Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 407988 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #840 on: 10/11/2019 04:23 am »
twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1182420846582714368

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Interesting that, after some vagueness at the Bridenstine-Musk event about commercial crew schedules, to have NASA’s Steve Stich at #ISPCS2019 talking about putting crews in orbit in the “next 6 to 8 months.”

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1182425658753867776

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Both Stich and Boeing’s John Mulholland mentioned in their #ISPCS2019 panel that the Starliner crewed flight could take place in the first quarter of 2020, assuming pad abort and uncrewed test flights go as planned.

Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #841 on: 10/11/2019 02:22 pm »
Given that Bridenstene and Musk agreed that if everything goes according to plan DM2 could fly in Q1 2020, I really don't understand what "vagueness" Foust is alluding to here.  This seems extremely similar in messaging.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #842 on: 11/14/2019 06:24 pm »
https://twitter.com/emspeck/status/1195058685770375169

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OIG on Commercial Crew: "Final vehicle certification
for both contractors (Boeing and SpaceX) will likely be delayed at least until summer 2020"

Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #843 on: 11/14/2019 07:58 pm »
Quote
OIG on Commercial Crew: "Final vehicle certification
for both contractors (Boeing and SpaceX) will likely be delayed at least until summer 2020"
"Final" certification requires successful completion of the crewed demo flight and subsequent certification for regular operation, yes?  Assuming that's the case, this seems a bit like a water is wet observation...

Offline Hog

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #844 on: 11/15/2019 12:21 am »
Summer 2020

Watching Atlantis land on July 21 2011, I'd have never guessed that it would take Americans AT LEAST 9 years to load humans aboard a capsule and send them to ISS.

Disappointing.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #845 on: 11/15/2019 02:37 am »
Summer 2020

Watching Atlantis land on July 21 2011, I'd have never guessed that it would take Americans AT LEAST 9 years to load humans aboard a capsule and send them to ISS.

Disappointing.

More like 15 years...

Shuttle replacement started in 2004 under Sean O'Keefe.

Ares I / Orion was announced in 2005 under Mike Griffin.

SpaceX's COTS-D option was revealed in 2006.

$150M of allocated funding for COTS-D was redirected in 2009 by Chris Scolese.

CCDev 1 was awarded in 2010 (a mere $50M, to 5 winners) under Charles Bolden.

CCDev 2 was awarded in 2011 ($270M to 4 winners).

CCiCap was awarded in 2012 ($1113M to 3 winners).

CPC phase 1 was awarded in 2012 (an additional $30M to the same 3 winners).

Contracts for the actual flights were awarded in 2014.

The last 5 years have been weird too.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #846 on: 11/15/2019 03:00 am »
Summer 2020

Watching Atlantis land on July 21 2011, I'd have never guessed that it would take Americans AT LEAST 9 years to load humans aboard a capsule and send them to ISS.

Disappointing.

More like 15 years...

Shuttle replacement started in 2004 under Sean O'Keefe.

Ares I / Orion was announced in 2005 under Mike Griffin.

If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #847 on: 11/15/2019 03:04 am »
If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

I started in 2004 because that's when President George W. Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle and directed NASA to work on a replacement.


Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #848 on: 11/15/2019 06:34 am »
If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

I started in 2004 because that's when President George W. Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle and directed NASA to work on a replacement.

Correct. But no money went into CCP until it became clear that CxP was going to be axed. That was 2010.
The first six years of efforts to replace the shuttle (CxP) were a completely lost cause, mostly thanks to a guy named Griffin.

And it took another two years until NASA got really serious about CCP and started investing some serious money (2012). Courtesy of NASA being busy retiring the shuttle and cleaning up the mess left by CxP.

And then it took another four years before US Congress finally stopped short-funding CCP. Courtesy of the usual suspects seeing CCP as a threat to their pet projects Orion and SLS.

Next did CCP enter the phase were all the technological hurdles rear their ugly *sses. Courtesy of over-confident contractors.

So yeah, it's been a 16-year rollercoaster-ride (so far) of political stupidity, NASA stupidity and contractors being over-confident.

In other words: every single major mistake that could be made was actually made. Murphy at its very best.
« Last Edit: 11/15/2019 10:39 am by woods170 »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #849 on: 11/21/2019 11:06 am »
https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1197473451570798592

Quote
At a rollout event at the Kennedy Space Center ahead of Starliner’s first uncrewed test flight, Boeing’s John Mulholland says says teams are readying the second Starliner spacecraft for its first crewed mission “in the middle of next year.”

Offline Ike17055

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #850 on: 11/22/2019 06:34 pm »
If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

I started in 2004 because that's when President George W. Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle and directed NASA to work on a replacement.

While this may be stretching it a bit, one could make the case that it "started" immediately following the February 2003 loss of Columbia, when the replacement vehicle need became starkly apparent, and more specifically, when Astronaut John Young, just a few weeks later, wrote an article calling for NASA to develop a capsule based on a 5% larger version of Apollo with upgraded avionics and materials as the mainstay for NASA  orbital access -- something he stated could not only be safer, but available "soon."
« Last Edit: 11/22/2019 06:36 pm by Ike17055 »

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #851 on: 11/22/2019 08:26 pm »
If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

I started in 2004 because that's when President George W. Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle and directed NASA to work on a replacement.

While this may be stretching it a bit, one could make the case that it "started" immediately following the February 2003 loss of Columbia, when the replacement vehicle need became starkly apparent, and more specifically, when Astronaut John Young, just a few weeks later, wrote an article calling for NASA to develop a capsule based on a 5% larger version of Apollo with upgraded avionics and materials as the mainstay for NASA  orbital access -- something he stated could not only be safer, but available "soon."


Which goes to show that even highly seasoned astronauts have no clue about what the US manned space program is actually about.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2019 01:39 pm by woods170 »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #852 on: 11/23/2019 01:40 am »
Well, I guess I don't have a clue about the US crewed program, as I agree with John Young! :-) The US did in fact have a program in place that could have fielded a capsule relatively quickly, called OSP (Orbital Space Plane) which included capsule options.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/3541478/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/changing-shape-spacecraft-come/

Unfortunately, after Columbia, they canned the program in favour of a new program that added in the requirements of deep space operations. What we got was the 5.5 m diameter Orion and it went downhill from there.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #853 on: 11/23/2019 01:53 am »
Well, I guess I don't have a clue about the US crewed program, as I agree with John Young! :-) The US did in fact have a program in place that could have fielded a capsule relatively quickly, called OSP (Orbital Space Plane) which included capsule options.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/3541478/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/changing-shape-spacecraft-come/

Unfortunately, after Columbia, they canned the program in favour of a new program that added in the requirements of deep space operations. What we got was the 5.5 m diameter Orion and it went downhill from there.

Just an observation, from the article: "Projected cost of the OSP effort, through 2009, is $11 billion to $13 billion.", also "The OSP system is being pursued to provide a crew rescue capability for the space station by 2008, or sooner, and two-way crew transfer capability no later than 2012."

So $12B in 2003 dollars, or $17B in today's dollars, and it's not even the full two way crew transfer capability, and it's just for one spacecraft. Goes to show how much a bargain Commercial Crew is.

Online Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #854 on: 11/23/2019 03:43 am »
If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

I started in 2004 because that's when President George W. Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle and directed NASA to work on a replacement.

While this may be stretching it a bit, one could make the case that it "started" immediately following the February 2003 loss of Columbia, when the replacement vehicle need became starkly apparent, and more specifically, when Astronaut John Young, just a few weeks later, wrote an article calling for NASA to develop a capsule based on a 5% larger version of Apollo with upgraded avionics and materials as the mainstay for NASA  orbital access -- something he stated could not only be safer, but available "soon."


Which goes to show that even highly seasoned astronauts have no clue about what the US mannen space program is actually about.

That’s snarky and dismissive, but lacking in useful information.

Some people feel the purpose of the US manned space program is to wave the flag.
Others feel its purpose is to launch huge masses of dollar bills to Huntsville.

What do you believe “the US mannen space program is actually about.”
Then please explain how Young’s concept of a capsule, or any other concept, fits or doesn’t fit with that purpose.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #855 on: 11/25/2019 01:47 pm »
If you're going to count CEV, you might as well count Orbital Space Plane too, which started in 2002. And I'm sure there're efforts even earlier than that...

I started in 2004 because that's when President George W. Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle and directed NASA to work on a replacement.

While this may be stretching it a bit, one could make the case that it "started" immediately following the February 2003 loss of Columbia, when the replacement vehicle need became starkly apparent, and more specifically, when Astronaut John Young, just a few weeks later, wrote an article calling for NASA to develop a capsule based on a 5% larger version of Apollo with upgraded avionics and materials as the mainstay for NASA  orbital access -- something he stated could not only be safer, but available "soon."


Which goes to show that even highly seasoned astronauts have no clue about what the US mannen space program is actually about.

That’s snarky and dismissive, but lacking in useful information.

Some people feel the purpose of the US manned space program is to wave the flag.
Others feel its purpose is to launch huge masses of dollar bills to Huntsville.

What do you believe “the US mannen space program is actually about.”
Then please explain how Young’s concept of a capsule, or any other concept, fits or doesn’t fit with that purpose.

The primary purpose of NASA's human (pardon the earlier spell error) spaceflight program is to ship federal dollars to the right US districts so that high-paying jobs in the aerospace industry can be maintained.
Its secondary purpose is to wave the US flag in space.

My "snarky" remark was about the "soon" element in John Young's statement. As both CxP, Orion, SLS and even CCP have proven there is no "soon" when things are done NASA US government style.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #856 on: 12/05/2019 04:25 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1202636862638219266

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Bridenstine: discussions underway with Roscosmos on additional Soyuz seats. Confident we’ll get another seat for 2020, also talking about 2021. But we’re really hopefully comm’l crew will be operating by then.

Offline Ken the Bin

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #857 on: 12/06/2019 10:15 pm »
Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1203077179007000577

Quote from: NASA Commercial Crew
The launch of @BoeingSpace’s uncrewed Orbital Flight Test to the @Space_Station is now targeted for 6:36 a.m. ET Friday, Dec. 20: https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/

Offline Ken the Bin

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #858 on: 12/06/2019 10:28 pm »
Cross-post:
https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1203092891201085441

Quote from: NASA Commercial Crew
.@NASA & @SpaceX are targeting no earlier than Jan. 4 for an In-Flight Abort Test of the #CrewDragon 🐉 from Launch Complex 39A at @NASAKennedy.

The test of the escape system is one of the final tests before astronauts will fly aboard the spacecraft: http://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2019/12/06/spacex-in-flight-abort-test-launch-date-update/

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #859 on: 12/23/2019 07:14 pm »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1209204135314313216

Quote
Whoah, they did it. Back in October, Musk said they aspired to complete these 10 tests before the end of 2019. I'm hearing reasonably positive things about spring as a time frame for DM-2.

 

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