Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[ChrisWilson68]

Not sure if I missed it somewhere: SoftBank’s OneWeb to Consider Bankruptcy as Cash Dwindles

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/softbank-e2-80-99s-oneweb-to-consider-bankruptcy-as-cash-dwindles/ar-BB11qHHB

The timing coincides unfortunately with them revealing they were fundraising over the last few weeks. They don't have massive revenues that suddenly dried up, so it looks like their funding fell through.

With Softbank reeling from a number of bad investments, they might be persuaded to give up their stake for cash to fill the Vision Fund. Airbus and friends won't be happy about Amazon (and by extension Blue Origin) muscling in though.

Are Airbus and Softbank equity or debt holders?  Because in a bankruptcy typically it doesn't matter what equity holders think.  They will get wiped out.  The debt holders will end up owning the restructured company.

[RocketGoBoom]

With Softbank reeling from a number of bad investments, they might be persuaded to give up their stake for cash to fill the Vision Fund. Airbus and friends won't be happy about Amazon (and by extension Blue Origin) muscling in though.

Airbus and friends would be thrilled if Amazon or Jeff Bezos bought OneWeb for pennies on the dollar in bankruptcy and finished OneWeb or renamed it Kuiper. Amazon or Bezos might do it just for the spectrum rights and finish on the required ITU schedule.

Airbus has a joint venture building satellites in Florida with OneWeb. Airanespace has 19 more launches already scheduled for Soyuz and Ariane 6 on their manifest. All of that becomes worthless if OneWeb completely disappears. They are probably desperate to find anyone that will finish the OneWeb constellation.

Jeff Bezos is probably the only person with the motivation and the cash to do it right now with this financial crisis happening. He could pick the entire thing up for pennies on the dollar. $3 billion invested by OneWeb so far, Jeff Bezos steps in with $100 million and buys it for his loose change in the couch.

Are Airbus and Softbank equity or debt holders?  Because in a bankruptcy typically it doesn't matter what equity holders think.  They will get wiped out.  The debt holders will end up owning the restructured company.

Unknown. But since OneWeb has no revenue yet, most likely pure equity. If it all goes to bankruptcy in this environment, then I suspect anyone bidding cash could buy all of OneWeb assets for a song.

[RedLineTrain]

Bankruptcies are effective in working out of obligations, but they do create operations turmoil.  The courts will be clogged with all the other bankruptcies.  Proceed with caution, lest you fall behind Starlink even farther.

[gongora]

Most of OneWeb's launches on Soyuz should already be paid for.

If they did go into bankruptcy it might help force a resolution to the disputes on those putrid contracts with Virgin Orbit and Intelsat.  Just those two could easily affect the value of the company by a billion dollars.  (Actually, I don't know much about bankruptcy in the UK.)

Deployment milestones should be 360 sats by June 2023 and 720 sats by June 2026.  (The OneWeb license was granted before the deployment rules changed, so it shows the old milestone date of 720 by 2023).  Their ITU filing is for a larger number of sats, but also has different milestones (they've obviously met the bringing into use milestone).

I'm trying to refresh (or maybe expand) my knowledge of how transfers of control affect the situation when the satellites are part of a FCC processing round.  So far it seems like it's ok as long as the party with the license actually tried to use it (OneWeb has designed and launched satellites).  I think there are rules about combining with another company that's in the same processing round, but haven't run across that text yet and I don't think anyone else in the processing round would be looking to spend the money on acquiring OneWeb.

[Llian Rhydderch]

Both OneWeb and the SpaceX constellation made their initial public announcements of an intent to develop a satellite internet constellation in the same month: January 2015. 

They obviously pursued different strategies and tactics.  OneWeb clearly had the early lead in spectrum allocation, but SpaceX history of rethinking industries from first principles, and then relentlessly iterating and executing on that, may have given SpaceX some advantage.

With public announcements and filings over the years, it became clear that SpaceX was aiming for a much lower cost satellite manufacturing target, with much higher volume.  Once OneWeb signed on a traditional space manufacturer for their sats, even one that was aiming to substantially reduce costs per sat, with a build strategy that had much higher costs per sat (including launch costs per sat), it became rather clear that if SpaceX was successful in executing their strategy, the competition grinder would be favoring Starlink on multiple margins.  This was a couple of years ago.

SpaceX has now demonstrated significant successful execution on their strategy.  They beat OneWeb to orbit with a much more capable (portion of a) constellation.  OneWeb was already in deep trouble with the high cost structure that they had chosen to bake into many contracts and business agreements.

The current liquidity crises and market turmoil during Covid-19 times is merely a set of emergent events that make the time to be now.  The handwriting had been on the wall for a while now.

[ChrisWilson68]

With Softbank reeling from a number of bad investments, they might be persuaded to give up their stake for cash to fill the Vision Fund. Airbus and friends won't be happy about Amazon (and by extension Blue Origin) muscling in though.

Airbus and friends would be thrilled if Amazon or Jeff Bezos bought OneWeb for pennies on the dollar in bankruptcy and finished OneWeb or renamed it Kuiper. Amazon or Bezos might do it just for the spectrum rights and finish on the required ITU schedule.

Airbus has a joint venture building satellites in Florida with OneWeb. Airanespace has 19 more launches already scheduled for Soyuz and Ariane 6 on their manifest. All of that becomes worthless if OneWeb completely disappears. They are probably desperate to find anyone that will finish the OneWeb constellation.

If Bezos buys it, there's a chance Airbus will still keep the contract to build the satellites.  But I think it's unlikely they'll fly on Airanespace rockets.

Most of OneWeb's launches on Soyuz should already be paid for.

My understanding is that the standard in the launch industry is for customers to make milestone payments that spread the costs over the period before the launch.  The farther out the launch, the lower the portion of the cost has been paid by the customer.

Since a lot of the OneWeb launches are still a ways out, I would think that a large amount has yet to be paid on those contracts.  Bankruptcy would allow OneWeb out of having to make any more payments on those launch contracts.

[RedLineTrain]

Wiping the slate clean on all of these complex satellite deals sounds like a good idea until you really get into it.  Iridium's experience through bankruptcy is instructive.  Took them a decade to unwind the deals and no white knight (a la Bezos) wanted to touch them throughout.  The constellation was about to be deorbited dozens of times and it took the Pentagon (mostly unlawfully) at White House direction to save it.  It helped that Iridium was not in competition with anybody and that they were U.S. domiciled.  No such luck for OneWeb.

It's interesting that they are running out of money even before they start the launch campaign in earnest and shipping user terminals.  Surprising how far from success they are, what with the last financing round in the door.  Maybe the Softbank cash was to be paid in several tranches and Softbank is withholding the later tranches.

[Llian Rhydderch]

Where are the mission-specific threads for OneWeb kept?

Is their a specific thread for the March 2020 OneWeb payload on an Arianespace-arranged Soyuz flight?  Having trouble locating it.

[AnalogMan]

Where are the mission-specific threads for OneWeb kept?

Is their a specific thread for the March 2020 OneWeb payload on an Arianespace-arranged Soyuz flight?  Having trouble locating it.

Hidden under International Spaceflight [...]/Russian Launches [...]

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50074.0

[gongora]

Where are the mission-specific threads for OneWeb kept?

Is their a specific thread for the March 2020 OneWeb payload on an Arianespace-arranged Soyuz flight?  Having trouble locating it.

Look at the top post in this thread.

[Llian Rhydderch]

The press kit for the ST-28 OneWeb launch on Saturday, 21 March, includes this:

OneWeb Satellites  a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus Defence and Space  is the
constellation’s prime contractor. The OneWeb spacecraft for Flight ST28 were built in OneWeb
Satellites’ Florida-based series production line dedicated to the assembly, integration, and test of
the OneWeb satellites.

Since OneWeb constellation satellites are being manufactured by is a JV between both OneWeb, the company, and Airbus Defence and Space, what sort of likelihood might there be for the European space industrial complex to make a bid for the assets as the OneWeb company goes under?

The Europeans wanted, and fielded, their own satnav system, Gallileo. 

Question:  What is the chance that they'll want to not be dependent on American (Starlink or Project Kuiper) or Canadian (Telesat) satellite internet communications technologies or networks  ... and may just decide that continuing with the (former) OneWeb constellation, including finding the several billion Euros necessary to complete it, is in their political best interest?

_{Edited to clarify the nature of the JV, per Gongora's subsequent post}

[gongora]

The press kit for the ST-28 OneWeb launch on Saturday, 21 March, includes this:

OneWeb Satellites  a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus Defence and Space  is the
constellation’s prime contractor. The OneWeb spacecraft for Flight ST28 were built in OneWeb
Satellites’ Florida-based series production line dedicated to the assembly, integration, and test of
the OneWeb satellites.

Since OneWeb constellation is a JV between both OneWeb, the company, and Airbus Defence and Space, what sort of likelihood might there be for the European space industrial complex to make a bid for the assets as the OneWeb company goes under?

The Europeans wanted, and fielded, their own satnav system, Gallileo. 

Question:  What is the chance that they'll want to not be dependent on American (Starlink or Project Kuiper) or Canadian (Telesat) satellite internet communications technologies or networks  ... and may just decide that continuing with the (former) OneWeb constellation, including finding the several billion Euros necessary to complete it, is in their political best interest?

The company that builds the satellites is a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus.  The satellites and constellation are owned by OneWeb.

[GWR64]

Theoretically, who is liable if the OneWeb starts do not continue?
The Russian manufacturers will want their money.
Is Arianespace liable as the seller?

[ChrisWilson68]

Theoretically, who is liable if the OneWeb starts do not continue?
The Russian manufacturers will want their money.
Is Arianespace liable as the seller?

Nobody is liable.  The money will never be paid by anyone and work will stop on the Soyuz rockets under construction.  Eventually, they'll be completed and used for some other purpose.

The reason money for launch contracts is due over time before the launch is to roughly cover the costs of the rocket manufacture.  If the rocket is 50% complete (in terms of cost), in theory the company will have received 50% of the money.

So, the manufacturer doesn't lose money if OneWeb ceases operation.  They actually end up with the benefit of having some partially-complete rockets that they can keep and finish later, so it's a net win for them.

That's in theory.  It depends, though, on exactly how these launch contracts were structured.

[GWR64]

Thank you. Most of the Soyuz and Fregat for OneWeb are done.
I understood it like that.  So they're already paid?

https://twitter.com/anik1982space/status/1240989008605347845

[GWR64]

So, the manufacturer doesn't lose money if OneWeb ceases operation.  They actually end up with the benefit of having some partially-complete rockets that they can keep and finish later, so it's a net win for them.
 

I think the manufacturers RKZ Progress, NPO Lavochkin etc. sell the Soyuz and Fregat only once.
If OneWeb would stop, there would still be (maybe 15) ready Soyuz and Fregat.
Suitable for the different rocket launch sites.
This would result in a massive drop in orders for manufacturers over the next few years. NPOL could probably stop the Fregat production.

[ChrisWilson68]

So, the manufacturer doesn't lose money if OneWeb ceases operation.  They actually end up with the benefit of having some partially-complete rockets that they can keep and finish later, so it's a net win for them.
 

I think the manufacturers RKZ Progress, NPO Lavochkin etc. sell the Soyuz and Fregat only once.
If OneWeb would stop, there would still be (maybe 15) ready Soyuz and Fregat.
Suitable for the different rocket launch sites.
This would result in a massive drop in orders for manufacturers over the next few years. NPOL could probably stop the Fregat production.

What's your source for those claims?

[GWR64]

So, the manufacturer doesn't lose money if OneWeb ceases operation.  They actually end up with the benefit of having some partially-complete rockets that they can keep and finish later, so it's a net win for them.
 

I think the manufacturers RKZ Progress, NPO Lavochkin etc. sell the Soyuz and Fregat only once.
If OneWeb would stop, there would still be (maybe 15) ready Soyuz and Fregat.
Suitable for the different rocket launch sites.
This would result in a massive drop in orders for manufacturers over the next few years. NPOL could probably stop the Fregat production.

What's your source for those claims?

That's what i think.

[Llian Rhydderch]

The company that builds the satellites is a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus.  The satellites and constellation are owned by OneWeb.

Thanks, Gongora.  I've updated my post.

My question remains. 

With the emergence of new LEO satcomm services from US and Canadian players, and the strong European connection with OneWeb (both the manufacturing JV with Airbus Defence and Space and with the strong Arianespace interest in the multi-year endeavor),
what sort of likelihood might exist for the European space industrial interests to make a bid for the assets as the OneWeb company goes under?

[ChrisWilson68]

The company that builds the satellites is a joint venture between OneWeb and Airbus.  The satellites and constellation are owned by OneWeb.

Thanks, Gongora.  I've updated my post.

My question remains. 

With the emergence of new LEO satcomm services from US and Canadian players, and the strong European connection with OneWeb (both the manufacturing JV with Airbus Defence and Space and with the strong Arianespace interest in the multi-year endeavor),
what sort of likelihood might exist for the European space industrial interests to make a bid for the assets as the OneWeb company goes under?

A lot less likelihood than there would be if we weren't in the middle of a global health and economic catastrophe.