Soyuz-U retired?

[VDD1991]

I was reading on Wikipedia that the Soyuz-U will be retired in 2015. With the launch of the final Progress-M cargo spaceship, and the fact that the first launch of the Progress-MS spaceship will be carried out by a Soyuz-2, is it possible that the launch of the Progress M-29M is the last flight of the Soyuz-U?

[edkyle99]

I was reading on Wikipedia that the Soyuz-U will be retired in 2015. With the launch of the final Progress-M cargo spaceship, and the fact that the first launch of the Progress-MS spaceship will be carried out by a Soyuz-2, is it possible that the launch of the Progress M-29M is the last flight of the Soyuz-U?

The Russian launch list in this forum shows at least three more Soyuz U launches with the improved Progress spacecraft.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.780
Anything is possible, but traditionally Russia doesn't fully transition to a new launch vehicle/spacecraft combination until that configuration has proved itself reliable.  The most recent flight of a Soyuz 2 (a 2-1a) with a Progress was a failure.

 - Ed Kyle

[Prober]

I was reading on Wikipedia that the Soyuz-U will be retired in 2015. With the launch of the final Progress-M cargo spaceship, and the fact that the first launch of the Progress-MS spaceship will be carried out by a Soyuz-2, is it possible that the launch of the Progress M-29M is the last flight of the Soyuz-U?

The Russian launch list in this forum shows at least three more Soyuz U launches with the improved Progress spacecraft.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.780
Anything is possible, but traditionally Russia doesn't fully transition to a new launch vehicle/spacecraft combination until that configuration has proved itself reliable.  The most recent flight of a Soyuz 2 (a 2-1a) with a Progress was a failure.

 - Ed Kyle

The old system for Russian testing was what 10 launches.  Thinking the moon rocket.  Any idea what the tests in 2015 are?

[Stan Black]

Five ordered Soyuz-U are left:
27М135С/Т15000-142 for Progress M-28M has been produced 29.07.2013
9М136С/Т15000-145 for Progress MС-4 has been produced 31.01.2014
18М136С/Г15000-146 for Progress M-29M has been produced 29.04.2014
34М136С/Г15000-147 for Progress MС-5 has been produced 27.01.2015
39М136С/Р15000-148 for Progress MС-3 has been produced 16.02.2015

Seven ordered Soyuz-FG are left:
17М136С/Г15000-052 for Soyuz TMA-17M has been produced 29.03.2014   
26М136С/Г15000-054 for Soyuz TMA-18M has been produced 29.08.2014
29М136С/Г15000-055 for Soyuz TMA-19M has been produced 30.09.2014
37М136С/Р15000-056 for Soyuz MS has been produced 30.04.2015
43М136С/Р15000-057 for Soyuz in production
8М137С for Soyuz in production
13М137С for Soyuz in production

However this leaves the one Soyuz-U and one Soyuz-FG unfulfilled under the contract.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17286.msg1423100#msg1423100

[russianhalo117]

Five ordered Soyuz-U are left:
27М135С/Т15000-142 for Progress M-28M has been produced 29.07.2013
9М136С/Т15000-145 for Progress MС-4 has been produced 31.01.2014
18М136С/Г15000-146 for Progress M-29M has been produced 29.04.2014
34М136С/Г15000-147 for Progress MС-5 has been produced 27.01.2015
39М136С/Р15000-148 for Progress MС-3 has been produced 16.02.2015

Seven ordered Soyuz-FG are left:
17М136С/Г15000-052 for Soyuz TMA-17M has been produced 29.03.2014   
26М136С/Г15000-054 for Soyuz TMA-18M has been produced 29.08.2014
29М136С/Г15000-055 for Soyuz TMA-19M has been produced 30.09.2014
37М136С/Р15000-056 for Soyuz MS has been produced 30.04.2015
43М136С/Р15000-057 for Soyuz in production
8М137С for Soyuz in production
13М137С for Soyuz in production

However this leaves the one Soyuz-U and one Soyuz-FG unfulfilled under the contract.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17286.msg1423100#msg1423100

yes but they are classed as spare rockets for contingency and contracts procure more parts than needed for these last ones to ensure flyout of the launchers

[Prof68]

During interview with durector of NPO Progress, he said that last 3 Soyuz-U rockets will be launched in 2016 and 2017 years.

[Alter Sachse]

The following 3 for Progress-MS
T15000-145
G15000-147
R15000-148

[zubenelgenubi]

During interview with durector of NPO Progress, he said that last 3 Soyuz-U rockets will be launched in 2016 and 2017 years.

From the most recent launch list in this sub-forum:
Soyuz-U will be used for the launches of Progress MS-03 and -04 later this year.
The last Soyuz-U launch on this list is Progress MS-05 early next year.

If the information from last year is still correct, seen up-thread, then the correlation is:
Progress MS-03/R15000-148
Progress MS-04/T15000-145
Progress MS-05/G15000-147

[Stan Black]

Tender for the transportation of two Soyuz-U to Baikonur, for the launch of Progress-MS:-

Транспортировка двух ракет-носителей «Союз-У» со сборочно-защитными блоками для запуска транспортных грузовых кораблей «Прогресс МС»

http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/epz/order/notice/ea44/view/common-info.html?regNumber=0995000000216000009

[fregate]

After lost of mission of Progress cargo spacecraft in 2015 on Soyuz-2.1A LV, IMHO we should expect at least 3 test missions of Progress MS and at least 3 test mission of manned Soyuz-MS  on Soyuz-2.1A before ROSCOSMOS decide to decommission legacy launchers and launch ISS bound transport spacecrafts on  Soyuz-2.1A. In June Russians would launch a new series of Soyuz MS on Soyuz-FG.
Decomission of Soyuz-U and Soyuz-FG LVs would allow Roscosmos to modify existing launchpads on Baikonour and Plesetks to use Soyuz 2.X launchers (this would make up to 8 Soyuz launch pads in 4 spaceports).     

[russianhalo117]

After lost of mission of Progress cargo spacecraft in 2015 on Soyuz-2.1A LV, IMHO we should expect at least 3 test missions of Progress MS and at least 3 test mission of manned Soyuz-MS  on Soyuz-2.1A before ROSCOSMOS decide to decommission legacy launchers and launch ISS bound transport spacecrafts on  Soyuz-2.1A. In June Russians would launch a new series of Soyuz MS on Soyuz-FG.
Decomission of Soyuz-U and Soyuz-FG LVs would allow Roscosmos to modify existing launchpads on Baikonour and Plesetks to use Soyuz 2.X launchers (this would make up to 8 Soyuz launch pads in 4 spaceports).     

As I understand, Progress earlier this years had already received the final go ahead from the state commissions to initiate the conclusion of the production of Soyuz-U. The commissions approved the consolidation of analog launchers to the Soyuz-FG version and that version is still available in production for Progress-MS and Soyuz-MS missions until it receives the commissions final go ahead to conclude the analog/digital hybrid version Soyuz-FG..

[Nicolas PILLET]

this would make up to 8 Soyuz launch pads in 4 spaceports

Launch pad n°1 in Plesetsk has been completely decommissionned. At best, they would have seven launch pads.

[baldusi]

And the plan is to get away from Baikonour to Voistochny. And Ariane 6 is supposed to replace Souyz at Kourou.

[fregate]

this would make up to 8 Soyuz launch pads in 4 spaceports

Launch pad n°1 in Plesetsk has been completely decommissionned. At best, they would have seven launch pads.

Yes, you are right Launch pad 41/1 in Plesetsk has been disassembled after 1989, after that it was a Zenit-2 launch pad and finally became Angara launch pad.   

[Stan Black]

Five ordered Soyuz-U are left:
27М135С/Т15000-142 for Progress M-28M has been produced 29.07.2013
9М136С/Т15000-145 for Progress MС-04 has been produced 31.01.2014
18М136С/Г15000-146 for Progress M-29M has been produced 29.04.2014
34М136С/Г15000-147 for Progress MС-05 has been produced 27.01.2015
39М136С/Р15000-148 for Progress MС-03 has been produced 16.02.2015

Seven ordered Soyuz-FG are left:
17М136С/Г15000-052 for Soyuz TMA-17M has been produced 29.03.2014   
26М136С/Г15000-054 for Soyuz TMA-18M has been produced 29.08.2014
29М136С/Г15000-055 for Soyuz TMA-19M has been produced 30.09.2014
37М136С/Р15000-056 for Soyuz MS has been produced 30.04.2015
43М136С/Р15000-057 for Soyuz in production
8М137С for Soyuz in production
13М137С for Soyuz in production

However this leaves the one Soyuz-U and one Soyuz-FG unfulfilled under the contract.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17286.msg1423100#msg1423100

yes but they are classed as spare rockets for contingency and contracts procure more parts than needed for these last ones to ensure flyout of the launchers

At 3:40 mark, another Soyuz-U, identified as 40М136С?

[Danderman]

AFAIK, Soyuz-FG and Soyuz-U are identical except for some engine components, so from the manufacturing perspective, no need for a lot of additional Soyuz-U parts to be ordered to maintain the capability to finish the last two.

I always wondered why Progress did not launch on Soyuz-FG, which has an additional 200 kg payload capability, but I guess the modified engines for Soyuz-FG cost more than the 200 kg of cargo is worth.

[Alter Sachse]

According to NK-Forum it could be Sojus 2.1b
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/forum13/topic304/?PAGEN_1=155

291   40М136С                14А14-1Б

[Stan Black]

According to NK-Forum it could be Sojus 2.1b
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/forum13/topic304/?PAGEN_1=155

291   40М136С                14А14-1Б

That came from Anik’s list. It included no serial number or associated fairing.

No tender or contract has referenced that rocket. It was, so far, the only one left from the 136th-series without an identified payload?

The video shows 11С59-ПВБ, which identifies it as part of a Soyuz-U rocket.

[Alter Sachse]

According to NK-Forum it could be Sojus 2.1b
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/forum13/topic304/?PAGEN_1=155

291   40М136С                14А14-1Б

That came from Anik’s list. It included no serial number or associated fairing.

No tender or contract has referenced that rocket. It was, so far, the only one left from the 136th-series without an identified payload?

The video shows 11С59-ПВБ, which identifies it as part of a Soyuz-U rocket.

2017/2018 we know more !?

[russianhalo117]

AFAIK, Soyuz-FG and Soyuz-U are identical except for some engine components, so from the manufacturing perspective, no need for a lot of additional Soyuz-U parts to be ordered to maintain the capability to finish the last two.

I always wondered why Progress did not launch on Soyuz-FG, which has an additional 200 kg payload capability, but I guess the modified engines for Soyuz-FG cost more than the 200 kg of cargo is worth.

Well they did for man rating purposes and it was talked about before Soyuz-2 came into existence.

[Danderman]

AFAIK, Soyuz-FG and Soyuz-U are identical except for some engine components, so from the manufacturing perspective, no need for a lot of additional Soyuz-U parts to be ordered to maintain the capability to finish the last two.

I always wondered why Progress did not launch on Soyuz-FG, which has an additional 200 kg payload capability, but I guess the modified engines for Soyuz-FG cost more than the 200 kg of cargo is worth.

Well they did for man rating purposes and it was talked about before Soyuz-2 came into existence.

Since Soyuz-U was already man-rated, the reason for Soyuz-FG was to coax another 200 kg out of Soyuz to accommodate the mass requirements for the Soyuz spacecraft.  The question as to why Progress does not launch on Soyuz-FG probably has to do with drop zones, or the somewhat higher costs of the Soyuz-FG engines compared with the relatively small gain in performance.