arrow CM      Spain      2016   
   SpaceLS      Prometheus-1      United Kingdom      Q4 2017   
   zero2infinity      Bloostar      Spain      2017   
   Virgin Orbit      LauncherOne      USA      H1 2018   
   LandSpace      LandSpace-1      China      H2 2018   
   Vector Space Systems      Vector-R      USA      H2  2018   
   LEO Launcher      Chariot      USA      Q4  2018   
   bspace      Volant      USA      2018   
   OneSpace Technology      OS-M1      China      2018   
   RocketStar      Star-Lord      USA      2018   
   ISRO      PSLV Light      India      Q1 2019   
   Rocketcrafters      Intrepid-1      USA      Q1 2019   
   Firefly Aerospace      Firefly       USA      Q3 2019   
   Bagaveev Corporation      Bagaveev      USA      2019   
   DCTS      VLM-1      Brazil      2019   
   Space Ops      Rocky 1      Australia      2019   
   Stofiel Aerospace      Boreas-Hermes      USA      2019   
   ABL Space Systems      RS1      USA      Q3 2020   
   Gilmour Space Technologies      Eris      Australia/Singapore      Q4 2020   
   CONAE      Tronador II      Argentina      2020   
   CubeCab      Cab-3A      USA      2020   
   ESA      Space Rider      Europe      2020   
   Linkspace     NewLine-1      China      2020   
   Orbital Access      Orbital 500R      United Kingdom      2020   
   PLD Space      Arion 2      Spain      3Q 2021   
   Aphelion Orbitals      Helios      USA      2021   
   Launcher      Rocket-1      USA      2025   
   Cloud IX      Unknown      USA               
   Interorbital Systems      NEPTUNE N1      USA               
   Orbex      Orbex      United Kingdom               
   Skyrora      Skyrora XL      UK/Ukraine               
   SpinLaunch      Unknown      USA               
   Stratolaunch      Pegasus (Strato)      USA               
   VALT Enterprises      VALT      USA               


CAST = China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation
DCTA = Departamento de Ciencia e Tecnologia Aeroespacial
Linksapce = Linksapce Aerospace Technology Group 

We can add Hyperbola 1 to the list of active as a small sat launchers. 'Active' is relative: still under 1 launch per year per launcher on average this year. Although that rate is likely to hit 1 next month, 4 months earlier than last year. Let's hope there's a trend there.

Offline playadelmars

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #555 on: 07/26/2019 04:13 pm »
Relativity Space - Terran 1 as well. Launch at end of 2020, and latest articles peg their team at almost 100 people. Also have a launch site at the Cape, and huge development facilities at NASA Stennis Space Center.

Offline meberbs

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #556 on: 07/26/2019 09:56 pm »
Relativity Space - Terran 1 as well. Launch at end of 2020, and latest articles peg their team at almost 100 people. Also have a launch site at the Cape, and huge development facilities at NASA Stennis Space Center.
Relativity doesn't show up in the report because the report uses 1000 kg to LEO as the cutoff for defining "small." Terran 1 has an advertised capability of 1250 kg.

Offline gongora

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #557 on: 07/31/2019 04:29 pm »
[Reuters] After historic rocket launch, Chinese startup to ramp up missions
Quote
Beijing-based startup iSpace is planning up to eight commercial rocket launches next year, after last week becoming China’s first privately funded firm to put a satellite into orbit, its executives told Reuters.
...
The price tag to launch a rocket is 4.5 million euros ($5 million), Yao added.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #558 on: 08/12/2019 07:25 am »
ARCA tested their LAS 25D motor on 21 April 2019. Basically its a water bottle rocket, but with slightly better Isp since they are using heater elements inside the tank to heat the water!

Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #559 on: 08/12/2019 07:31 am »
Their plans for the future. The single stage HAAS 2CA is replaced with a two stage vehicle with LAS 50 first stage. Their HAAS heavy vehicle with 60 t to LEO has 69 MN of thrust!

Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

 

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