Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[Rondaz]

Dmitry Rogozin: “OneWeb is waiting for bankruptcy” Russian counter-sanctions in space will lead to billions in losses for the US and the UK, OneWeb is waiting for bankruptcy. The company will not be able to fully deploy the orbital constellation.

https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1499758028626792450

[Comga]

https://spacenews.com/with-soyuz-off-the-table-oneweb-back-in-the-mix/

“We’re looking at U.S., Japanese and Indian options,” Chris McLaughlin, OneWeb’s chief of government, regulatory affairs and engagement, said March 3.

“But in the first instance, we’re pointing to Ariane and saying you still owe us a number of launches.”

Arianespace spokeswoman Cyrielle Bouju did not respond to requests for comment.

Has Mr McLaughlin gone to the Rogozin School for International Diplomacy?

“We are desperate and you OWE us”?

How about “We are foremost looking to expand our great, established collaboration with ArianeSpace”?

Perhaps Ms Bouju is giving him a chance to rephrase.
Oneweb needs all the cooperation they can get.

[DigitalMan]

Perhaps OneWeb is looking to press ArianeSpace for a large discount. They aren't obligated to award future missions to ArianeSpace, after all, the satellites are produced in Florida and a former CEO's hatred of SpaceX might only go so far with the current leadership.

Other competitors are launching with SpaceX, it isn't like this would be unusual.

[matthewkantar]

https://spacenews.com/with-soyuz-off-the-table-oneweb-back-in-the-mix/

“We’re looking at U.S., Japanese and Indian options,” Chris McLaughlin, OneWeb’s chief of government, regulatory affairs and engagement, said March 3.

“But in the first instance, we’re pointing to Ariane and saying you still owe us a number of launches.”

Arianespace spokeswoman Cyrielle Bouju did not respond to requests for comment.

Has Mr McLaughlin gone to the Rogozin School for International Diplomacy?

“We are desperate and you OWE us”?

How about “We are foremost looking to expand our great, established collaboration with ArianeSpace”?

Perhaps Ms Bouju is giving him a chance to rephrase.
Oneweb needs all the cooperation they can get.

Isn't it literally true that Ariane owes them lunches, ie OneWeb has paid for Ariane for them in part or in full?

[DigitalMan]

Isn't it literally true that Ariane owes them lunches, ie OneWeb has paid for Ariane for them in part or in full?

I suspect it isn't that simple, if someone has more insight into the contract, perhaps they can enlighten us.

[Lars-J]

Isn't it literally true that Ariane owes them lunches, ie OneWeb has paid for Ariane for them in part or in full?

I suspect it isn't that simple, if someone has more insight into the contract, perhaps they can enlighten us.

Hopefully we can get some clarification. Roscosmos claims(?) that they have already paid for 5 more launches this year... and if that is true, that is some epically bad contracts that Oneweb signed. I don't believe that they would be incompetent enough to not have milestone payments instead of paying it all months in advance.

[Asteroza]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/science/russia-oneweb-launch.html


Quote from the article:

Mr. Henry added that launch contracts of this size are typically signed two years in advance.

“OneWeb had anticipated finishing their constellation by August, so that is not going to be possible with a new launch provider,” he said.

Isn't there an ITU constellation completion deadline for spectrum allocation license? Even if they can switch to SpaceX (and incur at least a 1-2 year delay), will they meet that deadline? Because losing spectrum rights would be a death blow. Though they might try to get a deadline extension, but I imagine any incumbents and SpaceX might argue that lack of commercial risk management is not an excuse for a deadline extension...

[niwax]

Isn't it literally true that Ariane owes them lunches, ie OneWeb has paid for Ariane for them in part or in full?

I suspect it isn't that simple, if someone has more insight into the contract, perhaps they can enlighten us.

Hopefully we can get some clarification. Roscosmos claims(?) that they have already paid for 5 more launches this year... and if that is true, that is some epically bad contracts that Oneweb signed. I don't believe that they would be incompetent enough to not have milestone payments instead of paying it all months in advance.

OneWeb is basically made up of bad contracts. They accepted tons of baggage in a desperate bid to raise enough money to survive. Virgin made them sign up for 39 launches in exchange for their investment, until their cancellation fee basically drained the entire investment back out. In the same $500 million round, Ariane made them sign a 21 launch block buy. Consider the negotiating position they must have been in to sign away more than $1 billion in future contracts for $500 million in cash and you can place a bet on whether they got a discount from Ariane or a forgiving payment schedule with the Russians.

Considering their latest round valued them at $3.4 billion, likely less than the replacement value of the constellation alone, they are still firmly in the phase where they are grasping at every straw and have to trade security for a chance at survival.

[jstrotha0975]

OneWeb will survive, the British tax payers will bail them out.

[Zed_Noir]

OneWeb will survive, the British tax payers will bail them out.

Only if Boris Johnson & his government remains in office before and after the next UK general election. One Web will be an easy "budget reduction" target. One Web will be a money sinkhole for a very long time with low quality and low quantity service.

Also One Web have to get their comsats into orbit as soon as possible. Comsats sitting in a clean room is just an accumulating expense. One Web really need benevolence from the folks from Hawthorne to even come close to breaking even by the end of 2020s.

.

[M.E.T.]

OneWeb will survive, the British tax payers will bail them out.

Only if Boris Johnson & his government remains in office before and after the next UK general election. One Web will be an easy "budget reduction" target. One Web will be a money sinkhole for a very long time with low quality and low quantity service.

Also One Web have to get their comsats into orbit as soon as possible. Comsats sitting in a clean room is just an accumulating expense. One Web really need benevolence from the folks from Hawthorne to even come close to breaking even by the end of 2020s.

.

Bringing me back to my earlier point. What benefits Hawthorne more? Additional launch revenue (and goodwill in the general launch market) generated by flying OneWeb’s remaining launches as a priority?

Or OneWeb going bankrupt and Starlink dominating the (much larger) satellite internet market for 5 more years unopposed?

[Robotbeat]

OneWeb isn’t really competitive with Starlink tho. So might as well launch it.

[LouScheffer]

Musk needs to think like a super-villain.  There is no glory in vanquishing a foe who is already severely wounded.  Instead he should extend a hand, allow OneWeb ro regain its health, and THEN crush them in the market.  That way SpaceX owns the reputation, the unopposed market, PLUS profits from all the OneWeb launch fees.  It's a win-win.

[edzieba]

SpaceX have been perfectly happy to launch plenty of other communications satellites (e.g. Orbcomm, Iridium, plenty of GEO birds), no reason whatsoever they'd refuse to launch Oneweb or Kuiper if requested.

Wyler left a legacy of 'but not SpaceX' contracts before being ousted during the bankruptcy buyout. Wyler is no longer at Oneweb, so there is no reason for that to continue. Whether that means going with Flacon 9 depends on what conditions the Soyuz contract via Arianespace contains and whether Oneweb can leverage it to obtain discounted launches on Ariane or Vega. If not, then a launch on Flacon is on the table along with ISRO (which may also offer sweetheart rates now India is involve din Oneweb).

[JayWee]

Question: How long is the delivery time of Ariane/Vega/ISRO ?

[jyoung8607]

Isn't there an ITU constellation completion deadline for spectrum allocation license? Even if they can switch to SpaceX (and incur at least a 1-2 year delay), will they meet that deadline? Because losing spectrum rights would be a death blow. Though they might try to get a deadline extension, but I imagine any incumbents and SpaceX might argue that lack of commercial risk management is not an excuse for a deadline extension...

If needed (I'm not familiar with the current deadline or the applicable ITU process) it seems like there's good cause for an extension. Commercial risk is one thing, technology or supplier challenges, or the always-present "space is hard" single launch anomaly. This is not your typical risk, it's closer to force majeure, and I think everyone involved will understand that. I would think the ITU would be willing to talk, but I don't know.

I can't see SpaceX trying to capitalize on the delay via regulatory channels. It would be an about-face on their entire approach to regulatory issues so far, and given the international situation, public relations suicide. And, Elon is having far too much fun trolling Roscosmos to participate in their attempt to screw OneWeb investors.

I don't know if SpaceX would do the backflips necessary to fit OneWeb in the 2022 manifest, but I have total confidence they'd answer the phone if OneWeb called, and I'd be surprised if that call hasn't already happened.

Other providers have shown much more willingness to game the regulatory process, but I think even they might be put off by the public relations aspect, of what they'd be aiding and abetting, at least for this moment.

[ulm_atms]

Are we really arguing if Elon/SpaceX wants easy money and good PR?  Seriously??

If OneWeb asks, and pays, SpaceX will launch as they can fit them in.  It's basically easy money for them and if SpaceX is REALLY confident in Starlink....super easy money with a load of good PR added in.

Screwing over OneWeb with launches/regulatory BS is a sure fire way to scream to the world "WE ARE NOT SURE OF STARLINK LONGTERM!"  Helping a competitor in a jam however...that oozes confidence.

[nacnud]

OneWeb will survive, the British tax payers will bail them out.

I doubt that, British support is a Boris vanity project, they don't normally end well.

[Kiwi53]

OneWeb will survive, the British tax payers will bail them out.

Actually, maybe the EU taxpayer could bail them out.
The EU wants its own LEO broadband capability, and might be persuaded that a OneWeb owned roughly 1/3 each by UK, EU & Indian interests is close enough to be marketed as an EU capability. Maybe three control centres, one in England, one in India and one in a French overseas territory (French Guiana or Tahiti) would also spread the influence around, too

[alanr74]

Don't forget, France are also involved in OneWeb via Eutelsat.

I can't see the EU getting involved with OneWeb as the UK Government would want to be involved in Galileo, at the moment that seems a non-starter.