No, different procurement and insight processes are involved.
However, the extent to which these schedules represent an accurate estimate of each contractor’s final certification date is unclear for the following two reasons:1. Each contractor provides schedule updates to the Commercial Crew Program at quarterly status reviews, and the dates frequently change. The program has held 12 quarterly reviews since each contract was awarded. Boeing has reported a delay six times and SpaceX has reported a delay nine times that included at least one key event identified in the timeline above at these quarterly reviews.2. The Commercial Crew Program is tracking risks that both contractors could experience additional schedule delays and, based on our ongoing work, we found that the program’s own analysis indicates that certification is likely to slip into December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing. Each month, the program updates its schedule risk analysis, based on the contractors’ internal schedules as well as the program ’s perspectives and insight into specific technical risks. The Commercial Crew Program manager stated that differences between the contractors’ proposed schedules and the program’s schedule risk analysis include the following:• The contractors are aggressive and use their schedule dates to motivate their teams, while NASA adds additional schedule margin for testing.• Both contractors assume an efficiency factor in getting to the crewed flight test that NASA does not factor into its analysis.The program manager explained further that the program meets with each contractor monthly to discuss schedules and everyone agrees to the relationships between events in the schedule even if they disagree on the length of time required to complete events. The program manager added, however, that she relies on her prior experience for a better sense of schedule timeframes as opposed to relying on the contractors’ schedules.
Hans: "This is a much closer relationship than I envisioned."
How I'm reading it, Boeing and SpaceX believe in their current schedule (crewed flights by years end and certification early next year) but NASA does not have any confidence in this.I don't have a problem with Boeing and SpaceX stating their confident in their current schedule and I don't have a problem with NASA having issues with it.As they say, proof is in the pudding.
Quote from: gongora on 01/17/2018 02:57 pmHans: "This is a much closer relationship than I envisioned." That's not a good thing.
Hans is (to my read) hinting at why there is so much slippage... the testimony presented so far (I haven't reviewed it all, just what snippets are given here) doesn't address the churn in requirements and the impact of the very high level of oversight compared to COTS....
How I'm reading it, Boeing and SpaceX believe in their current schedule (crewed flights by years end and certification early next year) but NASA does not have any confidence in this.
I don't have a problem with Boeing and SpaceX stating their confident in their current schedule and I don't have a problem with NASA having issues with it.
GAO warns of further delays in certifying commercial crew vehiclesby Jeff Foust — January 17, 2018WASHINGTON — As the two companies developing commercial crew systems reiterated that they were on schedule to carry out test flights later this year, a government analysis of schedules concluded those vehicles may not be certified to carry NASA astronauts until late 2019 or early 2020.
GAO testimony attached. From p13:Quote2. The Commercial Crew Program is tracking risks that both contractors could experience additional schedule delays and, based on our ongoing work, we found that the program’s own analysis indicates that certification is likely to slip into December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing.
2. The Commercial Crew Program is tracking risks that both contractors could experience additional schedule delays and, based on our ongoing work, we found that the program’s own analysis indicates that certification is likely to slip into December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing.
Are those supposed to be 2018 and 2019? or are they really saying that they expect certification to come almost a year after the current targets for the crewed demo missions?
Gerst said he expects to have US crewed access to space, through the commercial crew program, in operation in 12-20 months.
Gerst said NASA’s Soyuz access to ISS ends in Oct/Nov 2019. As for contingency planning if comm’l crew isn’t ready by then, he said one option would be to use their test flights in a more operational role, but still brainstorming other options.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/961669552374517760QuoteGerst said he expects to have US crewed access to space, through the commercial crew program, in operation in 12-20 months. https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/961670055124750338QuoteGerst said NASA’s Soyuz access to ISS ends in Oct/Nov 2019. As for contingency planning if comm’l crew isn’t ready by then, he said one option would be to use their test flights in a more operational role, but still brainstorming other options.
An article by Jeff Fousthttp://spacenews.com/nasa-studying-commercial-crew-contingency-plans/
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), meeting March 1 at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, didn’t note any new major safety-related problems involving the two commercial crew vehicles under development, Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, or NASA’s Space Launch System and Orion programs. However, members raised concerns about the fact that the simultaneous development of the vehicles could strain NASA’s ability to perform qualification and other safety reviews. That had the potential to create additional schedule pressure on those programs.
This is not the first time it is being noted by outside experts that additional delays to CCP might be the result of NASA underestimating the amount of work still to be done by NASA.
