Industry goes through cycles. Following Shuttle's development, the LV consolidation that resulted in EELV ejected many from the industry, like myself (first time). We were going to focus narrowly on a professional, well-funded effort that would only go after six sigma achievements. Forget the nonsense fantasies of reuse, exoticism, whiz bang ideas that would only cost time/budget.
Just refine what we knew best, how we manufactured best. Everything/everyone else, take a hike!
ULA employee here also. I really have to disagree with you, LocalLodge44, respectfully. This is my opinion: The company has been talking about competing with SpaceX ever since Bruno took over, and even a little before that. Heck, the ULA intranet homepage has been talking about trying to make Vulcan price-competitive, specifically to compete with SpaceX, for months now. It's no longer a nicety, it's a necessity.
Step further. "Its survival."
I simply stated an opinion that I believe SpaceX is of no threat to ULA. We work at ULA..
That is the problem right there and why ULA is losing.
Restated -
if anyone at ULA believes "SpaceX is of no threat to ULA", ULA loses.Mind you, at SpaceX, does anyone doubt ULA is a threat to them?
Many of us have mocked the way SpaceX does things and we have questioned whether they'll be successful, but I think we had quite a few years of us banking on them failing. Where has that strategy gotten us? The bottom line is, they are just on the cusp of launching the same payloads we do, for much cheaper.
I think Mr. Bruno is quite aware that if we can't compete in some level with SpaceX, there's not much of a future for our company. I think all of ULA should be aware of that as well.
In our very customer's words, "Anyone who has bet on SpaceX to fail has been proven wrong."
Exactly.
We can also argue that the price of the rocket will only be affected by a fraction of the cost by changing the current benefits. It's true. But - if we had an easy way of taking off a large portion of the cost of the rocket, would not we have done so already? We won't get to a competitive price by one big ticket item to better rockets - it has to be done incrementally in small pieces that add up to a large cost savings. Labor pensions are a significant part of it.
If it was a few hourly workers (e.g. inconsequential), this issue/topic wouldn't even be here for any provider.
It really wasn't an issue post Shuttle development. Industry changed. Now it is. Happened also to USA with Shuttle program conclusion. And it will happen again in the future.
I've worked at Decatur full-time before. Everyone there is very proud to do what they do. And they do it well. I've found in general that employees of ULA are very passionate about what they do, but their age and scar tissue from past failures has left us reluctant to change. But, now we have to, or die, and it's time to ask what we can do for the company and not the other way around.
It sucks, and believe me, where I'm working now is not at the best of times also, but we have to do what we have to do.
Working in this area is hard and unforgiving. I know - started as a tech and worked hovering over machinists at the time. What I did then required extreme engineering/science/math, shot me off in that direction.
You have to be passionate to put up with this, because its so hard.
But part of the "hard" is what the industry allows. During/before Shuttle development - wilder era. After than - very "buttoned down"/consolidated. Post EELV - expansionist/dynamic/restructuring.
My main intent was to ensure that misinformation wasn't being posted here in an effort to discredit the workers of ULA. Other than that, I have no intent nor goal here. I especially have no reason to discuss SpaceX v. ULA. Do I have "skin in the game"? Of course, but I am merely a hired gun.
Fine, voice of the union being heard. Got it. Hired gun's are market priced. I do that myself for the financial guys a few times a year. Because something like five people in America have that specific skill/experience. And it's used rarely.
The price/availability for it changes all the time. I came to ULA from my previous employer for the pension ULA offered, as did many. I didn't work in the aerospace industry prior and probably will not in the future, barring us being able to retain our pensions after a strike is called tomorrow. At the point my current employer offers less than a prospective employer, our mutual agreement will end and I will move on. Not unlike what many in management have done the past few years.
Understandable. Your best industry choice FWIW is aviation BTW - availability/price best.
I am of the opinion that is ULA's goal. To drive out well compensated, highly skilled people in an effort to replace them with cheap labor. This doesn't just span the labor division, although that is my only concern, I have watched many of the most knowledgeable engineers I have ever had the pleasure to work with flee ULA the past few years because of the cuts.
Frankly don't know motivations like you do. But one might guess that all vendors, services, etc will get hit, to get as much as they think they can get. They'd attempt to match their rival as good or better. Fairness isn't what they'd be shooting for.
I mince no words that we are fairly compensated for the work we do or I wouldn't be at ULA but I will not work for less while I see CEO and Board Member salaries increase. We are all of the opinion, if wage, pension and health cuts are needed then they will lead by example. After all, that is what leaders do isn't it? Lead by example.
Your best case here is to look at SpaceX examples and demand they do similar elsewhere cuts - that will win. Your advantage in hourly is that ULA can't attract SX workforce - where they can't do similar. They have no choice but to pay for that. But eventually that game will go away to as they get smarter about it. Culture thing.
Now - about strikes. Really hard to imagine SX strikes. How would that work? Hmm.
How does a strike change things? Well, for one, SX gets more advantage. ULA slows down and costs increase. If I were Boeing/LockMart, I'd think less about funding Vulcan, and start planning for a "fall back" plan to some other launcher(s). Doesn't matter "fairness" - that's just all that's likely to happen. And that's again "hard".
I am not speaking of floor level management/engineering either. Those poor folks are just the pawns in the game. They take the cuts from the top and the complaints from the bottom. I actually feel empathy for most all of them as I do not believe those jobs panned out to what they thought they would be.
I also have empathy for the burnouts at SpaceX I've had to deal with. Most are great people, and both ULA and SX still hold on some real stinkers too, I've empathy for those that have to work around them to get something done.
I thought about my statement yesterday, about the theoretical race. I suppose upon further consideration I may have been wrong. ULA v. SpaceX may be in a race. From our perspective it appears to be a race to the bottom. I didn't come to work at ULA to watch the Walmart philosophy be implemented. If they want to drive down prices on the backs of the working men and women then they will be doing it without me and many others.
Sounds like Bezos and Musk to me.
That all may sound harsh and self centered but that is capitalism at its finest. What the company's need to remember is capitalism works both ways. There may be some company's that exploit weakness in labor for lower wages but those of us that are highly skilled will exploit the weakness in skill and ability for higher wages.
Yes, the market changes. What threw me out of aerospace, made your/others job possible long term. Now, some one at SX gets a chance as well, it would seem.
Perhaps SX will fail, and then the launch services market would collapse, shrink, consolidate, and go back to something not much different than before. Someone else will manufacture LV's using whatever's best at that time, and be paid at enhanced market rate for a rarefied launch services market as before. Doubt it will be the same arrangement as now though.
That is the issue. Spacex is hiring workers who want to be in the field and work to common goals. Compensation is secondary. Spacex doesn't want hired guns, it wants people passionate about the job (it is that allegiance thing again) and the goals. If you don't want to be in aerospace then go elsewhere. It is calling for most of us.
Indeed. When I ask them about it, its because they want to do something they could never do elsewhere. If they burn out, then they might consider being a "hired gun".
There are many ways costs could be reduced in much greater numbers than pension. One would be relocating CO to AL so much of the production team wouldn't be sitting there for several hours every morning waiting on support from engineering.
This is even worse for international components like RD-180 - international is 5x more.
But the reason is the same - the cost of relocation, RD-180 or resources from Colorado, increases expenses before ever bringing them down.
How many hours is lost on wait times and communications? Another would be, how about we upgrade manufacturing technology that was originally designed in the 1970s to the 21st century. I have worked in many facilities in my life but I have never seen so many archaic ways of manufacturing. I came out of the automotive industry where "lean manufacturing" was taught. This isn't a new concept but ULA has yet to catch on.
The fix for wait times / comm in PayPal (and others) early on was a scheduling mechanism on the web that ensured responsiveness.
BTW, I've complained for a decade about not using advanced manufacturing technology across the board in LV/SC manufacturing. They all "cherry pick". Even SX, although they are so far the best here (largely because they are more recent than ULA). The automobile guys always have state of the art - use them as a measure of "competitiveness". SX has many from the auto industry. To my knowledge, ULA doesn't.
That's a good point to argue.
Another would be, how many hours a day are spent by production members re-certifying? I myself carry over 100 certifications and never touch flight hardware. I waste on average 4 hours a week in front of a PC, learning how to do something I have done for the past 10 years.
SX lessens these costs as part of corporate processes ULA is behind the curve on. Hard to play catch up.
So I would argue that yes, there are hundreds of ways to decrease costs AND increase production that ULA hasn't even touched on. It just so happens, the pension is what the mother companies want them to go after so that is what they are doing. IF you don't believe me, ask Tony Bruno. He spoke at Decatur just a few weeks ago and he specifically stated that it was Boeing and Lockheed that wanted ULA to go after the pensions. Maybe it was his way of passing the buck but you know what, I believe him!
I spoke to him in person also. This would not surprise me.
It also would not surprise me if Boeing/LockMart thinks that financially Vulcan would be a bad investment because of the "loading" to support pensions that SX does not have, so the use of capital is at a disadvantage in ULA.
Should they launch through SX, they wouldn't have this as an issue. If they build LV's inhouse each, the disadvantage is the same as any other program given Boeing/LockMart, where they can play other games that they can't in ULA for cost leverage.
So if ULA is Boeing/LockMart's "SX", it has to fit that model. Otherwise ULA is less than what they can do inhouse.
Back to your statement about labor pensions being a large part of it. I want to run some numbers by you and see if you still feel the same way. According to our analysis, pension costs for the average represented ULA employee comes in a $2.11 per hour. That is the actual costs to ULA and those hours are irrelevant of overtime because all benefit costs are based on a 40 hour week. We could actually drive them down if I included OT but I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume every represented employee works 40 hours per week.
So, (((40*2.11)52)900)= $3,949,920
When you extrapolate that over 14 launches last year you get a total costs savings of $282,137.14 per rocket! Now I don't know what your idea of "significant part of it" is but I can tell you, when ULA is trying to cut costs by 150 million per rocket, I don't look at 300k as a significant part of it. It is a drop in the bucket my friend and anyone that tells you different is blowing smoke up your posterior.
Redo the comparison against SX. Doesn't wash.
Arguments that are based on being similar to economics INSIDE Boeing/LockMart were fair prior to SX being the competitor. Not so after, and longer term. Suggest weaning off somehow is a better strategy. Hard.