Author Topic: Why some commercial companies are more successful?  (Read 9809 times)

Offline mgfitter

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I was wondering if some of the experts here might be able to share their thoughts and insights on the question of why some of the commercial companies have been more successful than others?

What do the pro's here on NSF think are the biggest factors that make the greatest difference? Budget? Staffing levels? Technology selection? QA? Vertical integration (business)? Politics?

And could I ask each person to explain WHY?

-MG.

Offline nadreck

Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #1 on: 05/30/2015 09:42 pm »
I was wondering if some of the experts here might be able to share their thoughts and insights on the question of why some of the commercial companies have been more successful than others?

What do the pro's here on NSF think are the biggest factors that make the greatest difference? Budget? Staffing levels? Technology selection? QA? Vertical integration (business)? Politics?

And could I ask each person to explain WHY?

-MG.

All those have some effect, I think corporate culture makes a bigger difference, as does luck, not the "toss heads 32 times in a row" luck, but the luck in early successes being parleyed into a moat that protects the profitability of the company and making competing against it much more difficult than it was to set up the company. One companies moat is another companies barrier to entry.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #2 on: 05/30/2015 10:22 pm »
The most important thing is to understand what your customer wants, and then give it to them.

If you can't find a customer that's willing to pay you money for a product or service, then you don't have a company - regardless the staffing levels or technology.

Next you also have to understand how to make decisions on how you will deliver the product or service, and that's when the staffing and technology part comes in.  Those are important too, but #1 is having something customers are going to willingly give you money for.
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Offline Rebel44

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #3 on: 05/30/2015 10:29 pm »
When I look at story of SpaceX, they got following things:
*luck (got NASA contract just as they were about to be bankrupt)

*Smart management decisions like making almost whole rocket inhouse allowed them to control the cost)

*Flexibility - they changed course of the company several times (abandonment of Falcon 1 etc.) when there was a good reason for the change.

*Inspiring both employees and people outside the company (Company target being making humans multiplanetary species is much more motivating, than company target of increasing profit of shareholders of tax-dodging company).

there are many other reasons, why some companies succeed and some fail.

Online meekGee

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #4 on: 05/31/2015 01:00 am »
There's also this bit about how clever the leader is.

Musk is uniquely clever.  He turned a lot of common wisdom on its head, and was right about it.

You can have a company that's doing all the right things from a corporate point of view, but from a purely technical PoV, chooses the wrong direction - and it will lose.

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Offline Impaler

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #5 on: 05/31/2015 01:53 am »
#1 Factor:  Adequate Capitalization

Most businesses of ANY kind fail because they burn through all seed money before reaching a sustainable revenue stream.  People are generally too optimistic about how quickly revenue can grow when a new business venture is begun.  Most of the ultimate success of failure is present at the start and not due to failure in execution of the business plan.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #6 on: 05/31/2015 03:35 am »
#1 Factor:  Adequate Capitalization

Most businesses of ANY kind fail because they burn through all seed money before reaching a sustainable revenue stream.  People are generally too optimistic about how quickly revenue can grow when a new business venture is begun.  Most of the ultimate success of failure is present at the start and not due to failure in execution of the business plan.

I agree that this matters a lot, at least in the early phases. In my company's case we started it with almost no seed money to burn through (less than $10k), so we've had to bootstrap from there to get the company to a point where we could try raising money to go after a product (hopefully soon). I definitely wouldn't recommend that approach to anyone who doesn't have a really high stress tolerance.

But I'd also say that in addition to money, picking the right corner of the industry to focus on, a problem that can be profitably solved within an amount of money you can realistically access, and making good decisions all matter too.

~Jon

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #7 on: 05/31/2015 01:14 pm »
Yeah, capitalization helps a lot (it's critical), but you can always say a company failed because they ran out of money. That doesn't really explain why they failed. Like Jon said, even a small amount of starting capital can be enough for a company which is competent and clever and picks the right problems to solve and customers to go after.

SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all. They starte off with something they could actually accomplish given their starting capital: small launch using fairly basic kerolox engines. Beal Aerospace was much more ambitious at first (perhaps with similar initial capitalization?) but never succeeded.
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Offline Oli

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #8 on: 05/31/2015 01:38 pm »
What determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.

SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.

It's a lot. If they'd had to pay 10%+ on bank loans they probably would have failed.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 01:40 pm by Oli »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #9 on: 05/31/2015 01:40 pm »
What determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.

SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.

It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.
Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.
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Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #10 on: 05/31/2015 02:05 pm »
What determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.

SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.

It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.
Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.
Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #11 on: 05/31/2015 02:09 pm »
What determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.

SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.

It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.
Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.
Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.
Of course. But 1) Musk wasn't a billionaire and 2) having a billionaire's backing is not sufficient to ensure success. Blue Origin is well-heeled but miles behind SpaceX. But Blue Origin looks like a big success compared to other billionaire-backed ventures. Andrew Beal is a billionaire with much more money than Musk, but Beal Aerospace failed. And witness Stratolaunch. Neat plane, but it may never launch anything. Actually, I'd say that being a billionaire's "plaything" is likely to mean you don't go very far compared to if the backer if full-in and needs the company to succeed.

So I'd say one of the main determinants of success is whether the company is hungry, whether they /need/ to succeed. And sometimes being well-capitalized can actually undermine that. In SpaceX's case, that didn't happen because Musk had poured all his assets into SpaceX (and Tesla) and at one point had essentially no liquid assets. He was as "hungry" as every business that starts from scratch. (Although he had excellent Silicon Valley connections.)

So having to start from nothing and have your founder be hungry might be better than being a billionaire's mere plaything.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 02:21 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #12 on: 05/31/2015 02:23 pm »
What determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.

SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.

It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.
Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.
Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.
Of course. But 1) Musk wasn't a billionaire and 2) having a billionaire's backing is not sufficient to ensure success. Blue Origin is well-heeled but miles behind SpaceX. Andrew Beal is a billionaire with much more money than Musk, but Beal Aerospace failed. And witness Stratolaunch. Neat plane, but it may never launch anything. Actually, I'd say that being a billionaire's "plaything" is likely to mean you don't go very far compared to if the backer if full-in and needs the company to succeed.

So I'd say one of the main determinants of success is whether the company is hungry, whether they /need/ to succeed. And sometimes being well-capitalized can actually undermine that. In SpaceX's case, that didn't happen because Musk had poured all his assets into SpaceX (and Tesla) and at one point had essentially no liquid assets. He was as "hungry" as every business that starts from scratch.

So having to start from nothing and have your founder be hungry may in fact be better than being a billionaire's mere plaything.
All of which doesn't address my point that most companies actually start using loans which was refuting your earlier opinion that using loans is "dumb."

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #13 on: 05/31/2015 02:25 pm »
Not what I said. Using loans isn't dumb. Using loans with interest rate of 10%+ is dumb*. Original context is everything. :)

Unless you /plan/ on going bankrupt.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 02:31 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #14 on: 05/31/2015 04:03 pm »
Capital is key, always, but so is good engineering. 

Consider the company that occupied McGregor before SpaceX.  Beal Aerospace.  Andrew Beal had capital, and lots of it.  He flung it at a giant pressure-fed rocket that would have used giant ablative engines burning hydrogen peroxide and kerosene.  Composite tanks and structures were also part of the plan.  Six tonnes to GTO.  All of it was bold and interesting, but the engineering may have fallen short.  Beal tested a battleship version of his giant, 800 Klbf engine, but that was only an upper stage engine.  The first stage engine would have needed to produce 3,000 Klbf thrust, requiring massive additional development money just as the commercial launch market was collapsing.

SpaceX, basically, made better engineering choices from the outset.  The key first choice was to go with a smaller turbopump engine (derived in part from an already-existing experimental engine) using conventional propellants.  Southern California had plenty of ex-rocket engineers from shuttered or declining rocket factories who already knew this technology inside-out.  Turbopump engines could be clustered, which could not be done with pressure fed engines.  Aluminum tanks were used, eliminating the challenge of developing an unproven technology.  And so on. 

Kistler was an example of a company with a non-standard idea that made the engineering challenges more difficult, but that also had funding issues.

Amroc had some money, but was also trying to develop new technology (hybrid motors).

Roton had no money and a crazy idea.

And so on.

You could go all the way back to Orbital Sciences to find another commercial launch company that succeeded in large part because it made sound choices that both stayed within the bounds of the proven and within the bounds of its available funding. 

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 04:13 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #15 on: 05/31/2015 04:26 pm »
I agree that this matters a lot, at least in the early phases. In my company's case we started it with almost no seed money to burn through (less than $10k), so we've had to bootstrap from there to get the company to a point where we could try raising money to go after a product (hopefully soon). I definitely wouldn't recommend that approach to anyone who doesn't have a really high stress tolerance.

I would suggest that having a real or perceived lack of full capitalization is a good thing, since that forces everyone to review their needs and be innovative in how they meet them.

For SpaceX, I remember that they were able to acquire a number of infrastructure assets for pennies on the dollar, helping to stretch their early budget.  And it looks like they still try to pick up bargains where they can.

Quote
But I'd also say that in addition to money, picking the right corner of the industry to focus on, a problem that can be profitably solved within an amount of money you can realistically access, and making good decisions all matter too.

Well said.  It's that tricky combination of finding the underserved part of the market, plus the underserved part of the market that can be addressed within the capabilities you have.  Which means you have to not only understand your customer very well, but yourself (i.e. your company) too.

And fortuitous coincidence, for both good and bad, is always an unplanned component...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online meekGee

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #16 on: 05/31/2015 04:38 pm »
Capital is key, always, but so is good engineering. 

Consider the company that occupied McGregor before SpaceX.  Beal Aerospace.  Andrew Beal had capital, and lots of it.  He flung it at a giant pressure-fed rocket that would have used giant ablative engines burning hydrogen peroxide and kerosene.  Composite tanks and structures were also part of the plan.  Six tonnes to GTO.  All of it was bold and interesting, but the engineering may have fallen short.  Beal tested a battleship version of his giant, 800 Klbf engine, but that was only an upper stage engine.  The first stage engine would have needed to produce 3,000 Klbf thrust, requiring massive additional development money just as the commercial launch market was collapsing.

SpaceX, basically, made better engineering choices from the outset.  The key first choice was to go with a smaller turbopump engine (derived in part from an already-existing experimental engine) using conventional propellants.  Southern California had plenty of ex-rocket engineers from shuttered or declining rocket factories who already knew this technology inside-out.  Turbopump engines could be clustered, which could not be done with pressure fed engines.  Aluminum tanks were used, eliminating the challenge of developing an unproven technology.  And so on. 

Kistler was an example of a company with a non-standard idea that made the engineering challenges more difficult, but that also had funding issues.

Amroc had some money, but was also trying to develop new technology (hybrid motors).

Roton had no money and a crazy idea.

And so on.

You could go all the way back to Orbital Sciences to find another commercial launch company that succeeded in large part because it made sound choices that both stayed within the bounds of the proven and within the bounds of its available funding. 

 - Ed Kyle

Very much so.

Having funds to work with is necessary, but is the LEAST of what made SpaceX successful.   Many other companies before it (and after it) had money, so clearly that's not what makes SpaceX unique.   Engineering choices, and business choices - all correct in retrospect - that made a difference:

- Start with an expendable rocket (and not a reusable suborbital system)
- Scale up from F1 to F5 to F9 with the same engine
- Vertical design and manufacturing integration
- Kero/Lox, then change to Metha/Lox
- VTVL and capsule
- Flight testing reusability using revenue flights
- Having a substantial goal beyond financial survival
- Design and operate your own comm constellation
- Emphasis on per-kg cost, to the extreme extent of allowing a large penalty for RTLS
- Barges as either an intermediate step and a means to catch center FH cores.  Simple barges.

So many places where bad decisions can lead you astray.  Which brings us to point #11:
- Keeping the plans agile while keeping an eye on the goal.

« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 06:19 pm by meekGee »
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Offline Danderman

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #17 on: 05/31/2015 06:41 pm »
#1 Factor:  Adequate Capitalization

Most businesses of ANY kind fail because they burn through all seed money before reaching a sustainable revenue stream.  People are generally too optimistic about how quickly revenue can grow when a new business venture is begun.  Most of the ultimate success of failure is present at the start and not due to failure in execution of the business plan.

Another way of looking at this is to get to revenue quickly, which is what Nanoracks did.

Most startups don't have the cash up front to develop their system to the point where they can get to revenue, and so are dependent on downstream investors. This is a bad thing because the  initial investors want to get a bigger share of the equity since they bear the greatest risk, but they are totally dependent on the downstream investors, who want a big piece since the enterprise depends on them.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #18 on: 05/31/2015 08:59 pm »
 In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.
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Offline Rebel44

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #19 on: 05/31/2015 09:08 pm »
In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.

SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 09:11 pm by Rebel44 »

Online meekGee

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #20 on: 05/31/2015 09:41 pm »
In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.

They were a "plank's constant" away from getting a somewhat worse deal on the next financing round.

Start ups raise financing multiple times before turning cash positive.  Both SpaceX and Tesla had very good outlooks.  They actually had a product that was on the right track, and a market.  If they had needed more money, they'd have gotten it.  Compared with other start ups, their trajectories are phenomenal.

"Luck" was just in the details here - how much, how early, etc.  Nothing fundamental.  There isn't a start-up in the world that doesn't have hair-raising "how we almost died" stories.
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Offline Oli

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #21 on: 05/31/2015 10:14 pm »
Not what I said. Using loans isn't dumb. Using loans with interest rate of 10%+ is dumb*. Original context is everything. :)

Unless you /plan/ on going bankrupt.

It has nothing to do with being dumb, you take what you can get. The average start up business loan is probably around 10%. I seriously doubt any space start up planning to build/launch rockets would get better conditions, quite the opposite. We're talking about a stagnant market with excess capacity and government-subsidized players. Probably the worst investment ever.

Without Musk being very wealthy at the time SpaceX would not exist today, that's obvious.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 10:17 pm by Oli »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #22 on: 05/31/2015 11:54 pm »
XCOR exists and it started out with basically no money. It is possible, it just slows you way down.

And 10%+ interest rate is exorbitant. I literally can get better on my credit card. You don't try to build capital-intensive rockets with that interest rate, you get money in other ways such as SBIR grants and maybe some DARPA grants. Once you have a little to work on, then you can gather investors and lower interest rate loans.

There are other ways to be financed than debt financing. As I said, trying to build rockets with a +10% interest rate is dumb.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2015 11:54 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #23 on: 06/01/2015 12:05 am »
Also, larger small business loans nowadays have interest rates in the 6-8% range. 10% today is ridiculous. Maybe +10% makes sense in the late 1990s, but not in the early 2000s when SpaceX started.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #24 on: 06/01/2015 01:10 am »
Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.

No joke. This is why I root for XCOR even though they're taking longer than expected. They're likely going to be the first example of a successful space transportation startup that was bootstrapped without any billionaire sugar-daddy funding them.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #25 on: 06/01/2015 01:23 am »
XCOR exists and it started out with basically no money. It is possible, it just slows you way down.

And 10%+ interest rate is exorbitant. I literally can get better on my credit card.

Can you get enough cheap credit to cover payroll for even a small startup for a month?

Quote
You don't try to build capital-intensive rockets with that interest rate, you get money in other ways such as SBIR grants and maybe some DARPA grants. Once you have a little to work on, then you can gather investors and lower interest rate loans.

It's really easy to say this when you haven't tried. Admittedly both of our credit lines are right around or just under 10%, but we've had to take far worse occasionally. The problem is that typically when you're in the bootstrapping off of R&D contracts mode you don't have a lot in tangible assets that can be used to back the loans, and you look like a horrible credit risk, and if you're up to even a half dozen people you end up needing credit lines in the $50-100k range due to the lumpiness of payments on many contracts. I'm sorry Chris, you have no idea what it's like trying to keep a bootstrapped startup alive, even when things are growing and going reasonably well.

When the option is pay high interest rates or go out of business (and possibly go bankrupt because you're all-in on the company), you take the high interest rate loan and just try to make recurrences less likely in the future. That's not ideal, but it's not dumb.

~Jon

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #26 on: 06/01/2015 01:56 am »
In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.

SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.

By which you mean to imply that SpaceX would have died without that NASA contract - this is false, they would have become a space tourism company as that's what they were already pivoting towards with the UK build Magic Dragon and the Falcon 5.

It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #27 on: 06/01/2015 12:23 pm »
XCOR exists and it started out with basically no money. It is possible, it just slows you way down.

And 10%+ interest rate is exorbitant. I literally can get better on my credit card.

Can you get enough cheap credit to cover payroll for even a small startup for a month?

Quote
You don't try to build capital-intensive rockets with that interest rate, you get money in other ways such as SBIR grants and maybe some DARPA grants. Once you have a little to work on, then you can gather investors and lower interest rate loans.

It's really easy to say this when you haven't tried. Admittedly both of our credit lines are right around or just under 10%, but we've had to take far worse occasionally. The problem is that typically when you're in the bootstrapping off of R&D contracts mode you don't have a lot in tangible assets that can be used to back the loans, and you look like a horrible credit risk, and if you're up to even a half dozen people you end up needing credit lines in the $50-100k range due to the lumpiness of payments on many contracts. I'm sorry Chris, you have no idea what it's like trying to keep a bootstrapped startup alive, even when things are growing and going reasonably well.

When the option is pay high interest rates or go out of business (and possibly go bankrupt because you're all-in on the company), you take the high interest rate loan and just try to make recurrences less likely in the future. That's not ideal, but it's not dumb.

~Jon
Jon, my point is that you can't take high-interest loans (which yes, I know a higher interest rate line of credit is required for payroll) and use that to develop very capital-intensive orbital rockets. Oli is right, SpaceX would've failed in that case. But smaller contracts can be dealt with using a line of credit as long as the overall amount of cash needed isn't too high. And I do know what it's like.

Rockets and infrastructure are capital-intensive, smaller grants are not as much. That's why I said what I said.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline nadreck

Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #28 on: 06/01/2015 03:41 pm »


It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.

Excuse me but that is bass ackwards for cronyism, there is no incentive for someone in a position of power in the public sector, to put bread back in the hand that fed them before. It makes sense instead for people who work in the public sector to line their nest with good will for organizations they may 'semi-retire' to. 
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline AncientU

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #29 on: 06/01/2015 04:11 pm »
In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.

SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.

By which you mean to imply that SpaceX would have died without that NASA contract - this is false, they would have become a space tourism company as that's what they were already pivoting towards with the UK build Magic Dragon and the Falcon 5.

It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.

Maybe he saw some potential worth investing in?  And some corresponding NASA need?
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #30 on: 06/01/2015 05:38 pm »
In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.

SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.

By which you mean to imply that SpaceX would have died without that NASA contract - this is false, they would have become a space tourism company as that's what they were already pivoting towards with the UK build Magic Dragon and the Falcon 5.

It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.

Maybe he saw some potential worth investing in?  And some corresponding NASA need?

Griffin was predisposed to building a Mars Direct architecture based around Ares-V and was less than thrilled to be "required" to continue to support the ISS (per Congress) and things like "Commercial" access. He didn't even seem interested in the "requirement" to go back to the Moon and as far as I could tell pretty much everything OTHER than Ares-V and a Mars Direct style system was forced on him by someone else.

Griffin was, IIRC all for dumping both the ISS and any support thereof, (including commercial resupply) as soon as practical but was prevented from doing so by Congressional action.

Randy
From The Amazing Catstronaut on the Black Arrow LV:
British physics, old chap. It's undignified to belch flames and effluvia all over the pad, what. A true gentlemen's orbital conveyance lifts itself into the air unostentatiously, with the minimum of spectacle and a modicum of grace. Not like our American cousins' launch vehicles, eh?

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #31 on: 06/01/2015 08:50 pm »
It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk.

I'm glad you highlight this, because it is a curious situation given the various pro & anti-commercial space positions Griffin has held over time.

Quote
I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.

As to the cronyism charge, are you saying that SpaceX was not the least costly solution available?  Because to prove cronyism you have to be able to show that there was a better choice available that was ignored, and it sure doesn't seem like - as of today - you could support such a claim.  Even at the time of the award the claim from NASA was that they wanted a new approach, and SpaceX certainly fit the bill.

But maybe SpaceX received more serious attention from NASA because of Griffin than they would have received otherwise considering how young they were, but then they ended up actually being as good as they said they could be?  That could be true.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #32 on: 06/01/2015 10:55 pm »
Nonsense, it was simple back scratching. Griffin has done consulting work for SpaceX since being administrator too. It's not rocket science.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #33 on: 06/01/2015 11:48 pm »
Nonsense, it was simple back scratching. Griffin has done consulting work for SpaceX since being administrator too. It's not rocket science.
So I guess you're "recipe for success" would include "make sure you slip a few study contracts on a regular basis to govt employees" ?

MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 2027?. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #34 on: 06/01/2015 11:59 pm »
At the time, it seemed Griffin was downright hostile to commercial space companies like SpaceX. Corruption is a serious charge, people to to jail for it. I don't think it's fair to make such claims so loosely.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #35 on: 06/01/2015 11:59 pm »
So I guess you're "recipe for success" would include "make sure you slip a few study contracts on a regular basis to govt employees" ?

It goes under the general heading of "lay of the land".
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Jim

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #36 on: 06/02/2015 12:05 am »

As to the cronyism charge, are you saying that SpaceX was not the least costly solution available?  Because to prove cronyism you have to be able to show that there was a better choice available that was ignored, and it sure doesn't seem like - as of today - you could support such a claim.  Even at the time of the award the claim from NASA was that they wanted a new approach, and SpaceX certainly fit the bill.

But maybe SpaceX received more serious attention from NASA because of Griffin than they would have received otherwise considering how young they were, but then they ended up actually being as good as they said they could be?  That could be true.

They were far from a solution at the time, they were unproven.
The better choice at the time would have been any of the various on new spacecraft on proven launch vehicles.
And no, Griffin had no say in the selection of Spacex

Online meekGee

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Re: Why some commercial companies are more successful?
« Reply #37 on: 06/02/2015 12:22 am »

So his rivals suck eggs, and wish for rockets to blow up. When they don't blow, they take the slow path to compete with him. Needless to say this is not an effective strategy.

All other space ventures of the past got sucked in to the aerospace cult and died as a result. Musk, locked out of that cult,  made a more successful cult they don't want to convert to, and they hate him for it, for it shows them up as addicts to dubious things. Even when things blow up, it's just another story to sell to backers with, as to why only he can do this. The other guys find this infuriating, as they save green stamps to get enough margin in budget to do small IRND on a RCS thruster or three lines of code in the guidance software.

FWIW, hope this answers your OP.

And that right there is the source of all the animosity.

Other startups were originally from the same core club, so were tolerated.

This guy OTOH looked different, spoke different - it rubbed everyone the wrong way.   I've seen aerospace execs speak at award dinners...   Big words, little ideas.

This new guy, he uses little words, he's self deprecating, and he's talking about colonizing Mars.

They talk about "the customer" even though in reality they wouldn't know a real customer if one took the elevator to the banquet room with them, and he's talking about "hours turn-around".

And so even now they are trying to run every which way but follow his tracks.  I guess one of the advantages of being out in the lead is that you don't have a disposition to not changing course.

« Last Edit: 06/02/2015 12:31 am by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

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