Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis

[su27k]

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1106637988979712000

Not sure if this is official yet, but multiple sources say the NET date for Starliner's OFT (uncrewed test flight) is now August.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, as the Starliner that flies is likely to be very close to the final design for a crewed mission.

[cebri]

Currently, domestic crew capability is scheduled to become available in August 2019 for SpaceX and in December 2019 for Boeing

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy_2020_congressional_justification.pdf

edit:

That is out of date.

[gongora]

That is out of date.

[cebri]

That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

[gongora]

That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

It may have just been published but those dates are no longer accurate (unless they're just talking about test flights.) Those are the dates they were talking about in December.

[PM3]

That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

It may have just been published but those dates are no longer accurate (unless they're just talking about test flights.) Those are the dates they were talking about in December.

Look at page LSO-35 of that document!

Aug 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3
Apr 2020 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4

Two regular USCV flights in the same month don't make sense. And all the CRS dates in that table match the dates published in February 2019. Now translate:

U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1 = SpX-DM2
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2 = Boe-CFT
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3 = what we have been calling USCV-1
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4 = what we have been calling USCV-2

[Svetoslav]

There are hints (e.g. Eric Berger's Twitter) that large delays for Starliner are to be announced soon. The uncrewed test flight is now expected NET August.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1106637988979712000

[gongora]

That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

It may have just been published but those dates are no longer accurate (unless they're just talking about test flights.) Those are the dates they were talking about in December.

Look at page LSO-35 of that document!

Aug 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3
Apr 2020 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4

Two regular USCV flights in the same month don't make sense. And all the CRS dates in that table match the dates published in February 2019. Now translate:

U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1 = SpX-DM2
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2 = Boe-CFT
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3 = what we have been calling USCV-1
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4 = what we have been calling USCV-2

...and on page LSO-32 you have "The first Post Certification Mission to ISS is scheduled for FY 2019.", which would be the August date (FY ends September 30).

[PM3]

...and on page LSO-32 you have "The first Post Certification Mission to ISS is scheduled for FY 2019.", which would be the August date (FY ends September 30).

Sure. Dragon needs to be certified for crew before SpX-DM2, which is planned for August.

[gongora]

...and on page LSO-32 you have "The first Post Certification Mission to ISS is scheduled for FY 2019.", which would be the August date (FY ends September 30).

Sure. Dragon needs to be certified for crew before SpX-DM2, which is planned for August.

"Post Certification Mission" is not DM-2.

[PM3]

Hmm. This supports your interpretation:

After the initial flights, the regular flight plan will provide for two commercial crew flights per year carrying four crew each flight. However, the first two flights for each provider may be scheduled more frequently to reduce risk and accomplish more research.

This would mean that they

* mixed up-to-date CRS schedule with obviously outdated USCV schedule in the same table.  E.g. CRS-19 was moved from Oct 2019 to Dec 2019 last month, so this is up to date,
* with the outdated UCSV-1 schedule accidentially matching the current planning for SpX-DM2 of NET Aug 2019,
* and forgot to list SpX-DM2 and Boe-CFT as "significant events". (SpX-DM1 and Boe-OFT also are missing, but less significant.)

On the other hand, the reassigning of the terms USCV-1 and USCV-2 to SpX-DM2 and Boe-CFT really would be a surprise; compare it to this table.

[gongora]

"Post Certification Mission" and "USCV-1" have specific meanings in this program.  They come after the test flights.  The public releases of dates for CCTCap have been a mess for a while now.  What really matters is just the next flight for each provider, anything after that is a placeholder.

[cebri]

https://ria.ru/20190320/1551958175.html

RIA: OFT flight NET 17th August

[jpo234]

Boeing delays Starliner test flights

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1113435289618399232

NASA and @BoeingSpace have agreed to target August for its uncrewed test flight to the @Space_Station and to extend the duration of the company’s first crewed flight test: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-and-boeing-extend-starliner-crew-flight-test-duration-to-space-station-target-new …

Important qualification:

Boeing is now targeting August for its uncrewed Orbital Flight Test, although this date is a working date and to be confirmed.

[Proponent]

Starliner's first crewed mission not likely before 2020.

I wonder whether Boeing has decided that, with things so bad already (737 Max and SLS disasters), now is a good time to drop all the bad news its been trying to not talk about, on the theory that things can't get much worse.

[ncb1397]

NASA may be executing contingencies to maintain U.S. crew presence on station during commercial crew delays and dwindling Soyuz seats.

Koch arrived on board the space station March 14, beginning scientific research activities as part of the Expedition 59 crew. She’s now scheduled to remain in orbit until February 2020, spanning Expedition 59, 60 and 61.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/a-look-at-the-science-ahead-for-christina-koch-and-andrew-morgan

[Alexphysics]

NASA may be executing contingencies to maintain U.S. crew presence on station during commercial crew delays and dwindling Soyuz seats.

Koch arrived on board the space station March 14, beginning scientific research activities as part of the Expedition 59 crew. She’s now scheduled to remain in orbit until February 2020, spanning Expedition 59, 60 and 61.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/a-look-at-the-science-ahead-for-christina-koch-and-andrew-morgan

This is planned not due to commercial crew delays but to free up a seat for an UAE astronaut that will go to the ISS in October. This extension has been discussed for months and was recently given a green light.

[erioladastra]

Starliner's first crewed mission not likely before 2020.

I wonder whether Boeing has decided that, with things so bad already (737 Max and SLS disasters), now is a good time to drop all the bad news its been trying to not talk about, on the theory that things can't get much worse.

Doesn't usually work that way.  Things like this is usually (and was in this case) in work before some of this stuff hit.

[docmordrid]

A Reuters interview with Crew Dragon astros had this tidbit,

Reuters...

>
The first unmanned flight of Boeing's Starliner crew capsule is expected to follow on the heels of SpaceX's debut crewed mission, to be followed by a mission carrying actual astronauts into space in 2020.
>