SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - ORBCOMM-2 - Dec. 21, 2015 (Return To Flight) DISCUSSION

[WHAP]

SpaceX will continue as long as customers have confidence. Comments from SES about how SpaceX stepped up and informed SES about the investigation and recovery confirms SpaceX can retain customer confidence.

Customers care about three things: price, price, and price.  Proton's record is nothing to be proud of, and the Russians aren't the most forthcoming with respect to details during a failure investigation, yet the commercial market keeps going back to them because they're a bargain. 

[macpacheco]

Customers care about three things: price, price, and price.  Proton's record is nothing to be proud of, and the Russians aren't the most forthcoming with respect to details during a failure investigation, yet the commercial market keeps going back to them because they're a bargain.

True, but that would certainly make it really hard to get human rating, might loose DoD certification, even the CRS program could be iffy (congress enemies would have a field day if SpaceX were to suffer even a 2nd failure in the next 10 launches).
But I have to say I trust SpaceX. They have shown a monster ability to evolve. They will show their ability to slow down from breakneck innovation to a more slowly but surely innovation pace for a while as they finish licking their wounds.
It has been all hands on deck during this investigation, which I assume include combing through the Merlin/F9R upgrades to the next launch.

[Sesquipedalian]

"What if first SLS launch fails"

Speaking completely seriously here, this is a thread I'd be interested in reading.

[the_other_Doug]

What if the thing happens that we don't dare to talk about...  partial or full failure of the RTF mission because of unexpected issues in the FT changes?

Why discuss something as dark and negative as that, while it has not happened yet, and hopefully never will? Let's cross that bridge when and IF it gets there.

It's not morbid to have some idea of what you will do if the worst happens.  That's why they sell life insurance.
...
When you try something hard, you need to at least think about the possibility of failure.

And are you suggesting that the people at SpaceX aren't spending sleepless nights considering such scenarios?  They know how important it is.

What they do in this regard matters. Not what we pontificate about here. So don't make it seem like worst case scenario is an essential form of discourse here. Because if it is, when are you going to post the "What it first SLS launch fails" or "what if first updated Antares launch fails" threads too?

Exactly.  You can always spiral down the worst-case drain and decide never to even try to accomplish anything, because frequently-visualized worst cases tend to become inevitable disasters in the minds of those doing the visualizing.  You lose a realistic feel for the likelihood of the worst case happening vs. of things going well, and in the worst case ( ) lose your ability to believe the blasted thing could ever have worked at all.

So you don't even try.

Space flight isn't easy, and it will never be a low-risk undertaking.  When you pack that much energy into that sized vehicle, and try and release it all over the course of just a few minutes, there is always a possibility of a Bad Day.  You accept the possibility of Mr. Murphy rolling boxcars and your worst case coming true, or else you would never go fly.  If you dwell on each and every worst case, to the exclusion of all else, you'll never get past that to do anything else.

At least, in my observation.

[hop]

Customers care about three things: price, price, and price.  Proton's record is nothing to be proud of, and the Russians aren't the most forthcoming with respect to details during a failure investigation, yet the commercial market keeps going back to them because they're a bargain. 

IMO, it's a lot more complicated than that. If price were the primary factor, Araine 5 wouldn't have an order book packed with commercial launches, and Sea Launch would still be in business. Real customers care to varying degrees about cost, reliability, and availability. For some, a sufficiently insured launch on a lower reliability vehicle makes sense. For others, it doesn't.

Proton illustrates that the market will tolerate a relatively high failure rate if the other factors are favorable. OTOH, it's able to weather failures better than a purely commercial launch provider like SpaceX or Sea Launch because the Russian government needs to keep it flying no matter what.

[The Roadie]

For anybody interested living near North San Diego county, I'm giving a talk and slide show on SpaceX RTF at my favorite local science-themed brewpub, Wavelength Brewing Co, in Vista, CA tonight at 8PM. There will be a Youtube link later since they record these things.

https://www.facebook.com/events/1503174289995596/

[Sohl]

For anybody interested living near North San Diego county, I'm giving a talk and slide show on SpaceX RTF at my favorite local science-themed brewpub, Wavelength Brewing Co, in Vista, CA tonight at 8PM. There will be a Youtube link later since they record these things.

https://www.facebook.com/events/1503174289995596/

Good luck with the presentation!  I wish I was in the area tonight.

[Chris Bergin]

For anybody interested living near North San Diego county, I'm giving a talk and slide show on SpaceX RTF at my favorite local science-themed brewpub, Wavelength Brewing Co, in Vista, CA tonight at 8PM. There will be a Youtube link later since they record these things.

https://www.facebook.com/events/1503174289995596/

That's very cool. I'd be all over that if I was local.

(Been to San Diego itself and it was a very nice place).

[getitdoneinspace]

OK Bill, your event has both my vices covered. But I am on the wrong coast tonight. Best of luck and looking forward to the release on youtube. I guess I can grab a local brew and watch the youtube release to satisfy my vices later. 

[D_Dom]

What were once vices are now habits. Thanks for sharing the link to your presentation.!

[daver]

For anybody interested living near North San Diego county, I'm giving a talk and slide show on SpaceX RTF at my favorite local science-themed brewpub, Wavelength Brewing Co, in Vista, CA tonight at 8PM. There will be a Youtube link later since they record these things.

https://www.facebook.com/events/1503174289995596/

I guess we know why Obama is in San Diego this weekend.

[ChrisC]

For anybody interested living near North San Diego county, I'm giving a talk and slide show on SpaceX RTF at my favorite local science-themed brewpub, Wavelength Brewing Co, in Vista, CA tonight at 8PM. There will be a Youtube link later since they record these things.

https://www.facebook.com/events/1503174289995596/

Youtube link!  Unfortunately, the slides are not visible, although anyone here has likely seen them all.  Audio is very low until 40m25s, when it suddenly jumps way up.

[woods170]

From the updates thread:

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 19 minutes ago
SpaceX VP Rosen: Current assessment is a return to flight w/ in 6-8 weeks.#IAC2015

And thus nicely moving into December as I predicted.

[The Roadie]

Youtube link!  Unfortunately, the slides are not visible, although anyone here has likely seen them all.  Audio is very low until 40m25s, when it suddenly jumps way up.

I think the brewpub owner has somebody working on editing something better together, from the three cameras he had going. And fixing the audio. Wicked sorry about all that.

I had many embedded videos that you probably have all seen, and I closed with the Cinesaurus "Launch You Up" Bruno Mars parody. I know I didn't prepare the audience to recognize all hundred in-jokes in that video, but was still hilarious in a geeky way.

A PDF of the slides is linked - first half is the full slides - second half includes my notes with more details. Missing from the PDF is the way things appear in sequence, such as the answers to the trivia questions.

Enjoy!
http://www.roadie.org/SpaceXTalk3.pdf

[feynmanrules]

From the updates thread:

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 19 minutes ago
SpaceX VP Rosen: Current assessment is a return to flight w/ in 6-8 weeks.#IAC2015

And thus nicely moving into December as I predicted.

first shotwell, then elon and now rosen... so this is 3rd time they've they were a "couple of months" away from RTF over the last couple months.    this isn't even an official net i believe.

deadlines are soft, but as long as they go when they're ready and not before that's whats important.

[gadgetmind]

There's a countdown clock here, and SpacePharma are rumoured to be on the next Falcon launch.

http://www.space4p.com/

That would suggest Dec 1st.

[Chris Bergin]

Welcome to the site's forum!

Still a bit soon for a good NET date as it has been jumping around a fair amount. The NET (still not a confirmed launch date) will come at some point during/after these milestones:

They need to conduct the full duration static fire at McGregor. They are about to tie up the CRS-7 investigation (paperwork).

Around this time I suspect we'll get a good idea of the NET.

They then need to ship the vehicle to the Cape. Then they need to hit the nominal flow, set up a hot fire date on SLC-40....and even then it can still move.

Where we stand is end of November, into December - ish

[Hauerg]

"What if first SLS launch fails"

Speaking completely seriously here, this is a thread I'd be interested in reading.

Im afraid that if SLS fails on it's 19th flight none of us will still be here to see this.

[The Amazing Catstronaut]

Im afraid that if SLS fails on it's 19th flight none of us will still be here to see this.

It's not -that- far into the future.

[CraigLieb]

There's a countdown clock here, and SpacePharma are rumoured to be on the next Falcon launch.

http://www.space4p.com/

That would suggest Dec 1st.

couldn't help but "Like" this members first post..  has a perfect record now. 1 post, 1 like!