Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 407966 times)

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #220 on: 08/17/2016 05:37 pm »
Is the issue with Nasa and densified propellant related to the late loading of the prop and they don't want their people sitting on top during fueling?

The point is that with regards to flying crew on rockets NASA doesn't like to change the way they have done things for the past four+ decades. Most, if not all, of their experience is with the crew getting aboard a fully fueled vehicle. And then comes SpaceX proposing to do it the other way around. Given how risk adverse NASA in general, and the astronaut office and ASAP in particular are, it is no surprise they feel uncomfortable with this new approach to things.

And my guess is that, prior to prop densification, NASA might have thought that they could convince SpaceX to load props and only then insert the crew, but what with the densified prop requirement to launch as shortly after fueling as possible, this just can't be done?  So NASA has two choices -- don't launch their crews on Falcon, or get comfortable with prop loading while the crew is inside the spacecraft?

Am I apprehending this issue correctly?  :)

Or SpaceX could decide not not to use densified propellant on commercial crew flights, I would imagine.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2016 05:38 pm by yg1968 »

Offline jak Kennedy

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #221 on: 08/17/2016 05:41 pm »
I was under the impression that manned rockets are also being topped off while the crews are aboard before liftoff. If so then fuel is always being pumped aboard although at a much lower rate. Am I correct in this assumption?
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Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #222 on: 08/17/2016 07:01 pm »
I was under the impression that manned rockets are also being topped off while the crews are aboard before liftoff. If so then fuel is always being pumped aboard although at a much lower rate. Am I correct in this assumption?
No, you're correct.  The Shuttle topped off until right before launch, when the top ET access arm would rotate away.  I don't know about earlier manned rockets, though.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #223 on: 08/17/2016 07:34 pm »
I was under the impression that manned rockets are also being topped off while the crews are aboard before liftoff. If so then fuel is always being pumped aboard although at a much lower rate. Am I correct in this assumption?
No, you're correct.  The Shuttle topped off until right before launch, when the top ET access arm would rotate away.  I don't know about earlier manned rockets, though.

I'm pretty certain that all manned rockets have had a top-off operation until a few minutes before launch, with the exception of the Titan II, which was loaded with room-temperature hypergolics which didn't tend to boil off...
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #224 on: 09/01/2016 09:43 pm »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf

Offline Lar

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #225 on: 09/01/2016 10:54 pm »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf

IIRC water landing for D2 wasn't SpaceX's idea...
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Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #226 on: 09/02/2016 07:17 am »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf

IIRC water landing for D2 wasn't SpaceX's idea...
Correct. D2 was to land on land under parachutes with propulsive assistence for cushioning purposes. But NASA didn't agree with the propulsive assistence bit. NASA wanted full parachute landings, something SpaceX cannot do on land, for lack of a alternative cushioning system (like the one CST-100 has). As such, the only other option for doing full parachute landings is at sea. NASA is in fact so concerned about a hard parachute landing for D2 that SpaceX had to add a fourth parachute to it's earth landing system setup. We've probably all seen the recent tests of those, with more yet to follow.

So basiscally, this is NASA causing this particular delay to the D2 portion of CCP.

The delays for CST-100 come from a changed launch environment (from 'clean' booster to one sporting 1 or 2 solids) and the need to adjust for that. The change in booster configuration resulted from the on-going overweight issue that's been hampering CST-100 development for quite some time now.
« Last Edit: 09/02/2016 07:21 am by woods170 »

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #227 on: 09/02/2016 07:24 am »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf

IIRC water landing for D2 wasn't SpaceX's idea...
Correct. D2 was to land on land under parachutes with propulsive assistence for cushioning purposes. But NASA didn't agree. NASA wanted full parachute landings, something SpaceX cannot do on land, for lack of a alternative cushioning system (like the one CST-100 has). As such, the only other way of doing full parachute landings is at sea.
So basiscally, this is NASA causing this particular delay to the D2 portion of CCP.
The delays for CST-100 come from a changed launch environment (from 'clean' booster to one sporting 1 or 2 solids) and the need to adjust for that. The change in booster configuration resulted from the on-going overweight issue that's been hampering CST-100 development for quite some time now.

Only partly true in the case of SpaceX, aborts will land in the water so D2 has to be designed for that. However, aborts are assumed to be rare so a small additional risk on a water landing might be acceptable, but a similar additional risk every flight is too great.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #228 on: 09/02/2016 07:45 am »
My understanding was that CST-100 always was to launch with one SRB. Weight issues caused the possible addition of a second SRB but they said they want to get back to one SRB.

SpaceX landing under parachutes with propulsive cushioning was suggested by SpaceX and they mentioned that propulsion failing would make the landing as hard as Soyuz landing, but not threaten the astronauts life. As hard as Soyuz with or without those thruster pods, I don't know. Those pods have failed occasionally and crew survived though with some injuries. I remember SpaceX claimed no injuries though hard when propulsion fails.

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #229 on: 09/02/2016 08:31 am »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf

IIRC water landing for D2 wasn't SpaceX's idea...
Correct. D2 was to land on land under parachutes with propulsive assistence for cushioning purposes. But NASA didn't agree. NASA wanted full parachute landings, something SpaceX cannot do on land, for lack of a alternative cushioning system (like the one CST-100 has). As such, the only other way of doing full parachute landings is at sea.
So basiscally, this is NASA causing this particular delay to the D2 portion of CCP.
The delays for CST-100 come from a changed launch environment (from 'clean' booster to one sporting 1 or 2 solids) and the need to adjust for that. The change in booster configuration resulted from the on-going overweight issue that's been hampering CST-100 development for quite some time now.

Only partly true in the case of SpaceX, aborts will land in the water so D2 has to be designed for that. However, aborts are assumed to be rare so a small additional risk on a water landing might be acceptable, but a similar additional risk every flight is too great.
Thanks for the addition. Your reasoning is sound IMO. A pad abort or in-flight abort would result in landing at sea, but the crew would be there for only a limited amount of time given that rescue and recovery teams are nearby.
However, in case of an off-nominal water landing upon return from orbit the crew could be faced with a Gemini-8 scenario. In that case it wouldn't do at all for D2 to take on large amounts of water, hence the concern from NASA. But still, this scenario only came into play when NASA threw the propulsive land-landing options out the window.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #230 on: 09/02/2016 03:33 pm »
My understanding was that CST-100 always was to launch with one SRB. Weight issues caused the possible addition of a second SRB but they said they want to get back to one SRB.

SpaceX landing under parachutes with propulsive cushioning was suggested by SpaceX and they mentioned that propulsion failing would make the landing as hard as Soyuz landing, but not threaten the astronauts life. As hard as Soyuz with or without those thruster pods, I don't know. Those pods have failed occasionally and crew survived though with some injuries. I remember SpaceX claimed no injuries though hard when propulsion fails.

No, it's now 2 SRBs but even that was not enough as they had to find ways to cut down on the weight of the CST-100 Starliner.
« Last Edit: 09/03/2016 03:53 pm by yg1968 »

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #231 on: 09/02/2016 09:20 pm »
No, it's now 2 SRB but even that was not enough as they had to find ways to cut down on the weight of the CST-100 Starliner.

OK, thanks. But there was always at least one SRB in the mix, correct? So they would always had to size the LAS for SRB, not a major change in this by using two.

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #232 on: 09/03/2016 01:10 am »
Can SpaceX launch the F9FT without propellant densification and take the hit on performance?  It isn't like the latest version of the F9 needs it's full performance to put a DragonV2 into orbit. 
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Offline Lar

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #233 on: 09/03/2016 02:12 am »
Can SpaceX launch the F9FT without propellant densification and take the hit on performance?  It isn't like the latest version of the F9 needs it's full performance to put a DragonV2 into orbit. 
Are you thinking they might have to, if the fault is found to be densification related?  Or ?
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Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #234 on: 09/03/2016 03:31 am »
Can SpaceX launch the F9FT without propellant densification and take the hit on performance?  It isn't like the latest version of the F9 needs it's full performance to put a DragonV2 into orbit. 
Are you thinking they might have to, if the fault is found to be densification related?  Or ?

It is that currently SpaceX is planning to do propellant load after the astronauts are loaded on-board the F9.  From my understanding this sequence of having the astronauts load before propellant is loaded, is required because with densification the propellant has to be loaded very close to the launch window.

After this latest incident, I would hazard to guess that NASA is even less thrilled by the sequence of having the astronauts on-board during the propellant load. However if you remove densification then the astronauts can load after the propellant is loaded.  That was my thinking by asking if the latest version of the F9 can launch without densification as a extra safety measure for manned missions.  Even though everyone is fairly confident that the LAS would have pulled the Dragon off the stack in-time if their was a pad issue, however nobody really wants to test this theory. 
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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #235 on: 09/03/2016 05:59 am »
I'm not really sure which is safer. Loading the crew with the vehicle fully fueled puts a lot of people at risk. Vehicles have exploded after they have been fueled, although this is less likely to occur after propellant loading. The LAS can not be armed while loading the crew and thus the crew are not safe until the check out crew have left and the LAS armed.

However, loading the crew before fueling has the least risk for the closeout crew and the crew themselves. Once the closeout crew have left, the LAS can be armed and propellant loading commences.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #236 on: 09/03/2016 02:27 pm »
I'm not really sure which is safer. Loading the crew with the vehicle fully fueled puts a lot of people at risk. Vehicles have exploded after they have been fueled, although this is less likely to occur after propellant loading. The LAS can not be armed while loading the crew and thus the crew are not safe until the check out crew have left and the LAS armed.

However, loading the crew before fueling has the least risk for the closeout crew and the crew themselves. Once the closeout crew have left, the LAS can be armed and propellant loading commences.

I am really not arguing one way our another which is safer.  It is really more about what is NASA more comfortable with and traditionally on their crewed launched vehicles, the propellant was loaded and then the crewed boarded.  Which is the same sequence for the Atlas-V and CST-100, it would be the F9 and Dragon that would deviate from this. 

Which is why I asked the question about the F9 not using propellant densification for Dragon crewed launches.
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #237 on: 09/03/2016 04:15 pm »
If you trust your launch abort system, it makes sense to me to load the propellents after. Get the crew safety in the vehicle and they'll be okay. I wouldn't want people caught on the pad, but not in the vehicle when something went wrong because then the launch abort system is useless.

Offline Brovane

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #238 on: 09/03/2016 05:23 pm »
If you trust your launch abort system, it makes sense to me to load the propellents after. Get the crew safety in the vehicle and they'll be okay. I wouldn't want people caught on the pad, but not in the vehicle when something went wrong because then the launch abort system is useless.

The loading of propellant after the crew was loaded was noted as a risk by NASA and is noted in the GAO report as a risk.  As you can see from below, SpaceX obviously disagrees because it noted  exactly what you did, that by loading propellant afterwards you minimize personnel around a fully fueled rocket.  However I suspect that after this latest incident, NASA is going to have even more reason to want the crew loaded after the propellant and NASA is the customer.   As I noted above I am not trying to argue one way our another, which way is safer.

Which brings me back to my original question, Can SpaceX simply launch the F9 without densified propellant and make one of their most important  customer's happy?  Does anyone want to see the Commercial crew program delayed because SpaceX and NASA are arguing about propellant loading sequences? 

As a IT project manager I have dealt with several times during projects that sometimes you can have disagreements about the best method for a certain task.  At some point it is better to just accept a change that is being pushed by a key customer/resource etc. regardless of the merit as long as it doesn't alter the outcome.  You basically compromise in the interests of project so you can keep project on track and on schedule.  Even though you know you are correct, but you accept the change and move on. 

http://gao.gov/assets/680/676179.pdf

Quote
SpaceX’s launch vehicle, the Falcon 9, has
been upgraded to improve its performance
by increasing engine thrust and using densified
propellants. Among the risks associated with the
upgraded vehicle is SpaceX’s planned concept of
operations for launching using densified
propellants. SpaceX plans to load crew into the
Dragon and then fuel the rocket to keep the
densified propellants chilled. The program has
reported that loading the crew prior to the
propellant is a potential safety risk. SpaceX
stated that its approach will improve safety
by minimizing personnel exposure to a fueled
rocket. It has also identified safety and hazard
controls to mitigate any risks associated with
this approach.
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Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #239 on: 09/03/2016 05:50 pm »
More delays:

Quote from: OIG
The Commercial Crew Program continues to face multiple challenges that will likely delay the first routine flight carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS until late 2018 – more than 3 years after NASA’s original 2015 goal. While past funding shortfalls have contributed to the delay, technical challenges with the contractors’ spacecraft designs are now driving the schedule slippages. For Boeing, these include issues relating to the effects of vibrations generated during launch and challenges regarding vehicle mass. For SpaceX, delays resulted from a change in capsule design to enable a water-based rather than ground-based landing and related concerns about the capsule taking on excessive water.

https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf

For those who haven't read it yet, this report has complete lists of the Boeing and SpaceX milestones (including those added after the original contract) as of June 2016 with their original and expected completion dates (so the dates are already off pretty badly a few months later, the report still shows a late 2016 date for SpaceX uncrewed flight).  There is also a complete table of NASA's payments for Soyuz seats.

A few things from the report:
Quote
Boeing’s CCtCap contract initially included 23 milestones ranging from the establishment of an original requirements baseline to the final vehicle certification. Within the first 2 years of the contract, Boeing and NASA modified the contract to separate three of the milestones into multiple segments, replace one milestone, and add seven milestones related to NASA-imposed software upgrades, landing qualification tests, and hardware modifications.18 These modifications increased the number of milestones to 34 and the total contract value by approximately $46 million. As of June 2016, Boeing had completed 15 of the 34 milestones (44 percent) necessary to achieve certification and was scheduled to receive up to $1.067 billion (25 percent) of the total contract value in payment.

Quote
SpaceX’s CCtCap contract initially included 18 milestones ranging from establishment of the original requirements baseline to final vehicle certification. During the first year of the contract, SpaceX and NASA agreed to separate SpaceX’s Propulsion Module Testing and Critical Design Review into multiple segments, which increased the total milestones to 21.20 As of June 2016, SpaceX had completed eight milestones (38 percent), five less than planned under the original schedule, and received $469 million (18 percent) of the total contract value.

Quote
NASA Program officials anticipate SpaceX will encounter additional delays on the path to certification. For example, in January 2015, the tunnel that provides a passageway for astronauts and cargo between the Dragon and the ISS was reported to have cracked during the heat treatment phase of the manufacturing process. As a result, SpaceX delayed qualification testing by approximately one year to better align the tests as SpaceX moves toward certification. SpaceX has also experienced ongoing issues with stress fractures in turbopumps that must be resolved prior to flight.

Quote
Propulsive Descent Test Complete. This test of the Pad Abort Test Vehicle to perform controlled propulsive burns in a dynamic environment was completed in December 2015 after a 3-month delay.
I guess this was the tethered testing, was never really sure what this milestone meant.

 

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