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#180
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 16 May, 2015 15:38
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There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by. It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle. The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.
Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.
- Ed Kyle
There have been quite a few flights of Proton with the BSS-702 before today.
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#181
by
edkyle99
on 16 May, 2015 15:48
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There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by. It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle. The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.
Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.
- Ed Kyle
There have been quite a few flights of Proton with the BSS-702 before today.
Oops. You're right, and specific to this satellite, this is the second Boeing 702HP GEM model with the giant mesh L-band reflector to fly on Proton, the previous being SkyTerra 1 in 2010. MexSat 1 is actually SkyTerra 2, rebuilt, according to Gunter.
- Ed Kyle
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#182
by
NovaSilisko
on 16 May, 2015 16:15
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Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb
Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.
Oh boy...
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#183
by
Rebel44
on 16 May, 2015 17:01
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Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb
Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.
Oh boy...
I am sure, that insurance companies are starting to really hate Proton.........
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#184
by
davey142
on 16 May, 2015 17:04
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Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb
Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.
Oh boy...
A component failure or design flaw is one thing, but fundamental problems like corruption, or over-working employees is a much more disappointing and preventable error. Unfortunately, the Russian space program seems to have both corruption and overwork.
Let's hope this is just my cynicism and not some deeper issue that Putin and Rogozin promised to fix years ago.
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#185
by
simonbp
on 16 May, 2015 17:28
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Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb
Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.
Oh boy...
I am sure, that insurance companies are starting to really hate Proton.........
Protons failing left and right is not exactly a new concept (there were reasons they never put a crew in a TK), but it is certainly the most failure-prone commercial launcher right now. Insurance rates will go up, but I'm dubious the needed quality control will too. I can easily imagine ILS effectively collapsing once Long March 5 starts flying.
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#186
by
Lee Jay
on 16 May, 2015 17:35
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If I'm counting right, this puts Proton's failure rate well over 10% since 2010.
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#187
by
Mader Levap
on 16 May, 2015 17:36
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Let's hope this is just my cynicism and not some deeper issue that Putin and Rogozin promised to fix years ago.
How one can hope to fix corruption in space (or any other) industry if leaders themself are corrupted to core? As old saying goes, "fish rots from head down".
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#188
by
ZachS09
on 16 May, 2015 17:58
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Great. First the Progress failure, now a Proton rocket's third stage malfunctioned, dooming MEXSAT 1. What a month it has been.
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#189
by
Antilope7724
on 16 May, 2015 18:21
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Well let's be glad it was just bent metal that can be replaced and nobody was hurt or killed.
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#190
by
Appable
on 16 May, 2015 18:27
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Interfax reporting that searches for the wreckage of the Briz-M and Mexsat have begun. However there's no data on where it crashed yet, and they are hoping to get more data on that.
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/442023Google translation:
Trans-Baikal Territory authorities are gathering information and do not yet have data on the site of the crash of the third stage of "Proton", said Deputy Prime Minister Gennady edge Chupin.
"Conducts a survey of the local population, including in remote villages", - said the deputy prime minister, "Interfax" on Saturday.
Earlier sources said that in the area of the third stage booster rocket "Proton-M", launched on Saturday from Baikonur, there was an emergency situation .
On Saturday, it was reported that is planned for the beginning of June next launch rocket "Proton-M" with the British communications satellite "Inmarsat-3-5F" will be postponed until the reasons of emergency rocket launch May 16.
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#191
by
Antares
on 16 May, 2015 19:24
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(as Antares shows, additional checks on debris does not always guarantee that any debris on the other rockets can be cleared off)
Antares didn't show anything yet, except as I believe Ed correctly interpreted that Aerojet can leak causes that deflect blame.
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#192
by
Zed_Noir
on 16 May, 2015 19:43
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...
I can easily imagine ILS effectively collapsing once Long March 5 starts flying.
Not as long as the current ITAR regulations are in place WRT Chinese LVs..
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#193
by
psionedge
on 16 May, 2015 20:03
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There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by. It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle. The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.
Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.
- Ed Kyle
There have been quite a few flights of Proton with the BSS-702 before today.
Oops. You're right, and specific to this satellite, this is the second Boeing 702HP GEM model with the giant mesh L-band reflector to fly on Proton, the previous being SkyTerra 1 in 2010. MexSat 1 is actually SkyTerra 2, rebuilt, according to Gunter.
- Ed Kyle
Gunter is incorrect here. The Mexsat GEMs were new builds, SkyTerra-2 is in storage while its owner works to come out of bankruptcy.
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#194
by
FinalFrontier
on 16 May, 2015 20:44
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Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb
Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.
Oh boy...
Hate to say it like this because I don't wish ill will on anyone but, more business for spacex/ULA's NGLS/ATK?
That's sort of how I see this, once antares is back and NGLS is flying I just see this as an opportunity for the american launch providers to get alot more international market share than we have ever had before. Would be a great thing, because politically speaking it could potentially help our politicians build a case for Mars easier (on the basis of cheaper LV's). Russia's failings may become America's opportunity. Not at all how you want these things to happen though, this hurts any future cases people may try to make for international Mars missions (Mr. Senator how can we trust Russian hardware it breaks all the time?!?) ect.
I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.
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#195
by
FinalFrontier
on 16 May, 2015 20:47
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#196
by
Ben the Space Brit
on 16 May, 2015 20:56
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I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.
Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.
That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.
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#197
by
Kryten
on 16 May, 2015 21:07
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I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.
Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.
That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.
What about Mitsubishi?
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#198
by
arachnitect
on 16 May, 2015 21:14
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I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.
Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.
That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.
I hate the RD-180 "ban" as much as anybody, but I don't think it's holding LMCLS back. Orb-4 got an Atlas less than 2 weeks after the Antares failure. Congestion at SLC-41 might be an issue. They're already busy and have the crew access tower construction to negotiate as well.
I hope the Russian politicians try to fix the problems, rather than just manage appearances and blame.
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#199
by
baldusi
on 16 May, 2015 22:06
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I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.
Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.
That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.
I hate the RD-180 "ban" as much as anybody, but I don't think it's holding LMCLS back. Orb-4 got an Atlas less than 2 weeks after the Antares failure. Congestion at SLC-41 might be an issue. They're already busy and have the crew access tower construction to negotiate as well.
I hope the Russian politicians try to fix the problems, rather than just manage appearances and blame.
Besides, Morelos is already flying on Atlas V, so no integration cost.
