Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[DanClemmensen]

Why is Falcon the first assumption?

Vindication for all of us saying Falcon could step in to launch OneWeb. C:

There is still the followons.  This just the immediate ones.

And your point is?  No one has been suggesting SpaceX is the only vehicle provider they'll ever use for the rest of time, just that there seemed to be an *extremely strong case* for ending up on F9 in the near term.

I think that this deal moved OneWeb out of the "never SpaceX" mind set and they will never go back. From now on, SpaceX is a valid choice for OneWeb, and they will make their LV decisions based purely on commercial considerations. Other LVs will now need to compete for OneWeb launches based primarily on commercial considerations.

In fact, OneWeb originally concluded their long-term Soyuz deal in 2015, well before Falcon 9 could have been considered reliable and inexpensive, even if SpaceX and OneWeb had been willing to deal with each other back then.  Outsiders like us cannot know when "never SpaceX" was dropped, since it would have had no effect until Soyuz suddenly disappeared in 2022.

[meekGee]

Why is Falcon the first assumption?

Vindication for all of us saying Falcon could step in to launch OneWeb. C:

There is still the followons.  This just the immediate ones.

Once you go to the dark side, you can't go back...

Who said there isn't irony in space?

[AmigaClone]

Why is Falcon the first assumption?

Vindication for all of us saying Falcon could step in to launch OneWeb. C:

There is still the followons.  This just the immediate ones.

And your point is?  No one has been suggesting SpaceX is the only vehicle provider they'll ever use for the rest of time, just that there seemed to be an *extremely strong case* for ending up on F9 in the near term.

I think that this deal moved OneWeb out of the "never SpaceX" mind set and they will never go back. From now on, SpaceX is a valid choice for OneWeb, and they will make their LV decisions based purely on commercial considerations. Other LVs will now need to compete for OneWeb launches based primarily on commercial considerations.

In fact, OneWeb originally concluded their long-term Soyuz deal in 2015, well before Falcon 9 could have been considered reliable and inexpensive, even if SpaceX and OneWeb had been willing to deal with each other back then.  Outsiders like us cannot know when "never SpaceX" was dropped, since it would have had no effect until Soyuz suddenly disappeared in 2022.

In late 2014 WorldVu Satellites Ltd. (OneWeb's precursor company) was reported to be working closely with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. and its founder Elon Musk, to launch 'internet satellites'.

Obviously something happened which led to Starlink on SpaceX's part and 'never SpaceX' on OneWeb's part. I suspect that there might have been some apologies on both sides, made possible in part by Elon's treatment from Roscosmos.

[DanClemmensen]

In late 2014 WorldVu Satellites Ltd. (OneWeb's precursor company) was reported to be working closely with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. and its founder Elon Musk, to launch 'internet satellites'.

Obviously something happened which led to Starlink on SpaceX's part and 'never SpaceX' on OneWeb's part.

That's putting it mildly. The OneWeb team (name changed about August 2014) had abruptly moved ion late August from borrowed offices within Google to borrowed offices within Tesla HQ in Palo Alto, where they worked as Greg Wyler and ELon shared their visions of an LEO constellation. After about two months, the OneWeb team VERY abruptly moved out of Tesla HQ.

[flyright]

IRC OneWeb had priority rights to spectrum needed by SpaceX and SpaceX agreed to work around OneWeb's satellites so as to not create interference. If this was still the case prior to the SpaceX/OneWeb deal I wonder if part of the deal might be to make OneWeb and SpaceX more of equal players when it comes to use of the spectrum.

[meekGee]

IRC OneWeb had priority rights to spectrum needed by SpaceX and SpaceX agreed to work around OneWeb's satellites so as to not create interference. If this was still the case prior to the SpaceX/OneWeb deal I wonder if part of the deal might be to make OneWeb and SpaceX more of equal players when it comes to use of the spectrum.

Someone speculated along these lines a few weeks ago.  If it happens I don't think it'll be announced explicitly, it'll just happen.

[jongoff]

Once you go to the dark side, you can't go back...

Who said there isn't irony in space?

At the moment, there's nobody else with spare capacity, so they had no choice but to go with SpaceX. By the time they'll be launching their Gen 2 constellation (in 2025 or later, assuming they make it that far), there will hopefully be several more options to chose from. I don't think the downside of relying on a competitor is going to go away as a consideration in their launch choices. Though I do agree that being in a situation this time where they pretty much have to work with SpaceX may lower that barrier a bit, assuming the interaction goes well this time.

~Jon

[meekGee]

Once you go to the dark side, you can't go back...

Who said there isn't irony in space?

At the moment, there's nobody else with spare capacity, so they had no choice but to go with SpaceX. By the time they'll be launching their Gen 2 constellation (in 2025 or later, assuming they make it that far), there will hopefully be several more options to chose from. I don't think the downside of relying on a competitor is going to go away as a consideration in their launch choices. Though I do agree that being in a situation this time where they pretty much have to work with SpaceX may lower that barrier a bit, assuming the interaction goes well this time.

~Jon

Also SpaceX may have agreed to do the urgent launches if OneWeb signs up for at least some subsequent ones as well.

[Zed_Noir]

Once you go to the dark side, you can't go back...

Who said there isn't irony in space?

At the moment, there's nobody else with spare capacity, so they had no choice but to go with SpaceX. By the time they'll be launching their Gen 2 constellation (in 2025 or later, assuming they make it that far), there will hopefully be several more options to chose from. I don't think the downside of relying on a competitor is going to go away as a consideration in their launch choices. Though I do agree that being in a situation this time where they pretty much have to work with SpaceX may lower that barrier a bit, assuming the interaction goes well this time.

~Jon

Also SpaceX may have agreed to do the urgent launches if OneWeb signs up for at least some subsequent ones as well.

OneWeb have to spend wisely. There is only so many times they can ask for bailout before OneWeb become a political embarrassment. They have to launch their gen-2 satcoms as quickly and as cheaply as possible. So that likely mean they will sign most if not all of their launch contracts with the provider that is the least expensive with the most launch opportunities.

[jongoff]

OneWeb have to spend wisely. There is only so many times they can ask for bailout before OneWeb become a political embarrassment. They have to launch their gen-2 satcoms as quickly and as cheaply as possible. So that likely mean they will sign most if not all of their launch contracts with the provider that is the least expensive with the most launch opportunities.

I don't know when they're planning on starting to build/launch their Gen 2 satellites, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking 2025-2027 timeframe. That's far enough in the future, that I think it's premature to speculate on which launch provider will be the best value for OneWeb at that point in time.

~Jon

[jongoff]

Also SpaceX may have agreed to do the urgent launches if OneWeb signs up for at least some subsequent ones as well.

Given that we know almost nothing about the launch contract, that's possible. It's also just as possible that they only signed up for 1 or 2 SpaceX flights, to buy time for something else to come online. I still think that the most likely situation is that they've bought enough flights from SpaceX to finish Gen 1, but I'd be really surprised if they agreed to prebook a bunch of SpaceX flights for Gen 2.

~Jon

[WmThomas]

I'm curious about what will happen with the OneWeb Soyuz contract.

It's been paid for. So OneWeb can't withhold payment for the promised launches.

But Russia banned OneWeb's launches (after Western sanctions were previously imposed). The Western sanctions put the Soyuz launches on hold, but it did not rule out fulfilling the launch contact in future. But the Russian ban closes the possibility of fulfilling the launch.

The Russian action could easily be construed as a breach of contract. And OneWeb may be have recourse there: there's a lot of Russian-government-owned money now basically impounded in the West due to the sanctions. But just as other countries reserves in the West have been targeted to repay debts or penalties from lawsuits, surely OneWeb might well find a court in the West that would give OneWeb compensation out of Russian funds for contract breach by RosKosmos.

Doesn't this sound like possible future course of events?

[M.E.T.]

It seems likely F9 will complete most of the initial constellation, with possibly some going to PSLV.  The 1st gen constellation was supposed to be completed in August, so they don't really have time to wait for the plethora of new launchers that will be starting to roll out soon.

Given how few launches they have left, and the fact that splitting between multiple launches might require different adapters to be designed/analyzed, my guess is they'll just finish Gen 1 on Falcon 9. Back when we discussed this a few weeks back, it was pretty clear that SpaceX is the only option that has spare capacity at the moment. There should be many new launchers coming online this year, or early next year, but at this point OneWeb doesn't have a lot of options.

On the plus side, this means I'll get to see DogTags go up on OneWeb satellites on a Falcon 9. :-)

~Jon

This is ultimately and ironically good news for Neutron etc. OneWeb (the only other currently partially launched megaconstellation besides Starlink, this a substantial source for future cost-sensitive launch demand) stays alive and the business argument for not being reliant on geopolitically risky launch providers gets even stronger.

Even more reason to question the wisdom of SpaceX’s decision here.🤷‍♂️

[Robotbeat]

Also SpaceX may have agreed to do the urgent launches if OneWeb signs up for at least some subsequent ones as well.

Given that we know almost nothing about the launch contract, that's possible. It's also just as possible that they only signed up for 1 or 2 SpaceX flights, to buy time for something else to come online. I still think that the most likely situation is that they've bought enough flights from SpaceX to finish Gen 1, but I'd be really surprised if they agreed to prebook a bunch of SpaceX flights for Gen 2.

~Jon

It actually wouldn't be a terrible idea for them to order a couple token flights from SpaceX for gen2 as it'd give them a very strong bargaining position when they approach Blue Origin (New Glenn/Jarvis), RocketLab (Neutron), Relativity (Terran-R), Stoke Space (whatever their TSTO hydrolox RLV is called), Firefly (Beta or Gamma), maybe Maia from Europe, India, etc.

[Robotbeat]

It seems likely F9 will complete most of the initial constellation, with possibly some going to PSLV.  The 1st gen constellation was supposed to be completed in August, so they don't really have time to wait for the plethora of new launchers that will be starting to roll out soon.

Given how few launches they have left, and the fact that splitting between multiple launches might require different adapters to be designed/analyzed, my guess is they'll just finish Gen 1 on Falcon 9. Back when we discussed this a few weeks back, it was pretty clear that SpaceX is the only option that has spare capacity at the moment. There should be many new launchers coming online this year, or early next year, but at this point OneWeb doesn't have a lot of options.

On the plus side, this means I'll get to see DogTags go up on OneWeb satellites on a Falcon 9. :-)

~Jon

This is ultimately and ironically good news for Neutron etc. OneWeb (the only other currently partially launched megaconstellation besides Starlink, this a substantial source for future cost-sensitive launch demand) stays alive and the business argument for not being reliant on geopolitically risky launch providers gets even stronger.

Even more reason to question the wisdom of SpaceX’s decision here.🤷‍♂️

Why? SpaceX benefits if the overall space market gets bigger.

[M.E.T.]

It seems likely F9 will complete most of the initial constellation, with possibly some going to PSLV.  The 1st gen constellation was supposed to be completed in August, so they don't really have time to wait for the plethora of new launchers that will be starting to roll out soon.

Given how few launches they have left, and the fact that splitting between multiple launches might require different adapters to be designed/analyzed, my guess is they'll just finish Gen 1 on Falcon 9. Back when we discussed this a few weeks back, it was pretty clear that SpaceX is the only option that has spare capacity at the moment. There should be many new launchers coming online this year, or early next year, but at this point OneWeb doesn't have a lot of options.

On the plus side, this means I'll get to see DogTags go up on OneWeb satellites on a Falcon 9. :-)

~Jon

This is ultimately and ironically good news for Neutron etc. OneWeb (the only other currently partially launched megaconstellation besides Starlink, this a substantial source for future cost-sensitive launch demand) stays alive and the business argument for not being reliant on geopolitically risky launch providers gets even stronger.

Even more reason to question the wisdom of SpaceX’s decision here.🤷‍♂️

Why? SpaceX benefits if the overall space market gets bigger.

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

[meekGee]

It seems likely F9 will complete most of the initial constellation, with possibly some going to PSLV.  The 1st gen constellation was supposed to be completed in August, so they don't really have time to wait for the plethora of new launchers that will be starting to roll out soon.

Given how few launches they have left, and the fact that splitting between multiple launches might require different adapters to be designed/analyzed, my guess is they'll just finish Gen 1 on Falcon 9. Back when we discussed this a few weeks back, it was pretty clear that SpaceX is the only option that has spare capacity at the moment. There should be many new launchers coming online this year, or early next year, but at this point OneWeb doesn't have a lot of options.

On the plus side, this means I'll get to see DogTags go up on OneWeb satellites on a Falcon 9. :-)

~Jon

This is ultimately and ironically good news for Neutron etc. OneWeb (the only other currently partially launched megaconstellation besides Starlink, this a substantial source for future cost-sensitive launch demand) stays alive and the business argument for not being reliant on geopolitically risky launch providers gets even stronger.

Even more reason to question the wisdom of SpaceX’s decision here.

Why? SpaceX benefits if the overall space market gets bigger.

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

These are all theoretical scenarios...

SpaceX and Starlink are not the only games in town but they may be the only practical ones, and it's only trending in one direction - the second place players are all stumbling out the gate.

In fact SpaceX doesn't need to box oneWeb into future launches.  They'll come back anyway.
 

[Rondaz]

Roskosmos will launch other satellites on rockets built for OneWeb.

Roskosmos will launch other satellites on six Soyuz rockets built for OneWeb.

03:19 03/22/2022 (updated: 03:58 03/22/2022)

MOSCOW, March 22 - RIA Novosti. Russia will withdraw from the project six Soyuz rockets intended for launching OneWeb satellites, they will be used for launches under the federal program and for other customers, Dmitry Strugovets, head of the Roscosmos press service, told reporters.

"Roscosmos is withdrawing from the OneWeb project six launch vehicles paid for by a foreign customer," Strugovets said.

He specified that Soyuz would be used by the state corporation to provide launches under the federal program, as well as in the interests of other customers.

Russia refused to launch OneWeb satellites after the British government did not want to leave the directors of the company, and the satellite company itself did not give guarantees that the devices would not be used for military purposes.

Roskosmos CEO Dmitry Rogozin said earlier that the satellites of private Russian companies will be launched on the rockets built under OneWeb, and this will be done practically free of charge, since the rockets have already been paid for by a foreign company, and Roscosmos will not transfer them to it. In addition, according to Rogozin, OneWeb will go bankrupt after that.

https://ria.ru/20220322/sputniki-1779368654.html

[Robotbeat]

It seems likely F9 will complete most of the initial constellation, with possibly some going to PSLV.  The 1st gen constellation was supposed to be completed in August, so they don't really have time to wait for the plethora of new launchers that will be starting to roll out soon.

Given how few launches they have left, and the fact that splitting between multiple launches might require different adapters to be designed/analyzed, my guess is they'll just finish Gen 1 on Falcon 9. Back when we discussed this a few weeks back, it was pretty clear that SpaceX is the only option that has spare capacity at the moment. There should be many new launchers coming online this year, or early next year, but at this point OneWeb doesn't have a lot of options.

On the plus side, this means I'll get to see DogTags go up on OneWeb satellites on a Falcon 9. :-)

~Jon

This is ultimately and ironically good news for Neutron etc. OneWeb (the only other currently partially launched megaconstellation besides Starlink, this a substantial source for future cost-sensitive launch demand) stays alive and the business argument for not being reliant on geopolitically risky launch providers gets even stronger.

Even more reason to question the wisdom of SpaceX’s decision here.‍♂️

Why? SpaceX benefits if the overall space market gets bigger.

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

In the first case, if you assume SpaceX just executes much faster than OneWeb so they can turn capital into profit or growth at a much greater rate, then the money they earn from OneWeb can help SpaceX invest more in their own goal faster than the money saved by OneWeb can help expand their constellation.

But overall, it helps SpaceX by growing the whole market. Stabilizing investment in the industry, lowering cost of capital for SpaceX as well as others. Do you want to own 99% of a $100 billion industry or 50% of a $10 trillion dollar industry?

Keep in mind Elon/SpaceX’s long term goal in all of this as well.

SpaceX’s interests are in making humanity a multiplanet species by enabling reusable, cheap space launch. So those interests are advanced by competitors like Neutron.

[LouScheffer]

How exactly does SpaceX gain a net benefit from a future fully operational OneWeb constellation? Or from an operational Neutron rocket?

In many cases, it may be better to be the top dog in a competitive ecosystem than to be the only game in town.  Investors can value your company better if there is more than one data point.  Sub-contractors are more likely to participate in a market if there is more than one buyer.  More people thinking about the problems involved will generate additional ideas, including those you may not have thought of yourself, but can adopt.  You get real-world data on approaches you yourself have not tried.  Competition prevents you from resting on an adequate solution, and not trying risky improvements.  And so on...

Competition can be a pain.  It's also been known to bring out the best in people.  I think Elon has the right perspective here.