Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[M.E.T.]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Sure. SpaceX can accommodate them…first manifest opening mid-2023. For a second launch, no problem - there’s an opening in 2024. But only if they pay the full $62m now, as there is another bidder ready with an offer for that launch slot, just waiting for finance approval to come through.😅

[russianhalo117]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Antares - Probably not going to happen since they are mostly made in Ukraine/Russia
Ariane 5/6 - Should be doable
Japan's H2A probably would work as well

Like the Atlas V, the Ariane 5 and the H2A don't have any un-allocated units left. Arianespace just lost the Galaxy-37 contract due to the lack of launch capacity.

The Ariane 6 might fly near the end of 2022.

Really don't think ISRO can ramp up their launch cadence of their smallish launchers.

IMO. Only benevolence from the folks at Hawthorne can One Web finish Constellation deployment on schedule and at a reasonable cost.

What about the Chinese? They launch as many LV as SpaceX.

ITAR et al prohibits that option and several other launch options. Note that OneWeb has already made its arrangements beforehand for this situation for their entire first generation constellation. Russia was already known to not be an option for Gen2 because of Sanctions that Gen1 was exempted from.

Seems to me Falcon is the obvious best choice.  Funding a competitor ought to be a minor issue given how small the launch contract would be compared to the values of the companies.  SpaceX would probably make a tidy profit at the per-satellite price OneWeb was paying for Soyuz, so it'd be a win-win.

How come nobody mentioned Vega-C?

Vega-C would only be best for individuals ground spares. The dispenser system and payloads can only fit in an Ariane-4/Soyuz-2.1x family 81KC sized PLF at minimum for batch launches which is their preference in the Gen 1 launch plan. Larger the diameter PLF the more Payloads per ring and launch. For mega constellations the larger and more capable the launcher the better.

[DreamyPickle]

OneWeb's already arranged card pack of backup launch options have been pulled off the shelf, dusted off, the seal broken and deck placed on the table to be put in play.

Soyuz rockets in the shadow of war

Very useful information from the article:

According to industry sources, OneWeb had already paid for all the Soyuz rockets assigned for the delivery of first-generation satellites for the constellation, therefore a potential ban on transfer of funds to Russia was not expected to impact the active contract between Paris-based Arianespace and the Russian space industry. To derail the operation, the yet-to-be-imposed sanctions would have to ban the actual launches, but the European Union had indicated that it would not prohibit "space services," an industry source told RussianSpaceWeb.com on February 23, (or hours before Russia had launched its latest assault on Ukraine).

ISRO seems by far the best option considering OneWeb's ties to India. Do we know what the obstacles would be?

[daedalus1]

I've written to my MP (British cabinet) asking about putting Oneweb onto other launchers.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

OneWeb's already arranged card pack of backup launch options have been pulled off the shelf, dusted off, the seal broken and deck placed on the table to be put in play.

Soyuz rockets in the shadow of war

Very useful information from the article:

According to industry sources, OneWeb had already paid for all the Soyuz rockets assigned for the delivery of first-generation satellites for the constellation, therefore a potential ban on transfer of funds to Russia was not expected to impact the active contract between Paris-based Arianespace and the Russian space industry. To derail the operation, the yet-to-be-imposed sanctions would have to ban the actual launches, but the European Union had indicated that it would not prohibit "space services," an industry source told RussianSpaceWeb.com on February 23, (or hours before Russia had launched its latest assault on Ukraine).

ISRO seems by far the best option considering OneWeb's ties to India. Do we know what the obstacles would be?

Neither the PSLV (1.75 tonnes to SSO) nor the original GSLV (5 tonnes to LEO, probably non-polar) are close to the lifting capability of the Soyuz to the required orbit (~5.5 tonnes to 475 km altitude, 87.4 deg. inclination), and I think OneWeb has 5 more planned after the March 4th one at this moment. The GSLV Mk III (8 tonnes LEO) fits but I don't think ISRO has the capability to churn out 5 new LVs within a year right now.

[GWR64]

OneWeb's already arranged card pack of backup launch options have been pulled off the shelf, dusted off, the seal broken and deck placed on the table to be put in play.

Soyuz rockets in the shadow of war

Very useful information from the article:

According to industry sources, OneWeb had already paid for all the Soyuz rockets assigned for the delivery of first-generation satellites for the constellation, therefore a potential ban on transfer of funds to Russia was not expected to impact the active contract between Paris-based Arianespace and the Russian space industry. To derail the operation, the yet-to-be-imposed sanctions would have to ban the actual launches, but the European Union had indicated that it would not prohibit "space services," an industry source told RussianSpaceWeb.com on February 23, (or hours before Russia had launched its latest assault on Ukraine).

ISRO seems by far the best option considering OneWeb's ties to India. Do we know what the obstacles would be?

Neither the PSLV (1.75 tonnes to SSO) nor the original GSLV (5 tonnes to LEO, probably non-polar) are close to the lifting capability of the Soyuz to the required orbit (~5.5 tonnes to 475 km altitude, 87.4 deg. inclination), and I think OneWeb has 5 more planned after the March 4th one at this moment. The GSLV Mk III (8 tonnes LEO) fits but I don't think ISRO has the capability to churn out 5 new LVs within a year right now.

Has the GSLV (Mk. II, III) upper stage an attitude control for several hours and can perform small maneuvers?
How the Fregat does it,  to deploy the satellites in groups of 4.
I think it has not yet been demonstrated.

[GWR64]

.@OneWeb & launch provider @Arianespace look to UK (OneWeb HQ), France (Arianespace home), Brussels (EU) & US (OneWeb sats built in Florida): Will new US/Euro sanctions affect the 5 remaining Gen 1 launches, all from Russian-run Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan?

Hmm, aren't OneWeb sats transported to Baikonur by Ukraininan Antonov?

Airplanes are from an ukrainian builder, but their airline company is Volga-Dnepr, which is russian.

Probably soon the ukrainian AN-124 will also be in russian hands.
This is off topic here, but definitely relevant for many other satellites.
 

https://air-cosmos.com/article/ukraine-la-russie-va-mettre-la-main-sur-le-parc-d-antonov-an-124-28589

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post to the most relevant thread?

The "previous management" had "anybody but SpaceX" as a major requirement for the launch provider. Trust me on this. Even at that, at LV vendor selection time in 2015, F9 was not the obvious choice it is today.

Wrong again

Then, if anyone knows, and can say, why did OneWeb choose to sole-source all of the initial constellation launches to Arianspace and Starsem (Soyuz-2 and Ariane 62)?

[russianhalo117]

Cross-post to the most relevant thread?

The "previous management" had "anybody but SpaceX" as a major requirement for the launch provider. Trust me on this. Even at that, at LV vendor selection time in 2015, F9 was not the obvious choice it is today.

Wrong again

Then, if anyone knows, and can say, why did OneWeb choose to sole-source all of the initial constellation launches to Arianspace and Starsem (Soyuz-2 and Ariane 62)?

Check your forum messages.

[Rondaz]

The general assembly is completed, we are getting ready for removal

At Baikonur, the general assembly of the space rocket as part of the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle and commercial vehicles has been completed. A meeting of the commission is scheduled for tomorrow on readiness to take the rocket to the launch complex.

General assembly completed, preparing for rollout 

At the Baikonur, the Soyuz-2.1b space rocket general assembly has been completed for the upcoming commercial launch.

A meeting of the Commission is planned tomorrow to clear the rocket for rollout to the launch pad.

https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1498308615781953536

[Rondaz]

From a source, good point about the upcoming One Web launch: it's actually better from a *tech transfer concerns* (ITAR etc) point of view to launch the sats than to try and get them back out of Russian hands. And no further money will change hands. Seems a reasonable way to go..

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1498348193603543046

[Robotbeat]

It’s remarkable to me that people thought it’s a good idea from an export control standpoint to launch these satellites on Russian rockets from Russian-controlled territory.

If there’s anything export controlled on there, you’d be purely relying on “goodwill.” Zero hope for physical control of those satellites once they’re in Baikonur.

(Kourou is also potentially difficult, given the presence of Russian personnel, but that could be mitigated…)

[Nomadd]

It’s remarkable to me that people thought it’s a good idea from an export control standpoint to launch these satellites on Russian rockets from Russian-controlled territory.

If there’s anything export controlled on there, you’d be purely relying on “goodwill.” Zero hope for physical control of those satellites once they’re in Baikonur.

(Kourou is also potentially difficult, given the presence of Russian personnel, but that could be mitigated…)

You'd hope the Russians won't want to be remembered as "Send us your gear. Maybe we'll launch it or maybe we'll steal it."

[Robotbeat]

Good point. Guaranteed way to destroy their commercial launch business for decades.

[Rondaz]

The Commission at the Baikonur Cosmodrome cleared the Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket for rollout and installation at the launch pad on March 2.

This will be the first commercial launch from Baikonur this year. The launch is scheduled for March 4 at 22:41 UTC..

https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1498635697292517377

[MikeAtkinson]

I've written to my MP (British cabinet) asking about putting Oneweb onto other launchers.

So have I

[daedalus1]

I've written to my MP (British cabinet) asking about putting Oneweb onto other launchers.

So have I

Unusually I haven't had a reply yet. I presume they are very busy just now.

[JayWee]

https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1498661114338492422

[jstrotha0975]

Ariane 6 would be the perfect launch vehicle for Oneweb. Too bad it isn't ready yet. Why not switch to GSLV MKIII interim?

[Zed_Noir]

Ariane 6 would be the perfect launch vehicle for Oneweb. Too bad it isn't ready yet. Why not switch to GSLV MKIII interim?

As mention up thread. ISRO is not likely be able to ramp up the launch cadence of their smallish launchers to deployed the One Web constellation in a timely and cost effective manner. Never mind the many institutional ISRO launches that is already in the queue.