Bigelow and SpaceX

[Radical_Ignorant]

(Edited to make it more clear)

Will and if how much Bigelow business will affect SpaceX business. How much demand for launches it will generate? (0 or few dozens additionall flights per year as anything in between seems to have no sense)

Basic assumptions:
- 5 years from now
- Falcon Heavy is ready
- Falcon 9 first stage is fully and rapidly reusable
- Bigelow inflatable habitat technology is tested and there is no problem with deploying it for commercial use
- SpaceX have no problem with meeting demand for their launches.

Unknows (this is what I'm curious about, numbers below are often pulled out of thin air and I'd be more than happy to learn more accurate predictions)
- Basic market size?
- Basic costs (excluding transport issues)? Again pulled out of thin air 200mln/year/base (including base cost and it's amortization)
- Required launches? 1 additionall cargo flight for every single human flight.
- Bigelow profits? I'd assume close to zero as he is as big fan as Musk of space so I'd belive he is ready to do it without any profit (other than fame and getting footholder for future).
- Max base capacity? (excluding crew) - 10


Assuming one week stay and two 330 modules (2x6 people = 10 tourist + 2 crew members) x 50 weeks means: 500 customers per year which will need to create revenue of 200mln gives 400k per ticket excluding excluding travel cost.

SpaceX costs assumptions:
Assuming using fully reusable Falcon9 first stage and reusable Dragon2 (excluding costs of those two) we get to price tag of about 18mln per flight which gives at least over 5mln additionall cost for ticket.
Is it possible to find hundreds of customers every year willing to pay over 10mln$ to fly for week to space? If not it seems Bigelow is a dream which won't come true for very long time and there is no opportunity here to rise market size for SpaceX. Or is there maybe some research about market of corporate/state customers which is something more than pure speculation?

So it seems that the most importand factor for scaling up market is price of ticket.

[docmordrid]

The full BA-330 module would need a Falcon Heavy,  and SpaceX/Bigelow   posted this press release in 2012

Link....

[Radical_Ignorant]

Thanks for link but it's not on topic. It's quite obvious SpaceX will provide launches to almost anyone
My question is: will it fly. How many customers are required per year to keep it viable. And what is required price to make it significant business - to provide additional 50 or more launches for SpaceX.
In quite the similar time frame there will be: Falcon Heavy. Biggelow module tested at ISS and reusable Falcon9R.

[Radical_Ignorant]

We know there are few people ready to pay many milions. We know there are hundreds and very possibly thousands of people ready to pay quarter milion. (Virgin Galactic customers). So I'd like to ask you: how much can this cost and how big influence can this have on launch rate. Assuming use of reusable Falcon9R.

[dkovacic]

Well, for space tourism there we have three data points that I know of:

1. 1 person for 150,000,000 USD (circumlunar mission)
2. 8 people at 50,000,000 USD pricepoint (ISS visits)
3. 700 people at 250,000 USD pricepoint (suborbital VG customers)

I assume elastic demand (linear on log-log graph).

So F9 launch with reused 1st stage (40 million) + reused Dragon (35 million) + 2 week space station utilization (25 million) divided by 6 tourists = 16.6 million per tourist. That gives 20 tourists for private space station.

But with more aggressive pricing, (30 million for LV + 15 million for reused Dragon + 15 million for 2 week station utilization) I got 31 tourist.

Bigelow announced a price of 25 million per seat (for 2 month stay), but that was calculated before reusability was taken into account.

What we don't know if the market is elastic (I suppose it is). Also, the above estimates are significantly skewed to lower bound because other factors (such as low availability of ISS seats, very long training time, political issues with ISS use, waiting time for available seat, waiting time for VG to become operational etc) significantly reduce number of space tourists in given data points.

Note that this analysis addresses only market for private citizens as space tourists. It does not include government sponsored missions (not just US).

Also, look it from the other perspective: there were 1.645 billionaires in 2014 in the whole world. In the recent poll, 28% of the Americans were willing to travel to space if offered a free ride. Now combine these two numbers (assuming that 1% or less of total wealth is equivalent to "free ride"), we get 460 customers among billionaires alone.

So there is a market potential, and reusable F9 and Dragon might be the tipping point that could justify fixed costs (privately built station).

[dkovacic]

Another point not mentioned: why should SpaceX wait for Bigelow space station at all? For their stated goal (Mars colonization), the 1st step is to reduce cost of space launch. F9R targets that aspect.

The second aspect is reusable space hardware (reusable Dragon) for cargo and HSF. That is under contract.

There is a large volume (and interest) in speculation about MCT. It is not clear that MCT will land on Mars. But we know for sure that it should spend months in space with people on board. So, it will need in-space propulsion, attitude control, solar arrays, batteries, and closed loop ECLSS. And one or more docking port(s). And capability of in-space fuel transfer. So to me, MCT will be very similar to a space station. So, in order to fund this development, why not launch MCT into LEO and use it as a tourist destination?

So I think SpaceX is not just a long term supplier of Bigelow. It just might become a long term competitor.

[Lampyridae]

Bigelow inflatables might serve as the basis for an Earth-Mars cycler. Or the core modules of a Martian colony - Bigelow has taken several patents and improved upon NASA's design and I can't see SpaceX bothering to develop and out-compete them unless Bigelow "pulls a Russian" and tries to rip Musk off. Also, if NASA hauls a rock or two into Lunar orbit, you have a BEO tourist destination with a great view, complete with something to spacewalk around.

[dkovacic]

I wanted to emphasize that Bigelow Aerospace has been projected as the only option for private space flight. There is no other publicly stated effort (in USA/EU) to bring new capability online.

So in essence, currently we have two companies stating that want to built spacecrafts suitable for long term human presence. The first calls it a space station. The second calls it MCT. What I want to emphasize that MCT is a space station. Which can bring revenue to its owner in LEO before it is completed or heads to Mars.

Besides, I think most customers will rather choose to visit a Mars spaceship than a inflated module (assuming that all other capabilities and features being equal). Elon Musk generates much stronger reality distortion field than anyone else in space industry.

[docmordrid]

I wanted to emphasize that Bigelow Aerospace has been projected as the only option for private space flight. There is no other publicly stated effort (in USA/EU) to bring new capability online.
>

Canada. Thin Red Line has built at least 20 of Bigelow's module restraint layers, up to 320 m3,  and they've worked with NASA. Check under Projects.

http://www.thin-red-line.com

http://spacenews.com/41009spotlight-thin-red-line-aerospace/

[Kansan52]

As the years have gone on, Bigelow went from being the first space hotel to the first space casino to the first (private) space laboratory.

Between companies, universities, and governments, there is demand. And you don't have to deal with 'customers'. Renting space for months at a time rather than days or weeks at a time is easier. My expectation is that Bigelow has a list of representatives that can put pay deposits when transport becomes available.

For Space X and MCT, running a tourist trap is much more work. And it takes resources away from the goal of colonization.

Commercial operations will take all of Bigelow's resources and Space X simply has enough to do and tourism would be a distraction.

My guess is that it will be ten years from now before there is serious plans for a space destination. Plus, it will be Space Adventures or some other company contracting the trips probably using Bigelow and Space X because they will have run the numbers and can profit from tourism/adventurism.

Then Bigelow and Space X can avoid the tourists!

[clongton]

I wanted to emphasize that Bigelow Aerospace has been projected as the only option for private space flight. There is no other publicly stated effort (in USA/EU) to bring new capability online.
>

Canada. Thin Red Line has built many of Bigelow's module restraint layers and they've worked with NASA. Check under Projects.

http://www.thin-red-line.com

http://spacenews.com/41009spotlight-thin-red-line-aerospace/

I have been under the impression that Bigelow bought the rights to Transhab from NASA, developed and improved on that, and that is where Genesis 1 & 2 came from, and now the BA-330.

So what exactly does Bigelow do? Does Thin Red Line build the inflatables for him as a subcontractor?

[docmordrid]

AFAICT the core, systems and all the other layers, unless they've brought the  restraints in-house. RCS was contracted. Maybe Orbital Debris clarify..

[Comga]

As the years have gone on, Bigelow went from being the first space hotel to the first space casino to the first (private) space laboratory.
(snip)

That's not true.  Bigelow never proposed a space hotel or space casino.  It has never been about space tourism.

[clongton]

As the years have gone on, Bigelow went from being the first space hotel to the first space casino to the first (private) space laboratory.
(snip)

That's not true.  Bigelow never proposed a space hotel or space casino.  It has never been about space tourism.

I think that's right. It was always assumed by "the crowd" that because he made his money in hotels, that his space infrastructure would be hotels. But Mr. Bigelow himself never advocated that. He has always spoken about space stations; commercial, academic and international. That's the market he is aiming at. And there's money in them all. A lot more money than in tourism and hotels.

[JasonAW3]

As the years have gone on, Bigelow went from being the first space hotel to the first space casino to the first (private) space laboratory.
(snip)

That's not true.  Bigelow never proposed a space hotel or space casino.  It has never been about space tourism.

I think that's right. It was always assumed by "the crowd" that because he made his money in hotels, that his space infrastructure would be hotels. But Mr. Bigelow himself never advocated that. He has always spoken about space stations; commercial, academic and international. That's the market he is aiming at. And there's money in them all. A lot more money than in tourism and hotels.

Bigelow, space architect!

Personally, before SpaceX starts sending people to Mars, I'm expecting them to send people to the Moon, and likely for $250,000 round trip and $100,000 one way.  Mind you, I expect thios will be after Mr. Bigelow finishes building the core of the first Lunar Town.

[TrevorMonty]

As the years have gone on, Bigelow went from being the first space hotel to the first space casino to the first (private) space laboratory.
(snip)

That's not true.  Bigelow never proposed a space hotel or space casino.  It has never been about space tourism.

IMHO his first customers will be commercial companies and nations, leasing sections of a station. I also expect him to cater to space tourism after a few years, once his space station is running smoothly.

In near term I can't see SpaceX or Boeing ignoring an orbital tourism market (a few orbits and return) if one exists.

[spacenut]

I see it as a win-win for both companies.  SpaceX makes a little money to help fund their Mars program, while Bigelow makes money for tenants/visitors to his space hotel/research facility.  Boeing with their capsule, and maybe Dreamchaser could visit the hotel also.  Boeing and Dreamchaser might have to share the new ULA launch vehicle or SpaceX could pick one up for the money.  I think a facility in moon orbit, or on the moon would have a good draw from Billionaires. 

Maybe SpaceX is interested in Mars habitats using Bigelow inflatables to begin with.   

[cro-magnon gramps]

As the years have gone on, Bigelow went from being the first space hotel to the first space casino to the first (private) space laboratory.
(snip)

That's not true.  Bigelow never proposed a space hotel or space casino.  It has never been about space tourism.

I think that's right. It was always assumed by "the crowd" that because he made his money in hotels, that his space infrastructure would be hotels. But Mr. Bigelow himself never advocated that. He has always spoken about space stations; commercial, academic and international. That's the market he is aiming at. And there's money in them all. A lot more money than in tourism and hotels.

Bigelow, space architect!

Personally, before SpaceX starts sending people to Mars, I'm expecting them to send people to the Moon, and likely for $250,000 round trip and $100,000 one way.  Mind you, I expect thios will be after Mr. Bigelow finishes building the core of the first Lunar Town.

You left out one crucial item: How Will Mr B. Get His Infrastructure And Workers To The Moon?

[clongton]

You left out one crucial item: How Will Mr B. Get His Infrastructure And Workers To The Moon?

Admittedly speculation, but perhaps via MCT? It's supposed to actually land on Mars then return and Elon has speculated about possibly doing the moon as proving ground missions.

[cro-magnon gramps]

You left out one crucial item: How Will Mr B. Get His Infrastructure And Workers To The Moon?

Admittedly speculation, but perhaps via MCT? It's supposed to actually land on Mars then return and Elon has speculated about possibly doing the moon as proving ground missions.

I've wondered about whether a 1.5 architecture might work with the F9 and a FH; but it would mean some serious upgrades to the SpaceX LV/SC and some learning curve with docking with a BA-330, and perhaps prop. transfer in LEO/Lunar Orbit... It would make for some very interesting video footage on the first attempt at a Lunar Outpost... Suppose too, it depends on how advanced Bigelow is in the design of that tug and other hardware they showed us last year.

I do like the idea of a partnership between Bigelow and SpaceX; RB said last year he was looking at being a lynch-pin for Commercial Space/Gov't Agency working group. Wonder how that is going, and how it would affect something like this.. Admittedly this is getting OT, so if there is a Thread for this, perhaps we should take it there if it is going to hijack this one...