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#180 by IntoTheVoid on 04 Aug, 2018 14:46
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It’s not rushing, Chris
It’s minimizing wasted time.
And I am not advocating doing anything different with DM-1 than waiting to unpack it.
The only reason to do the unmanned test flights is to learn things about the system ahead of the crewed flights. It will take time to digest whatever is observed and the Commercial Crew safety reviews have all taken longer than originally anticipated. Earlier launch buys more time.
ASAP puts the far end of the probable date range for certification past the end date for Soyuz availability. That’s pretty frightening and NASA should be doing what they can to buy extra time before then. Right now they are prioritizing HTV-7 over DM-1 and the path to Commercial Crew. Although there are a plethora of “moving parts” in the ISS program that need to mesh, I find that curious and concerning.
I am no one, but I agree with Comga, and possibly further.
I find these flight priorities shortsighted and concerning. All four commercial crew test flights are on the critical path for 0 ISS utilization in the USOC, until at least one of the providers is certified. Therefore these flights should have the highest priority other than those required for ISS crew safety. Given the typical ISS supply levels it is unlikely that any, but certainly not more than 1 of the supply flights are schedule critical.Not sure what you mean by interesting priorities. Are you saying an uncrewed test flight carrying minimal supplies to ISS should take precedent over a needed crew rotation and a needed and large-scale resupply and science delivery mission (HTV-7)? If so, why?
I fully understand and am aware that Soyuz seats expire for the USOS in 2019. But how is rushing and changing things last minute for only 1 provider's uncrewed test going to change that and future timelines? NASA is saying there isn't time to do SpX DM-1 until November. So what do you gain by launching early and "dock loitering"? Nothing.
NASA not having time until November is evidence of the priorities and flows from it, it's not justification for those priorities. Spx DM-1 should not be rushed nor modified; it should be flown as soon as it is ready, without delay. If there is no time to unpack or re-pack it then send it empty. The purpose of this flight is not cargo delivery or return, if there's not time for cargo then don't send the cargo. Any delay to the uncrewed test flight(s) is a potential further delay to the crewed test flight(s) if anything is found, and delays to any of the test flights, delays necessary products to the certification process.
Until there is a certified US crewed launch provider, all delays to the commercial crew test program (SpaceX and Boeing) risk the evacuation of the USOC. The consequence of this is large enough, however unlikely, that this risk should be minimized. Even if every other ISS flight was delayed 2-4 weeks, reduced utilization and disrupted schedules are far better than evacuation and zero utilization, and that is what the current priorities risk, and why the CC flights should not be delayed. Not rushed, flown when ready, without delay. -
#181 by Alexphysics on 04 Aug, 2018 15:04
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People, NASA has one Progress on October 31st, a Cygnus in mid November and a Dragon by the end of November and STILL it has approved a Dragon 2 flight in that month. If you really think that ISS schedule is the ONLY thing that pushed DM-1 to November, you're probably wrong. HTV-7 is just ONE spacecraft and it will be there for 2 months. Compare that to THREE spacecraft arriving all in one month. ISS is clearly not the only thing that drove that move to November since NASA could have simply put DM-1 between the soyuz flight in October and the Progress flight at the end of October and that's not what has happened
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#182 by kdhilliard on 08 Aug, 2018 18:10
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On yesterday's Off-Nominal podcast Episode 11 @27:30, Eric Berger talked about cornering Gwynne Shotwell immediately following Friday's Commercial Crew assignment ceremony:Quote
She was fired up. She said, "You know, I've even got a date when we're going to launch in November." That's how confident she was. But she said, "They wouldn't let me tell that today."
Berger went on to say, "I think probably, if it happens, it would be in the last ten days of November or so." -
#183 by gongora on 09 Aug, 2018 02:49
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Another good Eric Berger article, this one describing the work left for SpaceX to do for CC:
QuoteHere’s what SpaceX must do to win the commercial crew race
Demo test, abort test, finish COPVs, test fuel loading, and so on. It's a long list.
ERIC BERGER - 8/9/2018, 7:59 AM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/heres-what-spacex-must-do-to-win-the-commercial-crew-race/
Edit to add: article includes status of Demo 1 hardwareQuoteLueders said the Block V variant of the Falcon 9 rocket first stage, as well as its upper stage, will soon ship from SpaceX’s factory in Hawthorne, California, to the company’s facilities in McGregor, Texas, for engine testing. Afterward, the rocket is scheduled to arrive at Florida’s Cape Canaveral in September. The company has also delivered the spacecraft to Florida, but they still need to finish the Dragon’s trunk for the mission and ship that.
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#184 by envy887 on 09 Aug, 2018 18:32
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Another good Eric Berger article, this one describing the work left for SpaceX to do for CC:
QuoteHere’s what SpaceX must do to win the commercial crew race
Demo test, abort test, finish COPVs, test fuel loading, and so on. It's a long list.
ERIC BERGER - 8/9/2018, 7:59 AM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/heres-what-spacex-must-do-to-win-the-commercial-crew-race/
Edit to add: article includes status of Demo 1 hardwareQuoteLueders said the Block V variant of the Falcon 9 rocket first stage, as well as its upper stage, will soon ship from SpaceX’s factory in Hawthorne, California, to the company’s facilities in McGregor, Texas, for engine testing. Afterward, the rocket is scheduled to arrive at Florida’s Cape Canaveral in September. The company has also delivered the spacecraft to Florida, but they still need to finish the Dragon’s trunk for the mission and ship that.
It also saysQuote“We have an agreement with SpaceX that they are going to take our launch vehicle configuration and run it through the actual crew-loading timeline to demonstrate consistency,” Lueders said. “It’s for us to get confidence on the crew-loading sequence.”
This means that the static fire and launch of the Demo-1 mission will follow fuel-loading procedures for crew missions, as will the static fire and launch of the in-flight abort mission. The fifth test will come during the static fire test of the Demo-2 flight.
So Berger is saying that all 5 loading tests will be on the DM-1, IFA test, and DM-2 vehicles, all in the crew configuration with Dragon. -
#185 by Chris Bergin on 17 Aug, 2018 17:45
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FEATURE ARTICLE: SpaceX readies for installation of LC-39A Crew Access Arm, previews Crew Dragon -
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/08/spacex-installation-lc-39a-caa-previews-crew-dragon/
- By Chris Gebhardt
- Includes photos and footage from Jack Beyer -
#186 by mazen hesham on 11 Sep, 2018 12:42
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DM-1 now NET late November according to Ben Cooper.Quote
Upcoming launches include the maiden flight of the Crew Dragon spacecraft on uncrewed
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
demonstration mission DM-1 to the International Space Station from pad 39A, as early as late
November. -
#187 by Eagandale4114 on 18 Sep, 2018 02:12
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DM-1 NET December according to Elon at the BFR moon passenger talk QA.
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#188 by Chris Bergin on 19 Sep, 2018 22:08
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ARTICLE: SpaceX finalizing Pad 39A upgrades for return to crew operations -
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/spacex-pad-39a-upgrades-return-crew-operations/
- by Ian Atkinson
With thanks to Tom McCool for taking some pics
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#189 by ZachS09 on 19 Sep, 2018 22:13
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That article is a bit inaccurate.
Even though it says that EchoStar 23 was the return to flight, it was actually SpaceX CRS-10 in February 2017. -
#190 by IanThePineapple on 19 Sep, 2018 22:14
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That article is a bit inaccurate.
Even though it says that EchoStar 23 was the return to flight, it was actually SpaceX CRS-10 in February 2017.
Will fix, sorry about that! -
#191 by FutureSpaceTourist on 03 Oct, 2018 10:23
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#192 by woods170 on 03 Oct, 2018 13:55
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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1047428050772811777
Exactly the one thing NASA was warned about for the past two years by both GAO and ASAP: the CCP providers are (almost) ready to fly their hardware but NASA is behind on paperwork. -
#193 by FutureSpaceTourist on 04 Oct, 2018 20:54
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https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1047944119690190849
Edit to add:QuoteNASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Test Flight Dates
SpaceX's Crew Dragon and Boeing's Starliner will transport astronauts to the International Space Station.The next generation of American spacecraft and rockets that will launch astronauts to the International Space Station are nearing the final stages of development and evaluation. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program will return human spaceflight launches to U.S. soil, providing safe, reliable and cost-effective access to low-Earth orbit on systems that meet our safety and mission requirements. To meet NASA’s requirements, the commercial providers must demonstrate that their systems are ready to begin regular flights to the space station. Two of those demonstrations are uncrewed flight tests, known as Orbital Flight Test for Boeing, and Demo-1 for SpaceX. After the uncrewed flight tests, both companies will execute a flight test with crew prior to being certified by NASA for crew rotation missions. The following reflects the most recent publicly releasable flight planning dates for both providers.
Test Flight Planning Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): March 2019
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): August 2019
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): January 2019
SpaceX Demo-2 (crewed): June 2019
Following the test flights, NASA will review the performance data and resolve issues as necessary to certify the systems for operational missions. Boeing, SpaceX and the Commercial Crew Program are actively working to be ready for the operational missions; however, as with all human spaceflight development, learning from each test and adjusting as necessary to reduce risk to the crew may override planning dates.
Anticipated Readiness Dates for Operational Missions:
First operational mission: August 2019
Second operational mission: December 2019
For more information, see https://go.nasa.gov/2QwW3Sd.
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/10/04/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-4/ -
#194 by gongora on 04 Oct, 2018 20:56
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https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/10/04/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-4/
QuoteTest Flight Planning Dates:
SpaceX Demo-1 (uncrewed): January 2019 -
#195 by Roy_H on 06 Oct, 2018 17:03
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Do we know why the DM! keeps slipping? I now believe Boeing's crewed Starliner will be first to the ISS because they have always projected a short time between demo and maned flights and SpaceX has to have their in flight abort test.
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#196 by Alexphysics on 06 Oct, 2018 18:09
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Do we know why the DM! keeps slipping? I now believe Boeing's crewed Starliner will be first to the ISS because they have always projected a short time between demo and maned flights and SpaceX has to have their in flight abort test.
There's a post on NASA's website about it and if you look at Boeing's dates they're worse than SpaceX. -
#197 by Roy_H on 06 Oct, 2018 18:20
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Do we know why the DM! keeps slipping? I now believe Boeing's crewed Starliner will be first to the ISS because they have always projected a short time between demo and maned flights and SpaceX has to have their in flight abort test.
There's a post on NASA's website about it and if you look at Boeing's dates they're worse than SpaceX.
I know, I just don't believe SpaceX can retrieve DM1, refurbish it for the in flight abort test, perform the test, and get NASA to sign off on all the data in 6 months. DM2 will slip a lot. -
#198 by RonM on 06 Oct, 2018 19:04
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Do we know why the DM! keeps slipping? I now believe Boeing's crewed Starliner will be first to the ISS because they have always projected a short time between demo and maned flights and SpaceX has to have their in flight abort test.
There's a post on NASA's website about it and if you look at Boeing's dates they're worse than SpaceX.
I know, I just don't believe SpaceX can retrieve DM1, refurbish it for the in flight abort test, perform the test, and get NASA to sign off on all the data in 6 months. DM2 will slip a lot.
How much refurbishment is needed? It doesn't need to be ready for orbit or reentry. Just fix it up enough for the abort. -
#199 by Alexphysics on 06 Oct, 2018 21:33
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Do we know why the DM! keeps slipping? I now believe Boeing's crewed Starliner will be first to the ISS because they have always projected a short time between demo and maned flights and SpaceX has to have their in flight abort test.
There's a post on NASA's website about it and if you look at Boeing's dates they're worse than SpaceX.
I know, I just don't believe SpaceX can retrieve DM1, refurbish it for the in flight abort test, perform the test, and get NASA to sign off on all the data in 6 months. DM2 will slip a lot.
No one is making you believe those dates if you don't want to. Just saying that Boeing, in terms of hardware and testing, is way behind SpaceX... more than people think. Apart from that, they also have to do a pad abort test that you seemed to forget on your comment and they have to do that before their crewed mission. I wish the best for both companies but reality is reality and they're behind. Anyways, this topic is not very much related to this thread and mission, maybe it's better placed on the Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis thread.
