Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[Comga]

Roskosmos will launch other satellites on rockets built for OneWeb.

Roskosmos will launch other satellites on six Soyuz rockets built for OneWeb.

03:19 03/22/2022 (updated: 03:58 03/22/2022)

MOSCOW, March 22 - RIA Novosti. Russia will withdraw from the project six Soyuz rockets intended for launching OneWeb satellites, they will be used for launches under the federal program and for other customers, Dmitry Strugovets, head of the Roscosmos press service, told reporters.

"Roscosmos is withdrawing from the OneWeb project six launch vehicles paid for by a foreign customer," Strugovets said.

He specified that Soyuz would be used by the state corporation to provide launches under the federal program, as well as in the interests of other customers.

Russia refused to launch OneWeb satellites after the British government did not want to leave the directors of the company, and the satellite company itself did not give guarantees that the devices would not be used for military purposes.

Roskosmos CEO Dmitry Rogozin said earlier that the satellites of private Russian companies will be launched on the rockets built under OneWeb, and this will be done practically free of charge, since the rockets have already been paid for by a foreign company, and Roscosmos will not transfer them to it. In addition, according to Rogozin, OneWeb will go bankrupt after that.

Is this propaganda still On Topic for the OneWeb Constellation thread?
This has nothing to do with OneWeb except for the boilerplate at the end that has been repeated by ria.ru for three weeks now.
Bombast from Rogozin, playing to his cadre, belongs in a policy thread, if it belongs on NSF at all.
Can we at least be done with it here?

[Zed_Noir]

OneWeb have to spend wisely. There is only so many times they can ask for bailout before OneWeb become a political embarrassment. They have to launch their gen-2 satcoms as quickly and as cheaply as possible. So that likely mean they will sign most if not all of their launch contracts with the provider that is the least expensive with the most launch opportunities.

I don't know when they're planning on starting to build/launch their Gen 2 satellites, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking 2025-2027 timeframe. That's far enough in the future, that I think it's premature to speculate on which launch provider will be the best value for OneWeb at that point in time.

~Jon

Have to disagree about the time frame that OneWeb should start deploying their gen-2 comsats. OneWeb will not gain much market share if all they have in orbit are the gen-1 comsats until 2026. It will result in an almost impossible uphill climb for OneWeb to compete with gen-3+ Starlink comsats (being conservative here with the upgrade rate for the Starlink comsats). They need to start getting their gen-2 comsats in orbit by late 2024 to remain viable in the marketplace, IMO.

[M.E.T.]

It seems likely F9 will complete most of the initial constellation, with possibly some going to PSLV.  The 1st gen constellation was supposed to be completed in August, so they don't really have time to wait for the plethora of new launchers that will be starting to roll out soon.

Given how few launches they have left, and the fact that splitting between multiple launches might require different adapters to be designed/analyzed, my guess is they'll just finish Gen 1 on Falcon 9. Back when we discussed this a few weeks back, it was pretty clear that SpaceX is the only option that has spare capacity at the moment. There should be many new launchers coming online this year, or early next year, but at this point OneWeb doesn't have a lot of options.

On the plus side, this means I'll get to see DogTags go up on OneWeb satellites on a Falcon 9. :-)

~Jon

This is ultimately and ironically good news for Neutron etc. OneWeb (the only other currently partially launched megaconstellation besides Starlink, this a substantial source for future cost-sensitive launch demand) stays alive and the business argument for not being reliant on geopolitically risky launch providers gets even stronger.

Even more reason to question the wisdom of SpaceX’s decision here.‍♂️

Why? SpaceX benefits if the overall space market gets bigger.

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

In the first case, if you assume SpaceX just executes much faster than OneWeb so they can turn capital into profit or growth at a much greater rate, then the money they earn from OneWeb can help SpaceX invest more in their own goal faster than the money saved by OneWeb can help expand their constellation.

But overall, it helps SpaceX by growing the whole market. Stabilizing investment in the industry, lowering cost of capital for SpaceX as well as others. Do you want to own 99% of a $100 billion industry or 50% of a $10 trillion dollar industry?

Keep in mind Elon/SpaceX’s long term goal in all of this as well.

SpaceX’s interests are in making humanity a multiplanet species by enabling reusable, cheap space launch. So those interests are advanced by competitors like Neutron.

Sure, the concept is sound. In this case, however, the trillion dollar market is space internet, while the launch industry will likely top out at $10B, especially if launch prices drop by an order of magnitude. $10B at $100/kg to LEO gives you 100,000 tons to LEO a year. Gonna be some time before that demand is exceeded.

So in that context maximising your share of the much bigger pie (space internet) seems to make sense.

On the flipside, SpaceX proving to be a reliable, approachable albeit “near-monopoly” launch provider might actually DISincentivize competition, as people are less likely to feel the need for a SpaceX alternative if they prove a cheap and accessible launch provider to all. Maybe THAT’s part of the goal here.

Anyway, seems like this discussion is happening on multiple threads now, so I might continue it over on the SpaceX side of the forum.👍

[Kaputnik]

OneWeb have to spend wisely. There is only so many times they can ask for bailout before OneWeb become a political embarrassment.

I think you may be underestimating the UK government's capacity to endure embarrassment.

[Star One]

OneWeb have to spend wisely. There is only so many times they can ask for bailout before OneWeb become a political embarrassment.

I think you may be underestimating the UK government's capacity to endure embarrassment.

LOL so true.

[Rondaz]

We are excited to share that we have signed a distribution partnership agreement with @Eutelsat Communications. The agreement paves the way for Eutelsat to provide OneWeb services across key sectors.

https://twitter.com/OneWeb/status/1506255741182693377

[Rondaz]

#PressRelease: Hughes Debuts Multi-Transport Satellite-LTE Capability, Unveils Groundbreaking New Flat Panel Antenna Technology for
@OneWeb Service.

https://twitter.com/HughesConnects/status/1506250363011223566

[Rondaz]

We are delighted to announce that we have signed a distribution partner agreement with @Kymeta, a world leading company for flat panel antennas making mobile global.

https://twitter.com/OneWeb/status/1506293822355091460

[Rondaz]

We are pleased to confirm that @Telstra will be building and managing three new dedicated teleports across Australia to provide satellite gateway services for OneWeb in the Southern Hemisphere.

https://twitter.com/OneWeb/status/1506309452974239744

[TrevorMonty]

Does Oneweb pay for these ground stations of does Telstra?. If Telestra I assume they are local Oneweb provider.

Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[Comga]

#PressRelease: Hughes Debuts Multi-Transport Satellite-LTE Capability, Unveils Groundbreaking New Flat Panel Antenna Technology for
@OneWeb Service.

https://twitter.com/HughesConnects/status/1506250363011223566

“The Hughes flat panel LEO antenna technology is unlike any developed to date,” said Adrian Morris, Executive Vice President, Engineering, Hughes.

How is this really “groundbreaking “?
Just puffery?
Do we have any comparisons to the Starlink “dish”?

[launchwatcher]

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

In many cases, it may be better to be the top dog in a competitive ecosystem than to be the only game in town.  Investors can value your company better if there is more than one data point.  Sub-contractors are more likely to participate in a market if there is more than one buyer.  More people thinking about the problems involved will generate additional ideas, including those you may not have thought of yourself, but can adopt.  You get real-world data on approaches you yourself have not tried.  Competition prevents you from resting on an adequate solution, and not trying risky improvements.  And so on...

In addition, the existence of a viable competitor or two makes it harder for regulators to successfully assert that you have monopoly power.

[dglow]

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

In many cases, it may be better to be the top dog in a competitive ecosystem than to be the only game in town.  Investors can value your company better if there is more than one data point.  Sub-contractors are more likely to participate in a market if there is more than one buyer.  More people thinking about the problems involved will generate additional ideas, including those you may not have thought of yourself, but can adopt.  You get real-world data on approaches you yourself have not tried.  Competition prevents you from resting on an adequate solution, and not trying risky improvements.  And so on...

In addition, the existence of a viable competitor or two makes it harder for regulators to successfully assert that you have monopoly power.

Yup. I wonder whether “tell your lobbyists to back off in objections to our FCC filings” might have been a ‘condition’ of OneWeb and SpaceX’s launch contract. Granted, it’s Amazon that have been the noisiest in this regard.

[alanr74]

Yup. I wonder whether “tell your lobbyists to back off in objections to our FCC filings” might have been a ‘condition’ of OneWeb and SpaceX’s launch contract. Granted, it’s Amazon that have been the noisiest in this regard.

It's hard to know, considering the strings the UK government could pull, via the US gov.

You could say OneWeb was put in the situation because the UK government is a major shareholder and wouldn't give that up. So the UK could easily make a few phone calls and request help from the US gov.

or as you say, they might have quietened the board members and their hatred of all things Starlink. 

[chopsticks]

Sorry if this is a dumb question or has already been answered, but what's the latest on OneWeb's satellites meant to launch a few days ago? Are they still being held by Roscomos in Kazakhstan? Is there a way to get them out of the country or might Russia dispose of them? And if the satellites are lost, does OneWeb have enough ready to go to launch on F9 on time or will they have to quickly manufacture a bunch?

[Yiosie]

Sorry if this is a dumb question or has already been answered, but what's the latest on OneWeb's satellites meant to launch a few days ago? Are they still being held by Roscomos in Kazakhstan? Is there a way to get them out of the country or might Russia dispose of them? And if the satellites are lost, does OneWeb have enough ready to go to launch on F9 on time or will they have to quickly manufacture a bunch?

Roskosmos stops the 14th OneWeb mission

Before March 20, all foreign personnel that participated in the 14th OneWeb mission had safely departed Baikonur, but the satellites packed inside sealed containers remained stuck at the center's clean room due to lack of authorization to transport them back to the United States. Despite continuous attempts to obtain the shipment permission, as of March 20 Russian authorities refused to clear the transfer.

[TrevorMonty]

Sorry if this is a dumb question or has already been answered, but what's the latest on OneWeb's satellites meant to launch a few days ago? Are they still being held by Roscomos in Kazakhstan? Is there a way to get them out of the country or might Russia dispose of them? And if the satellites are lost, does OneWeb have enough ready to go to launch on F9 on time or will they have to quickly manufacture a bunch?

The satellites can be replaced easily enough given how many OneWeb are building monthly. They may yet get them back after Ukraine war finishes but by then could be obsolete.

Whether they will ever get money paid towards Soyzu launches is another story. Can't see them ever getting this back given Roscomos financial future isn't looking good.

Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[Zed_Noir]

Sorry if this is a dumb question or has already been answered, but what's the latest on OneWeb's satellites meant to launch a few days ago? Are they still being held by Roscomos in Kazakhstan? Is there a way to get them out of the country or might Russia dispose of them? And if the satellites are lost, does OneWeb have enough ready to go to launch on F9 on time or will they have to quickly manufacture a bunch?

AIUI, the comsat batch in Kazakhstan is a write off. After the OneWeb personnel left it become necessary to re-certified the comsat batch for flight. Think it cost as much to re-certified as it is to manufactured a comsat. So might as well build a new comsat that is definitely not temper with. OneWeb probably still want the comsats back, preferably without any additional "processing" fee from the Russians.

Since the OneWeb comsat factory on Merritt Island is quite close to SpaceX's Florida facilities. That should reduce the time needed to process the comsats for launch. There should be a batch of comsats being build for what was to be the next Soyuz launch.

[Zed_Noir]

....
Whether they will ever get money paid towards Soyzu launches is another story. Can't see them ever getting this back given Roscomos financial future isn't looking good.
....

There might be the possibility of getting compensation from the frozen financial assets that Dmitry Rogozin might have aboard. Along with many other Roscosmos creditors.

Hmm, what are the chances that Dmitry Rogozin has stashed money in offshore accounts?

[Robotbeat]

#PressRelease: Hughes Debuts Multi-Transport Satellite-LTE Capability, Unveils Groundbreaking New Flat Panel Antenna Technology for
@OneWeb Service.

https://twitter.com/HughesConnects/status/1506250363011223566

So, if I understand correctly, this antenna can use both satellite AND terrestrial signals, whichever is optimal at the time.

Good answer to the "why not use terrestrial wireless" folks.