Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 408003 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #260 on: 09/06/2016 07:19 pm »
Yes, but if it's an abort, loss or damage of the Dragon's equipment is ok. Water leaking into the part that used to be flooded every time? No problem. The capsule is a writeoff anyway.  On the other hand if it's part of the CONOPS, then leaking isn't OK and must be prevented. Even if that means redesigns.

So yes, switching to primary water landings might be the cause of delay. I believe that's the point Galacticintruder was making.
« Last Edit: 09/06/2016 07:19 pm by Lar »
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Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #261 on: 09/07/2016 01:23 pm »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf
And the delayed write-up by SN: http://spacenews.com/report-warns-of-additional-commercial-crew-delays/

By the sound of it is primarily the NASA mandated switch to ocean landings that is causing much trouble for SpaceX. It is what drove the addition of a fourth parachute and the associated additional drop testing, as well as having a lot of components changed to withstand a (sustained) wet landing.

Nothing mandated about it. SpaceX's aborts always assumed ocean landing.
Emphasis mine. Correct.

BUT...

In the event of an abort the capsule would be in the water for a short time only and the crew probably even shorter given that the capsule lands close to shore and rescue units are close by and on standby during the launch.

In case of an return-from-orbit  things get quite different. In that situation the capsule can be in the water for an extended period of time, particularly when an off-nominal landing occurs or an emergency return (Gemini 8 scenario) is necessary. IMO it is the requirements for an extended stay in the water that drove the trouble for SpaceX. Under the original proposition for CCP the Dragon 2 would land on land primarily with "wet" landings only happening in case of an abort during launch (short duration).
However, NASA did not feel comfortable with propulsively assisted land landings and mandated a different landing technique on land (but Dragon 2 can't do a CST-100 style land landing) or a switch to ocean landings. The latter is what happened, but this switch did not happen until after NASA selected SpaceX as the second CCP competitor. So basically, NASA threw a wrench in the SpaceX plans for the preferred landing method. That, naturally, will lead to delays given that the design of Dragon 2 will have to be changed, requiring one-or-more additional delta CDR's. The earth landing system has to modified as well, with additional requalification required. Etc, etc.
« Last Edit: 09/07/2016 01:24 pm by woods170 »

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #262 on: 09/07/2016 02:45 pm »


In the event of an abort the capsule would be in the water for a short time only and the crew probably even shorter given that the capsule lands close to shore and rescue units are close by and on standby during the launch.

In the case of a launch pad abort, but what about an abort late in the ascent?


Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #263 on: 09/07/2016 11:55 pm »


In the event of an abort the capsule would be in the water for a short time only and the crew probably even shorter given that the capsule lands close to shore and rescue units are close by and on standby during the launch.

In the case of a launch pad abort, but what about an abort late in the ascent?

Hope the USN & USCG recovery ships pre-deployed along the flight ascent path is close enough for Oceanic pickup in several hours. Or any nearby ships capable of mounting a rescue for that matter.

Alternately load up a C-17 cargo jet to airdrop recovery equipment and deployed para-rescue personnel for middle of the ocean recovery. Before a recovery ship gets there.

Basically crew recovery from late ascent abort is a bit iffy. You need the recovery asserts be able to get to the landed vehicle in a reasonable amount of time. But the Ocean is big, fast Naval ships is able to move about 45 to 55 km per hour.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #264 on: 09/08/2016 06:46 am »
I have missed, where the concerns about water landing comes from. Cargo Dragon always lands in water and early problems with water intrusion have long been solved.

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #265 on: 09/08/2016 08:34 am »
I have missed, where the concerns about water landing comes from. Cargo Dragon always lands in water and early problems with water intrusion have long been solved.
The problems are not with water entering the pressure hull. As you say that's been solved given the experience with early cargo Dragon landings. The current problems with water taking out (shorting out) systems outside the pressure hull. Systems that need to function for an extended amount of time in the case of ocean landings. Think ECLSS, communications, etc.

Offline yg1968

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Offline savuporo

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #267 on: 09/30/2016 12:53 am »
"this is the last year, really. We mean it now"

Does anyone still remember when post-Shuttle gap was going to be a big deal and Adm. Craig Steidle's CEV spiral development for fly-offs was called "too slow" and brushed out?
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Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #268 on: 09/30/2016 01:18 am »
"this is the last year, really. We mean it now"

Does anyone still remember when post-Shuttle gap was going to be a big deal and Adm. Craig Steidle's CEV spiral development for fly-offs was called "too slow" and brushed out?

Yes. But seriousness, HSF, and the Congress haven't ever been a good combination for timely programs.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #269 on: 09/30/2016 02:51 am »
"this is the last year, really. We mean it now"

Does anyone still remember when post-Shuttle gap was going to be a big deal and Adm. Craig Steidle's CEV spiral development for fly-offs was called "too slow" and brushed out?

Yes. But seriousness, HSF, and the Congress haven't ever been a good combination for timely programs.
Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, STS weren't nearly as bad.
I think something very important has gotten lost in the 80-90 wave of aerospace consolidations, and there is a continuity gap in rebuilding the collective organizational and technical skills to do anything.
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Offline okan170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #270 on: 09/30/2016 03:37 am »
Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, STS weren't nearly as bad.
I think something very important has gotten lost in the 80-90 wave of aerospace consolidations, and there is a continuity gap in rebuilding the collective organizational and technical skills to do anything.

I wonder if it could be a combination of this (getting used to building a HSF craft in their current form) and congress' current allergy to providing funding bumps to the beginning of projects, sticking to flat budgets.  (Or sequester spending.)

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #271 on: 09/30/2016 05:56 pm »
"this is the last year, really. We mean it now"

Does anyone still remember when post-Shuttle gap was going to be a big deal and Adm. Craig Steidle's CEV spiral development for fly-offs was called "too slow" and brushed out?

Yes. But seriousness, HSF, and the Congress haven't ever been a good combination for timely programs.
Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, STS weren't nearly as bad.
I think something very important has gotten lost in the 80-90 wave of aerospace consolidations, and there is a continuity gap in rebuilding the collective organizational and technical skills to do anything.

Don't get me started on the whole Cap Weinberger debacle. In short a reductionist nightmare intent on reinforcing  defense strengths through creative destruction that had no creative only destruction. Weakened America. Bad.

Programs cited were to win perceived "soft power" NS "battles" - which they did by traditional American "overwhelm and devastate" overkill, something we/"arsenal system" is good at. However the Shuttle was a turning point.

The reason was that it was, like Weinberger, an attempt to gain an enduring global economic advantage over others. Which the "arsenal system" couldn't ever do no matter what you'd provide them with (time/resources). Because the basics of how it works is to ignore economics and go straight for the jugular.

Compare F9/ITS in broad strokes, not detail. Stands in contrast to this past.

Now, Congress is still attempting to "re-litigate" Shuttle with SLS. Same failings. Whatever you do, however it gets done ... it will need to follow more the F9/ITS "design pattern" if you want that success. And just as Bush II tried to relitigate the "Vietnam war lesson" to change American defense posture with Iraq/Afghanistan,  we ended up relearning the same lesson all over again.

Suggest this is why Congress screws up so much on these issues. They can't/don't want to learn, and want to pay for another reality. Costly and inconclusive. A form of "bargaining" with a future not going their way. Never will.

Now we don't really know what NS "soft power" means with HSF right now - rather muddy. Comes from having as a nation out head collectively up its ... well, you get the picture. Perhaps intestinal output is source of "mud"?

Clearly colonization is not America's answer to NS "soft power". But something with HSF might be. Can the dimwit policy makers get smart and channel American advantage into an enduring "soft power" strength? Somehow?

That would bring back the speed and efficiency of addressing Congress's ability to make those decisions better/faster/cheaper.

Or perhaps there is no NS "soft power" need anymore? And the China thing is a fantasy political debating point, used to scare voters on demand? If so then you'll never see sane policy, because at its root it's "insane" ...

Offline Dante80

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #272 on: 10/11/2016 08:04 pm »
 Boeing delays Starliner again, casting doubt on commercial flights in 2018

Quote
After an initial delay from late 2017 into early 2018, Boeing has acknowledged a second slippage of its schedule for the first commercial crew flights of its Starliner spacecraft. According to a report in Aviation Week, the company now says it will not be ready to begin operational flights until December 2018, a full year after NASA had originally hoped its commercial crew providers would be ready.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2016 10:43 pm by Chris Bergin »

Offline Navier–Stokes

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #273 on: 10/11/2016 09:05 pm »
Boeing delays Starliner again, casting doubt on commercial flights in 2018
Quote
Boeing's second delay appears to have been caused by supply chain issues and other factors, which Boeing Program Manager for Commercial Crew John Mulholland said have been largely resolved.
Guy Norris's article Aviation Week article includes additional information (well worth creating a free account if you don't already have one). According to the primary source, the schedule shift is driven by supply chain production delays, a production flaw that scrapped the lower dome of the crew module pressure shell for Spacecraft 2, and issues with qualification tests of minor components.

Source: Boeing Delays CST-100, Still Targets 2018 ISS Mission
« Last Edit: 10/12/2016 04:01 am by Navier–Stokes »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #274 on: 10/11/2016 10:44 pm »
Don't copy and paste copyrighted material folks. Not least material behind a paywall on Aviation Week.
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Offline whitelancer64

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #275 on: 10/11/2016 11:04 pm »
Boeing delays Starliner again, casting doubt on commercial flights in 2018
Quote
Boeing's second delay appears to have been caused by supply chain issues and other factors, which Boeing Program Manager for Commercial Crew John Mulholland said have been largely resolved.
Guy Norris's article Aviation Week article includes additional information (well worth creating a free account if you don't already have one). According to the primary source, the schedule shift is driven by supply chain production delays, a production flaw that scrapped the lower dome of the crew module pressure shell for Spacecraft 2, and issues with qualification tests fof minor components.

Source: Boeing Delays CST-100, Still Targets 2018 ISS Mission

Further information also available here:

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/10/11/boeing-delays-cst100-starliner-operational-flight-december-2018/
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #276 on: 10/11/2016 11:11 pm »
Boeing delays Starliner again, casting doubt on commercial flights in 2018
Quote
Boeing's second delay appears to have been caused by supply chain issues and other factors, which Boeing Program Manager for Commercial Crew John Mulholland said have been largely resolved.
Guy Norris's article Aviation Week article includes additional information (well worth creating a free account if you don't already have one). According to the primary source, the schedule shift is driven by supply chain production delays, a production flaw that scrapped the lower dome of the crew module pressure shell for Spacecraft 2, and issues with qualification tests fof minor components.

Source: Boeing Delays CST-100, Still Targets 2018 ISS Mission

Further information also available here:

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/10/11/boeing-delays-cst100-starliner-operational-flight-december-2018/
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Offline savuporo

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #277 on: 10/12/2016 03:31 am »
With the current rate of slip of about a month for every two months, BOTE extrapolation says these things wont fly before 2020. Glad they extended ISS for a bit, although ESA hasnt voted on this yet.
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #278 on: 10/12/2016 06:13 pm »
From Jeff Foust on twitter: Asked Gerst during break on access to Soyuz post-2018 for NASA; he said it’s not being discussed, still confident comm’l crew ready in ’18.

With the Boeing slip, this seems to indicate that SpaceX is still on track for 2018.

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #279 on: 10/12/2016 06:32 pm »
Even is SpaceX slips DM-1 to late 2017 (which is probably likely) they could possibly get certified by mid-2018 (if nothing goes wrong with either demo flight).  I don't understand how NASA could hold off on buying more Soyuz seats unless they really expect SpaceX to be certified before Boeing.  You can't count on flying an actual crew rotation mission in December when the first test flight of the vehicle is in June.

 

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