Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 407999 times)

Offline Brovane

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1292
  • United States
  • Liked: 833
  • Likes Given: 1818
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #320 on: 12/13/2016 03:05 am »

Quote
NASA Program officials anticipate SpaceX will encounter additional delays on the path to certification. For example, in January 2015, the tunnel that provides a passageway for astronauts and cargo between the Dragon and the ISS was reported to have cracked during the heat treatment phase of the manufacturing process. As a result, SpaceX delayed qualification testing by approximately one year to better align the tests as SpaceX moves toward certification. SpaceX has also experienced ongoing issues with stress fractures in turbopumps that must be resolved prior to flight.

Has there been anymore discussion around how serious these stress fractures are in the turbo-pumps of the Merlin engine? 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12192
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18492
  • Likes Given: 12560
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #321 on: 12/13/2016 09:24 am »
NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Flight Dates
Posted on December 12, 2016 at 5:11 pm by Stephanie Martin

The next generation of American spacecraft and rockets that will launch astronauts to the International Space Station are nearing the final stages of development and evaluation. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program will return human spaceflight launches to U.S. soil, providing reliable and cost-effective access to low-Earth orbit on systems that meet our safety and mission requirements. To meet NASA’s requirements, the commercial providers must demonstrate that their systems are ready to begin regular flights to the space station. Two of those demonstrations are uncrewed flight tests, known as Orbital Flight Test for Boeing, and Demonstration Mission 1 for SpaceX. After the uncrewed flight tests, both companies will execute a flight test with crew prior to being certified by NASA for crew rotation mission. The schedule below reflects a fourth quarter update from SpaceX and the dates Boeing released in October 2016.

Targeted Flight Dates:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test: June 2018

Boeing Crew Flight Test: August 2018

SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1: November 2017

SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2: May 2018

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2016/12/12/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-flight-dates
Good thing to remember here is that the delays from 2015 to early/mid 2017 were budget-driven, courtesy of under-funding by US Congress. However, as indicated in the OIG report from last september, any delays beyond mid 2017 are primarily driven by technical problems, changing requirements and NASA bureaucracy.
Anyone here would be well advised to NOT expect any CCP mission - manned or unmanned- before the end of 2018. As indicated in het OIG report from last september NASA is much behind on reviewing the CCP contractors' hazard reports. Any "surprises" from those will likely result (again) in finetuning of requirements and therefore additional delays.
IMO, NASA will do an "emergency" buy of Soyuz seats within the next six months to compensate for continued CCP delays.
« Last Edit: 01/25/2017 03:43 pm by woods170 »

Offline baldusi

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8371
  • Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Liked: 2555
  • Likes Given: 8365
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #322 on: 12/13/2016 01:39 pm »
Quote
NASA Program officials anticipate SpaceX will encounter additional delays on the path to certification. For example, in January 2015, the tunnel that provides a passageway for astronauts and cargo between the Dragon and the ISS was reported to have cracked during the heat treatment phase of the manufacturing process. As a result, SpaceX delayed qualification testing by approximately one year to better align the tests as SpaceX moves toward certification. SpaceX has also experienced ongoing issues with stress fractures in turbopumps that must be resolved prior to flight.
IIRC, the crew rating requires higher margins (1.4) than normal (1.25). May be this fractures appear near the 1.4 margin of the latest up throttling of the Merlin 1D.

Online docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6351
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 4223
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #323 on: 12/13/2016 01:47 pm »
If it's a problem with Block 5 throttle settings could they qualify with the Block 4 or some other lower but still sub-chilled settings? It's not as if there isn't a lot of headroom.
DM

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10438
  • US
  • Liked: 14356
  • Likes Given: 6148
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #324 on: 12/13/2016 02:39 pm »
The report did not say it had anything to do with the latest Merlin upgrades.  "Ongoing" issues sounds like it's been known for a while.  It also doesn't say it's something that has happened on a flown booster, it could be something they're seeing during manufacturing.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 50808
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 85327
  • Likes Given: 38210
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #325 on: 01/25/2017 03:07 pm »
Quote
Eric Berger ‏@SciGuySpace  6m6 minutes ago
Excited to see the [Boeing] suit, but a good source tells me more delays likely for both Starliner and Dragon in coming months.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/824285655643648004

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12192
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18492
  • Likes Given: 12560
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #326 on: 01/25/2017 03:46 pm »
Quote
Eric Berger ‏@SciGuySpace  6m6 minutes ago
Excited to see the [Boeing] suit, but a good source tells me more delays likely for both Starliner and Dragon in coming months.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/824285655643648004
Not surprising. NASA issued some additional requirements last year and extended several existing requirements. As long as NASA keeps doing that (and the CCtCAP agreements very much allows NASA to do so) the first flights of the CCP vehicles will keep shifting to the right.

Offline JasonAW3

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2443
  • Claremore, Ok.
  • Liked: 410
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #327 on: 01/25/2017 04:53 pm »
Quote
Eric Berger ‏@SciGuySpace  6m6 minutes ago
Excited to see the [Boeing] suit, but a good source tells me more delays likely for both Starliner and Dragon in coming months.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/824285655643648004
Not surprising. NASA issued some additional requirements last year and extended several existing requirements. As long as NASA keeps doing that (and the CCtCAP agreements very much allows NASA to do so) the first flights of the CCP vehicles will keep shifting to the right.

Same problem most Military Equipment contracts have.  Mission Creep.

The more that a system can do, the more the government wants the system to do, beyond the basic parameters that were set up originally.
My God!  It's full of universes!

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 50808
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 85327
  • Likes Given: 38210
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #328 on: 01/25/2017 06:44 pm »
Eric has subsequently tweeted, when asked why the further delays:

Quote
@SafeNotAnOption @thehighfrontier more technical problems.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/824313975047389185

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5152
  • Liked: 1003
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #329 on: 01/26/2017 04:47 am »
Eric has subsequently tweeted, when asked why the further delays:

Quote
@SafeNotAnOption @thehighfrontier more technical problems.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/824313975047389185

No its always the fault of Congress if things dont go well, and it's always the brave enterpreneurs saving the day when they do. Those are them rules. /s
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12192
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18492
  • Likes Given: 12560
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #330 on: 01/26/2017 08:29 am »
Eric has subsequently tweeted, when asked why the further delays:

Quote
@SafeNotAnOption @thehighfrontier more technical problems.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/824313975047389185
Yes. And some of the technical problems that bedeviled Dragon 2 in late 2015 were a direct result of NASA adding additional requirements. The most prominent one being the requirement to have early missions of Dragon 2 land in the ocean under parachutes, in stead of propulsive landing on land. Other technical problems are associated with the fact that both companies are now deep into the "bending metal" phase.

Offline A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8906
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 500
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #331 on: 01/26/2017 10:08 am »
Eric has subsequently tweeted, when asked why the further delays:

Quote
@SafeNotAnOption @thehighfrontier more technical problems.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/824313975047389185
Yes. And some of the technical problems that bedeviled Dragon 2 in late 2015 were a direct result of NASA adding additional requirements. The most prominent one being the requirement to have early missions of Dragon 2 land in the ocean under parachutes, in stead of propulsive landing on land. Other technical problems are associated with the fact that both companies are now deep into the "bending metal" phase.

If mechanical development is like software development I found out the hard way that the quickest way to incorporate requirements changes was to complete the current stage and then modify the working product. The modifications can then be done in a top down fashion starting with requirements documents and managerial controls like budgets and PERTs.

Offline SWGlassPit

  • I break space hardware
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 852
  • Liked: 902
  • Likes Given: 142
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #332 on: 01/26/2017 02:24 pm »
If mechanical development is like software development I found out the hard way that the quickest way to incorporate requirements changes was to complete the current stage and then modify the working product. The modifications can then be done in a top down fashion starting with requirements documents and managerial controls like budgets and PERTs.

Unlike software development, however, there are some decisions that can't be unmade without enormous cost.  Suppose a surprise requirement is flowed down that necessitates thickening the webs on the spacecraft pressure shell.  If you've already machined the two or three you're planning on using, you can't un-mill it.  You can't put the metal back.  You have to scrap millions of dollars of hardware and start over.

We won't even get into what it would do to your mass budget and how many other hardware changes that would require...

Offline abaddon

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3176
  • Liked: 4167
  • Likes Given: 5622
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #333 on: 01/26/2017 03:49 pm »
Unlike software development, however, there are some decisions that can't be unmade without enormous cost.
Yeah, that's true in software development as well.  Scrapping written, working, reviewed code can be just as expensive as junking hardware.

Offline SWGlassPit

  • I break space hardware
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 852
  • Liked: 902
  • Likes Given: 142
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #334 on: 01/26/2017 04:39 pm »
I know it's true in software as well.  I should have phrased it differently: hardware development is perhaps more susceptible to cases in which seemingly minor, innocuous tweaks in design parameters (as opposed to wholesale architectural changes) require complete scrap and rebuild of enormously expensive products.

Offline okan170

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1111
  • Los Angeles
  • Liked: 6806
  • Likes Given: 1345
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #335 on: 01/26/2017 05:13 pm »
Yes. And some of the technical problems that bedeviled Dragon 2 in late 2015 were a direct result of NASA adding additional requirements. The most prominent one being the requirement to have early missions of Dragon 2 land in the ocean under parachutes, in stead of propulsive landing on land. Other technical problems are associated with the fact that both companies are now deep into the "bending metal" phase.

When did that change get made?  I remember at the intro events in 2014 that NASA talked about where it was generally agreed that it would start with water landings and then move to land landings if it was proven, and I had assumed that was the plan from the outset, but I could easily have been mistaken. 

I thought that the public Commercial Crew documents showed that they had proposed the water landings at first, perhaps thinking that NASA wouldn't go for land landings at the outset (or maybe that it would've affected their bid for the contract?).

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39359
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25388
  • Likes Given: 12164
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #336 on: 01/26/2017 05:17 pm »
There was a bootlegged computer generated video showing a Dragon parachute landing in the desert, assisted by Superdracos (like Soyuz but gentler).
« Last Edit: 01/26/2017 05:18 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6351
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 4223
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #337 on: 01/26/2017 05:32 pm »
There was a bootlegged computer generated video showing a Dragon parachute landing in the desert, assisted by Superdracos (like Soyuz but gentler).

NewSpace 2012, jump to about 2:00

*2*0
« Last Edit: 01/26/2017 05:38 pm by docmordrid »
DM

Offline A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8906
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 500
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #338 on: 01/26/2017 05:42 pm »
I know it's true in software as well.  I should have phrased it differently: hardware development is perhaps more susceptible to cases in which seemingly minor, innocuous tweaks in design parameters (as opposed to wholesale architectural changes) require complete scrap and rebuild of enormously expensive products.

Requirements changes in software are expensive. Requirements changes in hardware are very expensive. They have to be planned in rather than thrown in.

There are obvious points at which requirements can be changed.

Interim end of problem definition and high level requirements.
Interim end of detailed requirements.
Interim end of high level design - Computer Aided Design (CAD).
Interim end of unit design as CAD.
Interim end of detailed component design as CAD. Testing on a computer.
Interim end of the making of physical prototype.
Interim end of the integration and testing of units.
Interim end of the integration of entire device.
Interim end of the manufacturing of a prototype.
Interim end of the manufacturing of first production device.
Mass production.

All changes are made to the requirements and are filtered down. Some changes require more than one unit to change.


Offline rayleighscatter

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1098
  • Maryland
  • Liked: 565
  • Likes Given: 238
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #339 on: 01/26/2017 08:40 pm »
Yes. And some of the technical problems that bedeviled Dragon 2 in late 2015 were a direct result of NASA adding additional requirements. The most prominent one being the requirement to have early missions of Dragon 2 land in the ocean under parachutes, in stead of propulsive landing on land. Other technical problems are associated with the fact that both companies are now deep into the "bending metal" phase.

When did that change get made?  I remember at the intro events in 2014 that NASA talked about where it was generally agreed that it would start with water landings and then move to land landings if it was proven, and I had assumed that was the plan from the outset, but I could easily have been mistaken. 

I thought that the public Commercial Crew documents showed that they had proposed the water landings at first, perhaps thinking that NASA wouldn't go for land landings at the outset (or maybe that it would've affected their bid for the contract?).

Well, they always had to have water landings as almost any abort scenario required it.

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1