Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis (Read 407977 times)

Earendil · « **Reply #760 on:** 02/21/2019 07:48 pm »

Sry, but this is almost painful to follow already...

A little more of this and Spaceship will launch before Dragon and Starliner..

whitelancer64 · « **Reply #761 on:** 02/21/2019 08:03 pm »

Quote from: Rondaz on 02/21/2019 06:46 pm

Exclusive: SpaceX, Boeing design risks threaten new delays for U.S. space program

FEBRUARY 20, 2019 / 10:08 PM / UPDATED 13 HOURS AGO

By Eric M. Johnson 8 MIN READ

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-spacex-boeing-exclusive/exclusive-spacex-boeing-design-risks-threaten-new-delays-for-u-s-space-program-idUSKCN1QA0GU?il=0&utm_source=reddit.com

As mentioned earlier, this isn't much that wasn't already known. But.

1. NASA ASAP =/= "NASA"

2. Probably most of those 30-35 "lingering concerns" can only be wrapped up after the flight tests. Both Boeing and SpaceX have upcoming abort tests, and IIRC SpaceX's final parachute certification can only be completed after DM-1. Also I wouldn't be surprised if one (or more) of the risks involves the approach and docking with the ISS. That sort of risk will be closed out with the flight tests.

3. SpaceX has completed 17 parachute tests for the Commercial Crew Program so far, with an additional 10 tests planned prior to Crew Dragon’s second demonstration mission

Wow.

4. Barely any mention of Boeing's issues. *sigh*

Lar · « **Reply #762 on:** 02/21/2019 08:04 pm »

(mod) Let's pick a thread to discuss this[1] , Rondaz posted it in multiple places. That's not usually helpful. Better to post it in one place, then post a reference to it in others.

This is not a bad thread, better than General Falcon/Dragon I think.

1 - (fan) although I concur with those that say nothing much new here.

QuantumG · « **Reply #763 on:** 02/21/2019 08:54 pm »

Just a good reminder that the crew providers have to pass flight readiness reviews *twice* this year.

gongora · « **Reply #764 on:** 02/21/2019 09:47 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 02/21/2019 08:54 pm

Just a good reminder that the crew providers have to pass flight readiness reviews *twice* this year.

And the first one might be easier.

DigitalMan · « **Reply #765 on:** 02/22/2019 01:49 am »

Interesting that Elon mentions possibly doing the in-flight abort in April. Probably not a good idea to plan a trip to see it just yet.

taligent · « **Reply #766 on:** 02/25/2019 04:08 pm »

From the DM-1 FRR press conference:

Question asking when NASA will decide whether to turn Boeing's crewed test flight into an extended ISS stay - Gerstenmaier: "First we'll do the uncrewed flight with Boeing, and then we have a pad abort test with Boeing, and then would come up with the flight, so it'd be towards the end of this year, probably, is when we would decide if we want to make the crewed test flight more of mission-kind-of duration."

Has there been any other word/rumors of Boeing's crewed flight slipping past the last announced August 2019 date?

gongora · « **Reply #767 on:** 02/25/2019 04:31 pm »

Quote from: taligent on 02/25/2019 04:08 pm

Has there been any other word/rumors of Boeing's crewed flight slipping past the last announced August 2019 date?

There are plenty of rumors, not much solid information yet. Both of these companies need to focus on getting their uncrewed missions and abort system tests done, then real crewed test flight dates can be set.

QuantumG · « **Reply #768 on:** 02/25/2019 11:58 pm »

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/ has been updated with the March 2 date for DM-1.

Casual reminder: there is no in-flight abort test for Starliner.

Olaf · « **Reply #769 on:** 03/01/2019 01:26 pm »

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1101485997001490434

guckyfan · « **Reply #770 on:** 03/01/2019 04:27 pm »

Flying people. Are they talking about the manned demo missions or first crew flight to the ISS? I think crew flight.

mn · « **Reply #771 on:** 03/01/2019 04:51 pm »

Quote from: programmerdan on 02/21/2019 07:45 pm

Reading the ASAP report, I'd suspect some of the ongoing concerns, are held open because the answer cannot be found via static or dynamic analysis, only by "real" testing.

...

Which SpaceX open items have not yet been '"real" tested'?

The parachutes were tested numerous times.

The new COPV's were tested on recent flights (I think, might be not the absolute final version?).

Load and Go is tested on each launch (again unless the COPV's are not yet the final version).

rcoppola · « **Reply #772 on:** 03/01/2019 05:21 pm »

There are many we probably still don't know about and others that won't come up until this Demo Flight reveals them. However there are a few of note:

-Not all parachute edge cases have been signed off on. Not all return profiles are created equal.
-COPVs inside Dragon need to be (replaced?)
-Draco Thruster system needs modifications. They'll be fine for this demo but only because they are limiting their thermal environment. (line heaters, etc.)

But they'll be looking at everything from Seat attenuation, to Power draws, ECLLS, etc, etc.

They'll be fine. They're close but still much to do and prove out. I suspect we'll see them launch DM-2 in September/October..

whitelancer64 · « **Reply #773 on:** 03/01/2019 05:57 pm »

Quote from: mn on 03/01/2019 04:51 pm

Quote from: programmerdan on 02/21/2019 07:45 pm
Reading the ASAP report, I'd suspect some of the ongoing concerns, are held open because the answer cannot be found via static or dynamic analysis, only by "real" testing.

...

Which SpaceX open items have not yet been '"real" tested'?

The parachutes were tested numerous times.

The new COPV's were tested on recent flights (I think, might be not the absolute final version?).

Load and Go is tested on each launch (again unless the COPV's are not yet the final version).

Also, SpaceX switched suppliers for their parachutes' reef cutters. I'm presuming that their performance needs to be verified in the upcoming parachute tests. There was also unusual parachute behavior seen in one of the earlier tests, that needs to be either understood or fixed.

The Falcon 9's COPVs need a series of load-n-go flights to validate they are OK. As far as I know, the last of them is supposed to be the in-flight abort test, so that open item will not be closed out before then.

Roy_H · « **Reply #774 on:** 03/02/2019 04:40 pm »

Quote from: rcoppola on 03/01/2019 05:21 pm

There are many we probably still don't know about and others that won't come up until this Demo Flight reveals them. However there are a few of note:

-Not all parachute edge cases have been signed off on. Not all return profiles are created equal.
-COPVs inside Dragon need to be (replaced?)
-Draco Thruster system needs modifications. They'll be fine for this demo but only because they are limiting their thermal environment. (line heaters, etc.)

But they'll be looking at everything from Seat attenuation, to Power draws, ECLLS, etc, etc.

They'll be fine. They're close but still much to do and prove out. I suspect we'll see them launch DM-2 in September/October..

"-COPVs inside Dragon need to be (replaced?)"
Why? These are not immersed in liquid oxygen.

"But they'll be looking at everything from Seat attenuation, to Power draws, ECLLS, etc, etc."
What is Seat attenuation?

e of pi · « **Reply #775 on:** 03/02/2019 06:15 pm »

Quote from: Roy_H on 03/02/2019 04:40 pm

But they'll be looking at everything from Seat attenuation, to Power draws, ECLLS, etc, etc."
What is Seat attenuation?

Seat attenuation is the shock absorbers that attenuate the vibration/impacts on the seats. Checking fluid levels in hydraulics, checking pressure in gas cylinders, whatever is appropriate for the system they're using.

theinternetftw · « **Reply #776 on:** 03/03/2019 05:44 am »

Quote from: Roy_H on 03/02/2019 04:40 pm

"-COPVs inside Dragon need to be (replaced?)"
Why? These are not immersed in liquid oxygen.

We don't know specifics, but this is from the post-FRR press conference:

Quote

Bill Gerstenmaier, HEOMD: [...] Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels, they also sit in the Dragon system as well, and there are some changes that need to be made to those too, as we discovered in the testing of those systems.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #777 on:** 03/07/2019 02:14 pm »

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1103663320081596418

Quote

Starting momentarily: a meeting of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel. Plenty to discuss involving commercial crew, exploration systems, and the ISS.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1103673199500423168

Quote

ASAP member Sandy Magnus: a lot of forward work to complete on commercial crew, so not quite ready to put humans on either Boeing’s or SpaceX’s vehicles. Good to see NASA take steps to mitigate schedule pressure (by buying additional Soyuz seats.)

Clearly ASAP think a way to go yet before crew fly on Dragon or Starliner.

rockets4life97 · « **Reply #778 on:** 03/08/2019 02:55 pm »

The "better than expected" quote from NASA regarding DM-1 makes me optimistic that there won't be any need for major redesigns that would push the schedule 3 or 6 months out from the current targets.

programmerdan · « **Reply #779 on:** 03/08/2019 03:37 pm »

That quote gives me hope... but I remain cautious. The adrenaline is running high, initial excitement is there... once everyone can sit down and look at the data, especially from Ripley, we may see some maturation of narrative in terms of take-aways and practical improvements to be made, and those will translate into schedule changes.

I'm hopeful for "by end of year" but nothing more, still.