Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1245045151745093637

Sources: @OneWeb missions, #Roscosmos's only significant remaining commercial launch contract, is in limbo after 3 missions, OneWeb's launch operations team laid off, equipment stuck in Baikonur. CONTEXT: http://russianspaceweb.com/oneweb.html#0331

[RocketGoBoom]

OneWeb's launch operations team laid off, equipment stuck in Baikonur.

This is why I don't think OneWeb is coming back and there won't be new investors. They are firing everyone except a few people to manage the satellites in orbit. So much knowledge has already walked out the door and is now job hunting. It will be almost impossible to put OneWeb back together.

If there was a promising investor in the wings waiting (Amazon or Jeff Bezos or Blue Origin or Arianespace) they would have provided what is called DIP financing (Debtor In Possession) as OneWeb entered bankruptcy. This allows the bankrupt company to continue operating and maintain critical staff while the bankruptcy process proceeds. The provider of the DIP financing is the top secured creditor above all other debts. So it would have been a cheap way to gain control eventually and preserve key staff.

If anyone was possibly considering finishing OneWeb for the spectrum rights, they would have provided a token amount of $25 million or so in order to keep the key staff employed until the new owner could take control and finish the constellation.

I think the only viable next step is for the bankruptcy trustee to notify the court there are no bidders, and the court will order the remaining staff to de-orbit the satellites, then close shop.

Just my opinion based on the evidence so far.

[Rondaz]

AirspaceIX's Tom Choi: "[...] I don’t believe we have seen the last chapter on @OneWeb. I heard that most of the contracts of OneWeb are assignable to its creditor, @SoftBank_Group. Are the satellites and the filing also pledged to Softbank as well?"

https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1245313937433939968

[CorvusCorax]

https://twitter.com/OneWebSatellit1/status/1244656905726894080

    We are disappointed & saddened that our partner @OneWeb was forced to seek bankruptcy protection. We, @OneWebSatellit1, are still operating, working closely w/@AirbusSpace on securing the future. We stand behind our OneWeb teammates as they go through this difficult period. ❤️❤️
    — OneWeb Satellites (@OneWebSatellit1) March 30, 2020

[gosnold]

I think one player we shouldn't forget in this play is Airbus.

The OneWeb factory that produces the satellite belongs to "One web satellites" which is a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus Defense and Space

I think they located the factory in the US as a US subsidiary because the want to offer the Arrow bus to the DoD, to build a proliferated LEO constellation. DARPA already has a contract with Airbus for bus design changes under he Blackjack program.

[ChrisWilson68]

I think one player we shouldn't forget in this play is Airbus.

The OneWeb factory that produces the satellite belongs to "One web satellites" which is a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus Defense and Space

I think they located the factory in the US as a US subsidiary because the want to offer the Arrow bus to the DoD, to build a proliferated LEO constellation. DARPA already has a contract with Airbus for bus design changes under he Blackjack program.

I don't think that theory holds water because the factory isn't owned by a "US subsidiary" of Airbus at all.  It's owned by a joint venture that is partly owned by Airbus and partly owned by the main OneWeb company.  If Airbus wants to offer something to the DoD, they'll do it as an actual fully-owned subsidiary.

[gosnold]

I don't think that theory holds water because the factory isn't owned by a "US subsidiary" of Airbus at all.  It's owned by a joint venture that is partly owned by Airbus and partly owned by the main OneWeb company.  If Airbus wants to offer something to the DoD, they'll do it as an actual fully-owned subsidiary.

Then why build the factory in Florida and not in Toulouse?

[ChrisWilson68]

I don't think that theory holds water because the factory isn't owned by a "US subsidiary" of Airbus at all.  It's owned by a joint venture that is partly owned by Airbus and partly owned by the main OneWeb company.  If Airbus wants to offer something to the DoD, they'll do it as an actual fully-owned subsidiary.

Then why build the factory in Florida and not in Toulouse?

I don't know.  It could be for any of a thousand different reasons.

The fact that I don't know the reason doesn't affect the validity of the logic that it's not to sell a satellite bus to the DoD.

[gongora]

I think part of the reason for spreading stuff around was to try and get buy in from multiple governments and loans from export credit agencies, but they spread it around so much that none of the governments really felt any need to support them.

[Asteroza]

The bus is being used/sold for an earth observation constellation as well, ostensibly, so it's not like the existing dispensers and partially completed buses are wasted. Completed sats might be a loss though, depending on how easy it is to switch from a comms to remote sensing payload.

[ChrisWilson68]

The bus is being used/sold for an earth observation constellation as well, ostensibly, so it's not like the existing dispensers and partially completed buses are wasted. Completed sats might be a loss though, depending on how easy it is to switch from a comms to remote sensing payload.

Can you give a source for the information about the bus being used for an Earth observation constellation?  I'd like to know how far along such plans were and how likely they are to actually go to orbit.  A lot of people claim a lot of things are going to happen in the future, but very few of them actually do.

[Asteroza]

The bus is being used/sold for an earth observation constellation as well, ostensibly, so it's not like the existing dispensers and partially completed buses are wasted. Completed sats might be a loss though, depending on how easy it is to switch from a comms to remote sensing payload.

Can you give a source for the information about the bus being used for an Earth observation constellation?  I'd like to know how far along such plans were and how likely they are to actually go to orbit.  A lot of people claim a lot of things are going to happen in the future, but very few of them actually do.

Uh, me, sort of (though I have zero relation/insider knowledge to anything OneWeb-ish)? EarthNow is the name.

https://earthnow.com/
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/earthnow-video-orbit/


They were still looking lively in February of 2019, but it looks like less than a month later the might have either flamed out or been consumed by someone else though...

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45513.0

LinkedIn company page is gone, so I assume at this point the employees have scattered to the four winds...

At the time it seemed serious enough to pay attention to, but that may have been due to a Softbank marketing blitz leaving false impressions.

[heiterefahne]

What other (space) companies could feel the fallout of OneWeb's collapse? RUAG Space, for instance, produces the satellite structures (in Titusville, FL) and the dispensers (in Sweden) -- source.

Plus of course the fairings for the Ariane 5 and 6 launches planned with OneWeb. That's a big chunk of revenue at risk.

Then there's the potential ripple going through the VC world for anything related to constellations/NewSpace, as Tom Choi said. This might dry up funding for NewSpace projects even after COVID-19 diminishes.

[gosnold]

The bus is being used/sold for an earth observation constellation as well, ostensibly, so it's not like the existing dispensers and partially completed buses are wasted. Completed sats might be a loss though, depending on how easy it is to switch from a comms to remote sensing payload.

For Earth Observation you need a bit different CMGs I think, because the pointing requirements are stricter than for comms.

Can you give a source for the information about the bus being used for an Earth observation constellation?  I'd like to know how far along such plans were and how likely they are to actually go to orbit.  A lot of people claim a lot of things are going to happen in the future, but very few of them actually do.

The CO3D optical satellites sold to France use the Oneweb bus with a few modifications, but that's only 4 satellites.

[ringsider]

OneWeb's launch operations team laid off, equipment stuck in Baikonur.

This is why I don't think OneWeb is coming back and there won't be new investors. They are firing everyone except a few people to manage the satellites in orbit. So much knowledge has already walked out the door and is now job hunting. It will be almost impossible to put OneWeb back together.

If there was a promising investor in the wings waiting (Amazon or Jeff Bezos or Blue Origin or Arianespace) they would have provided what is called DIP financing (Debtor In Possession) as OneWeb entered bankruptcy. This allows the bankrupt company to continue operating and maintain critical staff while the bankruptcy process proceeds. The provider of the DIP financing is the top secured creditor above all other debts. So it would have been a cheap way to gain control eventually and preserve key staff.

If anyone was possibly considering finishing OneWeb for the spectrum rights, they would have provided a token amount of $25 million or so in order to keep the key staff employed until the new owner could take control and finish the constellation.

I think the only viable next step is for the bankruptcy trustee to notify the court there are no bidders, and the court will order the remaining staff to de-orbit the satellites, then close shop.

Just my opinion based on the evidence so far.

If no-one steps up to support/acquire the business as-is it will go to liquidation. In a liquidation, the trustee will attempt to sell those satellites on orbit and other assets at auction, or for an agreed package bid, before they are shut down.

I can see someone like Airbus being interested in picking that up for a song, potentially offsetting some of the cost advantage Spacex has by gaining the factory, ground assets and orbital assets for a tiny fraction of what Wyler spent to get to that point. Airbus can work with Arianespace to structure a sweet deal to pay back the money owed and rescue all those Soyuz launches, this helping itself while also hurting Virgin's launch business in the process. Note that Virgin was not listed as a creditor, possibly because to do so would be admiting the money is actually owed, which OneWeb contends is not the case.

It's the same model as Iridium; if you don't have to pay the ridiculous upfront costs, the business case closes much more readily.

[Robotbeat]

Airbus is also losing a bunch of money in the bankruptcy, so arguing that's an overall cost advantage may be just an accounting trick.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1245667846346149888

.@OneWeb says it'll get bids for its spectrum in May, conclude auction in June and get bankruptcy court OK for sale by August. @SoftBank@Airbus@Qualcomm_Tech. https://bit.ly/2xMSJxZ

OneWeb had a preliminary hearing on March 31.  A bunch of documents were filed on April 1.  If anyone gets bored today they can take a look through them:
OneWeb Bankruptcy Case Web Site

Exhibit B
Milestones
 no later than 5/11/2020, the Debtors shall have received one or more non-binding
letters of intent for the spectrum assets
 no later than 6/12/2020, the Debtors shall have received one or more binding bids
to sell the spectrum assets in form and substance satisfactory to the Required
Holders
 no later than 6/22/2020, the Debtors shall have concluded any auction and entered
into a binding agreement to sell the spectrum assets, subject only to approval from
the Court and any applicable regulatory approvals and otherwise in form and
substance satisfactory to the Required Holders
 no later than 7 calendar days following the Debtors’ entry into a binding
commitment to sell the spectrum assets, whether following an auction or otherwise,
to the extent the sale is not proposed through a plan of reorganization, the Court
shall have entered a binding order approving the sale (the “Sale Order”)
 provided that a sale is proposed through a plan of reorganization, no later than
35 calendar days after the auction or entry by the Debtors into a binding agreement
to sell the spectrum assets if an auction is not held, the Court shall have entered an
order approving the disclosure statement for such plan of reorganization (the
“Disclosure Statement Order”)
 provided that a sale is proposed through a plan of reorganization, no later than 45
calendar days after the Court has entered the Disclosure Statement Order, the Court
shall have entered an order confirming such plan of reorganization (the
“Confirmation Order”)
 no later than 45 calendar days after the entry of the Confirmation Order or the Sale
Order, as applicable, the sale shall have been substantially consummated; provided
that such milestone shall be automatically extended for an additional 90 days solely
to the extent regulatory approvals remain outstanding for the spectrum sale.

[CorvusCorax]

that makes it sound as if the spectrum was OneWeb's most valuable asset.

It comes with a caveat tough. If I am not mistaken, these spectrums become void if they are not used pretty soon. Buying the spectrum without also buying the on-orbit satellites that use it (or at least leasing their transponders from whoever buys them) and launching more -- or launching ones own constellation with transponders capable of using that spectrum into comparable orbits - would be a waste of money.

I think this puts Amazon at a relatively large disadvantage. If they could buy the spectrum cheap, now in an auction during a world financial crisis, and then use it 10 years from now when they have hardware and demand is high would be awesome, but I have a suspicion it won't work that way.

I think the number of players who can actually use that spectrum right away and launch enough additional sats in the near term to not forfeit it, is pretty limited.

SpaceX could.
Airbus/ArianeGroup could.
Maybe some randomly appearing Chinese company could.

Who else is a potential buyer?

[gongora]

There is still 3 years to get half of the constellation up for the FCC deadline, and probably more for the ITU.  Also the FCC would probably grant a waiver if someone was actively deploying sats but was still a little short at the deadline.

[RocketGoBoom]

There is still 3 years to get half of the constellation up for the FCC deadline, and probably more for the ITU.  Also the FCC would probably grant a waiver if someone was actively deploying sats but was still a little short at the deadline.

Wouldn't a new investor, who buys merely the spectrum, have to continue with the plan FCC/ITU filed by OneWeb? And to do that, they would need to keep going with the OneWeb satellite design and launch schedule on Soyuz. I cannot imagine a scenario where a new investor brings a new satellite design and a new launch schedule on a different rocket. It is already too late for that. In order to use the FCC/ITU approved spectrum for OneWeb, they would need to utilize the existing OneWeb constellation and finish it.

With all of the staff that has been fired and is now job hunting, that just seems really improbable to me that anyone can put OneWeb back together again with all of the key staff.

And with the current financial/health crisis, I don't see a lot of deep pockets out there willing to do it or having the technical chops to do it.

1) I really don't think Jeff Bezos is interested in launching OneWeb on Soyuz. He would only be interested in launching stuff on his BO New Glenn rocket, and that won't launch until 2021 and won't really be launching much until 2024-2025. I expect their first few years will only have a few launches as they figure out their cadence. Falcon 9 only launched twice per year for the first few years.

2) Arianespace probably can't afford a new $2 billion project, which some have estimated is the cost to continue and complete OneWeb.

3) SoftBank is having a cash crunch, just withdrew their plans on WeWork and a bunch of other unicorn investments. I don't see them throwing good money after bad on OneWeb. They had that option before the bankruptcy and said No.

Is there any other conceivable investor out there with the financial ability and technical knowledge to finish OneWeb?