Terran R? 2025?
Quote from: playadelmars on 07/29/2022 06:15 pmTerran R? 2025?PM3's list is "new smallsat launchers," Terran R (and Neutron and Firefly Beta) aren't small-lift launch vehicles. In theory one could create a separate list for new commercial medium-or-larger launch vehicles, but it would consist of exactly those three (plus Starship, I suppose, and maybe New Glenn and Vulcan), so no need to maintain a regularly-updated list.
PM3's list is "new smallsat launchers," Terran R (and Neutron and Firefly Beta) aren't small-lift launch vehicles. In theory one could create a separate list for new commercial medium-or-larger launch vehicles, but it would consist of exactly those three (plus Starship, I suppose, and maybe New Glenn and Vulcan), so no need to maintain a regularly-updated list.
Quote from: trimeta on 07/29/2022 09:02 pmPM3's list is "new smallsat launchers," Terran R (and Neutron and Firefly Beta) aren't small-lift launch vehicles. In theory one could create a separate list for new commercial medium-or-larger launch vehicles, but it would consist of exactly those three (plus Starship, I suppose, and maybe New Glenn and Vulcan), so no need to maintain a regularly-updated list.921, Angara A5V, Ariane 6, CZ-9, Gravity-1, H3, Firefly Beta, Jielong-3, Neutron, New Glenn, Pallas-1, SLS, Soyuz-5, Soyuz-6, Starship, Terran R, Tianlong-2, Vulcan, Zhuque 2, ZK-28 Chinese, 7 American, 3 Russian, 1 Japanese, 1 European. With the Chinese being mostly medium size launchers, the other mostly heavy. But this is getting offtopic.
Well, I did specifically say "commercial," which excludes things like SLS, all the Russian vehicles, (maybe) all the Chinese ones (honestly, I've made little effort to determine to what extent any of their "private" companies truly are commercial), and debatably Ariane 6 (although I guess they're vaguely similar to Vulcan in terms of government funding). Although since your list (and this thread itself) makes no such distinction, perhaps I shouldn't have done so in the first place.
Quote from: Fmedici on 07/29/2022 03:02 pmI guess it's time to update the list with ZK-1AZK-1A lifts 1.5 t to 500 km SSO. This probably translates to > 2 t to 200 km LEO, which makes it a medium size launcher.The CAS Space website says 2 t to LEO, but I assume this refers to > 200 km height. E. g. for the ZK-2, their LEO reference height is 400 km.
I guess it's time to update the list with ZK-1A
Most of these solid rocket orbital launchers from China seem to have been based on missile motors, but I'm not sure about ZK-1A (Lijian 1). It is reported to be 2.65 meters diameter. DF-31/41 are skinnier, reportedly.
Pretty amazing how many companies are still developing <500 kg to LEO smallsat launchers. Every commercial company that has reached the pad with one has now pivoted away. There is no market.
What is the minimum payload to orbit also remains highly up for debate. Obviously, highly dependent on pricing too, but it may not be 1,000 kg either. We'll see!
Quote from: Yiosie on 10/03/2021 11:16 pmFor everyone who wants to continue maintaining these lists, here's a recent comprehensive survey of smallsat launchers presented at the 35th Small Satellite Conference in August (contains big lists of companies and their proposed launch vehicles):Small Launchers in a Pandemic World - 2021 Edition of the Annual Industry SurveyAlso attached below for posterity.Quote from the abstract: There is evidence that this could be the year when the small launch market finally becomes saturated.So it began. :popcorn:PS: Look at the Defunct bar.
For everyone who wants to continue maintaining these lists, here's a recent comprehensive survey of smallsat launchers presented at the 35th Small Satellite Conference in August (contains big lists of companies and their proposed launch vehicles):Small Launchers in a Pandemic World - 2021 Edition of the Annual Industry SurveyAlso attached below for posterity.
What’s the smallest commercial LV that will launch in the next year or so?
Quote from: Danderman on 09/08/2022 03:06 amWhat’s the smallest commercial LV that will launch in the next year or so?The smallest announced to launch is Tlon's Aventura I, 25 kg to SSO.https://tlon.space/aventura-i/
I didn’t see an indication that they will launch any time soon.
Quote from: Danderman on 09/09/2022 03:37 amI didn’t see an indication that they will launch any time soon.See https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55333.msg2346245#msg2346245.The next smallest with some (slight) chance to launch within 12 months is Orbex' Prime, 200 kg to LEO.The smallest that will definitely launch within a year is Firefly Alpha, 1000 kg to LEO. It is scheduled to launch on Sunday.
Quote from: PM3 on 09/09/2022 05:44 amThe smallest that will definitely launch within a year is Firefly Alpha, 1000 kg to LEO. It is scheduled to launch on Sunday.That would be Electron
The smallest that will definitely launch within a year is Firefly Alpha, 1000 kg to LEO. It is scheduled to launch on Sunday.
