Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018 - Discussion  (Read 20041 times)

Offline crandles57

  • Member
  • Posts: 29
  • Sychdyn
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #20 on: 12/31/2017 07:34 PM »
Is it known what booster is assigned? I'd guess CRS-12 or OTV-5, maybe KoreaSat's

There's some L2 info that can answer that question :)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0

When does this get declassified?

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2334
  • US
  • Liked: 1672
  • Likes Given: 1164
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #21 on: 12/31/2017 09:34 PM »
Is it known what booster is assigned? I'd guess CRS-12 or OTV-5, maybe KoreaSat's

There's some L2 info that can answer that question :)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0

When does this get declassified?

As far as I can tell there is just a guess in that L2 thread.

Online cscott

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2638
  • Liked: 1843
  • Likes Given: 658
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #22 on: 01/01/2018 05:42 AM »
And the answer in general is that L2 info gets "declassified" when it is confirmed with SpaceX and written up in an article.

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2334
  • US
  • Liked: 1672
  • Likes Given: 1164
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #23 on: 01/07/2018 01:58 AM »
How would this satellite get from Dulles to the Cape?  Would it most likely be flown, and if so would it be on an AN-124?  I tried looking for AN-124 flights and  found one going Dulles-LAX-Merritt Island on Dec 3-4, and another AN-124 going Dulles-Kingston-Tampa on Dec 24 (which seems less likely).  Would these GEO sats ever just get trucked to the launch site from Dulles?

And the answer in general is that L2 info gets "declassified" when it is confirmed with SpaceX and written up in an article.

This is why I want to get L2, I'm super impatient. I might buy 2 months just to test it out this year
Proud creator of Ian's Paper Model Rocket Collection:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42383.0

Offline octavo

  • Member
  • Posts: 89
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #25 on: 01/07/2018 04:14 AM »
And the answer in general is that L2 info gets "declassified" when it is confirmed with SpaceX and written up in an article.

This is why I want to get L2, I'm super impatient. I might buy 2 months just to test it out this year
It's totally worth it, especially around launch times. In fact, just the renders by lamontagne and others that end up in the articles are worth it. There are plenty that don't make it indy the article, but are still great fanservice.

And the answer in general is that L2 info gets "declassified" when it is confirmed with SpaceX and written up in an article.

This is why I want to get L2, I'm super impatient. I might buy 2 months just to test it out this year
It's totally worth it, especially around launch times. In fact, just the renders by lamontagne and others that end up in the articles are worth it. There are plenty that don't make it indy the article, but are still great fanservice.

Alright, I need that in my life.
Proud creator of Ian's Paper Model Rocket Collection:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42383.0

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8478
  • UK
  • Liked: 1381
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #27 on: 01/07/2018 08:33 AM »
Is this pretty certain now to fly before the FH demo flight?

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1269
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 281
  • Likes Given: 813
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #28 on: 01/07/2018 08:27 PM »
Is this pretty certain now to fly before the FH demo flight?
Expanding on your thought...

The Falcon Heavy Demo launch from LC-39A is, in essence, now NET simultaneous with the SES-16 launch from SLC-40.

How would this satellite get from Dulles to the Cape?  Would it most likely be flown, and if so would it be on an AN-124?  I tried looking for AN-124 flights and  found one going Dulles-LAX-Merritt Island on Dec 3-4, and another AN-124 going Dulles-Kingston-Tampa on Dec 24 (which seems less likely).  Would these GEO sats ever just get trucked to the launch site from Dulles?

Apparently, "we" don't know if the satellite has even been delivered to the launch site yet?  Would O/ATK or SES announce a successful delivery to the launch provider?  Or does Luxembourg want as little publicity as possible?

That appears to be a (the?) critical piece of missing information.

My non-expert opinion:
SES is a paying customer (vs. FH demo which is a test flight with no customer payload aboard).  A delay of a few days beyond NET Jan. 29 won't matter much in the "big picture" (How the Solar System Was Won).  SES-16 would be given priority in a parallel launch campaigns situation.

So IF the satellite has been delivered and is already being processed for launch;

AND IF Zuma launches tonight, as scheduled;

THEN SES-16 might progress directly through its launch campaign as soon as SLC-40 is cleared for another launch, launching before the Falcon Heavy Demo.

There's my deduction chain.  Any flaws?
« Last Edit: 01/07/2018 08:29 PM by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium!

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8478
  • UK
  • Liked: 1381
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #29 on: 01/07/2018 08:29 PM »
Is this pretty certain now to fly before the FH demo flight?
Expanding on your thought...

The Falcon Heavy Demo launch from LC-39A is, in essence, now NET simultaneous with the SES-16 launch from SLC-40.

Apparently, "we" don't know if the satellite has even been delivered to the launch site yet?  Would O/ATK or SES announce a successful delivery?  Or does Luxembourg want as little publicity as possible?

That appears to be a (the?) critical piece of missing information.

My non-expert opinion:
SES is a paying customer (vs. FH demo which is a test flight with no customer payload aboard).  A delay of a few days beyond NET Jan. 29 won't matter much in the "big picture" (How the Solar System Was Won).  SES-16 would be given priority in a parallel launch campaigns situation.

So IF the satellite has been delivered and is already being processed for launch;

AND IF Zuma launches tonight, as scheduled;

THEN SES-16 might progress directly through its launch campaign as soon as SLC-40 is cleared for another launch, launching before the Falcon Heavy Demo.

There's my deduction chain.  Any flaws?

In light of the above I can see the FH demo flight dropping into February.

Online russianhalo117

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3995
  • AR USA / Berlin, DE / Moscow, RF
  • Liked: 810
  • Likes Given: 489
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #30 on: 01/07/2018 08:43 PM »
Is this pretty certain now to fly before the FH demo flight?
Expanding on your thought...

The Falcon Heavy Demo launch from LC-39A is, in essence, now NET simultaneous with the SES-16 launch from SLC-40.

Apparently, "we" don't know if the satellite has even been delivered to the launch site yet?  Would O/ATK or SES announce a successful delivery?  Or does Luxembourg want as little publicity as possible?

That appears to be a (the?) critical piece of missing information.

My non-expert opinion:
SES is a paying customer (vs. FH demo which is a test flight with no customer payload aboard).  A delay of a few days beyond NET Jan. 29 won't matter much in the "big picture" (How the Solar System Was Won).  SES-16 would be given priority in a parallel launch campaigns situation.

So IF the satellite has been delivered and is already being processed for launch;

AND IF Zuma launches tonight, as scheduled;

THEN SES-16 might progress directly through its launch campaign as soon as SLC-40 is cleared for another launch, launching before the Falcon Heavy Demo.

There's my deduction chain.  Any flaws?

In light of the above I can see the FH demo flight dropping into February.
In theory with AFTS and no need to fully reconfigure as is the case for a switch to a ULA launcher, they could both launch same day.

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1269
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 281
  • Likes Given: 813
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #31 on: 01/07/2018 08:59 PM »
Is this pretty certain now to fly before the FH demo flight?
Expanding on your thought...

The Falcon Heavy Demo launch from LC-39A is, in essence, now NET simultaneous with the SES-16 launch from SLC-40.

Apparently, "we" don't know if the satellite has even been delivered to the launch site yet?  Would O/ATK or SES announce a successful delivery?  Or does Luxembourg want as little publicity as possible?

That appears to be a (the?) critical piece of missing information.

My non-expert opinion:
SES is a paying customer (vs. FH demo which is a test flight with no customer payload aboard).  A delay of a few days beyond NET Jan. 29 won't matter much in the "big picture" (How the Solar System Was Won).  SES-16 would be given priority in a parallel launch campaigns situation.

So IF the satellite has been delivered and is already being processed for launch;

AND IF Zuma launches tonight, as scheduled;

THEN SES-16 might progress directly through its launch campaign as soon as SLC-40 is cleared for another launch, launching before the Falcon Heavy Demo.

There's my deduction chain.  Any flaws?

In light of the above I can see the FH demo flight dropping into February.
In theory with AFTS and no need to fully reconfigure as is the case for a switch to a ULA launcher, they could both launch same day.

Good point re: hardware and the range.

What about SpaceX personnel?  Are there enough trained staff, at this juncture, to execute two simultaneous, but staggered, countdowns at launch complexes several miles apart?
Support your local planetarium!

Offline Star One

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8478
  • UK
  • Liked: 1381
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #32 on: 01/07/2018 09:45 PM »
Is this pretty certain now to fly before the FH demo flight?
Expanding on your thought...

The Falcon Heavy Demo launch from LC-39A is, in essence, now NET simultaneous with the SES-16 launch from SLC-40.

Apparently, "we" don't know if the satellite has even been delivered to the launch site yet?  Would O/ATK or SES announce a successful delivery?  Or does Luxembourg want as little publicity as possible?

That appears to be a (the?) critical piece of missing information.

My non-expert opinion:
SES is a paying customer (vs. FH demo which is a test flight with no customer payload aboard).  A delay of a few days beyond NET Jan. 29 won't matter much in the "big picture" (How the Solar System Was Won).  SES-16 would be given priority in a parallel launch campaigns situation.

So IF the satellite has been delivered and is already being processed for launch;

AND IF Zuma launches tonight, as scheduled;

THEN SES-16 might progress directly through its launch campaign as soon as SLC-40 is cleared for another launch, launching before the Falcon Heavy Demo.

There's my deduction chain.  Any flaws?

In light of the above I can see the FH demo flight dropping into February.
In theory with AFTS and no need to fully reconfigure as is the case for a switch to a ULA launcher, they could both launch same day.

Good point re: hardware and the range.

What about SpaceX personnel?  Are there enough trained staff, at this juncture, to execute two simultaneous, but staggered, countdowns at launch complexes several miles apart?

Hasnít it been said elsewhere this is not something the company would require of its staff. Especially if thought for a demo flight.

Offline kdhilliard

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 192
  • Kirk
  • Tanstaa, FL
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 560
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #33 on: 01/07/2018 10:05 PM »
In theory with AFTS and no need to fully reconfigure as is the case for a switch to a ULA launcher, they could both launch same day.
AFTS might allow two in one day, but ASDS won't.  Both launches are scheduled for at-sea booster landing, aren't they?

Offline pb2000

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 105
  • Calgary, AB/Mesquite, NV
  • Liked: 68
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #34 on: 01/07/2018 10:19 PM »
In theory with AFTS and no need to fully reconfigure as is the case for a switch to a ULA launcher, they could both launch same day.
AFTS might allow two in one day, but ASDS won't.  Both launches are scheduled for at-sea booster landing, aren't they?
Depnds on what booster it ends up with. They'll want the center core of FH back for examination, but if SES/GovSat ends up with a block 3, SpaceX may not want it back and ditch it.
Launches attended: Worldview-4 (Atlas V 401), Iridium NEXT Flight 1 (Falcon 9 FT)

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1269
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Commonwealth of Virginia
  • Liked: 281
  • Likes Given: 813
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #35 on: 01/07/2018 11:24 PM »
Seeking confirmation re: ASDS.  There is currently one each per coast/range, correct?
Support your local planetarium!

Offline Jarnis

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1096
  • Liked: 552
  • Likes Given: 147
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #36 on: 01/08/2018 12:57 AM »
Seeking confirmation re: ASDS.  There is currently one each per coast/range, correct?

Yes.

Also note that all FH dates are very notional until they have a good static fire in the books. Not a given that it'll all work out on the first try, considering it is a new vehicle.

Online russianhalo117

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3995
  • AR USA / Berlin, DE / Moscow, RF
  • Liked: 810
  • Likes Given: 489
Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : GovSat-1 (SES-16) : NET Jan 30. 2018
« Reply #37 on: 01/08/2018 01:07 AM »
Seeking confirmation re: ASDS.  There is currently one each per coast/range, correct?
Keep in mind that SpaceX may grow the ASDS fleet to increase its launch rate from Florida. This launch will probably play roulette with FH for a launch slot unless they ditch GS-1's booster.

Offline speedevil

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 603
  • Fife
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 265
AFTS might allow two in one day, but ASDS won't.  Both launches are scheduled for at-sea booster landing, aren't they?
Depnds on what booster it ends up with. They'll want the center core of FH back for examination, but if SES/GovSat ends up with a block 3, SpaceX may not want it back and ditch it.

If they really would like it back, I wonder if they think with the recent good aiming they've seen, if the probability of missing by more than a handful of meters is >50%.
Because if it's not, landing two on one ASDS is sort-of-possible.

(assuming the trajectories match so the ASDS can be in one place)

« Last Edit: 01/08/2018 07:21 AM by jacqmans »

Offline RocketLover0119

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 132
  • Space Geek
  • Tampa, Florida
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 92
No update thread so will post this here... Govsat may potentially launch before FH according to SpaceX PAO-

https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaSpace/status/950464308017811457
"The Falcon has landed"

Tags: