I was wondering if some of the experts here might be able to share their thoughts and insights on the question of why some of the commercial companies have been more successful than others?What do the pro's here on NSF think are the biggest factors that make the greatest difference? Budget? Staffing levels? Technology selection? QA? Vertical integration (business)? Politics?And could I ask each person to explain WHY?-MG.
#1 Factor: Adequate CapitalizationMost businesses of ANY kind fail because they burn through all seed money before reaching a sustainable revenue stream. People are generally too optimistic about how quickly revenue can grow when a new business venture is begun. Most of the ultimate success of failure is present at the start and not due to failure in execution of the business plan.
SpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.
What determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.Quote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 01:14 pmSpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.
Quote from: Oli on 05/31/2015 01:38 pmWhat determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.Quote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 01:14 pmSpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 01:40 pmQuote from: Oli on 05/31/2015 01:38 pmWhat determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.Quote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 01:14 pmSpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.
Quote from: rayleighscatter on 05/31/2015 02:05 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 01:40 pmQuote from: Oli on 05/31/2015 01:38 pmWhat determines success? If you look at return on investment, I doubt any of the prominent new space companies can already be considered a success.Quote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 01:14 pmSpaceX was well-capitalized, but that wasn't all.It's a lot. If they had to pay 10%+ on their bank loans it probably would have failed.Yeah, if they were dumb enough to put it all on their credit card, they probably wouldn't be smart enough to build an orbital rocket.Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.Of course. But 1) Musk wasn't a billionaire and 2) having a billionaire's backing is not sufficient to ensure success. Blue Origin is well-heeled but miles behind SpaceX. Andrew Beal is a billionaire with much more money than Musk, but Beal Aerospace failed. And witness Stratolaunch. Neat plane, but it may never launch anything. Actually, I'd say that being a billionaire's "plaything" is likely to mean you don't go very far compared to if the backer if full-in and needs the company to succeed.So I'd say one of the main determinants of success is whether the company is hungry, whether they /need/ to succeed. And sometimes being well-capitalized can actually undermine that. In SpaceX's case, that didn't happen because Musk had poured all his assets into SpaceX (and Tesla) and at one point had essentially no liquid assets. He was as "hungry" as every business that starts from scratch.So having to start from nothing and have your founder be hungry may in fact be better than being a billionaire's mere plaything.
I agree that this matters a lot, at least in the early phases. In my company's case we started it with almost no seed money to burn through (less than $10k), so we've had to bootstrap from there to get the company to a point where we could try raising money to go after a product (hopefully soon). I definitely wouldn't recommend that approach to anyone who doesn't have a really high stress tolerance.
But I'd also say that in addition to money, picking the right corner of the industry to focus on, a problem that can be profitably solved within an amount of money you can realistically access, and making good decisions all matter too.
Capital is key, always, but so is good engineering. Consider the company that occupied McGregor before SpaceX. Beal Aerospace. Andrew Beal had capital, and lots of it. He flung it at a giant pressure-fed rocket that would have used giant ablative engines burning hydrogen peroxide and kerosene. Composite tanks and structures were also part of the plan. Six tonnes to GTO. All of it was bold and interesting, but the engineering may have fallen short. Beal tested a battleship version of his giant, 800 Klbf engine, but that was only an upper stage engine. The first stage engine would have needed to produce 3,000 Klbf thrust, requiring massive additional development money just as the commercial launch market was collapsing.SpaceX, basically, made better engineering choices from the outset. The key first choice was to go with a smaller turbopump engine (derived in part from an already-existing experimental engine) using conventional propellants. Southern California had plenty of ex-rocket engineers from shuttered or declining rocket factories who already knew this technology inside-out. Turbopump engines could be clustered, which could not be done with pressure fed engines. Aluminum tanks were used, eliminating the challenge of developing an unproven technology. And so on. Kistler was an example of a company with a non-standard idea that made the engineering challenges more difficult, but that also had funding issues.Amroc had some money, but was also trying to develop new technology (hybrid motors).Roton had no money and a crazy idea.And so on.You could go all the way back to Orbital Sciences to find another commercial launch company that succeeded in large part because it made sound choices that both stayed within the bounds of the proven and within the bounds of its available funding. - Ed Kyle
In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.
Not what I said. Using loans isn't dumb. Using loans with interest rate of 10%+ is dumb*. Original context is everything. Unless you /plan/ on going bankrupt.
Not every business can start as a billionaire's plaything. Some actually have to start from nothing and build up.
XCOR exists and it started out with basically no money. It is possible, it just slows you way down.And 10%+ interest rate is exorbitant. I literally can get better on my credit card.
You don't try to build capital-intensive rockets with that interest rate, you get money in other ways such as SBIR grants and maybe some DARPA grants. Once you have a little to work on, then you can gather investors and lower interest rate loans.
Quote from: Nomadd on 05/31/2015 08:59 pm In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 05/31/2015 11:54 pmXCOR exists and it started out with basically no money. It is possible, it just slows you way down.And 10%+ interest rate is exorbitant. I literally can get better on my credit card. Can you get enough cheap credit to cover payroll for even a small startup for a month?QuoteYou don't try to build capital-intensive rockets with that interest rate, you get money in other ways such as SBIR grants and maybe some DARPA grants. Once you have a little to work on, then you can gather investors and lower interest rate loans.It's really easy to say this when you haven't tried. Admittedly both of our credit lines are right around or just under 10%, but we've had to take far worse occasionally. The problem is that typically when you're in the bootstrapping off of R&D contracts mode you don't have a lot in tangible assets that can be used to back the loans, and you look like a horrible credit risk, and if you're up to even a half dozen people you end up needing credit lines in the $50-100k range due to the lumpiness of payments on many contracts. I'm sorry Chris, you have no idea what it's like trying to keep a bootstrapped startup alive, even when things are growing and going reasonably well.When the option is pay high interest rates or go out of business (and possibly go bankrupt because you're all-in on the company), you take the high interest rate loan and just try to make recurrences less likely in the future. That's not ideal, but it's not dumb.~Jon
It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.
Quote from: Rebel44 on 05/31/2015 09:08 pmQuote from: Nomadd on 05/31/2015 08:59 pm In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.By which you mean to imply that SpaceX would have died without that NASA contract - this is false, they would have become a space tourism company as that's what they were already pivoting towards with the UK build Magic Dragon and the Falcon 5.It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.
Quote from: QuantumG on 06/01/2015 01:56 amQuote from: Rebel44 on 05/31/2015 09:08 pmQuote from: Nomadd on 05/31/2015 08:59 pm In Musk's case, success was determined by the equivalent of a butterfly sneeze. Tesla and SpaceX were both a Planck constant from going under in 2008 before a few investors bailed them out. Don't count out luck. He didn't build his companies or go from broke to being worth $13 billion in seven years by luck, but he did need it to survive.SpaceX was saved by NASA contract.By which you mean to imply that SpaceX would have died without that NASA contract - this is false, they would have become a space tourism company as that's what they were already pivoting towards with the UK build Magic Dragon and the Falcon 5.It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk. I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.Maybe he saw some potential worth investing in? And some corresponding NASA need?
It's also worth noting that the contract which saved SpaceX came from a NASA administrator who was a former consultant for Elon Musk.
I'm not sure why people keep bringing it up like it's something to be proud of.. it was obvious cronyism.
Nonsense, it was simple back scratching. Griffin has done consulting work for SpaceX since being administrator too. It's not rocket science.
So I guess you're "recipe for success" would include "make sure you slip a few study contracts on a regular basis to govt employees" ?
As to the cronyism charge, are you saying that SpaceX was not the least costly solution available? Because to prove cronyism you have to be able to show that there was a better choice available that was ignored, and it sure doesn't seem like - as of today - you could support such a claim. Even at the time of the award the claim from NASA was that they wanted a new approach, and SpaceX certainly fit the bill.But maybe SpaceX received more serious attention from NASA because of Griffin than they would have received otherwise considering how young they were, but then they ended up actually being as good as they said they could be? That could be true.
So his rivals suck eggs, and wish for rockets to blow up. When they don't blow, they take the slow path to compete with him. Needless to say this is not an effective strategy.All other space ventures of the past got sucked in to the aerospace cult and died as a result. Musk, locked out of that cult, made a more successful cult they don't want to convert to, and they hate him for it, for it shows them up as addicts to dubious things. Even when things blow up, it's just another story to sell to backers with, as to why only he can do this. The other guys find this infuriating, as they save green stamps to get enough margin in budget to do small IRND on a RCS thruster or three lines of code in the guidance software.FWIW, hope this answers your OP.