Author Topic: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.  (Read 5210 times)

Offline rayleighscatter

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The GAO's report on NASA's major projects was recently released. It covers projects exceeding 250 million dollars in life cycle costs which is currently 12 existing projects and four in formulation. The only one missing is Commercial Crew which was left out of the report since it was written while the award challenge was going on.
The entire report can be seen on http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-320SP

edit/gongora: Attaching/linking other report years
2014 / 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:08 PM by gongora »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #1 on: 03/28/2015 01:34 AM »
The projects assessed are:

Project Assessments
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On
Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2
Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight)
James Webb Space Telescope   
Magnetospheric Multiscale   
Mars 2020   
NASA ISRO - Synthetic Aperture Radar   
Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2   
Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx)
Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle   
Soil Moisture Active and Passive   
Solar Probe Plus   
Space Launch System   
Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment   
Surface Water and Ocean Topography   
Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite

Online AncientU

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #2 on: 03/29/2015 12:41 PM »
Digging through the report, I cannot find the explanation that SLS is a $7.02B project.  That is at least sunk cost to date, but if so, adding in Orion and JWST would break the graph.  How are the bottom-line figures to be interpreted?
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Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #3 on: 03/29/2015 01:59 PM »
Those numbers are the current estimates for the lifetime costs of the program (development cycle costs in this case I think as it doesn't have a defined lifespan like a probe or satellite). The report doesn't get into individual line item costs, as that would make any individual project into a 100 page report. It just highlights major aspects of the projects and potential issues moving forward in schedules and cost.

It does tell us that SLS had 2.674 Billion in formulation costs (early program), estimates of 7.021 Billion in development costs, with the largest contract being Boeing's Cost Plus Awards Contract for the core currently valued at 4.185 Billion out of a possible 4.389 Billion (They also note that this contract was originally awarded under Constellation and was later modified). I believe these are the estimates from beginning of program to EM-1 when it would switch from development to operations.

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #4 on: 03/30/2015 04:58 AM »
JWST total cost still $8.8 billion. Nice to see some stability there finally.

Offline vulture4

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #5 on: 04/05/2015 05:56 PM »
I do not understand figure 10.It looks as though Commercial Crew is being eliminated in 2019.

Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #6 on: 04/05/2015 06:37 PM »
I do not understand figure 10.It looks as though Commercial Crew is being eliminated in 2019.
From 2018-2020 it probably transitions from development to operations which is a different (likely ISS related) budget.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #7 on: 04/06/2015 12:31 AM »
I do not understand figure 10.It looks as though Commercial Crew is being eliminated in 2019.
From 2018-2020 it probably transitions from development to operations which is a different (likely ISS related) budget.

Yes, and you can see that in NASA's FY 2016 Budget Request, where Commercial Spaceflight (Commercial Crew) winds down to pretty much nothing in FY2020, and under the ISS budget the "ISS Crew and Cargo Transportation" line item increases starting in 2018.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline gongora

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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #9 on: 05/01/2018 08:32 PM »
2018 report is out:
https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-18-280SP

One of the indicators I looked at for how well Bolden was doing as NASA Administrator was this chart:

NASA’s Major Project Portfolio Cost and Schedule Performance Deteriorated in 2018



Last year was HORRIBLE for NASA major projects! It looks like the wheels are coming off.

Was it directly attributable to NASA not having a NASA Administrator? Will Bridenstine be able to solve the core issues driving launch delays and get them down to where Bolden had them?

Bridenstine did not own the results of this GAO report, but he will own the results of the next one. Let's hope he understands how to do basic management, because NASA apparently needs that skill in a NASA Administrator right now...
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:35 PM by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online AncientU

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #10 on: 05/01/2018 08:38 PM »
How much of that 2018 overrun was known earlier and not reported?  SLS, Orion, and JWST were all known to be slipping but Bolden smiled and passed, instead of letting the truth be known.
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:39 PM by AncientU »
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Offline Star One

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #11 on: 05/01/2018 08:40 PM »
SpaceX and Boeing spacecraft may not become operational until 2020

Quote
A new report provides some insight into the challenges that SpaceX and Boeing are facing when it comes to flying commercial crew missions, and it also suggests both companies may be nearly two years away from reaching operational status for NASA.

The assessment of large projects at NASA, published on Tuesday by the US Government Accountability Office, found that certification of the private spacecraft for flying astronauts to the International Space Station may be delayed to December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing.

"Both of the Commercial Crew Program's contractors have made progress developing their crew transportation systems, but delays persist as the contractors have had difficulty executing aggressive schedules," the report states.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/new-report-suggests-commercial-crew-program-likely-faces-further-delays/
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:50 PM by gongora »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #12 on: 06/15/2018 01:28 AM »
Today was the Subcommittee on Space Hearing - NASA Cost and Schedule Overruns: Acquisition and Program Management Challenges. This is in response to the 10th annual Quick Look at the status of NASA's major projects by the GAO (see earlier post).

https://www.youtube.com/embed/S-m48dGFJDE

An article about the hearing at Gizmodo:

Congressional Subcommittee Grills NASA on Skyrocketing Project Cost Overruns

From the article:

Quote
“Performance has worsened after years of following a general positive trend,” testified Cristina T. Chaplain, the director of Contracting and National Security Acquisitions at GAO, at the hearing. The reasons, she said, had to do with “risky management decisions, unforeseen technical challenges—some avoidable and some not—and workmanship errors.”
« Last Edit: 06/15/2018 01:33 AM by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #13 on: 06/15/2018 01:52 AM »
The hearing made C-SPAN3 today, too.
(Playing at the time of this post)
https://www.c-span.org/video/?447011-1/hearing-focuses-nasa-cost-overruns
« Last Edit: 06/15/2018 01:54 AM by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Jim

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #14 on: 06/16/2018 03:30 PM »

Was it directly attributable to NASA not having a NASA Administrator? Will Bridenstine be able to solve the core issues driving launch delays and get them down to where Bolden had them?


Has nothing to do with the Administrator.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #15 on: 06/16/2018 10:43 PM »

Was it directly attributable to NASA not having a NASA Administrator? Will Bridenstine be able to solve the core issues driving launch delays and get them down to where Bolden had them?


Has nothing to do with the Administrator.

What is your guess as to the reason?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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