There are no plans for a three core heavy version. NGLS performance will exceed that of DIV Heavy using a single core plus a few solids...
For some reason I too had thought that the NGLV would have a 3-core version.
So you are saying that the NGLV will pretty much look like an Atlas V 551, which is a single core with SRM's added. Do we know this for sure, or is it speculation? Just curious.
No confirmation. Think its inferred from the need to compete low cost high frequency. Experience with DIVH has been said to be that integration of such clustered core vehicles is slow and costly, although DIV's hydrolox characteristics may have a significant addition to this.
Many are watching other clustered vehicles like Angara 3-5 and FH to see if this pattern follows.
Atlas V Heavy never happened, so a new launch table would likely be required for a three barrel, and significant changes to the VIF. If one was going to fly while upgrading, and if you needed to raise launch frequency, it may be that a new VIF and a separate pad might make sense.
The advantage of not going to a multicore here is that minor modifications to existing pad/VIF for a new LV could be concurrent with operating AV. This would fit likely ULA needs to conserve current operations while bringing on a new vehicle. That and cutting DIV-M.
Yea, I think as space enthusiasts, we tend to want to ask "what if?" or "what -could- be?" rather than, "what's needed?"
That's probably what drives Jim nuts on a lot of these threads. ;-)
The question is, if you could make a new EELV, what performance points would you design it for?
With the original EELV, the base slick stick's were basically a step up from the medium ELV's of the the mid 1990's, Delta II and Atlas II. Withe thir tri-core heavy version being a step up from the Titan IV HLV.
But today, we have over a decade of launch history so we know better what the government's most common needs are and the commercial sector's needs.
The tri-core heavy is needed so seldom the never developed the Atlas version of it. D4H was seldom needed as it was. It's only been launched 8 times (1 was just a demo launch) in it's history.
In fact, the 3-5 SRB version of Atlas and 4 SRB version of D4M+ were only needed 12 and 4 times respectively in the history of the EELV program.
The slick core versions, or 1 or 2 SRB versions make up the remander of the 81 total EELV launches.
So 57 of 81 payloads have been 2 SRB or less, and only 7 of 81 payloads have needed an actual tri-core heavy.
The 2 SRB version of Atlas and Delta hit around that 6.5mt to GTO (1800m/s) performance point. It looks like FHR will be right around there too.
So, if it were me, I'd make my basic LV right about that, with option to add SRB's to cover those 4-5 SRB Atlas and D4M class payloads, as well as the rare D4H payload. The basic slick LV would be my bread and butter money maker. Adding SRB's won't be any big thing as the pad ops will be pretty much the same of 1 SRB or 6. That will cover most government payloads and all commercial payloads with that basic config.
I'm sure the core could support a tri-core heavy if NASA or USAF ever needed one and would be willing to pay for it, as well as the pad modificaitons. So it'd be a nice upgrade to have in your back pocket, but you wouldn't be planning your base LV around it.
IF that's what ULA is doing, I can definately see the logic in it.