Countdown to new smallsat launchers

[Galactic Penguin SST]

SFSLV,  2023-

What is SFSLV?

The South Korean military developed small launch vehicle that flew last December.

[Steven Pietrobon]

The South Korean military developed small launch vehicle that flew last December.

Thanks! Presumably it stands for Solid Fuelled Space Launch Vehicle. The one I use is GYUB, the acronym for Goche Yeollyo Uju Balsache, the transliteration of 고체연료 우주발사체 (Solid Fuel Space Launcher).

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/gyub.htm

[Danderman]

This is beginning to feel like the end of the 1990s cycle of new space launch companies. After about 10 years of hype and hopes, the 2000 dotcom crash ended 100% of the new space launch companies.

The industry is more secure now, Rocket Labs would probably survive an economic downturn, and we can hope that more companies launch enough to demonstrate reliability. But the parallels to 1999 are worrying.

Interestingly, between the 2000 crash and the 2008 crash, there was only one new launch company of significance - SpaceX.

[DanClemmensen]

This is beginning to feel like the end of the 1990s cycle of new space launch companies. After about 10 years of hype and hopes, the 2000 dotcom crash ended 100% of the new space launch companies.

The industry is more secure now, Rocket Labs would probably survive an economic downturn, and we can hope that more companies launch enough to demonstrate reliability. But the parallels to 1999 are worrying.

Interestingly, between the 2000 crash and the 2008 crash, there was only one new launch company of significance - SpaceX.

Blue Origin was founded in September 2000. The dot comm bubble peaked in March 2000, so I think BO is post-crash by your definition. I agree that it's not yet an orbital launch company, but it's still around. It also started with suborbital instead of small orbital LV.

[greybeardengineer]

How can there be a market crash when there is as strong launch demand as ever and the opportunities to be one of the main alternatives to SpaceX is still wide open?

There are certainly market segment and business model assumptions that have driven launch start ups in the last decade or two that are rapidly losing credibility (dedicated small sat launch demand large enough to support multiple suppliers, long term viability of fully expended launchers etc.) but that is quite different. When competitors pursuing unviable paths fail that is a shakeout, not a market crash.

[DanClemmensen]

How can there be a market crash when there is as strong launch demand as ever and the opportunities to be one of the main alternatives to SpaceX is still wide open?

The scenario is a general market crash like the one in 2000, not a specific crash in LVs. This general crash or slow-down is theorized to affect the VC market as a whole and would could affect all of those new satellite companies, destroying launch demand. New LV companies would be affected lack of new VC investment and by loss of customers. I have no opinion on the likelihood of this scenario.

[TrevorMonty]

How can there be a market crash when there is as strong launch demand as ever and the opportunities to be one of the main alternatives to SpaceX is still wide open?

The scenario is a general market crash like the one in 2000, not a specific crash in LVs. This general crash or slow-down is theorized to affect the VC market as a whole and would could affect all of those new satellite companies, destroying launch demand. New LV companies would be affected lack of new VC investment and by loss of customers. I have no opinion on the likelihood of this scenario.

Demise of new space launch companies is more to do with poor execution and high cash burn than lack of customers.

While a successful maiden flight for new LV is very important mile stone it still takes a few more years to build flightrate enough to break even. Just look at Electron, LauncherOne, F9, Alpha.

 

[DanClemmensen]

How can there be a market crash when there is as strong launch demand as ever and the opportunities to be one of the main alternatives to SpaceX is still wide open?

The scenario is a general market crash like the one in 2000, not a specific crash in LVs. This general crash or slow-down is theorized to affect the VC market as a whole and would could affect all of those new satellite companies, destroying launch demand. New LV companies would be affected lack of new VC investment and by loss of customers. I have no opinion on the likelihood of this scenario.

Demise of new space launch companies is more to do with poor execution and high cash burn than lack of customers.

While a successful maiden flight for new LV is very important mile stone it still takes a few more years to build flightrate enough to break even. Just look at Electron, LauncherOne, F9, Alpha.

Certainly. The problem is that a downturn causes capital to dry up due to loss of investor confidence, and the perception that customers are disappearing is almost as bad as customers actually disappearing. To insulate itself from the fickle investment market, a company needs an investor with deep pockets and some non-economic reason for investing in space.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://spacenews.com/innospace-shares-tumble-in-stock-market-debut/

Innospace shares tumble in stock market debut
Jeff Foust
July 2, 2024

WASHINGTON — South Korean launch vehicle startup Innospace saw its shares fall by more than 20% in its first day of trading as a public company July 2.

Public markets are brutal for launch companies

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1808235092294185248

There just is no demand for the service they are offering.

I would love a dedicated ride to 550+ km SSO for either 90kg or 170kg, but the pricing is really important, and reliability is table stakes.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1808267451060441328

It seems like Electron is so far ahead no one will be able to catch them in reliability and on-demand capability for microlaunch.