Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis

[Steven Pietrobon]

Here's the video in that blog.

[Comga]

https://ria.ru/20190117/1549466630.html
Google translate:

"As part of the flight tests, the Starliner ship will fly to the ISS in unmanned mode on March 28, in the manned one - on August 27," said the agency interlocutor.
...
Another spacecraft Dragon-2, designed by SpaceX, will go to the ISS in unmanned mode on February 9, in manned spacecraft - in July. NASA astronauts Robert Benken and Douglas Hurley will fly the ship.

SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed):              February 9, 2019
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 28,2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed):                  July 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed):       August 27, 2019

[Alexphysics]

https://ria.ru/20190117/1549466630.html
Google translate:

"As part of the flight tests, the Starliner ship will fly to the ISS in unmanned mode on March 28, in the manned one - on August 27," said the agency interlocutor.
...
Another spacecraft Dragon-2, designed by SpaceX, will go to the ISS in unmanned mode on February 9, in manned spacecraft - in July. NASA astronauts Robert Benken and Douglas Hurley will fly the ship.

SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed):              February 9, 2019
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 28,2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed):                  July 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed):       August 27, 2019

Just FYI, Boeing dates have changed from those ones they're citing. Expect both to move to the right by about a month

[woods170]

https://ria.ru/20190117/1549466630.html
Google translate:

"As part of the flight tests, the Starliner ship will fly to the ISS in unmanned mode on March 28, in the manned one - on August 27," said the agency interlocutor.
...
Another spacecraft Dragon-2, designed by SpaceX, will go to the ISS in unmanned mode on February 9, in manned spacecraft - in July. NASA astronauts Robert Benken and Douglas Hurley will fly the ship.

SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed):              February 9, 2019
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 28,2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed):                  July 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed):       August 27, 2019

Just FYI, Boeing dates have changed from those ones they're citing. Expect both to move to the right by about a month

Correct. And on top of that I'm hearing from sources that the Boeing's OFT is now tentatively projected for early May 2019. Not March, not even April, but May.

[Alexphysics]

https://ria.ru/20190117/1549466630.html
Google translate:

"As part of the flight tests, the Starliner ship will fly to the ISS in unmanned mode on March 28, in the manned one - on August 27," said the agency interlocutor.
...
Another spacecraft Dragon-2, designed by SpaceX, will go to the ISS in unmanned mode on February 9, in manned spacecraft - in July. NASA astronauts Robert Benken and Douglas Hurley will fly the ship.

SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed):              February 9, 2019
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 28,2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed):                  July 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed):       August 27, 2019

Just FYI, Boeing dates have changed from those ones they're citing. Expect both to move to the right by about a month

Correct. And on top of that I'm hearing from sources that the Boeing's OFT is now tentatively projected for early May 2019. Not March, not even April, but May.

That's why I said by about a month, you know, March 28th is almost April for me, heh

[gongora]

Test Flight Planning Dates:
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): March 2, 2019
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): NET April 2019
Boeing Pad Abort Test: NET May 2019
SpaceX In-Flight Abort Test: June 2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): July 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): NET August 2019

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2019/02/06/nasa-partners-update-commercial-crew-launch-dates/

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Not sure what to make of this:

https://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/1096069444697128961

Just because @SpaceX is slated to test its crewed vehicle before @BoeingSpace, doesn’t necessarily mean it will fly the first manned mission for @NASA... (1 of 2)

https://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/1096069538527928320

.@NASA @JimBridenstine tells @CNBC: “I think there is going to be less time between the un-crewed vehicle for @Boeing and the crewed vehicle for $BA and longer time between @SpaceX which means whoever gets to fly that first crew, um, we don’t know right now” (2 of 2)

Once again Bridenstine's public statement about CC schedule doesn't seem to align with other info from NASA (such as the dates in the previous post above!).

[rcoppola]

This may have something to do with SpaceX needing to recover and refurbish DM-1 capsule for the In-Flight Abort test and associated sign-offs on the resulting data before DM-2.

[Alexphysics]

This may have something to do with SpaceX needing to recover and refurbish DM-1 capsule for the In-Flight Abort test and associated sign-offs on the resulting data before DM-2.

And obvioisly Boeing will have it much easier with paperwork after they do their pad abort test, a test that SpaceX did 4 years ago. 21st Century, when papers are what make things fly into space. So futuristic!

[Lar]

Not sure what to make of this:

https://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/1096069444697128961

Just because @SpaceX is slated to test its crewed vehicle before @BoeingSpace, doesn’t necessarily mean it will fly the first manned mission for @NASA... (1 of 2)

https://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/1096069538527928320

.@NASA @JimBridenstine tells @CNBC: “I think there is going to be less time between the un-crewed vehicle for @Boeing and the crewed vehicle for $BA and longer time between @SpaceX which means whoever gets to fly that first crew, um, we don’t know right now” (2 of 2)

Once again Bridenstine's public statement about CC schedule doesn't seem to align with other info from NASA (such as the dates in the previous post above!).

(fan) Pretty simple really. SpaceX has been ready to go  with DM-1 since December but something is holding them back. Bridenstine just hinted that he's aware of it. Or doing it.  The optics of SpaceX winning this race are really really bad for Boeing so.. they won't win.  They won't be allowed to. Watch Boeing crow about being first in their PR (remember, they bragged that they would get to Mars first), mark my words.  That's my view.

[woods170]

(fan) Pretty simple really. SpaceX has been ready to go  with DM-1 since December but something is holding them back. Bridenstine just hinted that he's aware of it. Or doing it.  The optics of SpaceX winning this race are really really bad for Boeing so.. they won't win.  They won't be allowed to. Watch Boeing crow about being first in their PR (remember, they bragged that they would get to Mars first), mark my words.  That's my view.

[ridiculous conspiracy theory]
There is $ 1.6Billion worth of reasons why NASA is letting Boeing win the race to get the flag from the ISS.
You see, it would make NASA and Boeing look incredibly bad if a new-space company, which received $1.6B less than Boeing, won this race.

So, what I expect to happen is this: SpaceX will be first to launch the unmanned test flight. And then magically some "issues" will crop up, according to NASA, that will substantially delay the DM-2 mission. Thus allowing Boeing to fly its CFT mission before DM-2. Which in turn gives Boeing bragging rights and NASA the right to conclude that more money will make things go faster (which in turn will help protect SLS from cancellation).
[/ridiculous conspiracy theory]


Right. @Lar: can we now please go back to the regularly scheduled program? Thank you.

[daedalus1]

If it's done a hold down firing then the rocket is ready. The spaceship is ready months ago, hence it being on top. Normally there is a delay of a few days after the hold down firing before it is launched, and that is just to put the payload on top. The mind boggles at what they need to look at that takes a month.

[yg1968]

Conspiracy theory or not, this is the second time that Bridenstine has made some puzzling comments about the commercial crew schedule.

[spacebleachers]

He has some history to back him up. Consider the following:

1) Time difference between first Falcon 9 launch and second - approximately 6 months
2) Time difference between first Dragon launch and next - approximately 1.5 years
3) Time difference between first Falcon Heavy and next - TBD, although it seems like it will be this coming month, so let's say over a year. And that was after Elon saying he was expecting only a few months between the first and second Falcon Heavy Launch

As was pointed out before, SpaceX will be using the Demo-1 Crew Dragon vehicle to do the abort test. It's been stated in the past that the timeline is aggressive between Demo-1 and the abort test. Any delay in processing for the abort test will almost certainly delay Demo-2. In addition, Demo-2 won't fly until the abort test is completed, data analysis completed, and any issues resolved. So, the month or two between abort and Demo-2 is even aggressive.

Boeing on the other hand is not using the same vehicle for their abort test. So, that bit of processing risk doesn't exist for their abort test.

That being said, I think it's pretty bold on his part to assume nothing wrong will occur on the Boeing OFT-1 that won't cause a delay in OFT-2 flight too.

[abaddon]

Boeing on the other hand is not using the same vehicle for their abort test. So, that bit of processing risk doesn't exist for their abort test.

Correction, Boeing on the other hand is not doing an abort test  Since we're talking about the in-flight abort, not the pad abort that SpaceX conducted years ago.  The point about SpaceX needing to refurbish the IFA capsule is reasonable.

That being said, I think it's pretty bold on his part to assume nothing wrong will occur on the Boeing OFT-1 that won't cause a delay in OFT-2 flight too.

It's not bold, it's motivated reasoning.

[whitelancer64]

If it's done a hold down firing then the rocket is ready. The spaceship is ready months ago, hence it being on top. Normally there is a delay of a few days after the hold down firing before it is launched, and that is just to put the payload on top. The mind boggles at what they need to look at that takes a month.

The pad operations all need to be reviewed, both by SpaceX and NASA. Any and all open items need to be addressed. If the fit checks / dry run / static fire found anything that required modifications to their procedures, then those all needs to be updated. Everyone who had procedures updated needs to be aware of those updates. Then they need to conduct a full LRR, Launch Readiness Review. That reviews the current state of the launchpad infrastructure, the rocket, the capsule, the and the people running everything. Anything found awry needs to be corrected. Then they'll be ready to launch.

[rcoppola]

Just a reminder that JB said he couldn't say with certainty which crew would go first. For all the obvious reasons he's completely right. Nor should he weight the probability of anyone going first. He's just managing expectations as he should. Honestly, he knows SpaceX well enough now to know if they were ready to go first and were being deliberately held back for Boeing to go first, they wouldn't be keeping it to themselves. I don't think he wants the headache from the shit-storm that would result from Congressional and Public questioning/outcries if that was publicly disseminated during what should be a hugely positive accomplishment for the Agency.

my 1.9934 cents.

[alexterrell]

I see in the news this:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/02/nasa-soyuz-seats-uninterrupted-access-iss/

From the outside, it seems that NASA would rather buy launches from the Russians. If SpaceX and Boeing had to go through the same safety validation process that Soyuz went through, how long ago could they have been launching?

[theinternetftw]

.@NASA @JimBridenstine tells @CNBC: “I think there is going to be less time between the un-crewed vehicle for @Boeing and the crewed vehicle for $BA and longer time between @SpaceX which means whoever gets to fly that first crew, um, we don’t know right now” (2 of 2)

Here's the full Bridenstine interview that quote was taken from: https://youtube.com/watch?v=65O87iAToJk&t=589

Of note: he doesn't mention Boeing's first flight as being in April/May, instead "sometime maybe this summer."

[Lar]

Right. @Lar: can we now please go back to the regularly scheduled program? Thank you.

(fan) Sounded about right to me. Except for the "ridiculous" part.

What IS the regularly scheduled program?