Countdown to new smallsat launchers

[ringsider]

In other news, for those touting rideshare as solution to all smallsat launch needs

http://spacenews.com/minotaur-4s-canceled-commercial-cubesat-rideshares-could-spark-policy-changes/

“I believe we’ve lost five launches in two years,” Barna said of the company’s overall efforts to launch its cubesat constellation. “We’ve been bumped to other launches just as many times because of failures or delays, or just because the primary customer asked. If you haven’t consciously built an entire infrastructure around the flexibility to move launches, absorb delays and cancellations, and even adapt to geopolitical and regulatory challenges, then you just aren’t prepared to launch a satellite constellation.”

It says there that there have been no rideshare launches ever from the USA, is that true? If so it is amazing.

"Outside of [International Space Station] resupply missions, there has never been a launch in the U.S. that accommodated commercial cubesats as rideshare,” Barna said. “ORS-5 would have been the first.”

[gongora]

SpaceX hasn't been carrying cubesats outside of CRS missions, and almost all other launches from the U.S. are government launches.  Those typically carry government sponsored secondary payloads.  The point they made about not being able to get to lower inclinations is going to be important for several of the smallsat constellations that want to deploy in the next few years.  There are other companies planning to deploy a bunch of sats into non-polar orbits and they'd really like RocketLab or Virgin or whoever available to carry their payloads.

[CameronD]

In the news today (actually, all over the news today):

Australian space agency to employ thousands and tap $420b industry, Government says

Australia will create its own space agency in an attempt to cash in on a $420 billion aeronautical industry and create thousands of new jobs.

The Federal Government will detail the long-term plans at the 68th International Astronautical Congress in Adelaide, where the Opposition will also reveal its own plan.

Several decades late but better late than never, I suppose..

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/government-to-establish-national-space-agency/8980268


(Not sure where else to put this.. if there's somewhere better, mods please move)
 

[savuporo]

Probably deserves it's own thread in General section.

[CameronD]

Probably deserves it's own thread in General section.

Good point.  I'll do that..

[ringsider]

I came across this Sunnyvale, USA company, Spinlaunch Inc.

They seem to have raised about $5M so far, but I don't find any information about technology:-

https://www.whoisraisingmoney.com/spinlaunch-inc

From the name I can only imagine they rotate something to high speed before releasing it.

[Kryten]

 I had a look at their website (http://spinlaunch.com/) and it's nothing but a login screen. However, looking at the page source, the login screen is fake. They didn't even make it, it's a wordpress plugin;https://wordpress.org/plugins/fake-login-area/

[ringsider]

I had a look at their website (http://spinlaunch.com/) and it's nothing but a login screen. However, looking at the page source, the login screen is fake. They didn't even make it, it's a wordpress plugin;https://wordpress.org/plugins/fake-login-area/

Hmm. And yet they raised quite a decent amount of cash for a startup and kept it very quiet, including a recent raise. Intriguing.

[Rabidpanda]

Looks like a new startup founded by two SpaceX alumni:

Abl Space Systems
https://www.ablspacesystems.com/

650kg to LEO, 420kg to SSO on their RS-1 launch vehicle. 1st launch in 2021.

[ringsider]

Looks like a new startup founded by two SpaceX alumni:

Abl Space Systems
https://www.ablspacesystems.com/

650kg to LEO, 420kg to SSO on their RS-1 launch vehicle. 1st launch in 2021.

Jeez. I would not want to be a small launcher firm in the USA. What is that, the 20th?

[savuporo]

I would. IMO this is very exciting, the more the better. We have a second wave of companies basically being founded, with learnings from all the failings of the first ones, it will only improve how these businesses are set up in terms of team structure, suppliers, revenue models etc. I'm also liking the chances of one of them actually delivering a viable product/service, because its far from a done deal.

[ringsider]

I would. IMO this is very exciting, the more the better. We have a second wave of companies basically being founded, with learnings from all the failings of the first ones, it will only improve how these businesses are set up in terms of team structure, suppliers, revenue models etc. I'm also liking the chances of one of them actually delivering a viable product/service, because its far from a done deal.

Do you think there is room for all of them? What do we have in the USA - Spacex, ULA, both with smallsat offers; Spaceflight hoovering up the small payloads into dedicated Falcon 9 launches; Virgin Orbit, who have OneWeb sewn up; Rocket Lab, who are the closest of any of them to operations, locking up lots of the small piecemeal sats; then 3-4 more with some money but low credibility.

Almost every one of them relies on some big numbers or the big constellations flying (the loudmouthed but least credible one says they will pick up 35% of the global market), so somebody is going to be SOOL and several will be forced to fold. It will be a race to sell the shares before they go bust if you ask me.

[savuporo]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Spacex, ULA, both with smallsat offers; Spaceflight hoovering up the small payloads into deidcated Falcon 9 launches; Virgin Orbit, who have OneWeb sewn up; Rocket Lab, who are the closest of any of them to operations, lokcing up lots of the small piecemeal sats

All hypothetical. These dedicated F9 launches are becoming a bit of a joke by now.

We had NASA signing 'venture class contracts' about 2 years ago now with 3 companies. Not ONE has gotten their act together and one bit the dust. It's not about the technology working or not working either, there are a myriad of other reasons why most startups just don't work out

[ringsider]

Do you think there is room for all of them?

No of course not. Out of the 20 or more out there, only 1-2 maybe will work.

Wow. That is lower than I would have said but still I was only going to say 3-4 )

For all their faults the loudest one (I won't say who as they have been issuing takedown notices recently to censor publically available information) will probably IPO and make a ton of money then leave it in the hands of the poor shareholders.

[TrevorMonty]

At stage it is looking like RL and Virgin are only serious contenders in this race. Both are well fund and have launch facilities sorted, airplane in Virgin's case.

Boeing's XS1 is in different class but launch price should be competitive with Virgin.

[Comga]

At stage it is looking like RL and Virgin are only serious contenders in this race. Both are well fund and have launch facilities sorted, airplane in Virgin's case.

Boeing's XS1 is in different class but launch price should be competitive with Virgin.

That's an interesting trio, launching from ground, airborne, and hypersonic, respectively.

It is also a progression from nearly assured launch success to probable launch success to a long wait to see if they ever really get to try.

Surely there's a better candidate for third place among the dozen or more outfits discussed in this thread. YMMV

[john smith 19]

I would. IMO this is very exciting, the more the better. We have a second wave of companies basically being founded, with learnings from all the failings of the first ones, it will only improve how these businesses are set up in terms of team structure, suppliers, revenue models etc. I'm also liking the chances of one of them actually delivering a viable product/service, because its far from a done deal.

Probably more like the 3rd or 4th.

The aerospace business seems to have a remarkably short  memory for failure. 

[TrevorMonty]

At stage it is looking like RL and Virgin are only serious contenders in this race. Both are well fund and have launch facilities sorted, airplane in Virgin's case.

Boeing's XS1 is in different class but launch price should be competitive with Virgin.

That's an interesting trio, launching from ground, airborne, and hypersonic, respectively.

It is also a progression from nearly assured launch success to probable launch success to a long wait to see if they ever really get to try.

Surely there's a better candidate for third place among the dozen or more outfits discussed in this thread. YMMV

XS1 is funded, funding of other smallsat LVs is vague in lot of cases. Vector has good PR program but I don't know if they have money to complete a LV and setup production facitilities.

[Space Ghost 1962]

There are at least ten more incoming. XS-1 does not belong in this group, totally different economics/point.

All of them have "issues". Many of them have too much funding (yes, quite possible). Some are "going slow".

About half of them won't make it to any launch pad. Expect 3-4 to actually make it to orbit in 4 years.

Only 2-3 will actually have payloads that matter as an ongoing business. Those that survive will do so on the basis of lowest fixed costs, as the market segments addressed do not yet have a stable stream of payloads at acceptable price/cost.

[Comga]

Meanwhile, a midterm evaluation

Organization	Vehicle	Country	Year/Quarter	Main propulsion	Price	Ref	Thread
Rocket Lab	Electron	NZ/USA	2016 Q3	2-stage kerolox	$4.9M	ref	thread
Firefly Space Systems	Firefly	USA	2017 Q2	2-stage, methalox	$8-9M	ref	thread
Virgin Galactic	LauncherOne	USA	2017 Q3	airlaunch, 2-stage kerolox	<$10M	ref	thread
Horizon SAS	Black Arrow 2	UK	2017 Q2	2-stage, methalox	$7.5M	ref	thread
CubeCab	CubeCab	USA	2017 Q3	airlaunch, no detail	$0.25M	ref
Generation Orbit	GO Launcher 2	USA	2017 Q4	airlaunch	$2.5M	ref

(snip)

Has this table been updated since this post over a year ago?
Since then, RocketLab has launched once, and is well positioned for a second launch this month which only needs to get a bit farther than the first to be successful.
The rest of those above are now behind the posted dates. 
Has any outfit displayed an orbital flight attempt vehicle?
Some not included above have folded, others should be added. 
Perhaps the "year/quarter" for the last few should be "unstated".  Almost every one of these is "unclear", regardless of when they say they will launch.