Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 213031 times)

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #680 on: 10/05/2018 07:15 PM »
Not sure if anyone has seen this yet. Significant update to the flight plan schedules.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/10/04/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-4/

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): August 2019
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): January 2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): June 2019
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Offline covenant007

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #681 on: 10/06/2018 09:40 AM »
Not sure if anyone has seen this yet. Significant update to the flight plan schedules.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/10/04/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-4/

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): August 2019
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): January 2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): June 2019

saw it....wasn't happy about it.

 ;)

I also looked for different articles to explain the delay.  Some stating SpaceX/Boeing are delaying, some stating "NASA is pushing [launches] out"....would like to know real reason. 

SpaceX has indicated that they are ready for a Nov/Dec launch.  Boeing is playing a bit of catch up due to their engine leak issue from earlier in the year.  It has been stated on occasion (also by the review panel) that one major delay right now is all of the certification paperwork that NASA has to get through.  Hans sort of alluded to it at the space conference earlier this month.  If that's the real issue, I just wish folks would own up to their issues rather than vaguely pointing fingers in the other direction via ambiguous word choice in publicly released statements. 

It is frustrating to be so close only to see thing continually slip out....30 days....60 days....6 months.  They are now targeting NET NEXT December for the post certification missions to the ISS. 

Sorry....frustrated rant over.....just want to see the us move forward to the next chapter.



Offline testguy

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #682 on: 10/06/2018 12:35 PM »
Not sure if anyone has seen this yet. Significant update to the flight plan schedules.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/10/04/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-4/

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): August 2019
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): January 2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): June 2019

saw it....wasn't happy about it.

 ;)

I also looked for different articles to explain the delay.  Some stating SpaceX/Boeing are delaying, some stating "NASA is pushing [launches] out"....would like to know real reason. 

SpaceX has indicated that they are ready for a Nov/Dec launch.  Boeing is playing a bit of catch up due to their engine leak issue from earlier in the year.  It has been stated on occasion (also by the review panel) that one major delay right now is all of the certification paperwork that NASA has to get through.  Hans sort of alluded to it at the space conference earlier this month.  If that's the real issue, I just wish folks would own up to their issues rather than vaguely pointing fingers in the other direction via ambiguous word choice in publicly released statements. 

It is frustrating to be so close only to see thing continually slip out....30 days....60 days....6 months.  They are now targeting NET NEXT December for the post certification missions to the ISS. 

Sorry....frustrated rant over.....just want to see the us move forward to the next chapter.

By the time these are finally approved and released for flight we will all have quantum computing laptops at home.  Then the flights will be delayed so they can certify new computer hardware and software for flight.  Agree with your rant.  It is hard to believe any schedule for BEO based on government contracting.

BTW, your and my rant on this topic will probably be deleted just as mine have been in the past.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2018 04:40 PM by testguy »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #683 on: 10/07/2018 05:00 AM »
{snip}
It is frustrating to be so close only to see thing continually slip out....30 days....60 days....6 months.  They are now targeting NET NEXT December for the post certification missions to the ISS. 

Sorry....frustrated rant over.....just want to see the us move forward to the next chapter.


If this is anything like the development of the Falcon launch vehicles then 1 month before launch SpaceX will slip by 1 month. Only then do you have a valid launch date.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #684 on: 10/07/2018 06:53 AM »
Didn't GAO whack NASA for slow milestone approvals, longer than the contracted periods?
DM

Offline brainbit

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #685 on: 10/07/2018 12:36 PM »
It appeared to me that SpaceX had the hardware in place in August but the political pause button was pressed for 3 months, it appears to of been pressed again,
edit/gongora: trimmed conspiracy theories
« Last Edit: 10/08/2018 01:12 AM by gongora »

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #686 on: 10/07/2018 12:53 PM »
It appeared to me that SpaceX had the hardware in place in August but the political pause button was pressed for 3 months, it appears to of been pressed again,

They didn't have all the hardware ready in August.
« Last Edit: 10/08/2018 01:12 AM by gongora »

Offline brainbit

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #687 on: 10/07/2018 01:26 PM »
They had the crew access arm ready to fit but where waiting till after the test flight, however as soon as the pause button was pressed they immediately fitted the crew access arm. I read this as the hardware was ready.

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #688 on: 10/07/2018 01:56 PM »
It appeared to me that SpaceX had the hardware in place in August but the political pause button was pressed for 3 months, ...

That's a common narrative, but one not supported by the facts.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1047428050772811777

While Hans Königsmann is concerned about a possible paperwork delay, he is saying that the hardware may be in place by the end of they year, not that it has been ready since August.

Do we even know if the Dragon trunk for DM-1 has arrived at the Cape?

Offline brainbit

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #689 on: 10/07/2018 02:55 PM »
The pictures of the dragon capsule doing its final vibration testing at the beginning of August showed it mounted on a trunk, with the caption tests completed packing up to ship to the cap. It would make sense to test both the capsule and the trunk for launch vibration together, and ship them together. 

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #690 on: 10/07/2018 03:09 PM »
The pictures of the dragon capsule doing its final vibration testing at the beginning of August showed it mounted on a trunk, with the caption tests completed packing up to ship to the cap. It would make sense to test both the capsule and the trunk for launch vibration together, and ship them together.

The trunk wasn't complete at the time, and the hardware wasn't going to the Cape after that picture was taken.  The capsule was sent to Ohio for more testing before going to the Cape.  As of the August 27 NAC meeting the trunk was still in Hawthorne for solar array installation.  As kdhilliard pointed out above, Hans gave a talk this week and he did not say the hardware is ready now.

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #691 on: 10/07/2018 03:26 PM »
The conjecture about hardware readiness is indefinite and unknowable, what could have been ready when.
We will never know what is or was waiting on what.
There is more status over in L2.
However NASA is adamant about not releasing corroborating material so we will have to take the latest projection as read.
We will see if the pattern of two months delay after three months repeats.
There is nothing to disputed cynicism but no point in it.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2018 04:40 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #692 on: 10/07/2018 04:05 PM »
Moved a couple posts to the Dragon 2 Discussion thead:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46136.0

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #693 on: 10/11/2018 09:41 AM »
Really glad crew are safe after today's Soyuz failure.

I expect Soyuz to be grounded for a while so CC schedule is going to be 'interesting' now. NASA won't cut any corners but I wonder if there are any further opportunities to speed up the necessary paperwork?

Edit to add:

I understand current ISS crew may need to come back by end of this year due to limits on Soyuz capsule time in space? If so, then ISS is empty so can CC test flights happen with no-one on ISS?
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 10:09 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #694 on: 10/11/2018 11:59 AM »
Really glad crew are safe after today's Soyuz failure.

I expect Soyuz to be grounded for a while so CC schedule is going to be 'interesting' now. NASA won't cut any corners but I wonder if there are any further opportunities to speed up the necessary paperwork?

Edit to add:

I understand current ISS crew may need to come back by end of this year due to limits on Soyuz capsule time in space? If so, then ISS is empty so can CC test flights happen with no-one on ISS?

No, there needs to be a crew on ISS for DM-1 to proceed as planned.

Offline Nightstalker89

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #695 on: 10/11/2018 12:11 PM »
The easy answer here is that the the Russians could just launched an empty soyuz to the space station as a lifeboat. Without a crew at risk the benefits to keep the ISS manned would be high. They would just extend the current crews missions

Offline brainbit

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #696 on: 10/11/2018 02:21 PM »
I am also glad the crew are safe. It will take time to realize the full implication of this failure. As IIS is now, the last 2 astronauts will have to return by end January. Without any crew on ISS, there can be no commercial crew uncrewed test flights.
This was a very serious failure and it is unlikely Russia will be back in business in under a half year at best. It is only just conceivable that Dragon2 can make its DM1 flight before the ISS is abandoned. Forget about resupply flights they wont be needed, and after January there will be no one there to handle them. The other possible problem is that the soyuz up there may have some other sabotage and wont be safe to return on. There is an awful lot to do for both NASA and Russia before January, I do hope all works out well. Interesting times.       

Offline dglow

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #697 on: 10/11/2018 03:44 PM »
I am also glad the crew are safe. It will take time to realize the full implication of this failure. As IIS is now, the last 2 astronauts will have to return by end January. Without any crew on ISS, there can be no commercial crew uncrewed test flights.
This was a very serious failure and it is unlikely Russia will be back in business in under a half year at best. It is only just conceivable that Dragon2 can make its DM1 flight before the ISS is abandoned. Forget about resupply flights they wont be needed, and after January there will be no one there to handle them. The other possible problem is that the soyuz up there may have some other sabotage and wont be safe to return on. There is an awful lot to do for both NASA and Russia before January, I do hope all works out well. Interesting times.       

Well, good to see the glass is half-full.

I'll bet ISS does not go unmanned as Roscosmos works through this failure. What will be interesting is whether DM-1 is treated as a manpower burden and delayed, or as a potential safety asset and flown.

The shame is that we've been flying without a backup for so long. Commercial Crew's development schedule could have, and should have, been treated with greater urgency.

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #698 on: 10/11/2018 03:48 PM »
ASAP meeting intro - current published Commercial Crew schedule probably isn't achievable

Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #699 on: 10/11/2018 03:49 PM »
ASAP meeting intro - current published Commercial Crew schedule probably isn't achievable
Oh goodie, this should be fun.