Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 129725 times)

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #420 on: 10/09/2017 10:26 PM »
Yes and no. There are 6 months to fix the capsule. The parts sent up on a later mission. If the capsule cannot be repaired a replacement can be sent to the spacestation.

Considering that the probability of sustaining an MMOD strike is directly proportional to the time on orbit, it's more to the point that it's FAR more likely to sustain a strike while docked than during the relatively brief time between launch and docking.  Unless an approach inspection is going to reveal something that would rule out docking, it doesn't seem to add a lot of value.

The docking port could have been damaged. That may prevent docking.

A few more anti-satellite missile tests and the capsules may have to fly though a debris cloud.

An inspection of the outside of the capsule a couple of days before departure may be reassuring. Keeping the strike detection avionics and loss of pressure detectors operating whilst docked may be useful.

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I'm also struggling to think of any component that could be repaired on orbit in that timeframe.  Unlike station, the commercial crew vehicles are not being designed with on-orbit (EVA or EVR) repair in mind.

The Space Shuttles were not designed for on-orbit repair but a method of patching holes in the skin of Shuttles was devised. A similar patch may work with the airframe/skin and windows of capsules.

A strike on a capsule could damage one or more of the external solar panels, radiators, aerials, sensors, rocket nozzles, side of the docking port, windows or airframe. The aerials can probably be replaced.

edit:grammar + add nozzles
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 10:36 PM by A_M_Swallow »

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #421 on: 10/12/2017 07:55 PM »
The docking port could have been damaged. That may prevent docking.

This is about the only really meaningful use case I can envision of a pre-docking inspection.  That said, the relatively small vulnerable area and the short exposure time makes this situation quite a bit more unlikely than other LOM scenarios.

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A few more anti-satellite missile tests and the capsules may have to fly though a debris cloud.

This is a red herring. Those debris clouds would have tracked objects in them.  If the rendezvous trajectory goes through a potential conjunction with a tracked object, the vehicle wouldn't be launched in the first place.

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An inspection of the outside of the capsule a couple of days before departure may be reassuring. Keeping the strike detection avionics and loss of pressure detectors operating whilst docked may be useful.

There are no strike detection avionics.  An inspection of the outside of the vehicle pre-departure would identify damage to reentry TPS that could wave-off undocking.

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The Space Shuttles were not designed for on-orbit repair but a method of patching holes in the skin of Shuttles was devised. A similar patch may work with the airframe/skin and windows of capsules.

These were ad hoc methods that are not easily transferred to new vehicle designs.  None of the new vehicles are designed to be EVA compatible.  There are no translation aids, and the TPS on the outer mold line likely would never be able to satisfy EVA kick load requirements.

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A strike on a capsule could damage one or more of the external solar panels, radiators, aerials, sensors, rocket nozzles, side of the docking port, windows or airframe. The aerials can probably be replaced.

All of these things are being analyzed on an ongoing basis and feed into the Loss of Crew/Loss of Mission numbers.  Many of these aren't as consequential as you imply, and on-orbit replacement isn't in the concept of operations.

Offline deruch

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #422 on: 10/20/2017 04:57 AM »
SpaceX and Boeing Milestones from NAC yestesday. Taken from Eric Bergers twitter feed.

Full presentations from yesterday and today should be uploaded at below address within a few days:

https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/nac-heoc
The link for the July 2017 NAC HEO meetings' Commercial Crew presentation is pointing to the wrong pdf.  I'm linking the correct slides found through some google-fu.
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Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #423 on: 11/16/2017 09:04 AM »
Quote
Shotwell: still planning to carry out commercial crew test flights (uncrewed and crewed) in 2018.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/931088878395674624

Online rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #424 on: 12/28/2017 03:18 AM »
From this Spaceflight101.com article:

Quote
Also set for 2018 is the debut of SpaceX’s crewed Dragon spacecraft, set for an uncrewed demonstration mission to the International Space Station in the second half of the year, to be followed by a two-week crewed mission (likely in early 2019 per current ISS planning schedules).

Any word on the reasons the slip?

Offline AntiAnti

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #425 on: 12/31/2017 09:05 AM »
CCDev lastest schedule:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): April 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): August 2018

ISS schedule:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): NET August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): Q1 2019
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): second half of 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): early 2019

Boe-CFT slip to 2019 was expected: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/11/boeing-starliner-trio-test-flights/

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #426 on: 01/06/2018 11:32 PM »
From this Spaceflight101.com article:

Quote
Also set for 2018 is the debut of SpaceX’s crewed Dragon spacecraft, set for an uncrewed demonstration mission to the International Space Station in the second half of the year, to be followed by a two-week crewed mission (likely in early 2019 per current ISS planning schedules).

Any word on the reasons the slip?
That word "likely" is in there, which means it's not yet a slip to 2019.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #427 on: 01/06/2018 11:32 PM »
CCDev lastest schedule:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): April 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): August 2018

ISS schedule:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): NET August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): Q1 2019
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): second half of 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): early 2019

Boe-CFT slip to 2019 was expected: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/11/boeing-starliner-trio-test-flights/
Source? The spaceflight 101 doesn't say for sure.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #428 on: 01/10/2018 06:12 PM »
Subcommittee on Space Hearing - An Update on NASA Commercial Crew Systems Development
Date: Wednesday, January 17, 2018 - 10:00am
Location: 2318 Rayburn House Office Building

Witnesses:

Mr. William Gerstenmaier, associate administrator, Human Exploration and Operations Directorate, NASA
Mr. John Mulholland, vice president and program manager, Commercial Programs, Boeing Space Exploration
Dr. Hans Koenigsmann, vice president, Build and Flight Reliability, SpaceX
Ms. Cristina Chaplain, director, Acquisition and Sourcing Management, U.S. Government Accountability Office
Dr. Patricia Sanders, chair, NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #429 on: 01/11/2018 01:53 PM »
Quote
NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Test Flight Dates

The next generation of American spacecraft and rockets that will launch astronauts to the International Space Station are nearing the final stages of development and evaluation. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program will return human spaceflight launches to U.S. soil, providing reliable and cost-effective access to low-Earth orbit on systems that meet our safety and mission requirements. To meet NASA’s requirements, the commercial providers must demonstrate that their systems are ready to begin regular flights to the space station. Two of those demonstrations are uncrewed flight tests, known as Orbital Flight Test for Boeing, and Demonstration Mission 1 for SpaceX. After the uncrewed flight tests, both companies will execute a flight test with crew prior to being certified by NASA for crew rotation missions. The following schedule reflects the most recent publicly releasable dates for both providers.

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018

Author Anna HeineyPosted on January 11, 2018

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/01/11/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-2/
« Last Edit: 01/11/2018 01:53 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #430 on: 01/11/2018 02:53 PM »
That's quite disappointing, of course, but the real question is what's the reason for the huge SpaceX delay and why they're now lagging behind Boing. I mean, everybody expected that SpaceX will be the first to conduct test flights.

Could it still be rocket/prop loading concerns?

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #431 on: 01/11/2018 06:41 PM »
That's quite disappointing, of course, but the real question is what's the reason for the huge SpaceX delay and why they're now lagging behind Boing. I mean, everybody expected that SpaceX will be the first to conduct test flights.

Could it still be rocket/prop loading concerns?
Don't worry. Boeing is close to announcing its own delay. Their Crew Flight Test will be shifting into 2019 within the next few months.

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #432 on: 01/11/2018 08:51 PM »
can SpaceX (if ready earlier) tell NASA they are ready and ask to go sooner?
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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #433 on: 01/11/2018 09:19 PM »
can SpaceX (if ready earlier) tell NASA they are ready and ask to go sooner?

Pretty sure that the power dynamic here (and it's far from technical, very political) assumes that NASA tells SpaceX when they are ready to go. SpaceX can probably request some sort of review, but I doubt they have an ability to assert that they are "ready" with any real consequences.
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Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #434 on: 01/11/2018 09:26 PM »
SpaceX still has plenty of work to do getting both Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 certified for human flight.

Online rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #435 on: 01/11/2018 09:27 PM »
Who goes first is a little longterm importance. I expect Dragon 2 will fly more crew (both for NASA and commercial) due to the lower cost of the vehicle and rocket in the next 5-6 years.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #436 on: 01/11/2018 09:56 PM »
can SpaceX (if ready earlier) tell NASA they are ready and ask to go sooner?

Pretty sure that the power dynamic here (and it's far from technical, very political) assumes that NASA tells SpaceX when they are ready to go. SpaceX can probably request some sort of review, but I doubt they have an ability to assert that they are "ready" with any real consequences.

I interpreted the question from Lar as being whether if SpaceX were to hit their internal milestones earlier than planned, if NASA would be able to do their oversight tasks earlier too?

In other words, once the slip to the right is announced is NASA still able to move their schedule of events back to the left? Or now that August 2018 has been announced for the non-crew flight, nothing earlier can be supported?
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #437 on: 01/11/2018 10:57 PM »
SpaceX still has plenty of work to do getting both Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 certified for human flight.

SpaceX may be able to take off when they want to but they need permission to dock with the ISS. If the Dragon 2 test docking is anything like the first Dragon 1 test berthing then the spacecraft will have to go through several days of safety flights.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #438 on: 01/12/2018 12:26 AM »
NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Test Flight Dates:

Quote from: NASA blog
Targeted Test Flight Dates:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/01/11/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-2/
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 12:27 AM by yg1968 »

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #439 on: 01/12/2018 12:35 AM »
NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel Releases 2017 Annual Report
Quote
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), an advisory committee that reports to NASA and Congress, has issued its 2017 annual report examining NASA's safety performance over the past year and highlighting accomplishments, issues and concerns to agency and government officials.

The report, released Thursday, is based on the panel's 2017 fact-finding and quarterly public meetings; "insight" visits and meetings; direct observations of NASA operations and decision-making processes; discussions with NASA management, employees and contractors; and the panel members' own experience.

“It is clear to the panel that NASA is at a critical juncture in human spaceflight development and that this is a time to retain focus on program details; to maintain a sense of urgency while not giving in to schedule pressure and to continue with program plans without neglecting, shortchanging, or deleting program content essential to safety and mission assurance,” said ASAP Chair Patricia Sanders.

The 2017 report highlights activities of the past year, and includes assessments of the agency’s:

Exploration Systems Development
Commercial Crew Program
Deep space exploration
International Space Station operations
Aeronautics missions and air operations, and
Enterprise protection
The report reiterates the need for constancy of purpose as NASA is on the verge of realizing the results of years of work and extensive resource investment.

Congress established the panel in 1968 to provide advice and make recommendations to the NASA administrator on safety matters after the 1967 Apollo 1 fire that claimed the lives of three American astronauts.

For more information about the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, and to view the 2017 report, visit:
http://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap

(found via a Tweet from Marcia Smith)
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 01:08 AM by gongora »

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