Countdown to new smallsat launchers

[savuporo]

Has this table been updated since this post over a year ago?

No it has not I've got a spreadsheet and a script to spit the forum table code out somewhere, but i've been too lazy to go back and update all latest references. I'd move it to a public wiki, but then keeping links back to NSF subject threads would be tricky.

[Salo]

http://rocketcrafters.space/products-services/intrepid-launcher-family/

Beginning with Intrepid-1, with first launch planned for Q1 2019, Rocket Crafters plans to develop XL and XL+ variants to support an even broader spectrum of customer payload and space destinations.

[WizZifnab]

I would love to see this list updated.  Along with a note on most recent demonstrated development for each.

[Dao Angkan]

I would love to see this list updated.  Along with a note on most recent demonstrated development for each.

That would be a lot of work! (I'd like to see that too).

[Zond]

These guys have a linkedin page but no public name:
Stealth Space Company

We are a small, highly entrepreneurial team of rocket engineers with deep technical expertise who love to build things and relish the idea of a grand challenge. We believe that space is the ultimate high ground, and we are on a mission to provide routine access to earth orbit for the entrepreneurs and enterprises that are launching a new generation of services powered by small satellites that will connect, observe, and influence our planet. Building on over a decade of technology development in rocket propulsion, structures, and avionics funded by NASA and DARPA, we are applying a fast-paced, hardware-focused, agile approach to space launch.

Based on the location of their headquarters and the description, maybe a spinoff/evolution of Ventions?

[ringsider]

These guys have a linkedin page but no public name:
Stealth Space Company

We are a small, highly entrepreneurial team of rocket engineers with deep technical expertise who love to build things and relish the idea of a grand challenge. We believe that space is the ultimate high ground, and we are on a mission to provide routine access to earth orbit for the entrepreneurs and enterprises that are launching a new generation of services powered by small satellites that will connect, observe, and influence our planet. Building on over a decade of technology development in rocket propulsion, structures, and avionics funded by NASA and DARPA, we are applying a fast-paced, hardware-focused, agile approach to space launch.

Based on the location of their headquarters and the description, maybe a spinoff/evolution of Ventions?

Another rocket company - 40 employees and several have titles like Propulsion Engineer, Head of Launch Infrastruture etc. Chris C Kemp is in charge.

"We are a small, highly entrepreneurial team of rocket engineers with deep technical expertise who love to build things and relish the idea of a grand challenge. We believe that space is the ultimate high ground, and we are on a mission to provide routine access to earth orbit for the entrepreneurs and enterprises that are launching a new generation of services powered by small satellites that will connect, observe, and influence our planet. Building on over a decade of technology development in rocket propulsion, structures, and avionics funded by NASA and DARPA, we are applying a fast-paced, hardware-focused, agile approach to space launch. Are you an engineer, hacker, maker, or physicist who has always dreamed of building rockets? Come help us build the hardware and launch the services that will open the frontier of space to the next generation of entrepreneurs."

[topsphere]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Wow. That is lower than I would have said but still I was only going to say 3-4 )

Who would you pick in that 3 - 4?

[ringsider]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Wow. That is lower than I would have said but still I was only going to say 3-4 )

Who would you pick in that 3 - 4?

Just looking at the USA:

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Very long shots:
Aphelion
ABL
Interorbital
Go Launcher
Vacuous Space Systems
EXOS
New Ascent
Odyne
Rocketcrafters
Scorpius
Stofiel Aerospace
Ventions
UP Orbital
Whittinghill
Launcherspace
Cloudix

DOA:
ARCA
CubeCab
Mishaal
Bagaveev
RocketStar
Spinlaunch
VALT
XCOR
bspace

[TrevorMonty]

You forgot Vector, long shot?.

Firefly better than long shot if they have solid financial backing.

[ringsider]

You forgot Vector, long shot?.

You mean Vacuous Space Systems? I put them as very long shot because they haven't done anything that looks like an orbital quality vehicle to date, and I am not convinced by the Vacuous business model.

Firefly better than long shot if they have solid financial backing.

Firefly's issues are the time (and money) it will take to reboot and build against a much larger 1000kg payload requirement on a heavily revised plan - and honestly the fact that Tom Markusic is still running it is a bad sign for me. 1000kgs is almost the same size as Vega.... That is not trivial, and by the time they get there, several others will be in operation for at least 2-3 years and mopping up market share.

[jongoff]

These guys have a linkedin page but no public name:
Stealth Space Company

We are a small, highly entrepreneurial team of rocket engineers with deep technical expertise who love to build things and relish the idea of a grand challenge. We believe that space is the ultimate high ground, and we are on a mission to provide routine access to earth orbit for the entrepreneurs and enterprises that are launching a new generation of services powered by small satellites that will connect, observe, and influence our planet. Building on over a decade of technology development in rocket propulsion, structures, and avionics funded by NASA and DARPA, we are applying a fast-paced, hardware-focused, agile approach to space launch.

Based on the location of their headquarters and the description, maybe a spinoff/evolution of Ventions?

Another rocket company - 40 employees and several have titles like Propulsion Engineer, Head of Launch Infrastruture etc. Chris C Kemp is in charge.

Yeah, whoever they are, they're definitely not Ventions--none of the people I know currently work at Ventions are on that list (there are a lot of ex-Masten/ex-Altius employees at Ventions).

~Jon

[jongoff]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Wow. That is lower than I would have said but still I was only going to say 3-4 )

Who would you pick in that 3 - 4?

Just looking at the USA:

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Very long shots:
Aphelion
ABL
Interorbital
Go Launcher
Vacuous Space Systems
EXOS
New Ascent
Odyne
Rocketcrafters
Scorpius
Stofiel Aerospace
Ventions
UP Orbital
Whittinghill
Launcherspace
Cloudix

DOA:
ARCA
CubeCab
Mishaal
Bagaveev
RocketStar
Spinlaunch
VALT
XCOR
bspace

If I were doing the list, I'd probably move a few around (I'd move Stratolaunch down to longshot, firefly down to very long shot, and move Ventions, Generation Orbit, and maybe Vector up from very longshot to longshot). But I generally agree with these rankings. I wish Masten was on this list, but at least right now even if they were, they'd be in the very longshot category.

~Jon

[ringsider]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Wow. That is lower than I would have said but still I was only going to say 3-4 )

Who would you pick in that 3 - 4?

Just looking at the USA:

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Very long shots:
Aphelion
ABL
Interorbital
Go Launcher
Vacuous Space Systems
EXOS
New Ascent
Odyne
Rocketcrafters
Scorpius
Stofiel Aerospace
Ventions
UP Orbital
Whittinghill
Launcherspace
Cloudix

DOA:
ARCA
CubeCab
Mishaal
Bagaveev
RocketStar
Spinlaunch
VALT
XCOR
bspace

If I were doing the list, I'd probably move a few around (I'd move Stratolaunch down to longshot, firefly down to very long shot, and move Ventions, Generation Orbit, and maybe Vector up from very longshot to longshot). But I generally agree with these rankings. I wish Masten was on this list, but at least right now even if they were, they'd be in the very longshot category.

~Jon

I forgot Masten, and Stealth. But they would both be in VLS or LS for sure. I think those 2 categories are open to opinion week by week, but basically if you have a shit ton of cash I believe you can do it, hence why Firefly is in the higher possibility, and that plus the CIA rumors are the only reason I think Stratolauncher is up there. Vacuous would be in there if they had credible tech as well as that recent VC money, but I don't believe anything they say on tech, their PR is polluting their brand, and the VC money might dry up if they keep reaching for the clouds.

Broadly that is WAY too many hopeful suppliers chasing a mostly locked up market. 90% of those guys will fail or become zombie companies living from grant to grant.

[imprezive]

Just looking at the USA:

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Very long shots:
Aphelion
ABL
Interorbital
Go Launcher
Vacuous Space Systems
EXOS
New Ascent
Odyne
Rocketcrafters
Scorpius
Stofiel Aerospace
Ventions
UP Orbital
Whittinghill
Launcherspace
Cloudix

DOA:
ARCA
CubeCab
Mishaal
Bagaveev
RocketStar
Spinlaunch
VALT
XCOR
bspace

At its core these small launch companies all rely on launching a lot of rockets a year. Getting a functional orbital rocket is only a piece of solving the puzzle and honestly I’m not even sure it’s the hardest piece. Figuring out to build and launch that many rockets is far from trivial. Even if most of these companies get a design to close and launch they are years and huge investment away from building a factory and becoming a viable business. At this point the only companies I’ve seen show actual manufacturing facilities and have a solution to launch cadence bottlenecks are Rocket Lab and Virgin.

[gongora]

If I were doing the list, I'd probably move a few around (I'd move Stratolaunch down to longshot, firefly down to very long shot, and move Ventions, Generation Orbit, and maybe Vector up from very longshot to longshot). But I generally agree with these rankings. I wish Masten was on this list, but at least right now even if they were, they'd be in the very longshot category.

~Jon

Generation Orbit doesn't seem focused on orbital launch right now, although they could still do it later.

[Davidthefat]

If I were doing the list, I'd probably move a few around (I'd move Stratolaunch down to longshot, firefly down to very long shot, and move Ventions, Generation Orbit, and maybe Vector up from very longshot to longshot). But I generally agree with these rankings. I wish Masten was on this list, but at least right now even if they were, they'd be in the very longshot category.

~Jon

Generation Orbit doesn't seem focused on orbital launch right now, although they could still do it later.

I had thought that Generation Orbit was intending on buying engines from Ursa Major Technologies for their vehicle. Are they focusing on suborbital now?

[gongora]

Generation Orbit Launch Services, Inc. (GO) is pleased to announce the award of a Follow-On Phase II SBIR (Small Business Innovative Research) contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory, Aerospace Systems Directorate, High Speed Systems Division (AFRL/RQH) for development and flight testing of the GOLauncher 1 (GO1). The single stage liquid rocket, launched from a Gulfstream III business jet, will conduct its inaugural flight test in 2019, reaching Mach 6 within the atmosphere. The flight will mark the initial operational capability of the world’s first commercially-available hypersonic test bed, empowering hypersonic researchers with affordable and flexible access to hypersonic flight environments.

They got some government money for hypersonic research (which could still be on the road to commercial launch.)

[topsphere]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Wow. That is lower than I would have said but still I was only going to say 3-4 )

Who would you pick in that 3 - 4?

Just looking at the USA:

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Very long shots:
Aphelion
ABL
Interorbital
Go Launcher
Vacuous Space Systems
EXOS
New Ascent
Odyne
Rocketcrafters
Scorpius
Stofiel Aerospace
Ventions
UP Orbital
Whittinghill
Launcherspace
Cloudix

DOA:
ARCA
CubeCab
Mishaal
Bagaveev
RocketStar
Spinlaunch
VALT
XCOR
bspace

Interesting... And if we open this to include all global small launchers? How would this change your list?

I would personally add PLD to Long Shot, and InterStellar Technologies, zero2infinity, Orbex and maybe Gilmour to Very Long Shot.

[Kosmos2001]

Wow!  Those companies are growing like mushrooms in autumn after a rainy summer.

[TrevorMonty]

Wow!  Those companies are growing like mushrooms in autumn after a rainy summer.

And most will fade away just as quickly.