Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[Nomadd]

 

If a certain batch of satellites haven’t been sent to Russia or one of its vassal states, yet, the UK could find other options. There’s be NRE involved, but I do believe OneWeb had already signed an agreement with Ariane to launch some satellites, right?

Or even some US launcher. OneWeb used to have an agreement with Virgin Orbit. Could even launch on F9 maybe?

If the US government really wants aggressive sanctions to stick, they might help the UK figure something out.

The things I'm wondering are:

1- Is OneWeb even effected by the current round of sanctions? From what I was reading, so far the sanctions are pretty targeted, so may not impact OneWeb launches. Though, to be fair, who knows what Russia's next moves are, and what further sanctions will hit down the road.
2- If these flights are mostly paid for, would preventing OneWeb from launching on Soyuz actually punish Russia, or hand them a bunch of money? If OneWeb has to back out after already paying most of the cost of a launch, and Russia doesn't have to pay that back (I doubt they have a "we'll give you a full refund if your country sanctions us" clause in their contract), and can now resell that vehicle to someone else, wouldn't that actually be helping Russia financially a lot more than having them finish the launch? If the real goal is to punish Russia for what it's doing in Ukraine, I'm not sure that canceling the OneWeb flights once Russia has been paid most of the cost of the launches actually achieves that goal...
3- Agreed though that I really hope OneWeb has been thinking through backup plans here, whether that's shifting launches to India or alternative European or US launch providers.
~Jon

It will probably be a good thing if Ariane 6 keeps to schedule.

[JayWee]

If a certain batch of satellites haven’t been sent to Russia or one of its vassal states, yet, the UK could find other options. There’s be NRE involved, but I do believe OneWeb had already signed an agreement with Ariane to launch some satellites, right?

Or even some US launcher. OneWeb used to have an agreement with Virgin Orbit. Could even launch on F9 maybe?

If the US government really wants aggressive sanctions to stick, they might help the UK figure something out.

The things I'm wondering are:

1- Is OneWeb even effected by the current round of sanctions? From what I was reading, so far the sanctions are pretty targeted, so may not impact OneWeb launches. Though, to be fair, who knows what Russia's next moves are, and what further sanctions will hit down the road.
2- If these flights are mostly paid for, would preventing OneWeb from launching on Soyuz actually punish Russia, or hand them a bunch of money? If OneWeb has to back out after already paying most of the cost of a launch, and Russia doesn't have to pay that back (I doubt they have a "we'll give you a full refund if your country sanctions us" clause in their contract), and can now resell that vehicle to someone else, wouldn't that actually be helping Russia financially a lot more than having them finish the launch? If the real goal is to punish Russia for what it's doing in Ukraine, I'm not sure that canceling the OneWeb flights once Russia has been paid most of the cost of the launches actually achieves that goal...
3- Agreed though that I really hope OneWeb has been thinking through backup plans here, whether that's shifting launches to India or alternative European or US launch providers.

~Jon

Good summary, I'd add:
4 - In the worst case - It's possible Russia could refuse to launch it.

[jongoff]

If a certain batch of satellites haven’t been sent to Russia or one of its vassal states, yet, the UK could find other options. There’s be NRE involved, but I do believe OneWeb had already signed an agreement with Ariane to launch some satellites, right?

Or even some US launcher. OneWeb used to have an agreement with Virgin Orbit. Could even launch on F9 maybe?

If the US government really wants aggressive sanctions to stick, they might help the UK figure something out.

The things I'm wondering are:

1- Is OneWeb even effected by the current round of sanctions? From what I was reading, so far the sanctions are pretty targeted, so may not impact OneWeb launches. Though, to be fair, who knows what Russia's next moves are, and what further sanctions will hit down the road.
2- If these flights are mostly paid for, would preventing OneWeb from launching on Soyuz actually punish Russia, or hand them a bunch of money? If OneWeb has to back out after already paying most of the cost of a launch, and Russia doesn't have to pay that back (I doubt they have a "we'll give you a full refund if your country sanctions us" clause in their contract), and can now resell that vehicle to someone else, wouldn't that actually be helping Russia financially a lot more than having them finish the launch? If the real goal is to punish Russia for what it's doing in Ukraine, I'm not sure that canceling the OneWeb flights once Russia has been paid most of the cost of the launches actually achieves that goal...
3- Agreed though that I really hope OneWeb has been thinking through backup plans here, whether that's shifting launches to India or alternative European or US launch providers.

~Jon

Good summary, I'd add:
4 - In the worst case - It's possible Russia could refuse to launch it.

Agreed. The risk of counter-sanctions is a serious one. Frankly it's probably the bigger worry for OneWeb. Russia knows OneWeb isn't likely going to be a repeat customer, and they've gotten most of the money for these launches already, so backing out doesn't cost them very much...

Here's to hoping that by some miracle cooler heads prevail, and Russia somehow backs away from the precipice of war. I just wish I had more hope that that wasn't a pipedream.

~Jon

[Rondaz]

We are pleased to confirm that we have signed a distribution partnership agreement with @eclipsefr.
 
Eclipse will offer low-latency airtime services to government aircraft across Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

https://twitter.com/OneWeb/status/1496787987404931073

[Rondaz]

.@OneWeb & launch provider @Arianespace look to UK (OneWeb HQ), France (Arianespace home), Brussels (EU) & US (OneWeb sats built in Florida): Will new US/Euro sanctions affect the 5 remaining Gen 1 launches, all from Russian-run Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan?

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1496792769267908612

[Rondaz]

A space warhead for OneWeb was assembled at Baikonur

24.02.2022 15:20

On February 24, 2022, at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, the assembly of the head part of the OneWeb spacecraft, the Fregat upper stage and the nose fairing was completed. The work was attended by specialists from the TsENKI branch - the Yuzhny Space Center, the Scientific and Production Association named after S. A. Lavochkin and the Progress Rocket and Space Center (the enterprises are part of the Roscosmos State Corporation).

All docking operations took place in the assembly and test building of site No. 112 of the Baikonur Cosmodrome. On a bunch of 36 spacecraft with an upper stage, the wings of the head fairing were installed, after which the final operations were carried out by Roscosmos specialists. The next stage of preparation for launch is transportation to the technical complex of site No. 31 for general assembly with the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle.

The launch of the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle is scheduled for March 5, 2022 at 01:41:02 Moscow time. OneWeb's new spacecraft will be launched into an orbit at a height of 450 km, after which they will independently be launched into an orbit at a height of 1200 km. To date, Russian rockets of the Soyuz-2 family have launched 428 OneWeb satellites into orbit.

https://www.roscosmos.ru/34243/

[Rondaz]

At Baikonur, the assembly of the head part as part of the #OneWeb spacecraft , the Fregat upper stage and the nose fairing was completed. Fairing flaps were installed on a bunch of 36 vehicles with an upper stage, after which the final operations were carried out. Start - March 5..

https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1496823161375137792

[JayWee]

.@OneWeb & launch provider @Arianespace look to UK (OneWeb HQ), France (Arianespace home), Brussels (EU) & US (OneWeb sats built in Florida): Will new US/Euro sanctions affect the 5 remaining Gen 1 launches, all from Russian-run Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan?

Hmm, aren't OneWeb sats transported to Baikonur by Ukraininan Antonov?

[Bean Kenobi]

.@OneWeb & launch provider @Arianespace look to UK (OneWeb HQ), France (Arianespace home), Brussels (EU) & US (OneWeb sats built in Florida): Will new US/Euro sanctions affect the 5 remaining Gen 1 launches, all from Russian-run Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan?

Hmm, aren't OneWeb sats transported to Baikonur by Ukraininan Antonov?

Airplanes are from an ukrainian builder, but their airline company is Volga-Dnepr, which is russian.

[JayWee]

.@OneWeb & launch provider @Arianespace look to UK (OneWeb HQ), France (Arianespace home), Brussels (EU) & US (OneWeb sats built in Florida): Will new US/Euro sanctions affect the 5 remaining Gen 1 launches, all from Russian-run Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan?

Hmm, aren't OneWeb sats transported to Baikonur by Ukraininan Antonov?

Airplanes are from an ukrainian builder, but their airline company is Volga-Dnepr, which is russian.

Ah, thank you.

[Kaputnik]

Apologies if already discussed, but what would OneWeb on GSLV look like? The only cost numbers I could find sound competitive enough but I don't know what vehicle availability or lead time would be, or any technical considerations.

[RedLineTrain]

.@OneWeb & launch provider @Arianespace look to UK (OneWeb HQ), France (Arianespace home), Brussels (EU) & US (OneWeb sats built in Florida): Will new US/Euro sanctions affect the 5 remaining Gen 1 launches, all from Russian-run Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan?

Hmm, aren't OneWeb sats transported to Baikonur by Ukraininan Antonov?

Airplanes are from an ukrainian builder, but their airline company is Volga-Dnepr, which is russian.

And inasmuch as the satellites are not already on the ground in Kazakhstan, it may be more difficult to get approval to export them from the US.

[jongoff]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

[cpushack]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Antares - Probably not going to happen since they are mostly made in Ukraine/Russia
Ariane 5/6 - Should be doable
Japan's H2A probably would work as well

[Kaputnik]

It would appear that PSLV and GSLV are already planned:

https://m.economictimes.com/tech/tech-bytes/oneweb-partners-with-isro-to-launch-satellites-using-gslv-mkiii-pslv/articleshow/86930945.cms

[Zed_Noir]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Antares - Probably not going to happen since they are mostly made in Ukraine/Russia
Ariane 5/6 - Should be doable
Japan's H2A probably would work as well

Like the Atlas V, the Ariane 5 and the H2A don't have any un-allocated units left. Arianespace just lost the Galaxy-37 contract due to the lack of launch capacity.

The Ariane 6 might fly near the end of 2022.

Really don't think ISRO can ramp up their launch cadence of their smallish launchers.

IMO. Only benevolence from the folks at Hawthorne can One Web finish Constellation deployment on schedule and at a reasonable cost.

[russianhalo117]

OneWeb's already arranged card pack of backup launch options have been pulled off the shelf, dusted off, the seal broken and deck placed on the table to be put in play.

Soyuz rockets in the shadow of war

[DanClemmensen]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Antares - Probably not going to happen since they are mostly made in Ukraine/Russia
Ariane 5/6 - Should be doable
Japan's H2A probably would work as well

Like the Atlas V, the Ariane 5 and the H2A don't have any un-allocated units left. Arianespace just lost the Galaxy-37 contract due to the lack of launch capacity.

The Ariane 6 might fly near the end of 2022.

Really don't think ISRO can ramp up their launch cadence of their smallish launchers.

IMO. Only benevolence from the folks at Hawthorne can One Web finish Constellation deployment on schedule and at a reasonable cost.

What about the Chinese? They launch as many LV as SpaceX.

[russianhalo117]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Antares - Probably not going to happen since they are mostly made in Ukraine/Russia
Ariane 5/6 - Should be doable
Japan's H2A probably would work as well

Like the Atlas V, the Ariane 5 and the H2A don't have any un-allocated units left. Arianespace just lost the Galaxy-37 contract due to the lack of launch capacity.

The Ariane 6 might fly near the end of 2022.

Really don't think ISRO can ramp up their launch cadence of their smallish launchers.

IMO. Only benevolence from the folks at Hawthorne can One Web finish Constellation deployment on schedule and at a reasonable cost.

What about the Chinese? They launch as many LV as SpaceX.

ITAR et al prohibits that option and several other launch options. Note that OneWeb has already made its arrangements beforehand for this situation for their entire first generation constellation. Russia was already known to not be an option for Gen2 because of Sanctions that Gen1 was exempted from.

[Exastro]

Given what's happened over the last 24hrs... I really hope OneWeb is seriously working on alternatives to Soyuz for their last few Gen 1 launches. They might get away with doing the one coming up in a week or two, but I just have a hard time imagining all six of them going off as planned at this point.

What are their backup options?

1- ISRO -- probably the best bet for OneWeb given their ties with India, but there are a lot of questions about what changes they'd need to do to the launch adapters, how fast that can move, and how fast ISRO could ramp up launch rate?
2- SpaceX? -- Funding a competitor, and how much priority would SpaceX give them for slipping things into their manifest?
3- ULA isn't really an option, aren't all the Atlas V's spoken for, and Vulcan behind schedule.
4- Rocket Lab and VO can only really loft one or two at a time, at a price per sat that isn't really competitive with Soyuz.
5- ABL/Relativity/Firefly could in theory loft satellites at a more competitive $/sat rate (pretty close to Soyuz), but none of them are flying yet. (ABL does have a deal with LM to do a bunch of launches out of the UK once they're up and running, but still need to get to flight)

Just spitballing,

~Jon

Antares - Probably not going to happen since they are mostly made in Ukraine/Russia
Ariane 5/6 - Should be doable
Japan's H2A probably would work as well

Like the Atlas V, the Ariane 5 and the H2A don't have any un-allocated units left. Arianespace just lost the Galaxy-37 contract due to the lack of launch capacity.

The Ariane 6 might fly near the end of 2022.

Really don't think ISRO can ramp up their launch cadence of their smallish launchers.

IMO. Only benevolence from the folks at Hawthorne can One Web finish Constellation deployment on schedule and at a reasonable cost.

What about the Chinese? They launch as many LV as SpaceX.

ITAR et al prohibits that option and several other launch options. Note that OneWeb has already made its arrangements beforehand for this situation for their entire first generation constellation. Russia was already known to not be an option for Gen2 because of Sanctions that Gen1 was exempted from.

Seems to me Falcon is the obvious best choice.  Funding a competitor ought to be a minor issue given how small the launch contract would be compared to the values of the companies.  SpaceX would probably make a tidy profit at the per-satellite price OneWeb was paying for Soyuz, so it'd be a win-win.

How come nobody mentioned Vega-C?