Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 216304 times)

Online docmordrid

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #660 on: 08/02/2018 04:18 PM »
Leaked (?) ISS schedule shows both Crew Dragon and Starliner.

Uncrewed: December 2018
Crewed: May-June 2019

Crews

Crew Dragon Operational Mission 1: Sunita Williams, Eric Boe

Starliner Crew Flight Test: Doug Hurley, Behnken, and Boeing test pilot Christopher Ferguson

Note the first Crew Dragon with a crew is labeled OM-1 (Operational Mission 1) and not DM-2 (Demo Mission 2) (!!)

IIRC, turning a crewed test flight into an operational mission had been discussed several months ago, but it was to be Starliner and not Crew Dragon.

https://twitter.com/ShuttleAlmanac/status/1024938262559780864?s=19

Space Shuttle Almanac @ShuttleAlmanac
Update - Latest crew assignments and planning dates upcoming for the #ISS - a reference for tomorrows @NASA announcement on the status of crewing for @BoeingSpace #Starliner & @SpaceX #Dragon2 @Commercial_Crew (names in Blue have Twitter handles) https://t.co/UthyuLu8oc
« Last Edit: 08/02/2018 04:38 PM by docmordrid »
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Offline DwightM

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #661 on: 08/02/2018 04:26 PM »
That may end up being the case, but Shuttle Almanac has proven to be unreliable in the past when it comes to crew assignments.

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #662 on: 08/02/2018 04:31 PM »
Leaked ISS schedule shows both Crew Dragon and Starliner.

Uncrewed: December 2018
Crewed: May-June 2019
(snip)

With identical dates, this schedule is careful to not indicate which will fly first either unmanned or with crew.
Can the dates be anything more than placeholders?

The other details are curious:  OM-1?  MLM 'Nauka" Nov 8, 2019?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #663 on: 08/02/2018 04:32 PM »
That looks more "guess" than "leak"

Offline erioladastra

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #664 on: 08/02/2018 05:11 PM »
That looks more "guess" than "leak"

Bingo

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #665 on: 08/02/2018 06:33 PM »
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/08/02/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-3/

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): late 2018 / early 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): mid-2019
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): April 2019

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #666 on: 08/02/2018 11:52 PM »
That looks more "guess" than "leak"

Or “talking points” for tomorrow’s presentation by Bridenstein (now that Pence has cancelled) designed to say as little as possible.
Not even guesses.  Just possibilities, dates that aren’t (yet) clearly wrong, with just enough other stuff to call it an announcement.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline JDTractorGuy

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #667 on: 08/03/2018 02:02 AM »
Dates have been updated on the nasa.gov launches and landings page.  The Boeing flight tests have been removed entirely, while the SpaceX one's have been shifted to the new target dates.

Online docmordrid

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #668 on: 08/03/2018 06:26 AM »
Both providers dates are listed at the top of the page, but the Boeing Starliner Launches and Landings mission summaries are POOF! Casper.
« Last Edit: 08/03/2018 06:28 AM by docmordrid »
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Online yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #669 on: 08/03/2018 01:49 PM »
That looks more "guess" than "leak"

Or “talking points” for tomorrow’s presentation by Bridenstein (now that Pence has cancelled) designed to say as little as possible.
Not even guesses.  Just possibilities, dates that aren’t (yet) clearly wrong, with just enough other stuff to call it an announcement.

They were talking about Shuttle Almanac's guesses. The one that were released by NASA yesterday aren't guesses.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #670 on: 08/03/2018 01:51 PM »
They were talking about Shuttle Almanac's guesses. The one that were released by NASA yesterday aren't guesses.

Well, maybe they're more informed guesses...

Online yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #671 on: 08/04/2018 01:17 PM »
Quote from: Eric Berger
Just talked to Gwynne Shotwell briefly. She’s fired up! Seems pretty confident in a November launch of the uncrewed flight test.
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1025418239940157445

Quote from: Eric Berger
She was on point. The schedule assumes no major issues. Kathy Lueders said later it was reasonable as well. As ever, the proof will be in the flying.
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1025729802395901952

Online yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #672 on: 08/06/2018 01:03 PM »
See below:

Quote from: Elon Musk
That’s right provided the two Crew Dragon test flights go well. Hardware will def be ready.
 
Quote from: WorldAndScience
SpaceX Will Be Ready to Transport Humans in April 2019, NASA Estimates https://www.universal-sci.com/headlines/2018/8/4/spacex-will-be-ready-to-transport-humans-in-april-2019-nasa-estimates

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026262681848709120

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #673 on: 08/27/2018 05:51 PM »
Quote
Gerst says NASA has margin on ISS for commercial crew to accommodate delays until January, 2020.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1034134063161008133

Quote
He also mentioned that NASA is in discussions with @SpaceX about possibly making their second test flight into an operational mission as well.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1034134232459816961

Edit to add:

Quote
Gerstenmaier: think we have enough margin in cmrcl crew schedule with the contract change for Boeing to possibly use last test flight for operational mission.  May be contract change for SpaceX too.

https://twitter.com/spcplcyonline/status/1034134434008780802
« Last Edit: 08/27/2018 05:54 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #674 on: 08/27/2018 09:01 PM »
If Boeing CFT duration is extended the crew won't change, same 3 already announced would do the mission.

Online oiorionsbelt

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #675 on: 08/31/2018 02:05 AM »
If Boeing CFT duration is extended the crew won't change, same 3 already announced would do the mission.
Will the SpaceX DM-2 crew change if it is converted to an operational mission?

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #676 on: 08/31/2018 07:55 AM »
If Boeing CFT duration is extended the crew won't change, same 3 already announced would do the mission.
Will the SpaceX DM-2 crew change if it is converted to an operational mission?
Likely a third astronaut will be added to the crew in that case.
But right now the Boeing CFT holds the best papers to be converted into an operational mission.

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #677 on: 08/31/2018 11:17 PM »
If Boeing CFT duration is extended the crew won't change, same 3 already announced would do the mission.
Will the SpaceX DM-2 crew change if it is converted to an operational mission?
Likely a third astronaut will be added to the crew in that case.
But right now the Boeing CFT holds the best papers to be converted into an operational mission.
Why do you say that? "best papers"?
Because they have a selected and named third crew member?
Do you know of some on-orbit longevity testing or some extra risk that precludes a third crew member on DM-2?
Most schedules have SpaceX launching crew before Boeing.  Would those "best papers" enable NASA to sit out a reduction in crew size if SpaceX is flying but Boeing is not?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #678 on: 10/04/2018 08:49 PM »
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/10/04/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-4/
Quote
Test Flight Planning Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): August 2019
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): January 2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): June 2019
...
Anticipated Readiness Dates for Operational Missions:
First operational mission: August 2019
Second operational mission: December 2019

Those dates sure look like they've decided to make the Boeing CFT an operational mission.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #679 on: 10/04/2018 09:12 PM »
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/launch-dates-to-be-updated-more-regularly-as-commercial-crew-flights-draw-nearer
Quote
As NASA’s Commercial Crew partners Boeing and SpaceX crew transportation systems are within months of being ready for the first test flights of their spacecraft that will carry astronauts to and from the International Space Station from U.S. soil, the scheduling of launch dates enters a new phase.

This near-term scheduling balances the commercial partners’ readiness with NASA and the International Space Station’s schedule and the availability of the Eastern Range to establish a target launch date. NASA plans to provide up-to-date launch planning dates on the Commercial Crew blog, which will be updated approximately monthly, with near-term launches also appearing on NASA’s launches and landing schedule.

“As we get closer to launching human spacecraft from the U.S., we can be more precise in our schedules,” said Phil McAlister, director of Commercial Spaceflight Development at NASA Headquarters. “This allows our technical teams to work efficiently toward the most up-to-date schedules, while allowing us to provide regular updates publicly on the progress of our commercial crew partners.”

SpaceX and the Commercial Crew Program are working together to have the hardware and associated activities ready for its first test flight – Demo-1 – in December 2018, but the launch will occur in January to accommodate docking opportunities at the orbiting laboratory. Boeing’s targeted readiness for its Orbital Flight Test is March 2019. Both test flights will be uncrewed missions.
...

Monthly would be a lot better than the six-monthly we've been getting.