Poll

How close to the center of the barge will the first stage land?

Failed landing burn, aborted, or other mishap
6 (1.3%)
Landing on water surface at any point from barge
8 (1.8%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but partial or complete vehicle loss
66 (14.8%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but not on center, vehicle intact
209 (47%)
Landings on the center of the barge (center of stage inside center circle)
156 (35.1%)

Total Members Voted: 445


Author Topic: Predict accuracy of upcoming DSCOVR Mission attempted barge landing  (Read 23879 times)

Offline cscott

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

Offline Kabloona

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

When will we see video? The day after the DSCOVR stage sticks its barge landing.

Offline CraigLieb

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voted for 'partially or wholly on the barge, vehicle intact".. not sure how partially on the barge is compatible with vehicle intact, but hey... I like it anyways. Life is a contradiction.
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Online mme

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
According to Hans at the CRS-5 pre-launch presser, if the landing was successful video would be released in a day ... or two.  I imagine the same will hold true for DSCOVR.
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Offline ericspittle

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

When will we see video? The day after the DSCOVR stage sticks its barge landing.
I'm suspecting that this is the answer. SpaceX got nailed in the press for what many outlets called a failure even though the orbital insertion was successful, the docking was successful, and the end result of the landing attempt was the exact same thing that happens to every other first stage. If I were them I wouldn't release footage of the first ASDS attempt either, no matter how much we would all love to know what happened, because of how moronic the average press coverage is. I suspect that the same press will happily laud them for a successful landing though, and then we'll see as many angles as we want.

I do hope that after a bunch of successes they might get brave and show the footage from the CRS-5 landing attempt, by then there won't be much for the press to say.

Offline cscott

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

When will we see video? The day after the DSCOVR stage sticks its barge landing.

I'll take that bet.  I think we'll see footage of the CRS-5 attempt, and it will be released before DSCOVR launches.

I'm not guaranteeing that the CRS-5 footage will include the earth-shattering kaboom.  But I bet descent footage will be released and -- to make the wager interesting -- I'll say that we see at least a glimpse of the ASDS before the clip ends.  (This last part is really iffy, considering darkness and fog and possible loss-of-control, but @coypu76 did say "landing on the ASDS", so I can't claim I'm right unless we actually see some ASDS.)

Offline foltster

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Elon now up to 60% chance of landing on the ship this time.  About 9:30 or so. 

Offline Kabloona

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@coypu76 did say "landing on the ASDS", so I can't claim I'm right unless we actually see some ASDS.)

Is it a landing video if the video doesn't actually show a landing?  ???

Offline Mongo62

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Elon now up to 60% chance of landing on the ship this time.  About 9:30 or so.

From my post on the Open hydraulic schemes thread:

Elon elaborated on the grid fin issue at a recent Q & A, where he states that SpaceX needs "to make sure our hydraulic actuators don't run out of fluid and go hard over".

Offline Carreidas 160

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I think they'll crash again this time, only better :) At least, that will be the most likely outcome. So 3rd option for me!

Offline macpacheco

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I'm taking option 3 since that would be awesome enough. A bull eye landing would be just extra gravy, leave that buzz for the follow on barge landings. BTW, I'm betting the FAA will demand another 3 landings (DSCOVR + two).
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Offline cscott

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@coypu76 did say "landing on the ASDS", so I can't claim I'm right unless we actually see some ASDS.)

Is it a landing video if the video doesn't actually show a landing?  ???

Landing *process*. ;)

Offline Herb Schaltegger

I voted for the third option - partially or wholly on the barge, but with some damage. I expect the unexpected for the first several attempts - one leg over the edge, causing a topple, or offset onto the equipment containers ... something.

But I'd like to be proven incorrect.
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Offline PahTo

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Option 3 due to the fact they flew back to the platform last time, and have (apparently) ID'd why they didn't land intact and are making changes.

Offline llanitedave

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It's interesting how closely the graph of the poll corresponds to the pattern of choices in the Barge Bingo thread!
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Offline Llian Rhydderch

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I'll say inside the circle.

They've already successfully demonstrated all the high-altitude controlled-descent stuff, and the mid-altitude controllability to GNC to the "barge box".  Grasshopper/F9R-Dev1 have demonstrated the low-altitude precision landing capability.

I'm speculating that ocean swell, barge thruster vernier control and potential fog and rain, won't overcome the SpaceX control algorithms and control authority to remain in the circle.
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Offline Vultur

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I voted for center. We know that the stage can get to the ASDS even with the grid-fin hydraulic failure, so absent another mechanical failure, I see no reason why the stage should not stick a dead-center landing.

I voted center for the same reasons (here's hoping!)

Offline the_other_Doug

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I voted for landing intact but not dead center.  I'd love to be proven wrong, though.
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Offline CuddlyRocket

Also my first ever post after years of lurking, L2 is awesome and please be gentle!  8)
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Offline francesco nicoli

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Voted 3: too much unknown unknowns and few known unknowns still. Third time will be the good one.

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