Eutelsat OneWeb: Constellation - General Thread

[Oli]

That suggests OneWeb's launch contract would have had a significant influence on SpaceX' decision to do Starlink or not, which I find a bit silly. The contract was signed in 2015, back then SpaceX had a huge backlog and reliability issues.

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. SpaceX's decision to part ways with OneWeb and do a rival constellation was probably based on seeing how potentially lucrative it was, and probably had little to do with the launch purchase. Oneweb's precursor, Google, and SpaceX were working a lot closer prior to the breakup than just Oneweb's precursor shopping around for launch providers. At least that's my understanding.

~Jon

I misunderstood. I thought you were referring to the fact that OneWeb didn't choose SpaceX as the launch provider.

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN launch schedule, updated September 21, lists the first Soyuz-from-Kourou launch as OneWeb 1, delayed from late 2018 to February 2019, with VS designation removed.  (It was previously listed as VS21.)

[ZachF]

Wondering if the latest Soyuz mishap is going to impact OneWeb.

Soyuz has had 3 failures out of 38 launches in the last three years, It's now starting to enter the realm of Proton as far as reliability goes

A rise in insurance rates could add hundreds and hundreds of millions more dollars to this project, and push it or Soyuz into unviability.

[gongora]

OneWeb:
https://ria.ru/science/20181010/1530316990.html

English version
https://sputniknews.com/science/201810101068745626-russia-oneweb-satellite-launch-soyuz/

Also in 2019, around the end of summer or the beginning of fall, a series of launches of OneWeb satellites from Baikonur cosmodrome will begin, according to the source. A total of 10 launches of Soyuz-2.1b carrier rockets with Fregat-M upper stages are planned, with 34-36 satellites being sent to space each time. The launches will be completed by the second quarter of 2020.

After that, a series of six launches from the Vostochny cosmodrome is expected to be held in the second and third quarters of 2020.

Another launch in 2019 and three launches in 2020 are also preliminarily scheduled for the Kourou spaceport, the source added.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/greg_wyler/status/1050823136311238657

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/PeterGuggenbach/status/1051980289252216832

[king1999]

Formal CEO Eric Béranger leaves OneWeb a month after demotion
https://spacenews.com/eric-beranger-leaves-oneweb-a-month-after-demotion/

[TrevorMonty]

Oneweb may not be allowed to use Soyuz for their satellite launches.



"Now, just months before the planned maiden launch, it appears that the Federal Security Service (FSB) may put a stop to it entirely.

The daily newspaper Kommersant reported on November 13 that the FSB, Russia's primary security and intelligence agency, has serious misgivings about the micro-satellite venture. Citing unnamed government officials, the paper said the FSB feared that having an Internet provider whose signals would be transmitted via satellite would keep the agency from being able to filter and monitor Internet traffic."

www.rferl.org/a/russia-fsb-oneweb-satellite-internet-venture-spying-soyuz/29607225.html

May not be a bad thing for Oneweb as they can now move these launches to NG which should work out cheaper. Does mean delays as NG will have usual new LV delays.

[envy887]

Oneweb may not be allowed to use Soyuz for their satellite launches.



"Now, just months before the planned maiden launch, it appears that the Federal Security Service (FSB) may put a stop to it entirely.

The daily newspaper Kommersant reported on November 13 that the FSB, Russia's primary security and intelligence agency, has serious misgivings about the micro-satellite venture. Citing unnamed government officials, the paper said the FSB feared that having an Internet provider whose signals would be transmitted via satellite would keep the agency from being able to filter and monitor Internet traffic."

www.rferl.org/a/russia-fsb-oneweb-satellite-internet-venture-spying-soyuz/29607225.html

May not be a bad thing for Oneweb as they can now move these launches to NG which should work out cheaper. Does mean delays as NG will have usual new LV delays.

Anyone know if that could put Ariane on the hook for a full refund of any payments made to date?

[ZachF]

Oneweb may not be allowed to use Soyuz for their satellite launches.



"Now, just months before the planned maiden launch, it appears that the Federal Security Service (FSB) may put a stop to it entirely.

The daily newspaper Kommersant reported on November 13 that the FSB, Russia's primary security and intelligence agency, has serious misgivings about the micro-satellite venture. Citing unnamed government officials, the paper said the FSB feared that having an Internet provider whose signals would be transmitted via satellite would keep the agency from being able to filter and monitor Internet traffic."

www.rferl.org/a/russia-fsb-oneweb-satellite-internet-venture-spying-soyuz/29607225.html

May not be a bad thing for Oneweb as they can now move these launches to NG which should work out cheaper. Does mean delays as NG will have usual new LV delays.

That sounds like a great way for Russia to scare off any future commercial customers it may have left...

Also, it's not necessarily good for OneWeb because they may have to now borrow more to cover the interest payments for the debt they have over the length of the delay, and those increased payments could be more (probably are) than the cost delta from Soyuz to NG. Also the delay in actual revenue as well.

[gosnold]

The daily newspaper Kommersant reported on November 13 that the FSB, Russia's primary security and intelligence agency, has serious misgivings about the micro-satellite venture. Citing unnamed government officials, the paper said the FSB feared that having an Internet provider whose signals would be transmitted via satellite would keep the agency from being able to filter and monitor Internet traffic."

This has nothing to do with launching on Soyuz. A launch on Ariane would still pose the same problem to the FSB. So unless they are completely crazy, the newspaper misreported what it was told.

[RedLineTrain]

It seems unlikely that Russia would turn down the launch business.  But Russia getting the launch contract may have been contingent on Russia providing a Russian operating license.

OneWeb may have a lot of complicated deals.

[Craftyatom]

The daily newspaper Kommersant reported on November 13 that the FSB, Russia's primary security and intelligence agency, has serious misgivings about the micro-satellite venture. Citing unnamed government officials, the paper said the FSB feared that having an Internet provider whose signals would be transmitted via satellite would keep the agency from being able to filter and monitor Internet traffic."

This has nothing to do with launching on Soyuz. A launch on Ariane would still pose the same problem to the FSB. So unless they are completely crazy, the newspaper misreported what it was told.

True, the FSB should target OneWeb's landing rights, not their launch.  Besides, does Russia even have veto power on Arianespace launches?  Sure, from a technical perspective, they can prevent the launch from happening, but from a contractual point of view, I'm not sure they have that power.

Russia getting the launch contract may have been contingent on Russia providing a Russian operating license.

I did wonder whether they might've made that kind of deal.  Sounds stupid, but stranger things have happened.

Anyways, I hope Russia doesn't deny OneWeb landing rights, but it's perfectly possible, as far as I know.

[su27k]

True, the FSB should target OneWeb's landing rights, not their launch. 

Or FSB has bigger ambition than just listening on to traffic to/from Russia, remember the recent news about Google traffic being redirected to Russian/China.

Besides, does Russia even have veto power on Arianespace launches?  Sure, from a technical perspective, they can prevent the launch from happening, but from a contractual point of view, I'm not sure they have that power.

That assumes all launches are contracted via Arianespace. I think most OneWeb launches will be from Baikonur and Vostochny, can Arianespace even sell launches from Russian launch sites?

[russianhalo117]

True, the FSB should target OneWeb's landing rights, not their launch. 

Or FSB has bigger ambition than just listening on to traffic to/from Russia, remember the recent news about Google traffic being redirected to Russian/China.

Besides, does Russia even have veto power on Arianespace launches?  Sure, from a technical perspective, they can prevent the launch from happening, but from a contractual point of view, I'm not sure they have that power.

That assumes all launches are contracted via Arianespace. I think most OneWeb launches will be from Baikonur and Vostochny, can Arianespace even sell launches from Russian launch sites?

The Launches are contracted via Starsem (a JV now owned by ArianeGroup, Arianespace, ROSCOSMOS (via subsidiary Glavkosmos) and RKTs-Progress at all Soyuz launch sites.

[Asteroza]

If they have to bail out of all Soyuz launches, will they have demo sats and constellation minimums up in time to met FCC license limitations regarding start dates? Things will go bad if they don't meet those dates. If shifting to NG, while they make it in time considering NG hasn't even launched yet? The alternatives would be paying a premium to bump queue and ride on another launcher (A6, or any of the small sat launchers like Virgin and Rocketlab, or god forbid Falcon 9...)

[TrevorMonty]

If they have to bail out of all Soyuz launches, will they have demo sats and constellation minimums up in time to met FCC license limitations regarding start dates? Things will go bad if they don't meet those dates. If shifting to NG, while they make it in time considering NG hasn't even launched yet? The alternatives would be paying a premium to bump queue and ride on another launcher (A6, or any of the small sat launchers like Virgin and Rocketlab, or god forbid Falcon 9...)

Too heavy for Electron.

[envy887]

If they have to bail out of all Soyuz launches, will they have demo sats and constellation minimums up in time to met FCC license limitations regarding start dates? Things will go bad if they don't meet those dates. If shifting to NG, while they make it in time considering NG hasn't even launched yet? The alternatives would be paying a premium to bump queue and ride on another launcher (A6, or any of the small sat launchers like Virgin and Rocketlab, or god forbid Falcon 9...)

Too heavy for Electron.

Electron is listed as 150 kg to SSO, while OneWebs are 145 kg. It might not fit in the fairing though.

[jongoff]

If they have to bail out of all Soyuz launches, will they have demo sats and constellation minimums up in time to met FCC license limitations regarding start dates? Things will go bad if they don't meet those dates. If shifting to NG, while they make it in time considering NG hasn't even launched yet? The alternatives would be paying a premium to bump queue and ride on another launcher (A6, or any of the small sat launchers like Virgin and Rocketlab, or god forbid Falcon 9...)

They already have contracts with Virgin for a certain number of gap-filler flights, and LauncherOne is finally getting close to first flight, but yeah that would be a sucky delay. Fortunately, I kind of doubt Russia is really stupid enough to try and block $1B worth of launches like this, but we'll see.

~Jon

[jongoff]

If they have to bail out of all Soyuz launches, will they have demo sats and constellation minimums up in time to met FCC license limitations regarding start dates? Things will go bad if they don't meet those dates. If shifting to NG, while they make it in time considering NG hasn't even launched yet? The alternatives would be paying a premium to bump queue and ride on another launcher (A6, or any of the small sat launchers like Virgin and Rocketlab, or god forbid Falcon 9...)

Too heavy for Electron.

Electron is listed as 150 kg to SSO, while OneWebs are 145 kg. It might not fit in the fairing though.

The payload to polar should be a bit better than for SSO, but the fairing dimensions is a legit question... But as I said above, they already have a contract for like 39 LauncherOne flights, so if that becomes available soon, they might be able to use a few of those. Most likely I expect this to be a misunderstanding that gets sorted out relatively quickly.

~Jon