Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[gongora]

The order has been signed for the postpetition financing.
https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47378/816199_121.pdf

The notice of the bankruptcy auction was published in today's (May 1) New York Times.
(The order with the sale procedures is here: https://casedocs.omniagentsolutions.com/cmsvol2/pub_47378/815644_104.pdf)

[Rondaz]

.@amazon is understood to be among the firms sifting through @OneWeb’s data room as the UK-headquartered company conducts a firesale. It joins @elonmusk's @SpaceX and @Eutelsat_SA in conducting due diligence ahead of a deadline late on Monday, May 4th, for expressions of interest

https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1256966235713146893

[Oli]

These numbers are not weird.  He's doing a quick engineering estimate and is showing a 600% difference.

I don't trust any economic analysis in the SpaceX section of this forum. The reality distortion field is simply too strong there.

[meekGee]

These numbers are not weird.  He's doing a quick engineering estimate and is showing a 600% difference.

I don't trust any economic analysis in the SpaceX section of this forum. The reality distortion field is simply too strong there.

I hate to break it to you, but of the many entrants in the new space economy, SpaceX/StarlLink are the only ones delivering in any commercially meaningful way. Maybe RocketLab too.

To post in a OneWeb thread and cast aspersions on the "reality factor" of StarLink is just ironic.

[butters]

It seems prudent for any company with a significant interest in this market to take a good look at the assets, even if they have no serious interest in the OneWeb bankruptcy auction, just to gain insight into the competition. What are their needs and wants, and how much is it worth to them? SpaceX and Amazon are like a couple of dogs who seem more interested in sniffing each other than the rotting carcass they are ostensibly fighting over.

[Robotbeat]

These numbers are not weird.  He's doing a quick engineering estimate and is showing a 600% difference.

I don't trust any economic analysis in the SpaceX section of this forum. The reality distortion field is simply too strong there.

I hate to break it to you, but of the many entrants in the new space economy, SpaceX/StarlLink are the only ones delivering in any commercially meaningful way. Maybe RocketLab too.

To post in a OneWeb thread and cast aspersions on the "reality factor" of StarLink is just ironic.

I kind of agree with your point, but more than just RocketLab. Off-topic.

[Rondaz]

.@ThinKom_Inc Ku-band antenna demonstrates LEO interoperability: "ThinKom did not identify the satellite constellation used in the test, but an early version of the April 30 press release linked to an image of the antenna, which was titled '@OneWeb connectivity trials.'"

https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1257741326994604033

[meekGee]

These numbers are not weird.  He's doing a quick engineering estimate and is showing a 600% difference.

I don't trust any economic analysis in the SpaceX section of this forum. The reality distortion field is simply too strong there.

I hate to break it to you, but of the many entrants in the new space economy, SpaceX/StarlLink are the only ones delivering in any commercially meaningful way. Maybe RocketLab too.

To post in a OneWeb thread and cast aspersions on the "reality factor" of StarLink is just ironic.

I kind of agree with your point, but more than just RocketLab. Off-topic.

:  I left myself some wiggle room by inserting the weasel phrase "meaningful way"...

[Rondaz]

Nonbinding bid indications for all/part of @OneWeb came in from 2 Chinese organizations; @eutelsat with several EU nations and unclear @EU_Commission tie-in; @SpaceX; @Amazon #KuiperSystemsLLC; @CerberusCapital. https://bit.ly/2A4TqUJ

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1258013676839284737

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Scratch SpaceX:

twitter.com/geekwire/status/1258282367086587904

Amazon and SpaceX reportedly register interest in bankrupt OneWeb’s broadband constellation assets

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258304688828452865

Not SpaceX

[woods170]

Scratch SpaceX:

twitter.com/geekwire/status/1258282367086587904

Amazon and SpaceX reportedly register interest in bankrupt OneWeb’s broadband constellation assets

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258304688828452865

Not SpaceX

Yes. Peter B. was wrong.

[Rondaz]

As 2 Chinese buyers circle @OneWeb security concerns grow. @DeptofDefense asked for support package to keep the company in Western hands. @IoWBobSeely said: "We should be thinking much more carefully about potentially strategic technology."by @matthfield:

https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1259500695989993472

[Rondaz]

The hoped for gap in Arctic coverage that @OneWeb's bankruptcy could leave (or not) is probably why @SpaceX have already filed for a Starlink gateway in Prudhoe Bay, AK (@FCC C/S: E201994) despite they've no sats in high inclination orbits yet (70°/97.6°) that could cover Alaska.

https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1260279936620859392

[RocketGoBoom]

Greg Wyler, founder of OneWeb, interview in the aftermath of the OneWeb bankruptcy filing.

Based on his comments, I don't think anyone will likely buy OneWeb to finish it. He doesn't think there is a business case for significant rural consumer broadband in LEO. He might just be trying to scare off new investors into SpaceXStarlink after the bitter comments he and Elon/Shotwell have had over the years.

http://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/oneweb-special-edition/in-the-eye-of-the-storm-greg-wyler-breaks-cover-to-talk-oneweb/

would Wyler have even put together OneWeb, and he goes as far to call large-scale consumer broadband "dead on arrival" for satellite.

“I would have done things differently," Wyler said. "Technology has changed dramatically. Everyone is still on the 2012 OneWeb plan. It has taken nine years to turn that into a physical embodiment. The world has changed a lot. I still think OneWeb had and has tremendous value. A number of business plans were developed [for OneWeb] and a number of them have great value. But, the large-scale consumer broadband market is dead on arrival for satellite. It is niche at best.”

[niwax]

would Wyler have even put together OneWeb, and he goes as far to call large-scale consumer broadband "dead on arrival" for satellite.

“I would have done things differently," Wyler said. "Technology has changed dramatically. Everyone is still on the 2012 OneWeb plan. It has taken nine years to turn that into a physical embodiment. The world has changed a lot. I still think OneWeb had and has tremendous value. A number of business plans were developed [for OneWeb] and a number of them have great value. But, the large-scale consumer broadband market is dead on arrival for satellite. It is niche at best.”

I wonder what he told the people he asked for new funds just six months ago.

Also, you'd think that the new technology that completely changes their business would be developed and embraced by the flexible internet access startup instead of pulling the rug from under their feet.

[Rocket Rancher]

Greg Wyler, founder of OneWeb, interview in the aftermath of the OneWeb bankruptcy filing.

Based on his comments, I don't think anyone will likely buy OneWeb to finish it. He doesn't think there is a business case for significant rural consumer broadband in LEO. He might just be trying to scare off new investors into SpaceXStarlink after the bitter comments he and Elon/Shotwell have had over the years.

http://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/oneweb-special-edition/in-the-eye-of-the-storm-greg-wyler-breaks-cover-to-talk-oneweb/

would Wyler have even put together OneWeb, and he goes as far to call large-scale consumer broadband "dead on arrival" for satellite.

“I would have done things differently," Wyler said. "Technology has changed dramatically. Everyone is still on the 2012 OneWeb plan. It has taken nine years to turn that into a physical embodiment. The world has changed a lot. I still think OneWeb had and has tremendous value. A number of business plans were developed [for OneWeb] and a number of them have great value. But, the large-scale consumer broadband market is dead on arrival for satellite. It is niche at best.”

So, if the US Defense Dept. commits to wanting to buy services in the arctic region with OneWeb, does that not change the business case? Just asking ;-)

[RedLineTrain]

So, if the US Defense Dept. commits to wanting to buy services in the arctic region with OneWeb, does that not change the business case? Just asking ;-)

I doubt it.  How many billions away is the operational constellation?  $4 billion?  More?  The Pentagon might have some leeway, but I doubt they would play in those denominations.

There is some precedent with Iridium.  But that was a long, winding road that is more of a cautionary tale than something to be emulated.  If you don't remember the saga, there is a definitive book out where you can read all about it.  Instructive.

If the DoD wants to keep it out of Chinese hands, CFIUS can do that easily enough without going through any of the bureaucracy of spending.  There's a ton of it and running the gauntlet requires much more consensus than one military man's wishes.

[Redclaws]

About the book, are you referring to https://www.amazon.com/Eccentric-Orbits-Iridium-John-Bloom/dp/0802126782 ?

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1261286180714397697

Land ho! @Eutelsat reports broadcast growth, + Mbps consumption at key slots; hopes for long runway for Africa broadband to schools; says only window shopping at @OneWeb asset sale; to @Gogo@GlobalEagle@Speedcast_Intl et all: A contract's a contract. https://bit.ly/2Z5Z8Qt

[Robotbeat]

So there are folk on Twitter (which I'm taking a needed break from) using Greg Wyler's comments to justify the claim that Starlink was always just about military and commercial use was a "ruse."

...which is poppycock. The US military only spends maybe one billion per year on satcomm, maybe a couple billion if you include other stuff. Starlink (and OneWeb) are not gonna take all of that, either. The commercial market for low latency broadband is literally orders of magnitude larger and is growing much faster (plus Starlink could serve other things like satellite TV, backhaul, etc, beyond just end-user satellite internet).

Yes, the military is gonna be an anchor customer and (because they already have scanning terminals) will be some of the first to use the constellation(s). But Greg Wyler's OneWeb megaconstellation vision was always a LOT more humble than SpaceX's, and this is part of the reason why Greg Wyler took his football and went home, breaking up with SpaceX. And OneWeb's cost per gigabyte transmitted is easily 4 times that of even early Starlink's (consider they used Soyuz at like $50 million per launch at like 36 satellites per launch and each satellite considerably less capable than Starlink's which are launched 60 at a time at $30 million per launch), so I can buy Greg Wyler's argument for OneWeb's commercial/rural appeal being niche without saying the same argument should apply to Starlink. I mean, $80/month vs say $200/month for the same service... (well, Starlink should have lower latency)

The military, doubtless, is much less cost sensitive than consumers and would value some provider diversity and have some of the greatest desire for global low latency telecomms, so the fact they'd be interested in securing OneWeb's assets should come as no surprise.

Yeah, military as an anchor customer, but the real money by far is in consumers. Even take Iridium as an example. The original business case (i.e. wide access to mobile voice before the networks built-out cell service to rural areas) kind of became obsolete before it could be fully built out, so pretty much the military wanted it in the early years....

...but even by 2008, Iridium's commercial revenue exceeded its government revenue by a factor of 2 to 1, and by 2018 or so, commercial revenue exceeded government by 4 to 1.

Military revenue for megaconstellations is only barely enough to keep the minimum constellations alive. Anyone thinking Elon was promoting commercial usage as just a kind of saintly covering over a predominantly military project has absolutely zero idea how investors invest in stuff (and probably just has an ax to grind against him).

Investors with tolerance of risk want huge addressable markets and aren't going to take enormous risks just for a few hundred million a year in military revenue when they could be going after a space LEO telecomms market worth tens or maybe even eventually hundreds of billions of dollars.