Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis

[gongora]

A Reuters interview with Crew Dragon astros had this tidbit,

Reuters...

>
The first unmanned flight of Boeing's Starliner crew capsule is expected to follow on the heels of SpaceX's debut crewed mission, to be followed by a mission carrying actual astronauts into space in 2020.
>

So basically the reporter at Reuters hasn't bothered looking at the impact of the Crew Dragon test anomaly on the schedule.

[quagmire]

A Reuters interview with Crew Dragon astros had this tidbit,

Reuters...

>
The first unmanned flight of Boeing's Starliner crew capsule is expected to follow on the heels of SpaceX's debut crewed mission, to be followed by a mission carrying actual astronauts into space in 2020.
>

I would bet that is just Reuters taking the old schedule of July being the last advertised date of DM-2 then for it to mean a further slip in Starliner's schedule.

[meberbs]

I recommend actually reading the article before saying things like the last 2 posts. Right near the beginning it says (Referring to the crew dragon launch):

While a series of design hitches and test accidents may end up pushing back this year's maiden launch to 2020,

It is not clear whether the statement at the end assumes the "pushed to 2020" or not, but it is quite plausible that the statement about flight order is based on more reliable information than is generally available. It is not like further delays to Starliner aren't likely, though delayed to 2020 seems a bit much. Possibly the statement about relative timing assumes a fairly best case Dragon 2 launch, so that both are still this year.

[gongora]

It is not clear whether the statement at the end assumes the "pushed to 2020" or not, but it is quite plausible that the statement about flight order is based on more reliable information than is generally available.

I read the article and I sincerely doubt that.

[meberbs]

It is not clear whether the statement at the end assumes the "pushed to 2020" or not, but it is quite plausible that the statement about flight order is based on more reliable information than is generally available.

I read the article and I sincerely doubt that.

Why? The author is obviously aware that other things are delaying the manned Dragon 2 possibly until 2020. They talked to astronauts who say they are being kept closely informed of the relevant investigation, and therefore have good insight into Dragon's schedule, and probably better than public information on Starliner's. It is quite possible that the astronauts gave the author a small tidbit on relative schedules.

Note that I never said that it is 100% the case, just provided a reasonable interpretation.

[yg1968]

It sounds accurate. The dates are very generally stated.

Space shuttle veterans Bob Behnken, 48, and Doug Hurley, 52 are slated for blastoff later this year or in 2020 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the debut manned flight of the Crew Dragon capsule to the International Space Station and back. [...]

The accident has upset SpaceX's launch schedule. NASA said it and SpaceX had been "reevaluating target test dates" for the crewed mission – previously scheduled for July. The latest NASA schedule now has the first unmanned flight of Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule planned for liftoff in August, ahead of SpaceX's debut crew mission carrying Behnken and Hurley, the agency said.

[docmordrid]

Dragon2 Capsule Recieves FCC Authorization ( Pending )

https://fcc.report/ELS/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp/1096-EX-ST-2019

>
Name of Applicant: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
>
Explanation

Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:

This application uses information from previous grant 0068-EX-ST-2019. This STA is necessary for Dragon2 capsule telemetry, tracking, and command, for the upcoming SpaceX Commercial Crew vehicle demonstration mission to the International Space Station. The launch and re-entry licensing authority is the FAA. Launch is also to be coordinated with the Eastern Range. On-orbit rendezvous with the ISS is to be coordinated with the NASA.
>
Requested Period of Operation

Operation Start Date: 11/01/2019

Operation End Date: 05/01/2020
>
>

[QuantumG]

Still can't believe this thread has been going for 4 years with precious little information added. Compared to COTS, this program is a black box.

[A_M_Swallow]

Still can't believe this thread has been going for 4 years with precious little information added. Compared to COTS, this program is a black box.

Yes. NASA has given up publishing milestone reports.

Where is CCDev?
Where is Lunar CATALYST?
Where is CLPS?

[theinternetftw]

Where is CLPS?

For instance, they published the winners of the first CLPS task order and the money that was awarded, but not what said task order actually was.

For that, we only heard bits and pieces from the presser, like it somehow involved selecting potential NASA payloads from a list.  And those shared bits were revealed completely by chance.  What a very weird thing to not just publish in its entirety.

[Comga]

Back to Commercial Crew Schedule discussions
Chris G's new article has "work-to dates", somewhat looser than NET launch dates for Commercial Crew of

Boeing's Starliner OFT mission : September 17
SpaceX’s crewed DM-2 mission: November 15
Boeing's crewed CFT mission:    November 30

Somehow, after a half decade of planning, bidding, designing, building, and testing the programs are shows as within two weeks.

Frankly, if the OFT Starliner lands a week after launch, a five week turnaround to the OFT sounds more than optimistic.
Then again, with preparations for the SpaceX IFA still uncertain that casts a lot of doubt on that DM-2 date.

It really IS a race, regardless of what anyone says.

[AbuSimbel]

Back to Commercial Crew Schedule discussions
Chris G's new article has "work-to dates", somewhat looser than NET launch dates for Commercial Crew of

Boeing's Starliner OFT mission : September 17
SpaceX’s crewed DM-2 mission: November 15
Boeing's crewed CFT mission:    November 30

Somehow, after a half decade of planning, bidding, designing, building, and testing the programs are shows as within two weeks.

Frankly, if the OFT Starliner lands a week after launch, a five week turnaround to the OFT sounds more than optimistic.
Then again, with preparations for the SpaceX IFA still uncertain that casts a lot of doubt on that DM-2 date.

It really IS a race, regardless of what anyone says.

Strangely (since it should be pretty close) I haven't seen it mentioned a lot as of late, but Boeing still has to perform TWO tests before CFT. When's their Abort Test?

[kevinof]

Boeing are not doing an inflight abort. Just an unmanned and then crew flight.

[AbuSimbel]

Boeing are not doing an inflight abort. Just an unmanned and then crew flight.

No, they still have to do a Pad Abort test.
SpaceX is performing 3 tests before Crewed flight: a Pad Abort test and DM-1 (which they already completed), plus the In flight abort test. Boeing only plans to do two tests: Pad abort and OFT, of which they've completed none.

[whitelancer64]

Back to Commercial Crew Schedule discussions
Chris G's new article has "work-to dates", somewhat looser than NET launch dates for Commercial Crew of

Boeing's Starliner OFT mission : September 17
SpaceX’s crewed DM-2 mission: November 15
Boeing's crewed CFT mission:    November 30

Somehow, after a half decade of planning, bidding, designing, building, and testing the programs are shows as within two weeks.

Frankly, if the OFT Starliner lands a week after launch, a five week turnaround to the OFT sounds more than optimistic.
Then again, with preparations for the SpaceX IFA still uncertain that casts a lot of doubt on that DM-2 date.

It really IS a race, regardless of what anyone says.

Strangely (since it should be pretty close) I haven't seen it mentioned a lot as of late, but Boeing still has to perform TWO tests before CFT. When's their Abort Test?

I've said for years that the "race" between Boeing and SpaceX was neck and neck. SpaceX looked to be very ahead at some points, but have suffered setbacks and delays. Indeed, both have suffered setbacks and delays. Now nearing the end, they've got a notional plan to launch crew test flights in the same month. Even I would never have bet money on that :p

Re: Boeing's pad abort test, I haven't seen anything more specific than "later this summer."

[AbuSimbel]

I've said for years that the "race" between Boeing and SpaceX was neck and neck. SpaceX looked to be very ahead at some points, but have suffered setbacks and delays. Indeed, both have suffered setbacks and delays. Now nearing the end, they've got a notional plan to launch crew test flights in the same month. Even I would never have bet money on that :p

Re: Boeing's pad abort test, I haven't seen anything more specific than "later this summer."

Yeah I don't believe it too, especially since the average error in the predictions for this program far exceeds the 2-weeks difference currently projected between DM-2 and CFT.

As for the Abort test: if it really is slated to occur later this summer it's even stranger that they seem to avoid talking about it...

[abaddon]

SpaceX plans to perform 3 tests before Crewed flight: a Pad Abort test and DM-1 (which they already completed), plus the In flight abort test.

SpaceX already did their Pad Abort test years ago.  They will (again) test the in-flight abort test vehicle on the ground - this time hopefully not blowing it up! - but that's not a pad abort test, just a precursor to the in-flight abort test.

[EDIT] On re-read, I think you're saying the same thing, but it is confusingly worded.

[Thorny]

Frankly, if the OFT Starliner lands a week after launch, a five week turnaround to the OFT sounds more than optimistic.

If you mean between OFT and CFT, that looks like nine weeks, not five (Sep 24-ish to Nov 30). Still very optimistic.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Eric is usually well-informed:

twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1145677058821021703

Here are a couple of things I think I know about commercial crew this morning.

1. NASA will do well to get Boeing's uncrewed test flight, and SpaceX's in-flight abort test done in 2019. Crewed flights are not entirely off the table, but unlikely.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1145677592579715075

2. SpaceX has been working well with NASA after April's Crew Dragon explosion in Florida. Two sources confirm issue is not with Super Draco thrusters, and probably will cause a delay of months, rather than a year or more.

[Olaf]

https://twitter.com/ulalaunch/status/1149439280244244480