Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis

[QuantumG]

This thread is for updates and analysis of the CCtCap (and remaining CCiCap) milestones schedule. Please constrain discussion to analysis and updates.

Starting with this schedule I have compiled this list of outstanding milestones.

2015 Jun
Boeing Phase II Safety Review - Safety Technical Review Board 80%
SpaceX Avionics Test Bed Activation

2015 Jul
Boeing Qualification Test Vehicle Production Readiness Review

2015 Aug

2015 Sep
Boeing Structural Test Article Test Readiness Review
Boeing CST-100 Checkout & Control System (Activation / Validation) Test Complete

2015 Oct
Boeing Qualification Test Vehicle Integrated Readiness Review
SpaceX Docking System Qualification Test Complete

2015 Nov
Boeing Flight Software Demo.
SpaceX Launch Site Operational Readiness Review

2015 Dec
Boeing Orbital Flight Test Configuration Performance & Weight Status Report
SpaceX Delta Critical Design Review
SpaceX Propulsive Land & Initial Propulsion Module Landing Test Complete Test Complete

2016 Jan

2016 Feb
Boeing Mission Control Center Int. Sims. System Acceptance Review

2016 Mar

2016 Apr
Boeing Qualification Test Vehicle Test Readiness Review

2016 May

2016 Jun
Boeing Int. Parachute System Drop Tests 1 & 2 Comp.
SpaceX Launch Site Operational Readiness Review for Crew

2016 Jul
SpaceX Environmental Control & Life Support System Integrated Test Complete

2016 Aug

2016 Sep
SpaceX Flight Test w/o Crew Certification Review
SpaceX DM-1 Parachute Qualification Review
SpaceX Space Suit Qual Test Complete

2016 Oct

2016 Nov
Boeing ISS Design Certification Review
Boeing Orbital Flight Test Flight Operations Review
Boeing Spacecraft Servicing Operational Readiness Review

2016 Dec
Boeing Service Module Hot Fire Launch Abort Test Complete
SpaceX Flight to ISS w/o Crew (DM-1)

2017 Jan
SpaceX Design Certification Review
SpaceX Parachute Qual Test Complete

2017 Feb
Boeing Pad Abort Test Complete

2017 Mar
Boeing Orbital Flight Test Flight Test Readiness Review
SpaceX Flight Test Readiness Review

2017 Apr
Boeing Orbital Flight Test
SpaceX Flight to ISS w/Crew (DM-2)

2017 May
Boeing Crewed Flight Test Design Certification Review

2017 Jun

2017 Jul
Boeing Crewed Flight Test Flight Test Readiness Review
Boeing Crewed Flight Test
SpaceX Operational Readiness Review

2017 Aug

2017 Sep
Boeing Operational Readiness Review

2017 Oct
Boeing Certification Review
SpaceX Certification Review

Unfortunately I don't have a public source for the milestone payments for CCtCap milestones. If I could add those, I could show how much this changes with the kind of budget Congress apparently intends to supply to the program indefinitely.

[Jcc]

Has the SpaceX milestone 2  Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete April 2015 been officially accepted by NASA? Should be done because the used it for the pad abort.

[mkent]

First, an acronym list for the opening post, listed in order of occurrence:

STRB   Safety Technical Review Board
QTV    Qualification Test Vehicle
PRR    Production Readiness Review
STA    Structural Test Article
TRR    Test Readiness Review
CCCS   CST-100 Checkout & Control System (Activation / Validation)
IRR    Integrated Readiness Review
FSW    Flight SoftWare
ORR    Operational Readiness Review
OFT    Orbital Flight Test
CPWSR  Configuration Performance & Weight Status Report
CDR    Critical Design Review
MCC    Mission Control Center
SAR    System Acceptance Review
ECLSS  Environmental Control & Life Support System
CR     Certification Review
PQR    Parachute Qualification Review
ISS    International Space Station
DCR    Design Certification Review
FOR    Flight Operations Review
SM     Service Module
PAT    Pad Abort Test
FTRR   Flight Test Readiness Review
CFT    Crewed Flight Test

[Lar]

MKent, that's a great list! Thanks!

QuantumG, would you consider folding it into the header and or expanding all the items with their acronym expansions?

[QuantumG]

Done

[mkent]

For analysis....

The milestones through Sept 2015 should have money already allocated to them from the FY-15 Appropriations Act.  They should be unaffected by the recent budget controversy.

If we take the remaining 34 milestones and divide them equally into the $2.4 billion NASA plans to spend on Commercial Crew for FY-16 and FY-17 (not a great assumption), we get an average cost to NASA of about $70 million / milestone.

The $900 million recommended by the Senate would thus take us roughly through the July 2016 milestones (SpaceX ECLSS Integrated Test Complete).  A similar level for FY-17 would take us through the Flight Test Readiness Reviews in March 2017.  It would then take about another $600 million in FY-18 to certify both vehicles.

This is a very rough analysis.  More thoughts:

1) The development funding required for Boeing and SpaceX is different.  By my estimates, Boeing requires $1.97 billion in CCtCap funding (including FY-15 funds already appropriated), while Space requires only $1.050 billion similarly.  Thus Boeing is getting $1.88 for every SpaceX dollar.

2) Boeing and SpaceX have differing numbers of milestones.  Boeing has 18 milestones after FY-15 while SpaceX has 16.

If we take into account both items above, we have two equations & two unknowns.

18B + 16S = $2.4 billion
18B = 1.88 * 16S

Thus, Boeing averages $87 million / milestone while SpaceX averages $52 million.

Interestingly, that doesn’t change the above cutoffs much if the milestones are paid off in order.

Add in some additional overhead, and $900 million / year would yield only a one-year slip in post-certification readiness (three years instead of two).

[Jcc]

Do all the milestones carry equal dollar value? Doesn't seem like they should.

[QuantumG]

Do all the milestones carry equal dollar value? Doesn't seem like they should.

I don't think it's unreasonable for me to reveal that they don't. Still trying to find a public list of payments. Kinda ridiculous that this information isn't available to everyone.

[mkent]

Do all the milestones carry equal dollar value? Doesn't seem like they should.

Almost certainly not.  But without anything else to go on, what else can you do?

[gongora]

Has the SpaceX milestone 2  Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete April 2015 been officially accepted by NASA? Should be done because the used it for the pad abort.

Pad abort tested the launch abort engines (SuperDraco), not the sets of thrusters that will be used in orbit (Draco).

[Coastal Ron]

Do all the milestones carry equal dollar value? Doesn't seem like they should.

I don't think it's unreasonable for me to reveal that they don't. Still trying to find a public list of payments. Kinda ridiculous that this information isn't available to everyone.

I know for the COTS program when the GAO did an audit of it they identified the specific payment amounts for each milestone.  Maybe we'll have to wait for the GAO to audit CCtCap to see that information?

[darkenfast]

"2017 Jan
SpaceX Design Certification Review
SpaceX Parachute Qual Test Complete"

What is the purpose of the Parachute Qual Test?  They did the test off Morro Bay, the Pad Abort Test, and presumably, they will do the Max-Q Abort Test, all of which used (or will use), the system which will fly on the manned spacecraft.

[The Amazing Catstronaut]

"2017 Jan
SpaceX Design Certification Review
SpaceX Parachute Qual Test Complete"

What is the purpose of the Parachute Qual Test?  They did the test off Morro Bay, the Pad Abort Test, and presumably, they will do the Max-Q Abort Test, all of which used (or will use), the system which will fly on the manned spacecraft.

Maybe they'll test firing the parachutes at the most suboptimal deployment environment they can think of?

Edit: Okay, question answered! Thank you, QuantumG. 

[QuantumG]

See https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/SpaceX-CCtCap-Contract.pdf

SpaceX will conduct a series of tests on the parachute system in nominal and off-
nominal configurations, enveloping conditions for abort and nominal entry scenarios. As described
in DRD 108 Verification and Validation Plan, these tests will demonstrate that the design and build
of the Crew Dragon parachute system meets the intent of Section 4 of JSC-65985, Requirements for
Human Spaceflight for the Trailing Deployable Aerodynamic Decelerator (TDAD) System.
Complete human-rating of the parachute system will leverage these tests along with additional
analysis, inspection and lessons learned from the pad and in-flight abort tests conducted during
CCiCap. The Parachute Qualification milestone will be completed after the Flight to ISS without
Crew milestone because the latter does not require this level of human-rating for a flight without
crew, and any in-flight observations from that test flight can be used to inform the test plan for
parachute qualification.

The Dragon parachute system is critical to the safety of crew members during all missions. Its
purpose is to stabilize and decelerate the vehicle to an appropriate descent rate for a safe land
landing for all mission cases. The system must not only decelerate the Dragon from the extreme
velocities of orbital entry, but must also be able to quickly establish aerodynamic control of the
vehicle for aborted launches, the strictest of these scenarios being an emergency event at the launch
pad. The parachutes make up a sophisticated system subject to many failure modes both known and
unknown, high and potentially uncertain loads, and a wide range of initial conditions. As such,
multiple tests in a full scale and flight-like configuration are required to demonstrate and observe
aspects such as redundancy effectiveness, performance dispersions, and structural integrity.

[Jcc]

Has the SpaceX milestone 2  Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete April 2015 been officially accepted by NASA? Should be done because the used it for the pad abort.

Pad abort tested the launch abort engines (SuperDraco), not the sets of thrusters that will be used in orbit (Draco).

So is that a "no"? I see the purpose of this thread as to track the completion of milestones against schedule.

[JasonAW3]

Has the SpaceX milestone 2  Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete April 2015 been officially accepted by NASA? Should be done because the used it for the pad abort.

Pad abort tested the launch abort engines (SuperDraco), not the sets of thrusters that will be used in orbit (Draco).

The Draco engines are the primary maneuvering thrusters for the current generation of Dragon.  As it stands, I'd have to say that they've pretty much been fully tested by now.

[Kansan52]

Checking to see if I got this wrong.

My understanding was the Super Dracos would replace the Dracos. That was the reason for SDs super throttleable ability, to produce the proper thrust for manuevers.

[JBF]

Checking to see if I got this wrong.

My understanding was the Super Dracos would replace the Dracos. That was the reason for SDs super throttleable ability, to produce the proper thrust for manuevers.

No the SDs entire purpose is abort and landing maneuvers. 

[the_other_Doug]

Has the SpaceX milestone 2  Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete April 2015 been officially accepted by NASA? Should be done because the used it for the pad abort.

Pad abort tested the launch abort engines (SuperDraco), not the sets of thrusters that will be used in orbit (Draco).

The Draco engines are the primary maneuvering thrusters for the current generation of Dragon.  As it stands, I'd have to say that they've pretty much been fully tested by now.

Yep, the engines have been tested on cargo Dragon.  The control system will be at least somewhat different on crew Dragon.  For one thing, it will have to have "manual" control options, which don't exist in the current system.  Ain't no hand controllers in the cargo Dragon, after all.

The proper function of the Dracos has to be tested in the context of the flight control system that will be used in crew Dragon.  Yeah, the engines fire -- but will they fire when commanded, exactly as commanded, by the FCS?  That's more what the Draco milestone is talking about, I'm sure.

[AnalogMan]

Has the SpaceX milestone 2  Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete April 2015 been officially accepted by NASA? Should be done because the used it for the pad abort.

Pad abort tested the launch abort engines (SuperDraco), not the sets of thrusters that will be used in orbit (Draco).

The Draco engines are the primary maneuvering thrusters for the current generation of Dragon.  As it stands, I'd have to say that they've pretty much been fully tested by now.

Yep, the engines have been tested on cargo Dragon.  The control system will be at least somewhat different on crew Dragon.  For one thing, it will have to have "manual" control options, which don't exist in the current system.  Ain't no hand controllers in the cargo Dragon, after all.

The proper function of the Dracos has to be tested in the context of the flight control system that will be used in crew Dragon.  Yeah, the engines fire -- but will they fire when commanded, exactly as commanded, by the FCS?  That's more what the Draco milestone is talking about, I'm sure.

If its any help, here are the contract acceptance criteria for this milestone (the full milestone details are heavily redacted).

Design Certification Review (DCR) Interim Payment Milestone
Initial Propulsion Module Testing Complete
[…]

Acceptance Criteria:

(a) Demonstrate a high-altitude abort profile requiring both SuperDraco and Draco firings with abort bottles.
(b) Demonstrate representative rendezvous and docking thruster firing sequences.
(c) Demonstrate a propulsive-assisted landing thrust profile using SuperDraco engines with Draco thrusters for roll control.
(d) Obtain data for FDIR threshold determination.
(e) Test results satisfy primary test plan objectives and support the certification plan, or a process is in place to disposition any open items.
(f) Quick-look test report delivered to NASA within 10 days of test completion.

[Note: FDIR = Fault Detection, Isolation and Recovery]